An analysis of the relationship between electricity and natural‐gas futures prices

This article analyzes the relationship between electricity futures prices and natural‐gas futures prices. We find that the daily settlement prices of New York Mercantile Exchange's (NYMEX's) California–Oregon Border (COB) and Palo Verde (PV) electricity futures contracts are cointegrated with the prices of its natural‐gas futures contract. The coefficient of natural‐gas futures prices in our model of COB electricity futures prices is not significantly different from the coefficient of gas prices in our model of PV electricity although there are differences in the production of electricity in these two service areas. The coefficients in our model do reflect differences in the consumption of electricity in the COB and PV service areas, however. Our trading‐rule simulations indicate that the statistically significant mean reversion found in the relationship between electricity and natural‐gas futures prices also is economically significant in both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample tests. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:95–122, 2002     

The relationship between spot and futures prices: Evidence from the crude oil market

This article examines the relationship between the spot and futures prices of WTI crude oil using a sample of daily data. Linear causality testing reveals that futures prices lead spot prices, but nonlinear causality testing reveals a bidirectional effect. This result suggests that both spot and futures markets react simultaneously to new information. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 175–193, 1999     

The role of the temporary component in spot prices in the revision of expected future spot prices: Evidence from index futures quotes

It is frequently argued that foreign investors have extrapolative expectations due to their informational disadvantages. That is, in the absence of other sources of information, foreigners revise their expectations on the future price of a domestic stock more in line with its current price change than do domestic investors. In this study, we analytically show that foreigners might respond more to a price change because they pay relatively less attention to a temporary component in price—i.e. because they are more well‐informed. We confirm this hypothesis with a simple yet powerful test that is designed by the identification schemes arising directly from the nature of a temporary component and by the access to a direct measure of the investor's expectation, namely, the quote for futures contracts. After controlling for the temporary component effect and using the lead–lag relationship between the spot and futures markets, we show that foreign investors are indeed most well‐informed, whereas domestic individuals are at the other end with the most extrapolative expectations. Finally, domestic institutions are largely indistinguishable from foreigners but are noticeably different from domestic individuals.     

Target prices,market prices,and economic efficiency in agriculture in the United States

This paper looks at one aspect of current United States agricultural policy. This concerns the attempt by the federal government to support commodity prices and income of farmers. This is accomplished through the deficiency payments program. Unfortunately, the program is inherently economically inefficient. Moreover, alternatives (short of eliminating the program altogether and not replacing it) also are not economically efficient.

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Zusammenfassung In der amerikanischen Agrarpolitik spielen Preis- und Einkommenssubventionen für Farmer eine wichtige Rolle. Der Beitrag behandelt die Wirkungen des seit 1985 bestehenden Systems von Ausgleichszahlungen für landwirtschaftliche Erzeugnisse. Diese Zahlungen errechnen sich als Differenz zwischen dem Subventionspreis für ein bestimmtes landwirtschaftliches Erzeugnis und seinem Marktpreis.Die bei den Landwirten eintretenden Wirkungen sind meist positiv, hingegen werden die Konsumenten bei Lebensmitteln mit Preiserhöhungen belastet. Seit die Marktpreise in den USA über den Weltmarktpreisen liegen, sind zusätzliche staatliche Subventionen notwendig, um landwirtschaftliche Erzeugnisse auf dem Weltmarkt verkaufen zu können. Auch dafür werden die Konsumenten in ihrer Rolle als Steuerzahler belastet. Die Kosten des Systems betragen für jeden Steuerzahler jährlich etwa 413$.Die Ausgleichszahlungen führen zu Verzerrungen bei wirtschaftlichen Anreizen und dadurch zu einer Fehlallokation von Ressourcen. Deshalb wird diese Politik vom Autor als ineffizient beurteilt. Er diskutiert Alternativen, die darauf abzielen, die gewünschten politischen Ziele zu erreichen. Doch keine dieser Alternativen geht ernsthaft das Problem der wirtschaftlichen Ineffizienz an, das mit Subventionen verbunden ist.

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Noel D. Uri is a Supervisor Agricultural Economist in the Resources and Technology Division, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1301 New York Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20005, USA. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the policies of the U.S. Department of Agriculture or the views of other U.S. Department of Agriculture staff members.     

Interdependencies between agricultural commodity futures prices on the LIFFE

Interdependencies between commodity prices can arise from the impact of changing macroeconomic variables, from complementarities or substitutabilities between commodities, or from common responses by speculators. Malliaris and Urrutia (1996) found significant linkages between rollover prices of six related agricultural commodities on the Chicago Board of Trade. This article examines interdependencies between futures prices for soft commodities traded on the London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE), calculated using Clark indices. Results show that there are no interdependencies between any two prices; price discovery of one contract provides no information about others. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22: 269–280, 2002     

An empirical examination of the relation between futures spreads volatility,volume, and open interest

This study investigates the relation between petroleum futures spread variability, trading volume, and open interest in an attempt to uncover the source(s) of variability in futures spreads. The study finds that contemporaneous (lagged) volume and open interest provide significant explanation for futures spreads volatility when entered separately. The study also shows that lagged volume and lagged open interest, when entered in the conditional variance equation simultaneously, have greater effect on volatility and substantially reduce the persistence of volatility. This finding seems to support the sequential information arrival hypothesis of Copeland (1976). Finally, the findings of this study also suggest a degree of market inefficiency in petroleum futures spreads. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:1083–1102, 2002     

Bias and backwardation in natural gas futures prices

This paper tests the fair‐game efficient‐markets hypothesis for the natural gas futures prices over the period 1990 through 2003. We find evidence consistent with the Keynesian notion of normal backwardation. Regressing the future spot prices on the lagged futures prices and using the Stock‐Watson (1993) procedure to correct for the correlation between the error terms and the futures prices, we find that natural gas futures are biased predictors of the corresponding future spot prices for contracts ranging from 3 to 12 months. These results cast a serious doubt on the commonly held view that natural gas futures sell at a premium over the expected future spot prices, and that this bias is due to the systematic risk of the futures price movements represented by a negative “beta.” We also find evidence for the Samuelson effect. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:281–308, 2005     

An empirical analysis of migration in information-intensive work in the United States

The purpose of this study is threefold: to analyse the metropolitan origin and destination patterns of movers in information-intensive work, to examine the demographic and work characteristics of movers, and to determine the odds of an intermetropolitan move as opposed to an intrametropolitan move based on demographic and work characteristics. In this study, two industry categories (high technology manufacturing and advanced producer services) and one occupation category (engineers) are used as surrogates of information-intensive work. A much larger portion of moves are usually intrametropolitan as opposed to intermetropolitan. The data for the analysis were collected from Public Use Micro Sample data files of the 1990 US census. The findings show the dominance of large metropolitan areas as major origins and destinations; however, the importance of existing and emerging high tech agglomerations cannot be ignored. Selected findings of the determinants of migration show that males, whites, advanced degree holders, never-married persons are more likely to move compared to females, nonwhites, college degree holders and/or married persons. Findings also show the importance of producer services in the geographic mobility of females. However, in general, more female movers are in technical occupations and more male movers are executives and professionals. The research findings also show variations in terms of demographic and work characteristics across information-intensive work and metropolitan move categories despite the similarities in origin and destination patterns.