基于锁模的地区经济周期波动同步化实证分析

本文采用我国6个经济划分区1952～2004年的年度GDP数据,通过频域方法分析了我国地区经济周期波动的同步化趋势,并运用Granger因果关系检验、脉冲反应、方差分解以及非线性检验等实证研究了形成这种趋势的原因,结果表明,地区经济波动之间具有非线性锁模(mode-lock)发生的必要条件,这意味着锁模这一内部机制是造成我国地区经济周期同步化现象的可能原因之一。     

Public Schools and In-migration in North Carolina Counties, 1975–80

Abstract . The migration model presented in this paper indicates (hat the academic quality of public schools, independent of their racial composition, is an important determinant of in-migration in North Carolina counties. The failure to control for school quality is shown to lead to a significant overestimate of the negative impact of school racial mix. These results accord with the Tiebout Hypothesis and with a growing body of other research which suggests that the distributions of public services and other amenities are the principal determinants of recent migration patterns in the U.S.     

考虑非期望产出的能源效率同经济增长的实证分析

本文选取2000-2016年全国各省份面板数据,利用DEA-Malmquist指数方法分别测算了考虑环境因素和不考虑环境因素的全要素生产力,t检验结果显示效率值差别显著,因此在测算投入产出效率过程中有必要考虑非期望产出环境指标。样本期间各省份全要素生产力迅速提高,由于纯技术效率低,西部地区全要素生产力和能源效率明显低于东部地区,能源效率与全要素生产力显著相关,尤其与纯技术效率相关性比较强,因此发展经济首要任务是提高科学技术水平。     

European Technology,Trade and Income Changes for 1975–85: An Intercountry Input–Output Decomposition

This paper refines, develops and applies input–output (IO) decomposition analysis: by providing it with a unique intercountry perspective, by concentrating on explaining income growth, and by systematically separating the effects of trade structure changes from the effects of technology and preference changes. The resulting matrix formula distinguishes six components and is applied to a set of European Community (EC) intercountry IO tables for 1975 and 1985 with 25 sectors and eight EC countries. Because GDP growth is analyzed in nominal terms, macro-economic demand growth is found to be the most important component. The other five components relate to the effects of coefficient changes. Their sizes are smaller, but significant and widely different between sectors and countries, which shows that there is clear potential for effective sector policies.     

Job Insecurity and the Difficulty of Regaining Employment: An Empirical Study of Unemployment Expectations

It is widely assumed that British workers have become more insecure over he last decade. This paper sets out to establish whether the popular assumption is correct. We examine changes in measures of workers' insecurity using direct measures of their unemployment expectations, using data colleted by the Social Change and Economic Life Initiative (SCELI) in 1986 and by the Skills Survey (SS) in 1997. The paper also investigates how closely subjective measures of insecurity are related to objective measures commonly used as proxies, and analyses how these expectations are determined. It finds that: i. In aggregate job insecurity, measured as the expected risk of job loss, has changed little, while the expected difficulty of regaining employment has fallen over the last decade. ii. Job insecurity has increased among non-manual workers, while it has fallen among non-manual workers, who were traditionally less secure in the first place. iii. Unemployment in the external labour market has a large impact onindividuals' expectations of unemployment and on their expectations of re-employment. vi. There is a strong positive association between a job being temporary and insecurity. It is valid, therefore, to see a possible problem of rising subjective insecurity if there is a rising proportion of temporary workers in the labour force. v. Job tenure and job insecurity follow a U-shaped relationship. vi. The fall in unemployment from 1986 to 1997 would have been predicted to induce a substantial fall in job insecurity, that this fall did not materialise suggests that there has been an upward shift in job nsecurity.     

Monetary Frameworks and Institutional Constraints: UK Monetary Policy Reaction Functions, 1985–2003

Monetary policy reaction functions are estimated for the UK over three periods – 1985–90, 1992–97 and 1997–2003 – in order to disentangle two effects: the switch from an emphasis on exchange rate stabilization to inflation targeting, and the introduction of instrument-independence in 1997. The external factors considered include US as well as German interest rates, and this leads to the identification of 'domestic' and 'international' models of the reaction function. The results suggest that it is the changes in the institutional arrangements rather than those in the targeting regime which have been decisive in the development of policy in this period.     

中国出口生产外溢性的实证研究--1996～2001年省际的数据分析

本文利用近几年我国各省的经济数据,运用paneldata分析方法研究了我国出口生产的外溢性问题。分析结果显示,我国出口生产部门比其他生产部门有更高的要素边际生产力,但是出口部门并没有通过外溢效应将自己的优势扩散到其他部门。文中指出我国的贸易方式和出口生产企业的结构可能影响了出口外溢性的实现。     

Exchange Rates and Prices: Sources of Sterling Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations 1973–94

We attempt to identify the sources of UK exchange rate and relative consumer price fluctuations by applying the Clarida and Gali (1994) extension of the Blanchard and Quah (1989) structural VAR method to UK data. We (r)nd that IS shocks underlay the majority of the variance of sterling real and nominal exchange rates. Aggregate supply (AS) shocks were the second most important source of such variations, while LM shocks played an extremely limited role. In contrast, the variance of UK relative consumer prices primarily reflected LM shocks.     

House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the UK: Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970–1998

We estimate quarterly dynamic housing demand and investment supply models for Sweden and the UK for the sample period 1970–1998, using an Error Correction Method (ECM). To facilitate comparisons of results between Sweden and the UK we model both countries identically with approximately almost the similar type of exogenous variables. The long–run income elasticities for Sweden and the UK are constrained to be 1.0, respectively. The long–run semi–elasticity for interest rates are 2.1 and 0.9 for Sweden and the UK. The speed of adjustment on the demand side is 0.12 and 0.23, while on the supply side it is 0.06 and 0.48 for Sweden and the UK, respectively. Granger causality tests indicate that income Granger causes house prices for Sweden, while for the UK there is also feedback from house prices to income. House prices Granger cause financial wealth for Sweden, while for the UK it is vice–versa. House prices cause household debt for Sweden, while for the UK there is a feedback from debt. Interest rates Granger cause house prices for the UK and Sweden. In both countries Tobin's q Granger cause housing investment. Generally, the diagnostic tests indicate that the model specifications were satisfactory to the unknown data generating process.     

会计稳健性、企业生命周期与投资效率——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

基于2010至2013年沪深A股上市公司的数据,实证检验了不同生命周期企业会计稳健性对资本投资效率的影响,结果表明:第一,不区分企业生命周期阶段时,会计稳健性能够显著降低企业总的非效率投资和投资过度,但对投资不足的作用不显著;第二,成长期和成熟期企业存在投资不足的样本组中,会计稳健性加剧了企业的投资不足,衰退期企业存在投资不足的样本组中会计稳健性的作用则相反;第三,成长期、成熟期和衰退期企业投资过度样本组中,会计稳健性对投资过度存在显著的抑制作用,且该作用在衰退期企业最大,成长期次之,成熟期最小。     

Adjustment, Stabilisation and the Analysis of the Employment Structure in Turkey: An Input- Output Approach

The aim of the paper is to examine the effects on employment of the large-scale structural adjustment programme undertaken by Turkey from the early 1980s onwards. In this respect, we particularly analyse how appropriate the choices of factor intensity after structural adjustment programme have been in the domestic production in comparison with the availability of domestic factor endowment. Our findings show that foreign trade in intermediate goods creates extra use of domestic labour, which can be considered as the labour cost of importing intermediate goods. This is the case in the majority of industries in the pre- and post-liberalisation period in Turkey. However, the capacity of using extra labour as a result of importing intermediate goods appeared to have decreased in the post-liberalisation period.     

Pay Comparability Across and Within UK Boards: An Empirical Analysis of the Cash Pay Awards to CEOs and Other Board Members

Drawing on the literature on social comparison and equity theories, this paper analyses the determinants of, and the relationships between, the cash pay awards of CEOs and other board members for a sample of large UK companies over the period 1992–95. Our results suggest that external labour market and internal (i.e., within board) pay comparisons are important in explaining both CEO and other directors' pay awards. In the case of CEOs, however, there is evidence of an asymmetric adjustment to prior period pay anomalies, whereby the pay of the relatively underpaid executives displays significantly greater sensitivity to external market comparison pay levels. This asymmetric adjustment process results in a 'bidding-up' of average CEO pay relative to other board members over the four year period investigated.     

Transitions to and From Self-employment in Spain: An Empirical Analysis

This paper investigates the influence of individual characteristics and the business cycle on the probability of entry into self-employment and on self-employment duration. We estimate multinomial logit and discrete competing risks models using data from a longitudinal sample of Spanish men for the period 1985–1991. The results indicate that unemployment raises the probability of entering self-employment, but also increases the hazard of leaving self-employment, especially into unemployment. Moreover, receiving unemployment benefits significantly reduces the probability of entering self-employment. Liquidity constraints are important in determining enterpreneurial selection, but only for those who become self-employed with employees.     

企业国际化与经营绩效:基于制造业上市公司的实证研究

运用实证研究,选取制造业中的上市公司为样本,测量企业国际化程度,分析我国不同程度企业国际化经营对经营绩效的影响。得出在国际化初期,国际化程度与企业经营绩效存在正相关关系,由此建议企业采取国际化经营策略提升企业经营业绩。     

制造企业加班问题实证研究——以铁塔制造A公司为例

随着经济全球化的发展,企业竞争越发激烈,为在竞争中占领市场一席之地,保持企业核心竞争力,大部分企业都会采取加班的方式来提高效益,缩减用工成本,追求利润的最大化。跟随时代的进步,劳动者的维权法律意识不断提升,由加班而引起的劳动纠纷也日渐增多,导致企业与员工的劳动关系紧张,长此下去,加班将变成企业的劳动用工风险之一。本文通过以铁塔制造A公司为例对企业加班问题及加班工资引起的劳动争议进行剖析,并对加班问题提出一些合理性的建议,促进企业与员工建立和谐劳动关系。     

An Analysis of Authors and Institutions Contributing to The American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 1981–1993

A bstract . An analysis of academic participation in The American Journal of Economics and Sociology shows that the journal is a major outlet for comprehensive schools which emphasiize undergraduate programs, but others, including large research schools, are well represented. Although the AJES has encouraged interdisciplinary research in the social sciences from its inception, economists are the major contributors. Seventeen foreign countries, forty-five states, and the District of Columbia are represented in the AJES with Eastern, Midwestern, and Western states being the most prominent.     

创作激励、市场竞争与自媒体知识产权产出——基于B站新星计划垂直赛道创作激励政策的实证分析

本文在深入了解B站新星计划垂直赛道政策后,使用python爬取B站2016-2020年B站视频数据,采用固定效应模型,检验了B站创作激励强度与自媒体市场竞争,知识产权产出的影响.研究得出,创作激励强度与自媒体知识产权产出存在显著的正向影响,创作激励强度越高,自媒体的知识产权产出效益越高,并且创作激励强度的增加能够削弱市场竞争程度,即明显发现流量资源倾向于获得高创作激励补贴的视频,存在虹吸效应.本文结合政府补贴与企业创新激励有关主题的基础上,首次提出有关创作激励强度与自媒体市场竞争,知识产权产出的实证分析,通过结合政府补贴激励与企业产出效应相关计算方法,具有极强的先驱性和严谨性.