The challenge of the future and the institutionalization of interdisciplinarity: notes on Herman Kahn’s legacy

This article is an attempt to explore Herman Kahn’s foundational contribution to the development of what he called “broad studies”, a combination of futures research and public policy analysis. In Kahn’s view, decision making and policy processes pose two crucial problems that the scholarly research is rarely forced to face: (1) the need to have and operate with a broad, multifaceted vision of phenomena and (2) the issue of coping imaginatively and realistically with future circumstances and conditions that can only vaguely be distinguished in the present. Implied in these two is the need to develop new methods and approaches fitted to the charges imposed by them. The paper discusses Kahn’s work as an integrated solution to these problems: The definition and advocacy of broad and future-oriented studies, his concept on how these studies should be institutionalized in interdisciplinary organizational systems, and the crucial position scenarios and propaedeutic and heuristic methodologies have in this context. A special attention is given to two methodological approaches he developed to cope with these challenges: Scenario Building and the Method of Classes of Variables.When twenty years ago, on July 7, 1983, Herman Kahn died suddenly at age 61, both friends and intellectual adversaries recognized that “the world lost one of its most creative and best minds” [1] and [2]. By that time Herman Kahn was one of the preeminent and best known Futures Studies scholars, a founding father of the field, with extensive and vital contributions in Strategic Studies, an area where he was also considered a founding figure and a leader [3] and [4]. His work was followed all over the world and the directions he traced in the public debate on very sensitive issues of crucial public concern have continued to be unaltered today, twenty years after his unexpected and premature death. Yet in spite of the incessant influence of his arguments and ideas, today his intellectual legacy is still to be accounted for and the breath and depth of his contributions are still to be reviewed and analyzed in a systematic way. This paper is an attempt to explore only one dimensions of this legacy: Kahn’s foundational contribution to the development of what he liked to call “broad studies”, a combination of futures research and public policy analysis.The two decades that have passed since his death allow us today to approach his work undisturbed by the “sound and fury” of the many public debates and controversies he participated in and to focus on some of the deepest and most enduring dimensions of his intellectual contributions. However while doing that, we should keep in mind that for Kahn the public policy process shaping the future and the public debate associated to it were always the focal points and the ultimate ends of his efforts. Indeed, probably the best approach to Kahn’s work is to see it in the light of his continuous concern for the practical relevance of the social research. For him the research process was always action-oriented and its ultimate test was its relevance for policy and social action. As a result, the most promising starting point for any overview of Kahn’s thought and work should be a set of crucial conclusions he reached about the policy making process and decision makers early in his career.     

The legacy of Eleanora Masini: Reflections from Latin America

This article discusses the influence of the Latin American work and school of human and social futures studies. Reference is made to the thought of Eleonora Masini and its cultural and educative implications, in particular the depth of her lessons for the leaders and government officials, in a context of global change and multicultural conflict, are emphasised. Further emphasis is given to the importance of the concept of future vision and the ethical formation to build the formation of futurists.     

Beyond postnormal times: The future of creativity and the creativity of the future

Creativity and imagination are the most important ingredients for coping with post-normal times, according to Sardar. This paper looks at the way creativity itself is being transformed in the West, from the individualistic/atomistic view of Modernity towards a more contextual, collaborative, complex approach. It explores the potential and possibilities for this more participatory creativity to help go beyond the “crisis of the future,” and argues that the centrality of creativity must go beyond the mythology of genius and inspiration to inform philosophy, ethics, and action. Philosophical reflection and the imagination of desirable futures can emerge from a creative ethic that stresses the value of generative interactions and contexts that support creativity.     

The future of leadership: reframing the unknown

Accepting the arguments of Donald Michael's article, this essay focuses on the need to understand patterns of denial and affirmation as they affect efforts at consensus formation. Leadership is presented as an interface role, orchestrating the exposure to light and shadow, between that which can be communicated (to followers) and that which cannot. The challenge for leadership is portrayed as one of navigating through shifting patterns of affirmation and denial. This challenge is represented in terms of four zones ranging from simple consensus, through situations undermined by unwritten rules, to a zone in which neither assertion nor denial is relevant. The latter is seen as more typical of Eastern approaches to governance. It is argued that complementary patterns of affirmation and denial are essential to the processes of sustainable communities.     

The future of the motorcar: Alternative scenarios

In contrast to conventional forecasts usually based on constant cost projections, the author considers the future of the motorcar as depending on dynamic changes in the pattern of costs and values related to private car ownership and use. The social, environmental, material and technological factors most influencing the future cost of motoring are analysed, and desirable policies are examined. The results are projected into two scenarios, high and low, of the future conditions for private motoring. The analysis is focused on the Netherlands, but is generally applicable to other Western European countries.     

保险金遗产化或非遗产化之立法选择.

对于以死亡为保险事故之保险契约未指定受益人时保险金的处理方式有两种:一是将保险金视为被保险人之遗产,由其法定继承人继承,即保险金之遗产化立法例;二是保险金性质不变而仍为保险金,由被保险人之继承人以保险受益人之身分受领,此即保险金之非遗产化立法例。本文认为,因继承法与保险法各自追求之价值目标不同,故应该以保险金之非遗产化立法例为当,如此才能有利于实现保险法的立法意图和有利于保险业的发展,并更能体现被保险人的真实意愿。     

On a historical note: the legacy of Thomas Hodgkin

Physicians in the practice of insurance medicine are exposed to an unbelievable spectrum of pathology. This series of short biographies is intended to give the reader a quick overview of the history of diseases encountered in our everyday practice and to see "the face behind the name." In the first article of this series, I wish to pay homage to one of the "great men of Guy's," Dr. Thomas Hodgkin.     

Transforming frameworks of accountability: The case of water privatization

The U.K. Government's belief in the innate inefficiency of traditional public sector provision of goods and services has inspired a number of initiatives which have resulted in management of public sector enterprises being confronted by an increasingly commercial environment, tighter financial controls, increased competition, and in some cases transfer to the private sector through privatization. This paper is concerned with investigating the ways in which accounting and accounting information has contributed to and shaped processes of organizational change in one area of the public sector, the ten Regional Water Authorities of England and Wales. In the early 1980s, the Water Authorities were subject to pressures from new Government financial controls and performance aims to become more efficient. These pressures intensified when the Government announced its intention to privatize them in 1986, and continued up to 1989 when privatization took effect. Since privatization the Water Authorities have been subject to “yardstick” competition under a new regulatory framework, and comparative judgements by the financial markets. In considering these changes, the paper examines the constitutive role of accounting in articulating changing organizational priorities, and in promoting first a vocabulary of costs and subsequently a vocabulary of profits as languages of organizational motive.     

Low-mobility: The future of transport

Nearly all researchers into the future of global passenger transport assume that both car-ownership and overall vehicular travel will continue to rise. But they also increasingly acknowledge the environmental and resource problems facing vehicular transport, particularly global climate change and oil depletion. In order to meet these challenges, researchers propose a variety of technological solutions, including greatly improved vehicular fuel efficiency, alternative fuels and propulsion systems, and carbon capture and storage. In this paper we question whether these optimistic solutions can be developed and widely deployed in the limited time frame available, and argue instead that not only are ever-rising vehicular mobility levels unlikely to occur, but that the human costs of continuing this approach are also too great. Instead we argue that because transport is a derived demand, we must first articulate a preferred vision of the future, then design an appropriate, sustainable transport system. Finally, we briefly outline what such a low-mobility future transport system would look like, using our own city, Melbourne, Australia, as a case study.     

The Era of finance: Proposals for the future

Finance, the economic activity intermediating between savings and investments, is probably the first to reach the stage of globalization; as a consequence, the financial sector is taking a leading position in modern economic systems. While the world expects from financial efficiency an increasingly positive contribution to welfare, it appears that recent developments of financial leadership in an increasingly deregulated world system, are also acting negatively on world welfare. In many aspects, it can be established that finance is crisis prone, induces deflationary biases and stimulates speculative behaviour: crisis, deflation and speculation are often harmful to the real economy. A set of proposals are made in order to improve world financial stabilization, promote growth and encourage the spirit of enterprise, as a way of enhancing the future contribution of financial activities to world welfare.     

Australia's divided accounting profession: The 1969 merger attempt and its legacy

The Australian accounting environment is dominated by two competing brands – Chartered Accountant (CA) and Certified Practising Accountant (CPA) – which signal that the profession has been unable to achieve full unification. Focussed on 1969, this dual theory-informed, in-depth study examines the first of four unsuccessful attempts to merge the two professional accounting associations from which the two brands originate: The Australian Society of Accountants (the Society) and The Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia (the Institute). Primary data from public archives and oral history interviews, combined with secondary sources, are drawn upon to explain the failure of this proposed merger and to consider its legacy. The complementary theoretical perspectives of “boundary-work” and “institutional work” are applied. Amidst other challenges, corporate collapses during the 1960s precipitated a legitimacy crisis for the profession and raised the prospect of there being sufficient commonality of purpose to enable a merger. While there was overwhelming support from Society members, the merger proposal was defeated by a comprehensive “no” vote from Institute members. This pattern of voting was repeated in three subsequent merger attempts, leading to the persistence of the curious binary structure of the Australian accounting profession and associated ongoing differences and tensions.     

Political images of the future: The Dutch case

The Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy is responsible for supplying, for use in deciding government policy, scientifically sound information on developments which may affect society in the long term. It also draws attention to anticipated anomalies and bottlenecks, defines major policy problems, and indicates alternatives. This article describes the Council's future survey and its use of various normative perceptions discernible in the political system. Six characteristic sociopolitical orientations are identified and the likely consequences of each are depicted, with the goal of stimulating future-oriented policies. Finally, the Dutch approach is compared with the approaches in other surveys of the future.     

The legacy of the Eurozone crisis and how to overcome it

I argue first that the Eurozone crisis has left a legacy of unsustainable government debt levels. These will continue to exert a deflationary dynamics in the Eurozone. Second, I argue that the institutional innovations since the start of the debt crisis fall short of what is needed to solve the design failures of the Eurozone. In addition, they are not sustainable, mainly because they have led to a situation where bureaucratic institutions have been vested with more responsibilities without a concomitant increase in the democratic legitimacy of these institutions.     

The future workplace: Views from the floor

Speculation on the future of work and the nature of the future workplace has come to dominate much academic discourse in recent years. Rarely however has the voice of what might be termed the average skilled employee been heard; those who are still shaping a career and may be most at the mercy of whatever changes occur. This study seeks to fill this gap. Stemming from a 1-year research project at Cranfield School of Management, this paper focuses on data collected from a survey exploring the understanding of current and future organisations, and the nature of current and future leadership. The survey was carried out in 2003 and sampled 469 MBA graduates and a further 340 respondents to a web-based questionnaire. The paper provides an overview of the academic discourse on the future workplace, explores the perceptions and expectations of the sample and draws conclusions regarding significant anticipated trends for the future workplace as seen by those on the shop floor. These centre around increased flexibility and autonomy, but with limited awareness of the nature of leadership skills required to lead such a workforce.     

The Cyprus debacle: what the future holds

This paper analyzes the Cyprus conflict from a realist perspective based on the assumption that it has implications for regional and global security. At the end of the millennium, the UN negotiations for Cyprus have been resumed, the USA has become more actively involved and the European Union has decided to open accession negotiations with Greek Cypriots. The paper proposes first that the futures of Cyprus are going to be determined by the strategic interests of the actors involved and, second, that unification of the island is becoming a more distant possibility.     

Pushing the future back: The impact of policy uncertainty on the market pricing of future earnings

We examine whether policy uncertainty triggered by presidential elections pushes the future back by reducing the extent to which current prices reflect information about future earnings. We estimate future earnings response coefficients (FERCs) for the years 1975–2013, a period that covers ten presidential elections. We find that FERCs are significantly lower (by 11.8%) during presidential election years compared to other years. Additional analyses using pseudo election years, ex‐ante polls, contract prices from the Iowa Electronic Political Market, and cross‐sectional firm characteristics provide corroborating evidence that the lower FERCs during election years are related to policy uncertainty. We also investigate potential explanations for the lower FERCs during election years. We find that the lower FERCs relate to forecasting difficulty rather than to changes in the discount rate or in the amount of noise trading. Finally, we find that market prices move toward future earnings to a greater degree during presidential election years compared with other years once the policy uncertainty is resolved. A trading strategy based on this drift yields significant abnormal returns. Overall, we contribute to the literature by providing the first empirical evidence that shocks to policy uncertainty influence the pricing of earnings information.     

The future of the elderly

Between now and the 1990s the population of most Western European countries will, on present fertility and mortality rates, show little increase. However, the proportion aged 65 or more will increase; this will be almost entirely due to the 20–25% increase in the numbers aged 75 or more. At the same time there will be pressure to lower the retirement age so as to avoid unemployment among the young. Schemes to encourage early retirement have had little success; without considerable economic growth the conflict between the interests of the elderly and the young will inevitably become more acute.     

The forfeit of the future

Throughout history, perceptions and experiences in the present have shaped different images of the future. Today, we are living in an increasingly complex world, one which has brought as much consternation as hope. Technology-aided exploitation of the natural environment has made us fearful of irreversible damage to the ecosystem, generating bleak predictions for human survival. As the pace of economic, political, and social change increases, confounding the process of prediction, how do such changes shape our present visions of the future, and how do they contrast with those of previous eras? This article shows how optimistic and pessimistic images of the future evolved from presumptions of unchanging order and apocalyptic destinies to techologically inspired Utopian visions, and how such images now reflect our present anxieties.