Identification in a model of sorting with social externalities and the causes of urban segregation

This paper discusses nonparametric identification in a model of sorting in which location choices depend on the location choices of other agents as well as prices and exogenous location characteristics. In this model, demand slopes and hence preferences are not identifiable without further restrictions because of the absence of independent variation of endogenous composition and exogenous location characteristics. Several solutions of this problem are presented and applied to data on neighborhoods in US cities. These solutions use exclusion restrictions, based on either subgroup demand shifters, the spatial structure of externalities, or the dynamics of prices and composition in response to an amenity shock. The empirical results consistently suggest the presence of strong social externalities, that is a dependence of location choices on neighborhood composition.     

A model of residential change and neighborhood tipping

This paper applies the theory of probabilistic consumer demand to an analysis of residential change at the urban neighborhood scale. By developing the profit maximizing pricing behavior of housing suppliers, it is shown that neighborhood transitions from high income to low income and from white to black can be explained on purely economic grounds without involving prejudicial preferences. The analytical model explains two types of transition. In the first, a neighborhood's social mix changes gradually in response to gradual exogenous changes. In the second, a neighborhood “tips” suddenly in response to similar exogenous changes. The two transitions can occur depending on the characteristics of the demand functions for the two competing groups.     

The impacts of lending, race, and ownership on rental housing rehabilitation

This paper presents an empirical analysis of landlords' rehabilitation investment decisions in a large sample of buildings in one city—focusing on impacts of lending patterns, race, and ownership. The study finds that availability of loans from major institutional lenders—banks and savings and loans—in a neighborhood has a substantial independent impact on repair decisions, after controlling for a multitude of other neighborhood and building variables. For all landlords taken together, loan availability problems rather than owners' discriminatory attitudes seem to discourage some otherwise profitable repairs in black neighborhoods. But significant differences appear between owner-occupant landlords and others. After detailing these findings, the paper summarizes several policy directions they suggest.     

Chaos and sector-specific externalities

Benhabib and Farmer [1996. Indeterminacy and sector specific externalities. Journal of Monetary Economics 37, 397–419] explore the possibility of local indeterminacy in a two-sector model with sector-specific externalities. They find that very small sector-specific externalities are sufficient for local indeterminacy. In this case, it is possible to construct sunspot equilibria where extrinsic uncertainty matters. In this paper, I provide a global analysis of their model revealing the existence of Euler equation branching. This branching allows for regime switching equilibria with cycles and chaotic behavior. These equilibria occur whether the “local dynamics” are determinate or indeterminate.     

Internalizing Neighborhood Externalities: The Effect of Subdivision Size and Zoning on Residential Lot Prices

Though land-development regulations potentially control neighborhood externalities, the developer of a residential subdivision contributes to that control by developing a larger parcel of land. This paper reports estimates of the effect of parcel size on the sale price of developed building lots. The results indicate that adding an acre to the median development increases lot prices by about 3%. Amenities appear to be income normal, and the return to parcel size is greater in unincorporated areas, perhaps due to less intensive governmental control over externalities.     

Solving the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty using parameterized cross-sectional distributions

This note describes how the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty in Den Haan et al. [Comparison of solutions to the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, this issue] is solved using standard quadrature and projection methods. This is made possible by linking the aggregate state variables to a parameterized density that describes the cross-sectional distribution. A simulation procedure is used to find the best shape of the density within the class of approximating densities considered. This note compares several simulation procedures in which there is—as in the model—no cross-sectional sampling variation.     

Contestability of the urban land market: an event study of Hong Kong land auctions

The traditional theory of urban land markets assumes perfect contestability—the absolute freedom of market entry—that compels developers to bid up the land rent to equal the economic profit from land use. This assumption, however, is empirically untested due to the difficulties in measuring the ex ante economic profit of land acquisition. We overcome these difficulties by applying the event-study methodology to Hong Kong government land auctions. When a developer acquires a site at a price below its fair market value, the rationality of the stock market entails a positive abnormal return on the developer’s stock. Our analysis shows evidence of positive expected abnormal returns, indicating an imperfectly contestable land market. We further show that the expected abnormal return increases with the site value and the government land disposal level but decreases with the property market liquidity.     

A model for sealed-bid auctions with independent private value and common value components

This paper shows how a decision-making model can be applied to a sealed-bid auction with both independent private value (IPV) and common value (CV) components. The model yields estimates for the winning bid and for the actual value and error components of the winning bid as functions of the number of bidders and the underlying value and error distributions, assuming that these distributions are normal. The winner's curse and the special cases of IPV and CV auctions are examined using the model.     

On the use of policy to reduce housing market segmentation

This paper discusses two questions: (i) in Britain, can the movements of households away from cities be reversed by suitable government policies? (ii) Can integrated rather than segregated communities be developed? We consider the use of three types of policy instrument—land use planning, area regeneration initiatives and fiscal incentives targeted at individual households. We employ two types of model to investigate these policies—firstly, illustrative cellular automata, designed to illustrate the stability of segregation and, secondly, a fully estimated model of location choice. Our results suggest that there is potential for wider use of fiscal policy to influence population distributions.     

Externalities and Industrial Development

Using panel data for five capital goods industries, this paper estimates dynamic externalities. In contrast to previous studies, panel data allow separation of externalities from fixed effects and identification of a lag structure. I find strong evidence of Marshall–Arrow–Romer (MAR) (own industry, or localization) externalities. For Jacobs (urbanization) externalities effects are smaller. In terms of lag structure, for MAR externalities the biggest effects are typically from several years ago, but die out after six years. For urbanization phenomena, effects persist to the end of the time horizon of the data–eight or nine years back.     

A comparison of two model averaging techniques with an application to growth empirics

Parameter estimation under model uncertainty is a difficult and fundamental issue in econometrics. This paper compares the performance of various model averaging techniques. In particular, it contrasts Bayesian model averaging (BMA) — currently one of the standard methods used in growth empirics — with a new method called weighted-average least squares (WALS). The new method has two major advantages over BMA: its computational burden is trivial and it is based on a transparent definition of prior ignorance. The theory is applied to and sheds new light on growth empirics where a high degree of model uncertainty is typically present.     

Neighborhood amenities: An economic analysis

A spatial model of household and firm demand and supply of market goods is developed. Housing and neighborhood amenity markets are explicitly considered in deriving market equilibrium. The equilibrium relationships are empirically investigated, yielding important insights into the functioning of the urban economy. Attention is focused on externalities involved in neighborhood markets and the simultaneous determination of housing and amenity market equilibrium. The effect of neighborhood amenities on household equilibrium is of a major magnitude and effects of “externality” variables on both housing and amenity equilibrium are substantiated. The degree of neighborhood homogeneity and the extent of government programs aimed at neighborhood development are found to have significant impacts on housing and amenity markets.     

Macro-logistics and externality cost trends in South Africa – underscoring the sustainability imperative

The challenges facing the logistics industry in a fossil fuel-challenged global economy are highlighted by transportation's rising contribution to logistics costs, as evidenced in the USA's and South Africa's logistics costs time series, the two longest-running such series available globally. The anticipated persistence of rising, volatile oil prices and mounting pressure to account for externalities will exacerbate the increase in transport costs (TCs). The results of South Africa's externality cost model show that transport externalities add an additional 18% to already high TCs. In the South African context, the equally largest contributors to freight transport externalities are accidents involving road freight vehicles and road freight emissions. The visibility of these costs is the first step towards internalisation and illustrates the desirability of a fundamental shift in the structure of the South African freight transport industry through the introduction of long-distance intermodal solutions.     

Old homes, externalities, and poor neighborhoods. A model of urban decline and renewal

This paper investigates urban decline and renewal in the United States using three panels that follow neighborhoods on a geographically consistent basis over extended periods of time. Findings indicate that change in neighborhood economic status is common, averaging roughly 13 percent per decade; roughly two-thirds of neighborhoods studied in 1950 were of quite different economic status fifty years later. Panel unit root tests for 35 MSAs indicate that neighborhood economic status is a stationary process, consistent with long-running cycles of decline and renewal. In Philadelphia County, a complete cycle appears to last up to 100 years. Aging housing stocks and redevelopment contribute to these patterns, as do local externalities associated with social interactions. Lower-income neighborhoods appear to be especially sensitive to the presence of individuals that provide social capital. Many of the factors that drive change at the local level have large and policy relevant effects.     

Scale Externalities in Korea

This paper estimates the nature and magnitude of scale externalities in a developing country, Korea, in the period 1983–1993. This is a period of rapid industry deconcentration from Seoul to other metro areas, providing a context where externalities are measured when local scale magnitudes are changing dramatically. The data allow us to examine the emerging degree of national industrial concentration in different industries, as related to their scale externality magnitudes. We also examine whether individual industries agglomerate in cities which have a comparative advantage for that industry.     

Hedonic Housing Prices in Paris: An Unbalanced Spatial Lag Pseudo‐Panel Model with Nested Random Effects

This paper estimates a hedonic housing model based on flats sold in the city of Paris over the period 1990–2003. This is done using maximum likelihood estimation, taking into account the nested structure of the data. Paris is historically divided into 20 arrondissements, each divided into four quartiers (quarters), which in turn contain between 15 and 169 blocks (îlot, in French) per quartier. This is an unbalanced pseudo?panel data containing 156,896 transactions. Despite the richness of the data, many neighborhood characteristics are not observed, and we attempt to capture these neighborhood spillover effects using a spatial lag model. Using likelihood ratio tests, we find significant spatial lag effects as well as significant nested random error effects. The empirical results show that the hedonic housing estimates and the corresponding marginal effects are affected by taking into account the nested aspects of the Paris housing data as well as the spatial neighborhood effects.Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A note on the determinants of residential succession

A recent paper by J. Brueckner [J. Urban Econ., 4, (1977)] presents empirical evidence that the Muth vintage model explains the neighborhood succession process better than the Bailey boundary externality model. This note shows that Brueckner's apparent empirical findings are spurious as a result of the construction of the dependent variable, and do not provide insight into the neighborhood succession process. Re-estimation of the corrected regressions using similar data yields results which are clearly supportive of neither theoretical model.     

Public education under capital mobility

The paper considers a two-country model of overlapping generations economies with intergenerational transfers motivated by altruism and investment in human capital. We examine in a non-stationary competitive equilibrium the optimal provision of education with and without capital market integration. First, we explore how regimes of education provision—public, private or mixed—arise and how they affect the dynamics of autarkic economies. Second, we study the effects of capital market integration, in equilibrium, on the optimal provision of education. Third, we show that capital market integration enhances government intervention in the provision of public education (to improve the welfare of its constituents) and consider various solutions to such a competition.     

A special representation of a sufficient randomization kernel

Summary A recent paper byKumar/Pathak [1977] contains two examples showing how—in the presence of a boundedly complete sufficient statistic—a randomization kernel can be obtained which yields a random variable equivalent to the original one.It is the purpose of this note to present a simple general theorem containing these examples as special cases. The essential assumption is that the observation can be expressed by a pair of stochastically independent statistics, one of which is ancillary.     

Residential change and economic choice behavior

Theory of economic choice behavior is applied to construct a dynamic model of residential change at the neighborhood scale. The utility of a neighborhood depends on the investor's decisions, and two different specifications are considered. In the first, these decisions result from a strategy fixed a priori. The model can then be easily studied. The second is concerned with the simplified case of a single neighborhood and supposes that the housing price and quality are dependent on maintenance expenditures viewed as a function of the number of individuals living in the neighborhood. It is then shown how different processes of residential change can be generated by purely economic factors.