我国体育运动伤残风险及其防范研究——基于2007年-2010年优秀运动员伤残互助保险索赔数据

收集2007年～2010年我国优秀运动员体育运动伤残5657组案例，采用数理统计法和比较分析法，构造并计算运动伤残率、重伤率和死亡率指标，以此刻画我国体育运动伤残风险，并将其与其他行业伤残状况相比较。结果表明：我国体育运动伤残风险呈现“两低一高”特征：低伤残率、低死亡率、高重伤率；各运动项目伤残风险存在较大差异：在体育...     

Androgen-androgenic steroids, the athlete, and mortality

Use of performance-enhancing substances is widespread among men and women athletes and body builders, professional or amateur, adolescent or adult. Many of these substances are illegal or have adverse effects. This article describes the action and effects of androgenic and growth hormones, their legality, their potential for abuse, and their impact on mortality.     

锻炼心理学实验设计与策略研究

本文对锻炼心理学内涵和研究方法进行分析,运用锻炼坚持性运动心理学研究策略、样本含量实验设计方法显示,身体活动与心理健康之间存在着明显的因果关系。因此,选择一次性锻炼还是长期锻炼、选择状态变量还是特质变量、运动处方的制定、锻炼的适度原则、被试者本身特征、控制组和控制条件的选择。研究认为,锻炼后的心理效应受多种因素影响,这些因素在未来的研究中应引起研究者的高度重视。     

How the best of the best get better and better

What is the real key to elite performance? According to sports psychologist turned executive coach Graham Jones, star athletes and businesspeople share one defining trait: mental toughness. People who become champions aren't necessarily more gifted than others; they're just masters at managing pressure, meticulously tackling goals, and driving themselves to stay ahead of the competition. Jones, who has advised Olympic medalists and Fortune 500 executives, sees many parallels between the arenas of business and sports, especially in the behavior of people who rise to the very top. These stars have learned to love pressure because it spurs them to achieve. Inner-focused and self-directed, they concentrate on their own excellence and forget the rest. They don't get distracted by others' victories or failures--or even by a personal tragedy off the field of competition. Like Darren Clarke, the golfer who inspired his team to a Ryder Cup victory shortly after the death of his beloved wife, elite performers are masters of compartmentalization. Superstars rebound from defeats more easily, Jones observes, because they don't engage in self-flagellation. One of the keys to their success is a relentless focus on the long-term and the careful planning of short-term goals that will help them attain major milestones. Competition doesn't daunt elite performers; they just use it to challenge themselves--and they never stop striving. Even after becoming benchmarks in their fields, stars keep their edge by reinventing themselves. Star business people and athletes also recognize the importance of celebrating their wins. It's not just the emotional reward that's important, however: The very best performers also analyze the factors underpinning their success. That helps them build their expertise and their confidence.     

The making of a corporate athlete

Management theorists have long sought to identify precisely what makes some people flourish under pressure and others fold. But they have come up with only partial answers: rich material rewards, the right culture, management by objectives. The problem with most approaches is that they deal with people only from the neck up, connecting high performance primarily with cognitive capacity. Authors Loehr and Schwartz argue that a successful approach to sustained high performance must consider the person as a whole. Executives are, in effect, "corporate athletes." If they are to perform at high levels over the long haul, they must train in the systematic, multilevel way that athletes do. Rooted in two decades of work with world-class atheletes, the integrated theory of performance management addresses the body, the emotions, the mind, and the spirit through a model the authors call the performance pyramid. At its foundation is physical well-being. Above that rest emotional health, then mental acuity, and, finally, a spiritual purpose. Each level profoundly influences the others, and all must be addressed together to avoid compromising performance. Rigorous exercise, for instance, can produce a sense of emotional well-being, clearing the way for peak mental performance. Rituals that promote oscillation--the rhythmic expenditure and recovery of energy-link the levels of the pyramid and lead to the ideal performance state. The authors offer case studies of executives who have used the model to increase professional performance and improve the quality of their lives. In a corporate environment that is changing at warp speed, performing consistently at high levels is more necessary than ever. Companies can't afford to address employees' cognitive capacities while ignoring their physical, emotional, and spiritual well-being.     

Wealth portfolios and elite professional athletes

Defined contribution pension plans typically rely on some type of lifecycle allocation investment strategy. This approach has recently been shown to be sub-optimal due to the portfolio size effect. The terminal wealth of individuals with steadily increasing earnings over time is significantly less when using a lifecycle strategy compared with a simple contrarian approach. The adverse effect of an inappropriate asset allocation strategy for investors with unorthodox earnings profiles, such as for professional athletes, can be greatly magnified. We demonstrate that strategies that exploit the portfolio size effect vastly dominates terminal wealth earned using lifecycle strategies for individuals who experience unorthodox earning profiles, particularly those generating high investable incomes early in life. While the lifecycle strategy contains some attractive features relating to risk aversion and diminishing utility from wealth, we demonstrate that for unorthodox earnings profiles the case for taking advantage of the portfolio size effect is particularly strong.     

The Effective Tax Burden of Companies and of Highly Skilled Manpower: Tax Policy Strategies in a Globalised Economy*

Company taxes and taxes on highly skilled labour both influence the attractiveness of a particular region as a location for investment. We measure the effective tax burden on capital investment and on highly qualified labour in 33 locations across Europe and the United States. We then correlate both types of tax burden in order to study the different tax policy strategies applied in different countries. We find that effective tax rates on companies and on highly skilled employees are closely correlated for a number of countries. Ireland and most new EU Member States impose relatively lower taxes on capital investment than on highly skilled manpower. Conversely, in the US, companies are taxed heavily but the effective tax rate on highly skilled employees is moderate.     

Range-Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models

We propose using the price range in the estimation of stochastic volatility models. We show theoretically, numerically, and empirically that range-based volatility proxies are not only highly efficient, but also approximately Gaussian and robust to microstructure noise. Hence range-based Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimation produces highly efficient estimates of stochastic volatility models and extractions of latent volatility. We use our method to examine the dynamics of daily exchange rate volatility and find the evidence points strongly toward two-factor models with one highly persistent factor and one quickly mean-reverting factor.     

Analysts’ earnings forecasting behavior surrounding uncertain regulatory events: evidence from the Tax Reform Act of 1986

This study examines analysts’ forecasting behaviour in the presence of significant tax policy uncertainty. The Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA86) was preceded by a lengthy debate, allowing us to investigate how tax policy uncertainty evolves over time. Our results are generally consistent with the intuition that uncertainty precedes the enactment of a proposed tax law while complexity manifests afterwards. Using the repeal of the investment tax credit to identify highly impacted firms, we find that the onset of disagreement among analysts during the debate occurred sooner for highly impacted firms than other firms. We also find that disagreement among analysts was concentrated among highly impacted firms before and after enactment. Given that our sample period precedes Regulation Fair Disclosure, our evidence suggests that analysts relied on private information from management to resolve the uncertainty associated with TRA86 but only for highly impacted firms.     

Highly Valued Equity and Discretionary Accruals

Abstract:  Overvalued equity provides a strong incentive for managers to report earnings that do not disappoint the market (  Jensen, 2005 ). We find that this can be extended to highly valued equity more generally. In the year following the classification as highly valued and compared to firms with less extreme valuations, highly valued firms have significantly higher discretionary accruals and exhibit a more pronounced positive association between discretionary accruals and proxies for the likelihood of failing to meet earnings targets. These findings are consistent with the use of discretionary accruals to manage earnings in support of extreme valuation. Because highly valued equity will likely result in CEOs with valuable stock and stock option portfolios, we test whether and show that the overvalued equity incentive is incremental to a CEO's equity portfolio incentive. One implication is that directors and audit committees should be especially on guard for possible earnings management when a firm has extremely high valuation multiples and when the CEO has a lot of equity at risk.     

CEO overconfidence and bank loan contracting

In this paper, we examine the effect of managerial overconfidence on bank loan spreads. Our theoretical model and empirical results support that firms with highly overconfident CEOs have lower loan spreads and that the reducing effect of these CEOs on the spread is more pronounced when the loan contracts have collateral or covenants. Unlike firms with highly overconfident CEOs, firms with moderately overconfident CEOs do not receive lower loan spreads. We perform various tests to alleviate the concerns about endogeneity, and the results are robust. The results are consistent with the idea that highly overconfident CEOs are more willing to pledge collateral and accept covenants in exchange for a reduction in their loan rate.     

Strategic orientation,organisational structure,and the associated effects on performance

The paper presents an investigation of the structural characteristics of firms' strategic orientation (as conceptualised by Miles and Snow (1978)). The associated relationships to profitability and perceived market share are studied in financial services firms, specifically in credit unions. The author finds that most firms have a mixed structural form, with fewer firms being either highly structured or lowly structured. Defenders are more likely than expected to be of mixed structural form and less likely to be highly structured. Prospectors are more likely than expected to be highly structured. Analysers are more likely than expected to be highly structured. Reactors show little variation from the expected distribution. No interaction of structure and strategy is evident on either share or profits. The results do indicate that strategic orientation has an influence on perceived market share, but not profitability. Reactors are shown to have significantly smaller market shares than the Prospectors, Analysers, and Defenders. Also, Defenders are shown to have smaller shares than Prospectors. On the other hand, structural form is shown to have an influence on profitability. The less structured firms are shown to be more profitable than either the highly structured or mixed structure firms. It appears, at least in this sample, that organisational structure is more relevant to profitability, while organisational strategy is more relevant to market share.     

Liquidity and Liquidation: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts

This study provides evidence that highly leveraged owner-managed properties liquidated assets during the commercial real estate decline of the late 1980s, and that this provided buying opportunities for better capitalized buyers. The analysis documents significant financial distress costs for highly leveraged firms during an industry-wide downturn and shows that these costs are particularly large for owner-managed firms.     

Applied Nonparametric Regression Techniques: Estimating Prepayments on Fixed-Rate Mortgage-Backed Securities

We assess nonparametric kernel-density regression as a technique for estimating mortgage loan prepayments—one of the key components in pricing highly volatile mortgage-backed securities and their derivatives. The highly nonlinear and so-called irrational behavior of the prepayment function lends itself well to an estimator that is free of both functional and distributional assumptions. The technique is shown to exhibit superior out-of-sample predictive ability compared to both proportional-hazards and proprietary-practitioner models. Moreover, the best kernel model provides this improved predictive power utilizing a more parsimonious specification in terms of both data and covariates. We conclude that the technique may prove useful in other financial modeling applications, such as default modeling, and other derivative pricing problems where highly nonlinear relationships and optionality exist.     

资源型城市信贷结构调整优化的难点及对策--以甘肃省金昌市为例

资源型城市高度依赖于资源禀赋,单一的经济结构致使信贷高度集中,随着资源型城市经济结构的调整,信贷结构也面临优化调整的选择。本文以金昌市为例,分析资源型城市优化信贷结构的特点,探讨信贷结构优化的对策。     

信托公司集约发展模式研究

我国信托公司现有的发展模式片面追求信托资产规模,盲目追求热点业务,没有形成核心业务。信托公司小型金融机构的先天特征要求信托公司必须依托集约发展。信托公司应从发展战略高度重视集约发展理念,拓展高净值客户群体,优化渠道建设,创造性地使用信息技术,保持信托业持续高效发展,最终实现科学的集约化发展模式。     

Rating agencies in the face of regulation

This paper develops a theoretical framework to shed light on variation in credit rating standards over time and across asset classes. Ratings issued by credit rating agencies serve a dual role: they provide information to investors and are used to regulate institutional investors. We show that introducing rating-contingent regulation that favors highly rated securities may increase or decrease rating informativeness, but unambiguously increases the volume of highly rated securities. If the regulatory advantage of highly rated securities is sufficiently large, delegated information acquisition is unsustainable, since the rating agency prefers to facilitate regulatory arbitrage by inflating ratings. Our model relates rating informativeness to the quality distribution of issuers, the complexity of assets, and issuers' outside options. We reconcile our results with the existing empirical literature and highlight new, testable implications, such as repercussions of the Dodd-Frank Act.     

中国国际收支与货币供给关联性的实证分析:1996～2007

现阶段中国国际收支影响货币供给的传导机制为:货币需求机制和汇率安排机制。前者最终通过国际储备表现出来,而国际储备又通过"汇率安排途径"影响基础货币,最终影响货币供给量。实证分析结果表明:从静态考察,外汇储备与货币供给、外汇占款与基础货币呈高度正向关联性;从动态考察,随着外汇储备和外汇占款的增加,两者分别对货币供给和基础货币的作用效力不断增大。基于此,在汇率稳定目标下,要减轻国际收支对货币供给的不适宜冲击,应主要从平衡国际收支和推进外汇储备管理体制改革着手,并兼顾国际收支失衡对货币供给扩张和收缩两方面的影响。     

Immediate Disclosure or Secrecy? The Release of Information in Experimental Asset Markets

This paper reports the results of experimental asset markets designed to investigate how the public disclosure of uncertain information affects market and individual outcomes. In some markets, no information is released as trading starts, and in others, an imperfect pre‐announcement is disclosed. The reliability of the pre‐announcement varies across markets. Our data indicate under‐reaction to a pre‐announcement that is highly reliable and over‐reaction to one with much lower reliability. Price volatility is higher and allocational efficiency is lower with a pre‐announcement that reflects substantial uncertainty. Furthermore, when the reliability of the pre‐announcement is low, traders extract a smaller proportion of the total attainable profit. Thus, in a highly uncertain environment better outcomes may result when information is withheld. These results have important policy implications regarding the disclosure of information by the Federal Reserve. In a highly uncertain environment, better outcomes may actually result with less information.     

IPO withdrawals: Are corporate governance and VC characteristics the guiding light in the rough sea of volatile markets?

More than 25% of all US firms that file for an IPO withdraw their offering from registration. Our study, which includes 3438 US domestic first-time IPO filings between 1997 and 2014, examines whether in times of high market volatility, high-quality corporate governance and VC backing may serve as a signal and thus reduce the withdrawal probability. Our results from an interaction term analysis support the view that corporate governance characteristics, but not the VC backing per se, tend to provide signals in highly volatile markets. In addition, our paper delves into the effect of VC characteristics. Local VCs tend to reduce the withdrawal probability. The same holds for VC syndication, particularly in highly volatile markets. Finally, our findings lend support to the conclusion that in highly volatile environments, reputable VCs tend to follow the dual-track strategy or postpone the IPO of their portfolio firms more often than in less volatile markets.