The Taylor rules and macroeconomic fluctuation in China: 1994–2006

The correlation and controllability of money supply as the intermediate object of monetary policy is gradually weakening, the argument that interest rate substitutes the money supply for the alternative object is hotly discussed. According to the Taylor rule and its extensions, this paper has a positive analysis on the efficiency of Taylor-type rules in China through historical analysis, policy reaction function approach and co-integration technology of time series analysis. This paper draws a conclusion that Taylor rule is unstable in China, and less correlation can be found between interest rate and the output gap, and the central bank focus on the inflation target rather than economic growth. Therefore, the central bank should abide by the simple rule of inflation targeting.     

Assessing the role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in China’s macroeconomic fluctuation

The combination of a high growth rate and low information has been observed since the late 1990s in the Chinese economy. Should the fact be considered as a result of greatly improved supply capability or should the fact reflect the improvement in the government’s aggregate demand management? In this paper, we try to assess the role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in China’s macroeconomic fluctuation. We use a bivariate structural VAR model to investigate macroeconomic dynamics for China within the aggregate-demand and aggregate-supply framework, using the quarterly data in the period of 1996Q1–2005Q4. Our principal findings are following: (1) China’s high growth shall be associated more with greatly improved supply capability, especially after its WTO entrance. The expansionary aggregate demand policies may have limited effects to raise the growth rate in the post-1996 in China. This result suggests that we need a more pro-growth policy stance in order to maintain a high and stable growth. (2) The low inflation in that period is driven primarily by weak aggregate demand rather than supply factors.     

The demand for broad money in Norway, 1969–1993

Cointegration analysis is applied to investigate the long run relationships between money, prices, and wages in Norway. Broad money is determined endogenously, and monetary balances were exposed to large shocks during the period of financial deregulation in the midst of the 1980s. In the long run these shocks are absorbed, and a long run demand for money relationship is identified in which real money is determined by real income, the relative price on financial assets (the yield spread) and the relative price on goods (the own real interest rate). Money adjusts dynamically to changes in the exchange rate and private wealth. Domestic price inflation is affected by improted inflation including currency depreciation (a pass through effect), domestic cost pressure (unit labour costs), and excess demand in the product market (output gap effect).This paper was presented at the workshop Money Demand in Europe, at the Humboldt University in Berlin, October 10–11, 1997. Thanks to Erik, Biørn, Neil R. Ericsson and Grayham Mizon for their comments on previous versions of the paper and to two anonymous referees and the editors for helpful suggestions.     

The 2007–2009 financial crisis: changing market dynamics and the impact of credit supply and aggregate demand sensitivity

This article singles out the determinants of changes in US firms’ systematic risk and idiosyncratic return induced by the 2007–2009 financial crisis. After establishing that systematic risk changes during the crisis, the results show that higher operational and financial leverage coincide with an increase in systematic risk, while high cash availability is associated with a decrease in systematic risk. The crisis-induced idiosyncratic return worsens with increasing financial leverage, higher sensitivity to aggregate demand shocks and banking sector problems, and lower operational leverage. Additional results show that the aforementioned variables have economically large effects on firm performance during the crisis.     

On the relationship among efficiency,capitalization and risk: does management matter in local banking market?

By employing a Granger causality methodology in a panel data framework, this article explores the relationship among efficiency, capitalization and credit risk within the local Italian banking system. Focusing the attention on cooperative banks, we specifically test whether managers take more risks in highly concentrated markets (i.e. monopoly) than in partially competitive markets (i.e. duopoly). The evidence shows that in more concentrated markets, management efficiency generates a decrease in risk-taking (rejecting the bad management hypothesis) with respect to the partially competitive markets. Results are consistent with the idea that banks with less local competition are able to increase their profits by indulging more freely in rent-seeking behaviour, minimizing their risk-taking and, consequently, improving the quality of their assets through additional screening processes. The financial crisis does not seem to affect the conduct of management in terms of bank investment decisions and risk-taking. A series of robustness tests generally confirms our findings.     

US money supply and global business cycles: 1979–2009

This article investigates the effects of the US money supply shock on global business cycles by employing a global vector autoregressive model containing 26 economies over the period from 1979Q2 to 2009Q4. The US money supply is incorporated as an endogenous variable for the US and a global factor for other economies. When a positive US money supply shock hits the global economy, developed economies (such as the US, Euro area and the UK) will have neither real output decline nor inflation pressure, while China and some other developing countries are going to have a significant decline of real GDP. The international spillover of the liquidity effect exists. The global effects of quantitative easing are discussed as well.     

Reserve requirement, reserve requirement tax and money control in China: 1984–2007

In recent years, the People’s Bank of China (PBC) has carried out monetary policy by means of reserve requirement frequently in an effort to hedge the excess liquidity in the banking system. But just like other government taxes, reserve requirement maybe have an optimal required reserve rate (RRR). When the RRR have been raised to the optimal level, the effect of reserve requirement policy in money control and liquidity sterilization should also be withered due to the loss of the “tax base”. Therefore, we establish a theoretical model and analysis framework and make the corresponding econometric test and empirical analysis. The main conclusions are as follows: The optimal RRR in China at present is about 23%. If the RRR is further raised above 23%, the monetary authority should adjust the deposit and loan interest rates, interest margins between deposits and loans and the deposit reserve requirement rate to expand the using scope of the reserve requirement policy. __________ Translated from Jingji Yanjiu 经济研究 (Economic Research Journal), 2008, (10): 37–51     

Functional distribution of income,aggregate demand,and economic growth in the Chinese economy, 1978–2007

This paper seeks to analyse the relationship between the functional distribution of income, aggregate demand and growth in the Chinese reform economy. For this purpose, the Bhaduri-Marglin Model is used to indicate the theoretical possibility of both profit-led and wage-led growth regimes. Previously, the principal literature on the evolution of factor shares in China was reviewed. The statistical series for the period 1978–2007 are reconstructed to carry out our analysis of the relations between capital share and investment, on one hand, and labour share and consumption, on the other. Supported by empirical analysis and the model estimations, it is argued that Chinese growth has been profit-driven. Finally, the implications are presented concerning Chinese economic prospects.     

Easy grading practices and supply–demand factors: evidence from Italy

In this article, we investigate how heterogeneity in grading standards across university degree courses is related to supply and demand factors. Using a sample of almost 26,000 students enrolled at an Italian University, we document how grades vary significantly across degrees. After controlling for student characteristics, class-size, classmate quality and degree fixed effects, it emerges that students obtain better grades and are less likely to drop-out when their degree course experiences an excess of supply. We adopt an instrumental variable strategy to account for endogeneity problems and instrument the excess of supply using the total number of universities offering each degree course. Our two-stage least squares (TSLS) estimates confirm that the teaching staff on degree courses facing low demand tend to set lower academic standards with the result that their students obtain better grades and have a lower probability of dropping out than they might otherwise. Similar results are obtained using a control function approach.     

Industrial invention: a supply and demand model for the UK, 1961–1989

A supply and demand model of industrial invention is presented paying particular attention to the impact of past advances on present advances in knowledge. The model is estimated using a recent span of UK data: a good fitting specification is found, which passes a battery of diagnostic tests, and possesses sensible long-run properties and an interpretable lag structure. The specific results found should be of potential interest to governments wishing to encourage the flow of inventions by fiscal means.     

Modelling of narrow money demand in Australia: an ARDL cointegration approach, 1970–2009

Using annual data for the period 1970?C2009, this paper deploys the ARDL cointegration approach to determine whether there exists an economically meaningful, stable narrow money demand relationship in Australia. The statistical results suggest the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between real narrow money balances, real income, a representative domestic interest rate (e.g., the yield on Australian government short-term bonds) and the nominal effective exchange rate of the Australian dollar. The statistical tests suggest no significant instability in the narrow money demand relationship despite financial deregulation and innovation in Australia since the early 1980s. In contrast, the paper reports statistical results which suggest no meaningful, stable broad money demand relationship in Australia over the sample period.     

Economic growth and growth linkages in China 1994–2003

This paper investigates to what extent income growth in the Chinese provinces is linked to growth and income levels in neighboring provinces. We find that the rate of income growth in a province is positively related to income and growth in neighboring provinces. However, we find no evidence of such positive interdependence between growth in rich coastal provinces and their immediate inland neighbors. This suggests that there has been little synchronization in economic growth rates between these regions, and/or that the immediate hinterland of the coastal growth centers might have been bypassed as China's manufacturing sector has migrated westward.     

Long-run money demand function in Argentina during 1935–1962: evidence from cointegration and error correction models

This paper provides a study of Argentina's money demand function during 1935–62 and 1946–62. These priods not only involved several important changes in Argentina's economy and banking system but also included high and volatile inflation. Using cointegration tests and error correction moderlling, results shows that even in periods of large variability there exists a stationary long-run demand function for real M1 and real M2 in Argentina. Error Correction models show that there is biddirectional causality between real money stock (M1 and M2) and the rate of inflation in both periods. Real income is found to be exogenous in all relationships. Thus results presented in this paper provide merit to Cagan's form of money demand function during high inflation periods.     

The 100% money proposal and its implications for banking: the Currie–Fisher approach versus the Chicago Plan approach

The literature on the 100% money proposal often reveals some confusion when it comes to its implications for the banking sphere. We argue that this can be partly explained by a failure to have distinguished between two divergent approaches to the proposal: the “Currie–Fisher” (or “transaction”) approach, on the one hand, which would preserve banking; and the “Chicago Plan” (or “liquidity”) approach, on the other hand, which would abolish banking. This division among 100% money proponents stemmed, in particular, from different definitions of money, and different explanations of monetary instability. The present paper attempts to clarify this divergence of views.     

Household income mobility in rural China: 1989–2006

This article analyzes household income mobility in rural China between 1989 and 2006. The results indicate that incomes in rural China are highly mobile. The high degree of rank and quantity mobility implies re-ranking and mean convergence in income distribution, but the disparity between them also enlarged with leveling-up and Gini divergence brought about by economic growth. In addition, there exists considerable transitorily poor and rich in positional mobility. Though, transitory movement provides an opportunity for both poor and rich and decreases long-term inequality, it also causes considerable income fluctuations and economic insecurity. Moreover, the equalizing effect of income mobility on income inequality is weakening.     

Light fuel demand and public policies in Brazil, 2003–2013

The main objective of this article is to evaluate determinants of demand for light fuels in Brazil between 2003 and 2013. Through a vector autoregression analysis, an effort was made to identify and quantify the impact of different economic variables and public policy measures adopted during this period on the surprising increase in energy consumption by Brazil’s light-vehicle fleet. The results suggest that demand for energy by the light-vehicle fleet was influenced by an increase in income, by a decrease in fuel prices associated with a policy designed to prevent increases in the price of gasoline from pushing the inflation rate up, by a higher availability of credit for buying vehicles, and by a drop in the real price of those goods, with emphasis on countercyclical measures to waive the tax on industrialized products levied on new vehicles during economic downturns in the automotive industry.     

Granger causality tests among openness to international trade,human capital accumulation and economic growth in China: 1952–1999

Abstract

This study examines Granger causality among openness to international trade, human capital accumulation and economic growth in China using time series data over the period from 1952 to 1999 and a sub-period, i.e. a period from 1978 to 1999. For the 1952–1999 period, economic growth is found to Granger cause human capital accumulation and not vice versa. For the 1978–1999 period, economic growth and openness to international trade, economic growth and human capital accumulation, and human capital accumulation and openness to international trade are found to have bidirectional Granger causality, respectively. Thus, there is a dynamic relationship among openness to international trade, human capital accumulation and economic growth. The experience of economic reform in China could be an example to other developing countries.     

Population dividend and economic growth in China, 1978–2018

ABSTRACT

China witnessed important demographic transitions during the past 40 years. The significant decline in fertility rate, as a result of both policy change and economic factors, generated the so-called population dividends – rising proportion of working age population – during the past several decades. This paper demonstrates important channels through which broadly defined population dividends contribute to economic growth in China, by magnifying roles of capital, by improving labor quality, alongside increases in labor supply, and by strengthening labor mobility. As population aging now takes over from population dividends as the main demographic trend, it is possible for China to continue its strong growth by focusing on both the traditional growth factors, such as further reducing the proportion of agricultural workers, and new growth factors, such as further improving productivity by strengthening human capital and weakening institutional obstacles.     

Economic Growth and The Expanding Export Sector: China 1952–1985

In this paper Granger's test is employed to examine the causal relationship between the size of the export sector and national income per capita (as well as their respective growth rates) for China for the period 1952–1985. Our empirical results favour a bi-directional causal sequence between these two variables. However, these findings disappear when a similar test is used for the sub-period 1952–1978. The difference in results between these two sample periods points to a change in causal relation after 1978 which coincides with the adoption of an “outward looking” strategy by the Chinese government in that same year. [124]