Are leaders portable?

Does management talent transfer from one company to another? The market certainly seems to think so. Stock prices spike when companies announce new CEOs from a talent generator like General Electric. But how do these executives perform over the long term? The authors studied the careers of 20 former GE executives who went on to lead other major organizations, with strikingly uneven results. Even the best management talent, the authors found, is transferable only if it maps to the challenges of the new environment. More specifically, the authors identified five types of skills that may or may not transfer to a new job: general management human capital, or the skills to gather, cultivate, and deploy financial, technical, and human resources; strategic human capital, or individuals' expertise in cost cutting, growth, or cyclical markets; industry human capital, meaning the technical and regulatory knowledge unique to an industry; relationship human capital, or the extent to which a manager's effectiveness can be attributed to his or her experience working with colleagues or as part of a team; and company-specific human capital, or the knowledge about routines and procedures, corporate culture and informal structures, and systems and processes that are unique to a company. The GE executives' performance as CEOs depended on whether their new organizations were able to leverage each type of skill. The authors'findings challenge the conventional wisdom on human capital, which holds that there are two types of skill: general management, which is readily transferable, and company specific, which is not. In fact, they argue, other types of management capabilities can make a significant contribution to performance, and company-specific skills can be an asset in a new job.     

Are cryptocurrencies homogeneous?

This article investigates if cryptocurrencies returns' are similarly affected by a selection of demand- and supply-side determinants. Homogeneity among cryptocurrencies is tested via a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model where determinants of Bitcoin returns are applied to a sample of 12 cryptocurrencies. The analysis goes beyond existing research by simultaneously covering different periods and design choices of cryptocurrencies. The results show that cryptocurrencies are heterogeneous, apart from some similarities in the impact of technical determinants and cybercrime. The cryptocurrency market displays evidence of substitution effects, and design choices related explain the impact of the determinants of return.     

Are credit ratings procyclical?

This paper studies the influence of the state of the business cycle on credit ratings. In particular, we assess whether rating agencies are excessively procyclical in their assignment of ratings. Our analysis is based on a model of ratings determination that takes into account factors that measure the business and financial risks of firms, in addition to indicators of macroeconomic conditions. Utilizing annual data on all US firms rated by Standard & Poor’s, we find that ratings do not generally exhibit excess sensitivity to the business cycle. In addition, we document that previously reported findings of a secular tightening of ratings standards are not robust to a more complete accounting of systematic changes to measures of risk.     

Are margin traders informed?

The literature offers contradictory views on the informativeness of margin trading using various measures of information content. Utilising data from a Chinese margin‐trading pilot programme initiated in 2010, this paper investigates whether margin traders are informed by directly examining the return predictability of margin‐trading activity. We find that margin‐trading activities cannot positively predict future stock returns. Moreover, we explore some non‐informational trading strategies used by margin traders, e.g., positive‐feedback strategies and moving‐average trading rules. These results suggest that margin traders are noise traders rather than informed traders, and margin trading conveys no new firm‐specific information.     

Are Information Attributes Priced?

A seminal model in finance links cost of equity capital to information precision, composition and dissemination. Using realized returns to proxy for cost of equity capital and the probability of an informed trade (PIN) to proxy for composition, prior research documents results consistent with the model's prediction regarding composition. Nonetheless, prior research that examines the construct validity cautions against the use of future realized returns to proxy for cost of equity capital and recommend r_{DIV_PREM} or r_{PEG_PREM} instead. The authors speculate but do not demonstrate how the results in existing research might be incorrect due to their use of realized returns. This paper provides such evidence. We find that the authors inference regarding PIN is dependent on their choice of realized returns to proxy for cost of equity capital. We also estimate a more complete specification of the model that includes precision and dissemination, and we decompose PIN into its component parts to isolate that portion of PIN that varies with dissemination. These refinements allow for new insights regarding the veracity of the model's predictions. We conclude that cost of equity capital is increasing in composition, and decreasing in dissemination, and find some, albeit not conclusive support, for the prediction that cost of equity capital is decreasing in precision.     

Are inflation expectations rational?

Several recent papers report evidence of an apparent statistical bias in inflation expectations and interpret these findings as overturning the rational expectations hypothesis. In this paper, we investigate the validity of such an interpretation. We present a computational dynamic general equilibrium model capable of generating aggregate behavior similar to the data along several dimensions. By construction, model agents form “rational” expectations. We run a standard regression on equilibrium realizations of inflation and inflation expectations over sample periods corresponding to those tests performed on actual data and find evidence of an apparent bias in inflation expectations. Our experiments suggest that this incorrect inference is largely the product of a small sample problem, exacerbated by short-run learning dynamics in response to infrequent shifts in monetary policy regimes.     

Are busy boards detrimental?

Busy directors have been widely criticized as being ineffective. However, we hypothesize that busy directors offer advantages for many firms. While busy directors may be less effective monitors, their experience and contacts arguably make them excellent advisors. Among IPO firms, which have minimal experience with public markets and likely rely heavily on their directors for advising, we find busy boards to be common and to contribute positively to firm value. Moreover, these positive effects of busy boards extend to all but the most established firms. Benefits are lowest among Forbes 500 firms, which likely require more monitoring than advising.     

Are Odd-Lot Orders Informed?

Using a version of the ITCH data set time stamped to the millisecond, O'Hara, Yao and Ye find that odd-lot trades are highly informed. However, NASDAQ reports trades based on the size of the resting limit order, creating a bias in the count of odd-lot trades. Using ITCH data from 2013, time stamped to the nanosecond, we find that roughly 50% of odd-lot trades are created by the resting limit order and are part of larger marketable orders. We show that odd-lot marketable orders are not more informed than round/mixed lot marketable orders.     

Are IPOs Really Underpriced?

While IPOs have been underpriced by more than 10% during thepast two decades, we find that in a sample of more than 2,000IPOs from 1980 to 1997, the median IPO was significantly overvaluedat the offer price relative to valuations based on industrypeer price multiples. This overvaluation ranges from 14% to50% depending on the peer matching criteria. Cross-sectionalregressions show that "overvalued" IPOs provide high first-dayreturns, but low long-run risk-adjusted returns. These overvaluedIPOs have lower profitability, higher accruals, and higher analystgrowth forecasts than "undervalued" IPOs. Ex post, the projectedhigh growth of overvalued IPOs fails to materialize, while theirprofitability declines from pre-IPO levels. These results suggestIPO investors are deceived by optimistic growth forecasts andpay insufficient attention to profitability in valuing IPOs.     

Are workpaper reviews preparer-specific?

We investigate the potential for preparer specific performance dimensions to influence workpaper reviewer's judgments and actions. In a 2 × 2 experimental design, we manipulate two factors: 1) the amount of time, relative to the budgeted hours, expended by the preparer to complete the workpaper, and 2) preparer interpersonal behaviors during the course of the audit. The participants in our sample consist of 138 Mexican audit managers and seniors representing all four Big 4 public accounting firms. Although the participants reviewed an identical workpaper, the results of our experiment reveal that reviewers wrote significantly fewer(more) review comments and judged it to be of higher(lower) quality when the preparer completed the workpaper under(over) the budgeted time or when the preparer demonstrated good(poor) interpersonal behaviors.     

Will we outlive our money?

Fewer and fewer Americans retire with benefits in the form of life annuities. The author raises key issues regarding the increased importance that uncertainty plays in determining retirement income. The key issues include longevity risk and how savings withdrawals rates will be affected at varying rates of return.     

Are Overconfident CEOs Better Innovators?

Previous empirical work on adverse consequences of CEO overconfidence raises the question of why firms hire overconfident managers. Theoretical research suggests a reason: overconfidence can benefit shareholders by increasing investment in risky projects. Using options‐ and press‐based proxies for CEO overconfidence, we find that over the 1993–2003 period, firms with overconfident CEOs have greater return volatility, invest more in innovation, obtain more patents and patent citations, and achieve greater innovative success for given research and development expenditures. However, overconfident managers achieve greater innovation only in innovative industries. Our findings suggest that overconfidence helps CEOs exploit innovative growth opportunities.     

Are Interlocked Directors Effective Monitors?

This paper examines whether the presence of interlocked directors on a board is associated with weak governance. For a sample of 3,566 firm‐years spanning 2001 to 2003, we find that firms with lower industry‐adjusted firm performance are more likely to have interlocked directors. We document that shareholders react negatively to the formation of director interlocks and find that the presence of interlocked directors is associated with lower than optimal pay‐performance sensitivity of CEO incentive compensation and reduced sensitivity of CEO turnover to firm performance. Collectively, our results suggest that the presence of interlocked directors is indicative of weak governance.     

Are Japanese margin buyers informed?

Using Japanese long sample (1977–2010) market data, we examine whether margin buying is informed trades about future stock returns and whether they are related to undervaluation of the market. We find that margin buying increases when temporary returns are higher contemporaneously. We do not find that Japanese margin buying is well-informed in predicting future permanent changes in stock returns. Further, we find that margin buying is not related to the undervaluation of stock market prices.     

Are central banks' projections meaningful?

Central banks' projections – i.e. forecasts conditional on a given interest rate path – are often criticized on the grounds that their assumptions are inconsistent with the existence of a unique equilibrium in many forward-looking models. The present paper describes three alternative approaches to constructing projections that are not subject to the above criticism, using the New Keynesian model as a reference framework. The three approaches are shown to generate different projections for inflation and output, even though they imply an identical path for the interest rate. The latter result calls into question the meaning and usefulness of such projections.     

Are There Optimal Multiple-Reserve Requirements?

A number of developing countries have adopted deficit finance regimes involving multiple- (currency and bond) reserve requirements. A key characteristic of these regimes is that the real interest rates on reservable bonds are higher than the real return rates on currency, so that the nominal interest rates on the bonds are positive. We seek an efficiency-based explanation for the existence of multiple-reserve regimes and for this key characteristic. We find that there are economies in which some of the efficient allocations can be supported only by multiple-reserve requirements, and that positive nominal bond rates may be needed to support some of these allocations. We also find that there are economies in which allocations supported by multiple-reserve regimes with negative nominal bond rates Pareto dominate single-reserve allocations, even when the latter are efficient relative to other single-reserve allocations. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E42, E58, H62.     

Are interim management statements redundant?

In 2004 the Transparency Directive increased the reporting frequency by mandating the Interim Management Statement (IMS). However, only nine years later, the EU announced that it was making quarterly reporting voluntary again, arguing that IMSs are redundant as they are unlikely to contain any additional information not already required by the Market Abuse Directive (MAD). The current paper tests this argument empirically. For that it collects data on trading statements from a post-MAD pre-IMS year and uses these statements to predict which IMSs are genuinely incremental firm announcements (‘incremental IMSs’) and not simply substitutes for otherwise disclosed trading statements (‘non-incremental IMSs’). It then calculates three-day abnormal return variability and abnormal trading volume associated with incremental and non-incremental IMSs and it makes three observations. First, the introduction of IMSs coincided with a substantial reduction in other trading statements consistent with a large substitution effect between IMSs and non-periodic trading statements. Second, incremental third-quarter IMSs, but not incremental first-quarter IMSs, exhibit significantly positive abnormal return variability and abnormal trading volume, suggesting that the withdrawal of IMSs will involve the loss of some relevant information. Third, higher abnormal return variability and trading volume for non-incremental IMSs, relative to incremental IMSs, are consistent with the argument that a MAD-only regime will ensure the release of most relevant information.     

Are you a collaborative leader?

Social media and technologies have put connectivity on steroids and made collaboration more integral to business than ever. But without the right leadership, collaboration can go astray. Employees who try to collaborate on everything may wind up stuck in endless meetings, struggling to reach agreement. On the other side of the coin, executives who came of age during the heyday of "command and control" management can have trouble adjusting their style to fit the new realities. In their research on top-performing CEOs, Insead professors Ibarra and Hansen have examined what it takes to be a collaborative leader. They've found that it requires connecting people and ideas outside an organization to those inside it, leveraging diverse talent, modeling collaborative behavior at the top, and showing a strong hand to keep teams from getting mired in debate. In this article, they describe tactics that executives from Akamai, GE, Reckitt Benckiser, and other firms use in those four areas and how they foster high-performance collaborative cultures in their organizations.