Profit Margins,Adjustment Costs and the Business Cycle: An Application to Spanish Manufacturing Firms*

The objective of this paper is to investigate the cyclical behaviour of mark‐ups, using a panel of Spanish manufacturing firms over the period 1990–1998. Margins are estimated from the optimal conditions derived from the firm's optimisation problem, which assumes that labour inputs are subject to adjustment costs. A number of results emerge from the estimations. First, we find positive and asymmetric adjustment costs for permanent labour inputs. Second, price‐cost margins are markedly procyclical. Our estimates suggest that labour adjustment costs more than double the variability of average margins with respect to Lerner indexes. Third, we find differences in the parameters of the adjustment technology across industries which make markups of intermediate and production good industries more cyclical than consumer good industries. Finally, industry‐specific price‐cost margins are higher in more concentrated industries.     

基于锁模的地区经济周期波动同步化实证分析

本文采用我国6个经济划分区1952～2004年的年度GDP数据,通过频域方法分析了我国地区经济周期波动的同步化趋势,并运用Granger因果关系检验、脉冲反应、方差分解以及非线性检验等实证研究了形成这种趋势的原因,结果表明,地区经济波动之间具有非线性锁模(mode-lock)发生的必要条件,这意味着锁模这一内部机制是造成我国地区经济周期同步化现象的可能原因之一。     

考虑非期望产出的能源效率同经济增长的实证分析

本文选取2000-2016年全国各省份面板数据,利用DEA-Malmquist指数方法分别测算了考虑环境因素和不考虑环境因素的全要素生产力,t检验结果显示效率值差别显著,因此在测算投入产出效率过程中有必要考虑非期望产出环境指标。样本期间各省份全要素生产力迅速提高,由于纯技术效率低,西部地区全要素生产力和能源效率明显低于东部地区,能源效率与全要素生产力显著相关,尤其与纯技术效率相关性比较强,因此发展经济首要任务是提高科学技术水平。     

Public Schools and In-migration in North Carolina Counties, 1975–80

Abstract . The migration model presented in this paper indicates (hat the academic quality of public schools, independent of their racial composition, is an important determinant of in-migration in North Carolina counties. The failure to control for school quality is shown to lead to a significant overestimate of the negative impact of school racial mix. These results accord with the Tiebout Hypothesis and with a growing body of other research which suggests that the distributions of public services and other amenities are the principal determinants of recent migration patterns in the U.S.     

Income Level and Inflation Strain in the United States: 1971–1975

A bstract . Estimates of net inflationary effects in the United States from 1971 to 1975 are attempted by income level. The central concept is inflation strain , or the difference between the percentage change in prices and incomes as a percentage of change in incomes. Trends in prices are derived from United States Bureau of Labor Statistics data on lower and higher family budgets , admittedly subject to significant error, but the best we have. Equivalent income trends are estimated from data reported in the P-60 series of the United States Bureau of the Census. Two findings are indicated. The first is that both higher and lower budget families experienced inflation strain, although the strain, of course, was substantially greater for lower budget families. The second finding is that the primary source of strain for the lower budget families was food , whereas the primary source of strain for the higher budget family was taxes , both income and Social Security taxes. The richer are getting poorer more slowly than the poor. Limitations of the techniques and data are analyzed.     

本轮经济周期波动特征与2005年经济走势分析

近两年,我国经济在加快结构调整中保持了较快的增长势头,2003年和2004年GDP增长分别达到9．3％和9．5％,全社会固定资产投资增长高达27．7％和25．8％,出现局部经济“过热”。2004年以来,政府采取了一系列宏观调控措施并已经取得初步成效,工业生产、投资和进出口在持续高增长后增幅均有所回落,各种价格指数也出现了不同幅度的下降。2005年是宏观调控和经济发展的关键之年,投资是否会出现反弹?通货膨胀的压力是否继续存在?我国经济能否实现可持续的稳定增长已成为人们普遍关心的问题。     

European Technology,Trade and Income Changes for 1975–85: An Intercountry Input–Output Decomposition

This paper refines, develops and applies input–output (IO) decomposition analysis: by providing it with a unique intercountry perspective, by concentrating on explaining income growth, and by systematically separating the effects of trade structure changes from the effects of technology and preference changes. The resulting matrix formula distinguishes six components and is applied to a set of European Community (EC) intercountry IO tables for 1975 and 1985 with 25 sectors and eight EC countries. Because GDP growth is analyzed in nominal terms, macro-economic demand growth is found to be the most important component. The other five components relate to the effects of coefficient changes. Their sizes are smaller, but significant and widely different between sectors and countries, which shows that there is clear potential for effective sector policies.     

Job Insecurity and the Difficulty of Regaining Employment: An Empirical Study of Unemployment Expectations

It is widely assumed that British workers have become more insecure over he last decade. This paper sets out to establish whether the popular assumption is correct. We examine changes in measures of workers' insecurity using direct measures of their unemployment expectations, using data colleted by the Social Change and Economic Life Initiative (SCELI) in 1986 and by the Skills Survey (SS) in 1997. The paper also investigates how closely subjective measures of insecurity are related to objective measures commonly used as proxies, and analyses how these expectations are determined. It finds that: i. In aggregate job insecurity, measured as the expected risk of job loss, has changed little, while the expected difficulty of regaining employment has fallen over the last decade. ii. Job insecurity has increased among non-manual workers, while it has fallen among non-manual workers, who were traditionally less secure in the first place. iii. Unemployment in the external labour market has a large impact onindividuals' expectations of unemployment and on their expectations of re-employment. vi. There is a strong positive association between a job being temporary and insecurity. It is valid, therefore, to see a possible problem of rising subjective insecurity if there is a rising proportion of temporary workers in the labour force. v. Job tenure and job insecurity follow a U-shaped relationship. vi. The fall in unemployment from 1986 to 1997 would have been predicted to induce a substantial fall in job insecurity, that this fall did not materialise suggests that there has been an upward shift in job nsecurity.     

中国出口生产外溢性的实证研究--1996～2001年省际的数据分析

本文利用近几年我国各省的经济数据，运用paneldata分析方法研究了我国出口生产的外溢性问题。分析结果显示，我国出口生产部门比其他生产部门有更高的要素边际生产力，但是出口部门并没有通过外溢效应将自己的优势扩散到其他部门。文中指出我国的贸易方式和出口生产企业的结构可能影响了出口外溢性的实现。     

Monetary Frameworks and Institutional Constraints: UK Monetary Policy Reaction Functions, 1985–2003

Monetary policy reaction functions are estimated for the UK over three periods – 1985–90, 1992–97 and 1997–2003 – in order to disentangle two effects: the switch from an emphasis on exchange rate stabilization to inflation targeting, and the introduction of instrument-independence in 1997. The external factors considered include US as well as German interest rates, and this leads to the identification of 'domestic' and 'international' models of the reaction function. The results suggest that it is the changes in the institutional arrangements rather than those in the targeting regime which have been decisive in the development of policy in this period.     

Exchange Rates and Prices: Sources of Sterling Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations 1973–94

We attempt to identify the sources of UK exchange rate and relative consumer price fluctuations by applying the Clarida and Gali (1994) extension of the Blanchard and Quah (1989) structural VAR method to UK data. We (r)nd that IS shocks underlay the majority of the variance of sterling real and nominal exchange rates. Aggregate supply (AS) shocks were the second most important source of such variations, while LM shocks played an extremely limited role. In contrast, the variance of UK relative consumer prices primarily reflected LM shocks.     

The Effects of a Separation of Ownership from Control on UK Listed Firms: An Empirical Analysis

There has been a wide‐ranging debate concerning the effects of the separation of management and ownership of large firms. Given recent issues concerning corporate remuneration, this debate is as relevant and possibly more so today as it has ever been. Theoretically, as the ownership of a firm becomes more diverse, the management of the firm will have more discretion and opportunity to act in accordance with their own interests at the expense of those of the shareholders. This paper considers the effect of a separation of ownership from control on 406 UK listed firms. Simultaneous equations are used to test for a relationship between the percentage of shares owned by significant outsiders and insiders and the performance of the firm. A number of authors have suggested that there may be a significant relationship between these variables. The analysis conducted in this study supports the view that there is a relationship between ownership structure and firm performance. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the UK: Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970–1998

We estimate quarterly dynamic housing demand and investment supply models for Sweden and the UK for the sample period 1970–1998, using an Error Correction Method (ECM). To facilitate comparisons of results between Sweden and the UK we model both countries identically with approximately almost the similar type of exogenous variables. The long–run income elasticities for Sweden and the UK are constrained to be 1.0, respectively. The long–run semi–elasticity for interest rates are 2.1 and 0.9 for Sweden and the UK. The speed of adjustment on the demand side is 0.12 and 0.23, while on the supply side it is 0.06 and 0.48 for Sweden and the UK, respectively. Granger causality tests indicate that income Granger causes house prices for Sweden, while for the UK there is also feedback from house prices to income. House prices Granger cause financial wealth for Sweden, while for the UK it is vice–versa. House prices cause household debt for Sweden, while for the UK there is a feedback from debt. Interest rates Granger cause house prices for the UK and Sweden. In both countries Tobin's q Granger cause housing investment. Generally, the diagnostic tests indicate that the model specifications were satisfactory to the unknown data generating process.     

Talking Business: An Actor‐Centred Analysis of Business Agendas for Local Economic Development

Much of the recent literature about local governance of Britain’s cities has examined the power of a newly evolving ‘business elite’. However, in trying to understand changing governance forms, these analyses have generally lacked sensitivity to the role of actors (businesspeople) and their representative organizations. Analytical categories drawn from social movement theory (SMT) are introduced to develop a more actor‐centred approach to the role of business interests in urban management. While not attempting to claim that business represents a social movement within Britain’s cities, it does illuminate how effectively or otherwise businesspeople develop an identity based around their representative organizations and specific business agendas, define non‐business actors as opponents, and deploy and implement the agendas they create. We then use these SMT categories to examine the creation of business agendas in three English towns – Barnsley, Mansfield and Accrington.     

会计稳健性、企业生命周期与投资效率——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

基于2010至2013年沪深A股上市公司的数据,实证检验了不同生命周期企业会计稳健性对资本投资效率的影响,结果表明:第一,不区分企业生命周期阶段时,会计稳健性能够显著降低企业总的非效率投资和投资过度,但对投资不足的作用不显著;第二,成长期和成熟期企业存在投资不足的样本组中,会计稳健性加剧了企业的投资不足,衰退期企业存在投资不足的样本组中会计稳健性的作用则相反;第三,成长期、成熟期和衰退期企业投资过度样本组中,会计稳健性对投资过度存在显著的抑制作用,且该作用在衰退期企业最大,成长期次之,成熟期最小。     

Irrational Expectations, Unclearing Markets and a Business Cycle That Won't Go Away: The Recent School of New Classical Economists Comes a Cropper on Basic Economic Facts

Abstract . The assumptions and conclusions of New Classical Macroeconomics (NCM) are critically examined. NCM grew out of the alleged failure of the Keynesian school to deal with the problems of stagflation of the 1970s. The two fundamental ideas of the NCM are the rational expectations hypothesis and the theory of instantaneous market clearing. According to the NCM, fiscal and monetary policies will achieve desired results if they are unanticipated. Business cycles are thought to be results of imperfect information on the part of rational agents (people). The NCM has been severely criticized by such prominent economists as Arrow, Tobin and Thurow.     

Education,Occupation and Career Expectations: Determinants of the Gender Pay Gap for UK Graduates*

Despite anti‐discrimination policies, women are paid 20% less then men in the UK. A large proportion of this wage gap is usually left unexplained. In this paper, I investigate whether the unexplained component is due to mis‐specification. Using a sample of recent UK graduates, I examine the role of choice variables (subject of study and occupation) as well as career expectations and aspirations. The evidence indicates that women are more altruistic and less career‐oriented than men. Career break expectations, for example, explain 10% of the gender wage gap in the favoured model. By omitting attitudinal variables, most studies are likely to overestimate the unexplained component of the gender wage gap. Women with a more traditional view concerning childrearing are also found to have less intensive search behaviour. Since aspirations may reflect perceived discrimination or social pressure, current legislations are unlikely to reduce the gender wage gap.     

Adjustment, Stabilisation and the Analysis of the Employment Structure in Turkey: An Input- Output Approach

The aim of the paper is to examine the effects on employment of the large-scale structural adjustment programme undertaken by Turkey from the early 1980s onwards. In this respect, we particularly analyse how appropriate the choices of factor intensity after structural adjustment programme have been in the domestic production in comparison with the availability of domestic factor endowment. Our findings show that foreign trade in intermediate goods creates extra use of domestic labour, which can be considered as the labour cost of importing intermediate goods. This is the case in the majority of industries in the pre- and post-liberalisation period in Turkey. However, the capacity of using extra labour as a result of importing intermediate goods appeared to have decreased in the post-liberalisation period.