Efficiency of the IBEX spot–futures basis: The impact of the mini‐futures

This paper considers whether the introduction of the mini‐futures contract for the Spanish Ibex index affects overall market efficiency. Using linear, non‐linear, and fractional integration modeling techniques for the basis term, results of this study suggest the following salient points. First, the equilibrium speed of adjustment is reduced after the introduction of the mini‐futures contract. This effect is particularly pronounced in the mini‐futures second year when its contracts are more heavily traded. Second, fractional integration tests support longer memory in the basis term after the contract introduction, again particularly in the second year. Third, the relationship between the full‐size and mini‐futures contracts appears highly efficient, with a quick speed of adjustment and short memory. Finally, an examination of the volatility dynamics suggests that in the second year of the mini‐futures contract shocks to spot return volatility exhibit longer memory. The results reported here suggest that the increased use of the mini‐futures contract after its introduction has had a detrimental impact on price discovery. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28: 398–415, 2008     

After‐hours trading in equity futures markets

Although it is well known that electronic futures data absorb news (slightly) in advance of spot markets the role of the electronic futures movement in out‐of‐hours trading has not previously been explored. The behavior of the 24‐hour trade in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures market reveals the important role of these markets in absorbing news releases occurring outside of normal trading hours. Peaks in volume and volatility in this market occur in conjunction with U.S. 8:30 A.M. EST news releases, before the opening of the open‐outcry markets, and in a less pronounced fashion immediately post‐close the open‐outcry market. Price impact in these markets is statistically higher in the post‐close than in the pre‐open periods. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:114–136, 2009     

Execution quality in open‐outcry futures markets

This study examines the composition of customer order .flow and the execution quality for different types of customer orders in six futures pits of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). It is shown that off‐exchange customers frequently provide liquidity to other traders by submitting limit orders. The determinants of customers' choice between limit and market orders are examined, and it is found that higher bid—ask spreads increase the limit‐order submission frequency, and increased price volatility makes limit‐order submission less likely. Effective spreads, trading revenues, and turnaround times for customer liquidity‐demanding and limit orders are also documented. Consistent with evidence from equity markets, the results show that limit‐order traders receive better executions than traders using liquidity‐demanding orders, but incur adverse selection costs. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:1067–1092, 2005     

Asymmetric information in commodity futures markets: Theory and empirical evidence

This article examines the theoretical and empirical implications of asymmetric information in commodity futures markets. In particular, it formulates and tests a theoretical model that recognizes two distinct categories of traders: hedgers, who participate in both spot and futures markets, and speculators, who participate only in the futures market. Speculators are assumed to possess differential information about the realized values of selected random variables. Multiperiod futures market equilibria are derived under competitive conditions, and the ability of futures markets to forecast changes in equilibrium spot market prices are examined. The key variable is shown to be the randomness and informational asymmetry in the aggregate supply by participating hedgers in the spot market, whose absence turns out to be the major determinant of the revelation of informational asymmetry. Moreover, under the assumption of independence of error forecasts for prices and spot market supplies, it is shown that futures market equilibrium ends up with linear expressions for prices and futures contract volumes. These linear expressions are then used to develop empirically testable models. The main empirical implications in these models revolve around the role of the basis as a predictor of future spot price changes. The paper provides an empirical investigation of these implications, using three commodities traded on the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE). © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 18:803–825, 1998     

The effect of the introduction of Cubes on the Nasdaq‐100 index spot‐futures pricing relationship

This paper examines the impact of the introduction of the Nasdaq‐100 Index Tracking Stock (referred to as Cubes) on the pricing relationship between Nasdaq‐100 futures and the underlying index. Observations obtained from tick‐by‐tick Nasdaq‐100 futures transactions and index value data support the hypothesis that the introduction of Cubes in March 1999 has led to improvements in the Nasdaq‐100 index futures pricing efficiency. Both the size and frequency of violations in futures price boundaries appear to be reduced. Furthermore, there appears to be an increase in the speed of the market response to observed violations. These results are attributed to the increased ease in establishing a spot Nasdaq‐100 index position after the introduction of the tracking stock. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22: 197–218, 2002     

Causality in futures markets

This study tests causal hypotheses emanating from theories of futures markets by utilizing methods appropriate for disproving causal relationships with observational data. The hedging pressure theory of futures markets risk premiums, the generalized version of the normal backwardation theory of Keynes, is rejected. Theories predicting that the activity levels of speculators or uninformed traders affect levels of price volatility, either positively or negatively, are also rejected. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:1039–1057, 2006     

Do designated market makers improve liquidity in open‐outcry futures markets?

On February 1, 2002, the Chicago Board of Trade appointed a designated market maker to enhance liquidity in its 10‐year interest rate swap futures contract. This market‐making program is the first of its kind in the open‐outcry futures industry. We find that introduction of the market maker has increased volume and reduced transaction costs. The market maker has also enhanced the speed and the efficiency of price discovery. Overall, the results suggest that the market‐making program is successful in improving liquidity. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:479–502, 2004     

Interdealer trading in futures markets

Trading amongst dealers on the floor of the futures exchange is examined. Since there is only one trading venue, the common floor area, trading between dealers is carried on in the presence of trades involving customer orders as well, offering a unique setting for testing the effect of inventory on dealer pricing. The findings are that these futures floor traders implicitly engage in interdealer trading as an inventory management tool. Interdealer trades are more likely to be position reducing than other trades, at higher costs than offsetting with customers. In addition, the concept of a dealer hierarchy is developed, where some floor traders, who generally are more successful, profit from their trades with other dealers. Furthermore, these more successful traders are more likely to use interdealer trading in position reducing trades, which is consistent with the existence of a dealer hierarchy. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:923–944, 2004     

Trading and information in futures markets

This paper studies the trading behavior of different types of traders (customer type indicators [CTI's]) in corn futures. Nonmembers (CTI4) consume most of the intraday liquidity while local traders (CTI1) as market makers are its main provider. Both groups combine most of the intraday trading volume. Interday trading comes mainly from proprietary accounts (CTI2) and other local traders' trades (CTI3), reflecting their longer-term needs for hedging and speculation. Changes in the overnight positions of the general public (CTI4) and clearing members (CTI2) contribute mostly to daily price discovery, while the positions of CTI3 group reflect possible information advantage about future price movements.     

Persistence in some energy futures markets

In this study, we examine the possibility of long‐range dependence in some energy futures markets for different maturities. In order to test for persistence, we use a variety of techniques based on non‐parametric, semi‐parametric and parametric methods. The results indicate that there is little or no evidence of long memory in gasoline, propane, oil and heating oil at different maturities. However, when we focus on the volatility process, proxied by the absolute returns, we find strong evidence of long memory in all the variables at different contracts. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:490–507, 2010     

Persistence of volatility in futures markets

This article examines the characteristics of key measures of volatility for different types of futures contracts to provide a better foundation for modeling volatility behavior and derivative values. Particular attention is focused on analyzing how different measures of volatility affect volatility persistence relationships. Intraday realized measures of volatility are found to be more persistent than daily measures, the type of GARCH procedure used for conditional volatility analysis is critical, and realized volatility persistence is not coherent with conditional volatility persistence. Specifically, although there is a good fit between the realized and conditional volatilities, no coherence exists between their degrees of persistence, a counterintuitive finding that shows realized and conditional volatility measures are not a substitute for one another. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:571–594, 2006     

Small traders in currency futures markets

This study examines the interrelation between small traders' open interest and large hedging and speculation in the Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, British pound, and Japanese yen futures markets. The results, based on Granger‐causality tests and vector autoregressive models, suggest that small traders' open interest is closely related to large speculators' open interest. Small traders and speculators tend to herd, which means that small traders are long [short] when speculators are long [short] as well. Moreover, small traders and speculators are positive feedback traders whereas hedgers are contrarians. Regarding information flows, speculators lead small traders in three of the four currency futures markets. The results therefore suggest that small traders are small speculators who follow the large speculators, indicating that they are less well informed than the large speculators. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:898–913, 2011