货币危机、银行业危机与主权债务危机:一个文献研究

通过系统梳理货币危机、银行业危机和主权债务危机的相关文献,建立一个包含三类金融危机的统一分析框架,探寻这三类金融危机的概念特征、产生原因、交互关系、对经济的影响以及如何预警和防范。结果表明:三类金融危机的共同特征是危机爆发前政府、银行、企业和个人的债务过度积累;应对金融危机的巨额成本迫使我们要明确每次金融危机发生的类型和程度,科学理解不同类型金融危机的形成机理、不同类型金融危机之间的交互关系及对宏观经济的影响,这对于金融危机预警和防范及危机爆发后应急政策的制定非常关键。     

危机营销:企业品牌管理的必修课

本文指出,对于竞争中的企业,危机已成为不可避免的事情.只有有效实施危机营销,在危机发生前,曲突徒薪,防患未然,在危机来临时,居危思变,转危为安,企业品牌方能在日益残酷的经济游戏和日益激烈的市场环境中立于不败之地.     

银行危机传导机制的理论分析

了解传导机制可以为阻断危机蔓延提供科学依据,本文从危机传导的基本内涵入手,分析了银行危机传导的诱因——银行脆弱性,提出金融脆弱性是银行危机传导的根本原因。本文在银行危机传导传统定义的基础上重新界定了该概念,分析了银行危机传导的途径,认为金融脆弱性是银行危机传导的重要媒介,防止银行危机传导的根本措施是提高银行的稳健性。     

The Credit Crisis and the Moral Responsibility of Professionals in Finance

Starting from MacIntyre’s virtue ethics, we investigate several codes of conduct of banks to identify the type of virtues that are needed to realize their mission. Based on this analysis, we define three core virtues: honesty, due care, and accuracy. We compare and contrast these codes of conduct with the actual behavior of banks that led to the credit crisis and find that in some cases banks did not behave according to the moral standards they set themselves. However, although banks and the professionals working in them can be blamed for what they did, one should also acknowledge that the institutional context of the free market economy in which they operated made it difficult to live up to the core values lying at the basis of the codes of conduct. Given the neo-liberal free market system, innovative and risky strategies to enhance profits are considered desirable for the sake of shareholder’s interests. A return to the core virtues in the financial sector will therefore only succeed if a renewed sense of responsibility in the sector is supported by institutional changes that allow banks to put their mission into practice.     

金融危机冲击下我国中小企业的生存之路

由美国次贷危机引起的金融危机,正席卷全球,其影响逐步从虚拟经济领域扩散到实体经济领域。面对这一严峻的局势,我国中小企业要利用自身优势,学习各种新的管理模式,加强现金流量的战略战术管理,提高财务运营的安全性,尽可能降低危机对企业的影响。     

Central Banking After the Crisis: No Return to Past Certainties

Before the 2008 crisis, macroeconomic theory and central bank practice regarded low and stable inflation to be a policy objective that was sufficient to ensure macroeconomic and financial stability. There was little concern with the details of the financial system or balance sheet aggregates. This article makes the case that these details are important and that monetary and macroprudential policy must control both the quantity and allocation of credit. This entails a revision of conventional monetary theory as well as policy, particularly to explain the paradox of the precrisis situation of so much credit and so little inflation. The particular role of real estate investment is described as a source of financial instability that can only be addressed by nuanced monetary and macroprudential policy.     

手机银行模式与监管:金融包容与中国的战略转移

金融包容性发展是包括中国在内各发展中国家的重大课题.许多国家正有效利用手机银行渠道为众多无法享有正规金融服务的低收入群体获取金融服务,包括银行主导和非银行主导两种典型模式,而后者对金融包容性发展的贡献更大.与传统网点银行相比,手机银行产生了新风险,一些成功运营的国家在电子货币发行、货币支付系统、代理商、反洗钱及恐怖融资、消费者保护等方面都积累了控制新型风险的监管经验.中国应借鉴国际经验,走出当前手机银行发展模式及相应监管政策的误区和盲点,将重心转向促进农村金融的包容性发展.     

Banking Soundness Indicators and Sovereign Risk in Time of Crisis: The Case of the European Union

This study examines the impact of the soundness of the banking sector on sovereign risk of EU member countries during the financial crisis using a selection of financial soundness indicators (FSIs) and the sovereign ratings of the three main rating agencies. Unlike previous literature that typically focuses on the ability of FSIs to foresee banking crises, we estimate ordered response models to assess the power of these indicators to explain sovereign risk. Our results show that evaluations made by the rating agencies are related to the lagged values of core FSIs such that an improvement in these indicators leads to improvements in upcoming sovereign ratings. Hence, reinforced banking soundness would reduce the sovereign risk. Accordingly, governments, supervisors and central banks should pay close attention to the evolution of certain FSIs related to the banking sector, in addition to other variables that have traditionally been taken into account in analysing sovereign risk.     

互联网银行品牌信任及客户使用意向影响因素研究

金融改革的不断深化为民营资本竞逐银行业提供了前所未有的发展机遇,加速了依托于互联网科技企业而筹建的互联网银行这类新兴金融形态的产生与发展。基于信任转移理论及UTAUT模型,探讨信任转移及其影响因素对互联网银行品牌信任和客户使用意向的影响,实证结果表明:客户对互联网企业的品牌信任度,能正向影响对其旗下互联网银行初始信任的建立,进而正向影响客户使用意向;除了付出绩效、感知风险对使用意向,及企业名誉对初始信任的影响不显著外,其余假设均成立;社群影响对使用意向的影响最大,其次为企业名誉与初始信任;与以往对电子银行的研究结果不同的是,互动需求在互联网银行的情境下,能负向显著影响客户使用意向。     

国际金融危机对天然橡胶市场的影响

国际金融危机对天然橡胶市场形成巨大冲击,天然橡胶价格深幅下调,短期内将维持低位震荡格局,但天然橡胶产业的独特性质和战略地位决定了天然橡胶市场的前景依然乐观。天然橡胶价格回归其长期趋势的调整期长短取决于国际橡胶联盟的协调行动以及中国宏观经济政策的成效。     

银行业开放与国家金融安全

我国银行业开放关系到国家金融安全及社会稳定,如果处理不当,金融开放的压力完全有可能转换成金融安全的压力.影响一国金融安全的主要因素有银行的不良资产、国债规模与偿债能力、金融市场状况及来自外部的冲击.我国银行业开放并不能直接威胁到国家的金融安全,相反,通过银行业的对外开放,在降低银行不良资产、优化金融市场结构等方面,还会减少诱发金融危机的因素.在提高中资银行的经营管理水平、改善公司治理结构、增强市场竞争力等方面也会发挥更加积极的促进作用.因此,我们应该继续坚定不移地推进我国银行业的改革开放进程.     

基于随机性消费行为的品牌危机扩散预测研究

由于消费决策过程的复杂性和随机性,消费者对品牌危机事件的反应会随时间而产生更加复杂的变化。本文运用系统动力学的方法,构建了基于消费群体随机性反应的品牌危机动态扩散预测模型。模型考虑了消费群体的差异性和消费行为的随机性,并针对不同消费群体的特点,运用Vensim．PLE软件对模型进行仿真预测,分析了危机事件中沟通的时效性、消费者忠诚度系数、消费群体离散程度等影响因子,随时间变动对消费者购买行为的影响。     

Race-Ethnic Variations in the Importance of Service Quality Issues in Neighborhood Consumer Banking

ABSTRACT

This paper makes a beginning in the comparison of real ads on source credibility in the context of the marketing of “fitness” related goods and services. While the results establish the greater credibility of celebrity endorsed ads vis à vis non-celebrity endorsed ads in the context of the test product, the authors nevertheless empirically substantiate that certain ad characteristics may have potential for use as screening items to aid in effecting choice between a celebrity and a non-celebrity endorser in other product/service contexts. Additional exploratory analyses and results are reported.     

Central Banking in the Crisis: Conceptual Convergence and Open Questions on Unconventional Monetary Policy

The advanced economies — financial crisis that began in 2007 was triggered by factors that could not have been easily foreseen but also by factors that had been familiar since the Great Depression but were ignored or forgotten. However, once the crisis was apparent, central banks of the major advanced economies — the European Central Bank, the U.S. Federal Reserve System, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan reacted quickly and with a remarkable convergence of policy with respect to defining price stability, communication, enhanced banking surveillance, the role of money and monetary aggregates, unconventional liquidity supply, and forward guidance. These elements of convergence are discussed with respect to their strength and possible dangers in stabilizing the global financial system.     

一个最佳融资结构的理论模型

Jensen的研究注意到了融资结构会通过约束自由现金流量对公司代理成本产生影响.其见解非常独到,但他并没有用数学模型作出严格的推证.本文的工作在于综合了Jensen和其他一些学者的成果,构建了一个数学模型,严格分析融资结构是如何约束经理可以用于相机处理的现金流量,以降低经理们的控制租并进而影响公司价值大小的.此外,本文还指出了应该进一步研究的方向,以及该模型在我国现实制度条件下的适用性.