Futures market equilibrium under Knightian uncertainty

This paper examines the effects of Knightian uncertainty on a commodity futures market within the Newbery‐Stiglitz framework. It is shown that Knightian traders act more conservatively. In a partial trade equilibrium, risk aversion and Knightian uncertainty have qualitatively similar effects on the equilibrium price and the equilibrium trading volume. Full‐trade and no‐trade equilibria are likely to prevail when the producer and the speculator incur different Knightian uncertainty. Herein different impacts of risk aversion and Knightian uncertainty are observed. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:701–718, 2003     

Production and hedging under state‐dependent preferences

This study examines the behavior of the competitive firm under output price uncertainty and state‐dependent preferences. When there is a futures market for hedging purposes, the firm's optimal production decision is independent of the output price uncertainty and of the state‐dependent preferences. If the futures contracts are unbiased, the firm's optimal futures position is an over‐hedge or an under‐hedge, depending on whether the firm is correlation averse or correlation loving, and on whether the output price is positively or negatively expectation dependent on the state variable. When the firm has access not only to the unbiased futures but also to fairly priced options, sufficient conditions are derived under which the firm's optimal hedge position includes both hedging instruments. This study thus establishes a hedging role of options, which is over and above that of futures, in the case of state‐dependent preferences. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 32:945–963, 2012     

Futures market hedging efficiency in a new futures exchange: Effects of trade partner diversification

This paper uses transaction data to examine hedging efficiency in a new futures exchange; the Fish Pool salmon futures exchange in Norway. The paper utilizes data on firm-level exporter/importer transaction prices to quantify firm-level futures hedging efficiency. This allows us to address heterogeneity in hedging efficiency and basis risk at the firm level. The main result of this paper shows that larger firms with greater trade partner diversification have lower basis risk. Such firms align their internal transaction price closer to the common spot price in the market, which encourages greater futures market participation. Results are discussed in light of recent declines in participation in the salmon futures exchange.     

Minimum‐variance futures hedging under alternative return specifications

It is widely believed that the conventional futures hedge ratio, is variance‐minimizing when it is computed using percentage returns or log returns. It is shown that the conventional hedge ratio is variance‐minimizing when computed from returns measured in dollar terms but not from returns measured in percentage or log terms. Formulas for the minimum‐variance hedge ratio under percentage and log returns are derived. The difference between the conventional hedge ratio computed from percentage and log returns and the minimum‐variance hedge ratio is found to be relatively small when directly hedging, especially when using near‐maturity futures. However, the minimum‐variance hedge ratio can vary significantly from the conventional hedge ratio computed from percentage or log returns when used in cross‐hedging situations. Simulation analysis shows that the incorrect application of the conventional hedge ratio in crosshedging situations can substantially reduce hedging performance. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:537–552, 2005     

Impact of directed‐to‐consumers marketing strategies on firm market value

The objective of this paper is to analyse the impact of different directed‐to‐consumers marketing strategies on firm market value. To that end, we follow a microeconometric approach that consists of formulating a model whose dependent variable is an indicator of market value, that is to say, Tobin's Q, whilst the independent variables take the form of a number of different marketing strategies. This model is estimated by using an unbiased survey carried out in the year 2000 to executives working in 405 North‐American firms. The empirical results indicate that the most effective marketing strategies are, in this order, the ability to rapidly develop new products and services, the importance of both providing customized products and goods of high quality and finally, customer loyalty.     

Regime‐dependent smile‐adjusted delta hedging

We introduce several regime‐dependent smile‐adjusted deltas and compare their efficiency with the smile‐adjusted deltas that are popular with option traders. Using years of daily option prices, out‐of‐sample hedging performance tests for options of all moneyness and maturities and daily, weekly, or fortnightly rebalancing show that even the simplest regime‐dependent smile‐adjustment consistently outperforms implied BSM delta hedging and local volatility and minimum variance smile‐adjustments. Markov‐switching deltas offer the best performance, with delta‐hedging errors often half the size of implied BSM hedging errors. During volatile markets risk reduction from regime‐dependent delta hedging is much greater than during tranquil periods.     

Trust and the don't‐want‐to‐complain bias in peer‐to‐peer platform markets

This paper addresses peer‐to‐peer (P2P) digital platform markets, often associated with the “sharing economy” or the “collaborative economy”. Such digital platforms, facilitating new purchasing channels for consumers by matching P2P supply and demand, can be considered new market places challenging the conventional markets. How are P2P platform markets evaluated by the consumers? Based on a comprehensive survey‐data material, five different P2P service markets are considered by peer buyers and the results compared to consumers’ evaluations from similar conventional service markets according to trust, comparability and consumers’ satisfaction with the transactions. Comparability seems to be one advantage for the platform markets, while trust could become a problem. Conditions for trust in P2P platform markets is particularly interesting to study because contrary to conventional markets P2P transactions cannot rely on governmental laws, regulations and security net. This trust problem has been solved by a trust‐generating rate and review system. Our data material, however, distinguishes a mechanism that we have coined as the don't‐want‐to‐complain bias. More precisely, people do not like to complain, hence buyers of P2P services often hesitate to give negative ratings when they are discontent with a service or a supplier. Therefore, positive ratings become overestimated. If consumers recognize this bias, ratings and reviews will lose credibility and no longer be considered trustworthy. Eventually, this may threaten the well‐functioning of P2P markets.     

Time‐varying market price of risk in the crude oil futures market

In this study, a three‐factor model of crude oil prices is estimated, which incorporates a time‐varying market price of risk. The model is able to accurately capture the term structure of futures prices with evidence suggesting that risk premiums in the crude oil market are time‐varying. Using the cross‐section of futures prices, we estimate a time‐series of the market price of risk in the crude oil market implied by the model. We find that the risk premiums in the crude oil market are driven by the same risk factors as equity and bond markets. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:779–807, 2011     

Testing the Market Integration Process in the European Car Sector: Evidence from Pricing‐to‐market Behaviour

In this study, we investigate the process of the European car market integration by analysing the evolution of cross‐country differences in the degree of pricing‐to‐market behaviour of United Kingdom exporters. We estimate these country differences by exploiting statistical information for pre‐tax retail prices and for export unit values. Conclusions from both independent data sets are, in general, quite consistent. Results support the claim that, in the period before the Block Exemption Regulation (1400/2002) came fully into force, international price discrimination was an important source of car price dispersion within the euro area. For a more recent period, we found that estimated deviations in pricing‐to‐market behaviour across destinations have become lower. This convergence suggests that car market integration was progressively improved at the end of the last decade.     

Message‐to‐person versus person‐to‐message: An alternative way to conceptualize personalized advertising

This study provides an alternative way to conceptualize personalized advertising and discusses when and why nonpersonalized information can be more effective than personalized information in changing people's attitudes and behavioral intentions. Different from the traditional personalization approach in the literature that personalizes a message for an individual, this alternative way of thinking is to personalize an individual for a message. It is argued that an individual can be personalized for a message via priming tactics and it leads to reverse personalization effects where a nonpersonalized message generates stronger persuasion effects than a personalized message. The effects of priming on personalization are moderated by perceived prime credibility and mediated by perceived message relevance.     

A new look at hedging with derivatives: Will firms reduce market risk exposure?

This study examines derivatives use of foreign exchange, interest rate, and commodities risk by nonfinancial firms across multiple industries, using data from 1995 to 2001. This work considers the interaction of a firm's risk exposures, derivatives use, and real operations simultaneously, and considers how these factors change over time using a consistent database. Hedging with derivatives is only signi.cantly related to commodity risk exposure during most years of the study, and to a more limited degree to interest rate exposure. Further, a strong correlation was found between risk exposures for some years using a new technique, suggesting that univariate modeling is not always appropriate. The implications are that hedging with derivatives is not always important to a firm's rate of return and is linked to other nonfinancial and economic factors. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27: 1053–1083, 2007     

Semistatic and sparse variance‐optimal hedging

We consider the problem of hedging a contingent claim with a “semistatic” strategy composed of a dynamic position in one asset and static (buy‐and‐hold) positions in other assets. We give general representations of the optimal strategy and the hedging error under the criterion of variance optimality and provide tractable formulas using Fourier integration in case of the Heston model. We also consider the problem of optimally selecting a sparse semistatic hedging strategy, i.e., a strategy that only uses a small subset of available hedging assets and discuss parallels to the variable‐selection problem in linear regression. The methods developed are illustrated in an extended numerical example where we compute a sparse semistatic hedge for a variance swap using European options as static hedging assets.     

Algorithmic market making in dealer markets with hedging and market impact

In dealer markets, dealers provide prices at which they agree to buy and sell the assets and securities they have in their scope. With ever increasing trading volume, this quoting task has to be done algorithmically in most markets such as foreign exchange (FX) markets or corporate bond markets. Over the last 10 years, many mathematical models have been designed that can be the basis of quoting algorithms in dealer markets. Nevertheless, in most (if not all) models, the dealer is a pure internalizer, setting quotes and waiting for clients. However, on many dealer markets, dealers also have access to an interdealer market or even public trading venues where they can hedge part of their inventory. In this paper, we propose a model taking this possibility into account therefore allowing dealers to externalize part of their risk. The model displays an important feature well known to practitioners that within a certain inventory range, the dealer internalizes the flow by appropriately adjusting the quotes and starts externalizing outside of that range. The larger the franchise, the wider is the inventory range suitable for pure internalization. The model is illustrated numerically with realistic parameters for USDCNH spot market.     

Futures hedging using dynamic models of the variance/covariance structure

Dynamic futures‐hedging ratios are estimated across seven markets using generalized models of the variance/covariance structure. The hedging performances of the resultant dynamic strategies are then compared with static and naïve strategies, both in‐ and out‐of‐sample. Bayesian‐adjusted hedge ratios also are employed as error purgers. The empirical results indicate that the generalized dynamic models are well specified and that their use in determining optimal hedge ratios can lead to improvements in hedging performance as measured by the volatilities of the returns on the optimally hedged position. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:241–260, 2003     

A Reconsideration of Rent‐to‐Own

Rent‐to‐own agreements (RTO) are traditionally seen as disguised installment contracts imposed on uninformed consumers at usurious interest rates. After the flaws and omissions in these interest rate calculations are addressed, the implied annual percentage rates (APRs) remain extraordinarily high. It is shown that alternatives to RTO, such as layaway and long‐term rental, yield comparable APRs. The appeal of rent‐to‐own is then attributed to its structure that includes an initial pure rental phase of high value to persons in volatile financial and/or personal situations followed by an installment phase. Should these situations be resolved, the consumer exercises an imbedded option to acquire a perhaps otherwise unobtainable installment agreement at a competitive interest rate.