跳跃风险、经济不确定性指数及其波动与趋势特质分析

方差风险溢价作为度量经济不确定性的代理变量,对未来多期超额收益率具有显著的预测能力.将方差风险溢价拆分为趋势项和波动项,发现两者的作用区间存在显著差异:短期内波动项起主导作用,中长期内则趋势项起主导作用.拆分后整体的预测效果有显著提升.在分析趋势项和波动项的性质时,引入了正负跳跃风险作为控制变量.研究发现,正负跳跃风险的预测能力存在显著的非对称性,负跳跃风险的预测能力较强,而正跳跃风险的预测能力较弱.     

股权溢价之谜

作为金融市场上的异象之一,股权溢价之谜自被提出之时就引起了金融经济学术界的广泛关注,大量的研究人员试 图以不同的方式对传统模型进行修正来解释股权溢价之谜。本文将试图从古典经济学和行为金融学两个方面对理论学界对 股权溢价之谜的解释进行综述。     

动态风险厌恶、随机贴现因子与资产定价

本文在Campbell and Cochrane(1998)和Brandt and Wang(2001)的研究基础之上利用随机贴现因子对包含习惯的效用函数中的风险厌恶进行了动态一般化分析，并探讨了动态风险厌恶、随机贴现因子、资产定价以及消费增长等因素之间的一般化关系。这种一般化关系有助于解释“股权溢价之谜”(Equity Premium Puzzle)等不合理现象的存在。     

防范我国股票市场的溢价风险

在国际资本市场中,中国股票常常被视为“避难所”性质的投资工具,就是说我国股票应具较高的保值能力。然而回顾中国股票近年来的表现,“避难所”之说在我们看来似乎难以成立。在今年欧美股市江河日下的境况下,代表性最广泛的MSCI中国指数年初到现在也下降了31.6%。尽管中国企业盈利水平有其大陆型经济的“防导性”及“独立性”,但中国股票仍难以脱离环球资本市场的整体走势,且相对于国际资本市场而言,属于具有更高价格风险的投资类别。究其原因,中国股票引起内在特性而需付出较高的风险溢价。第一,以市值计算,中国股市在全球资本市场中,其…     

股权风险溢价与资产配置关系浅析

随着资产配置这一概念在全球日益深入人心,相应的资产配置研究已成为全球资产管理机构及研究机构的主流研究方向。从某种意义上来说,股权风险溢价之所以受到如此重视,是因为股权风险溢价的水平在很大程度上主导了投资者资产配置的结构与方向。     

“股票溢价之谜”理论述评

传统的跨期优化模型难以解释近一百年来美国股市的实际数据。理论模型的数值模拟和实际数据间的差距在理论上有着各种不同的解释 ,许多研究工作从这些角度出发对理论模型做出了相应改进和发展 ,试图提高模型模拟的准确性。但实证表明 ,这些研究成果只能部分解释模型和实际数据的差距 ,而难以从根本上解释“股票溢价之谜”。     

短视损失厌恶的行为金融理论简评

短视损失厌恶是一种普遍的、稳定存在的投资者行为特征。它对于资产定价和投资决策具有不可忽视的甚至决定性的影响。其成功解释了股权溢价之谜等资本市场中的问题。作为一种新兴的行为金融学理论,它具有重要的理论价值和广阔的发展前景,并得到了理论界和实务界越来越多的关注,成为研究的热点以及行为金融的重要理论之一。     

风险溢价、预期损失与预测贷款损失准备金

在信贷市场完全信息的假设下,以贷款风险溢价为基础计提的贷款损失准备金能够完全覆盖贷款预期损失.而在经济或行业处于繁荣或上升时期,银行扩张贷款总量、增加长期贷款、放松贷款标准的行为,实际上低估了贷款预期损失.应用马尔科夫链预测理论构建的预测贷款准备金模型,克服了预期现金流折现法、动态准备金法和压力测试准备金法存在的实施难度大、监管制约等缺陷,能够保持银行经营的稳定以及客观地反映盈利状况,可以作为改革贷款准备金政策的参考.     

中国资本市场股权溢价的实证分析

基于我国资本市场的历史数据进行实证分析,验证了我国A股市场存在股权溢价且呈现高波动性.并采用行为金融学理论从投资主体、市场、制度三方面分析了我国股权溢价及其高波动性的原因.     

An Experimental Study of Risk Aversion in Decision-making Under Uncertainty

This paper presents the findings of an experimental study of risk aversion in decision making under uncertainty. When presented with a series of gambles, subjects determined the certainty-equivalent wealth of each gamble. Risk aversion was measured by the Markowitz risk premium of the decision. The fixed effects regression model indicates the significant influence of the first three moments of a probability distribution in determining the risk premium. These results lend support to the rules of mean-variance and third-degree stochastic dominance. The extent of influence is also affected by the individual’s age, but not by gender, wealth or schooling.     

A Definition of Uncertainty Aversion

A definition of uncertainty or ambiguity aversion is proposed. It is argued that the definition is well-suited to modelling within the Savage (as opposed to Anscombe and Aumann) domain of acts. The defined property of uncertainty aversion has intuitive empirical content, behaves well in specific models of preference (multiple-priors and Choquet expected utility) and is tractable. Tractability is established through use of a novel notion of differentiability for utility functions, called eventwise differentiability.     

Risk Aversion, Wealth and International Capital Flows

This paper models capital flows in a rich–poor, two-country, two-asset, dual-risk economy with decreasing absolute risk aversion. The first risk is asset-specific. The second is political and dependent; i.e., related to particular asset outcomes. In this framework, the role of wealth in determining asset preferences is demonstrated, and the conditions for diversification are derived. The wealth effect and diversification conditions are applied to explain ongoing two-way capital flows in general as well as the apparent paradox of domestic capital flight with simultaneous inflows of foreign capital.     

Risk Aversion, Intergenerational Equity and Climate Change

The paper investigates a climate-economy model with an iso-elastic welfare function in which one parameter measures relative risk-aversion and a distinct parameter measures resistance to intertemporal substitution.We show both theoretically and numerically that climate policy responds differently to variations in the two parameters. In particular, we show that higher but lower leads to increase emissions control. We also argue that climate-economy models based on intertemporal expected utility maximization, i.e. models where = , may misinterpret the sensitivity of the climate policy to risk-aversion.     

A Bayesian Approach to Uncertainty Aversion

The Ellsberg paradox demonstrates that people's beliefs over uncertain events might not be representable by subjective probability. We show that if a risk averse decision maker, who has a well defined Bayesian prior, perceives an Ellsberg type decision problem as possibly composed of a bundle of several positively correlated problems, she will be uncertainty averse. We generalize this argument and derive sufficient conditions for uncertainty aversion.     

Risk Aversion and Personality Type

The finance literature supports an increasing role for behavioral aspects of investment decision-making. Among other factors such as demographics, personality type may influence risk tolerance as well. This paper explores the relationship between personality type dimensions of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) and the moments approach to individual investor risk tolerance inherent in expected utility theory (EUT). Our study uses survey results to relate ex ante EUT tolerance for variance and skew to MBTI measures. Results indicate that personality type does explain individual ex ante EUT risk tolerance. Our results further suggest that the relationship between personality type and individual ex ante EUT risk tolerance is non-linear in form.     

Increases in Risk Aversion

This note gives sufficient conditions for signing the effect of an increase in risk aversion on the optimal level of the choice variable selected by a decision maker under conditions of risk. The results are illustrated with a decision model taken from the theory of insurance demand.     

家庭经济脆弱性与风险规避

本文基于期望效用理论构建新的家庭经济脆弱性分析框架,研究死亡风险对我国城市家庭消费的总体影响和异质性影响,为如何规避死亡风险的决策提供证据。结果表明:我国城市居民家庭普遍存在由死亡风险导致的经济脆弱性且比较严重,家庭经济脆弱性程度在20%以上的家庭占全部样本家庭的65%以上;死亡风险导致的家庭消费波动性显著高于消费水平的下降,这意味着采用保险来规避死亡风险比储蓄更有效。尽管家庭持有的寿险保障与面临的经济脆弱性匹配性较好,但寿险持有量不充分且寿险的有效性因家庭异质性存在差异,对3人家庭和35—44岁家庭作用最有效。本文的政策含义在于,脆弱性分析框架不仅能有效度量死亡风险对居民家庭消费和福利的影响,还可以回答居民家庭应如何选择死亡风险规避方式。     

Taxes,Risk Aversion,and the Size of the Underground Economy

Non‐parametric regression analysis was used to investigate the relationship between the effective tax rate and the relative size of the underground economy, using New Zealand data. The underlying theoretical framework is established, and it suggests an ambiguous prediction regarding the sign of the relationship we are studying. However, our non‐parametric empirical analysis, which also allows for the non‐stationarity of the time‐series data, produces a positive and ‘S‐shaped’ relationship, and this supports earlier empirical studies that imposed such functional forms. The estimated model is used to simulate the effects of hypothetical tax changes on the size of the New Zealand underground economy, and to draw policy conclusions.