Future cities in a warming world

More than half the global population are already urban, and the UN and other organisations expect this share to rise in future. However, some researchers argue that the future of cities is far from assured. Cities are not only responsible for 70% or more of the world's CO₂ emissions, but because of their dense concentration of physical assets and populations, are also more vulnerable than other areas to climate change. This paper attempts to resolve this controversy by first looking at how cities would fare in a world with average global surface temperatures 4 °C above pre-industrial levels. It then looks at possible responses, either by mitigation or adaptation, to the threat such increases would entail. Regardless of the mix of adaptation and mitigation cities adopt in response to climate change, the paper argues that peak urbanism will occur over the next few decades. This fall in the urban share of global population will be driven by the rise in biophysical hazards in cities if the response is mainly adaptation, and by the declining attraction of cities (and possibly the rising attraction of rural areas) if serious mitigation is implemented.     

Book reviews

Natural hazards have become increasingly frequent in the Philippines, making the determination of risks associated with large-scale natural hazards and disasters in this area increasingly important. This study developed a method for estimating the risk of disasters from multiple hazards in this country at the province level. The locational probability and consequences of five natural hazards were analyzed over a 30-year period (1982–2011), and the disaster-risk potential of provinces was estimated based on the combined damage cost per capita from five hazards over that period. Information from the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters Emergency Disasters Database (CRED-EMDAT) was used to analyze the areas and populations affected, damage costs, and frequency and duration of five hazards (i.e. meteorological, climatological, hydrological, geophysical, and biological). The estimated values were then presented spatially using a geographic information system. The results suggested that meteorological hazards were the most common hazards affecting most provinces in the Philippines, whereas hydrological hazards produced the most damage. Small island provinces and coastal zones were among the areas with the highest disaster-risk potential. This assessment can aid in decision making with regard to financing disaster prevention schemes and in planning for the increasing occurrences of natural hazard-related disasters.     

The holiday and Yom Kippur War sentiment effects: the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE)

Several empirical studies reveal that holidays generally create positive sentiment in the stock market, whereas negative events, such as wars or disasters, are accompanied by negative sentiment. However, what happens if a negative event occurs on a holiday? In such a case, we expect two conflicting sentiment effects, which may cancel one another out or, alternatively, one effect may dominate the other. The stock market in Israel provides a unique laboratory in which to test these two conflicting effects, as Israel faced a horrible war on the Yom Kippur holiday in 1973—a war whose influence is still strongly felt today. Indeed, we find two robust effects: A strong and significant positive holiday sentiment effect; and a negative war sentiment effect, which dominates the positive holiday effect. These results, which show how sentiment effects are created, are general and can easily be applied to other events and other markets when conflicting sentiment effects occur.     

How do natural and man-made disasters affect international trade? A country-level and industry-level analysis

This study examines the influence of disasters on international trade with a gravity equation model. Four types of disasters will be introduced: natural disasters, technological disasters, political risks, and financial crises. Existing literature implies that any type of disasters can either positively or negatively associated with international trade. The effects of disasters are different across the socioeconomic status of trade pairs and across industries as well as across different types of disasters. Results from country-level and industry-level show that natural disasters reduce international trade flows by raising trading and security costs and hardening borders. In contrast to previous findings, these results show that terrorism activities and technological disasters increase the international trade particularly between developed countries. The econometric specification controls unobserved characteristics of trade pairs and endogeneity problems. Managerial implications and future research are discussed.     

2000: the open century

After a century of wars and revolutions, will the twenty-first century tread the same path, or can we expect to move into a genuinely global century? Any determinist historical optimism or pessimism is groundless. The future of our world is open when we shun self-complacency, thus keeping an open mind to learn from contemporary science as well as from human history, both East and West. Then, we might be led to ask: is modern world civilization of the past three centuries not missing something in over-emphasizing material progress at the expense of the spiritual growth of humans? Present-day politicians are busy adjusting all sorts of domestic and international relations. However important these are, they cannot fulfil the entire mission of any modern society. Artists, scientists, those in various realms of the academy, in education and religious vocations, while helping ourselves and our posterity to seek the meanings of human existence, are bound together in our responsibilities to humanity for the twenty-first century.     

From authenticity to significance: Tourism on the frontier of culture and place

The tourism of the future will include greater demand on the part of citizens of economically emerging nations, as well as on the part of a growing number of retirement age persons in many of the more developed countries. There are important environmental, cultural, and social consequences associated with these demographic shifts. Trendsetters for the tourism of the near future are likely to be well-educated elites who are familiar with travel and comfortable in culturally diverse situations. They will have an understanding of the consequences of global economic development, and will better realize that their participation in tourism comes with a cost to communities and environments through which they pass. They will see value in tourism experiences that support principles of environmental sustainability, heritage preservation and cultural diversity, and human equality. This generation of tourists will have greater choice of travel venues and access to considerably more information on which to base their travel plans, and they will be more likely to expect travel experiences that have breadth as well as depth and that provide opportunities for self-improvement as well as leisure and entertainment.     

不必指望彻底解决中小企业资金荒

我们不能指望中小额贷款公司之类措施彻底解决中小企业融资难的问题,但我们可以指望这些措施在市场基本面转变之前维持局面不至于过度恶化,从而为市场未来的复苏奠定基础。     

Hunting humans: A future for tourism in 2200

This paper offers a future scenario to expose the potential engagement of tourism in the year 2200. Taking a socio-constructionist approach to research and through the analysis of secondary data, it explores current issues and debates concerned with the environment, disasters and depletion of natural resources; social context including movies and entertainment, the media and technology, the evolution of the theme park and cultural transmission; and economical realities, covering poverty vs. world elite and global culture, all of which are seen as drivers of the potential future tourism market. In so doing, it presents a narrative (scenario), provoking the notion that in the year 2200 death and hunting humans will form part of the tourism entertainment industry and a practice carried out by the wealthy-elite, a view backed with substance. It argues, that as a result of past and current engagements with murder, death and human atrocities, and significantly our relationship with death, humans will gradually become more accustomed to death as a form of spectacle, influenced by current entertainment, movies and the media. Death as entertainment by form of detachment (emotionally and physically) will further influence the future fun aspect of hunting humans. Significantly, changes in our natural environment will lead to great challenges, lack of water, depleted food resources and greater disparity between the wealthy and impoverished; all of which will drive the change in our humanly existence. This papers aims to provide a provocative account of the ‘potential future meaning of tourism’, through the application of current knowledge, and significantly, it is our relationship with death and violence that are central, death and violence are becoming diluted and thus, will be a source of future entertainment and a tourism activity – in less humans can reach a level of transcendence that has never been present, to transcend the culture they have created, one that has always witnessed violence as a means to survival. If violence can be detached then we will be presented with a ‘wild card’, a future that is truly out of this world.     

Comparison of farmers’ mental models of the present and the future: A case study of pesticide use

Farmers in developing countries will in the future be confronted with major changes. The ability to cope with these challenges rests on their capability to relate future problems to current behavior. Our approach investigates this capability and consists in comparing mental models of the present and future. The approach moreover enables us to explore whether and how farmers are able to imagine a future differing from the perceived present.Data from previous studies investigating present and future pesticide application were used. In the datasets the mental models of farmers’ livelihood were structured into livelihood capitals (human, health, natural and financial capital), causal relations among the livelihood capitals were derived, and present and future causal relations were compared.The comparison of these causal relations led to six cases, each representing a different degree of dependence of future on present causal relations. The dependence was found to vary among farmers and analyzed livelihood capital. Three types of farmers with differing dependence patterns were identified.The differences found lead to new insights for policy recommendations, depending on farmers focus in their causal relations. We therefore expect that interventions focusing either more on the causes or effects of causal relations will result in a better uptake of knowledge by farmers.     

Low-mobility: The future of transport

Nearly all researchers into the future of global passenger transport assume that both car-ownership and overall vehicular travel will continue to rise. But they also increasingly acknowledge the environmental and resource problems facing vehicular transport, particularly global climate change and oil depletion. In order to meet these challenges, researchers propose a variety of technological solutions, including greatly improved vehicular fuel efficiency, alternative fuels and propulsion systems, and carbon capture and storage. In this paper we question whether these optimistic solutions can be developed and widely deployed in the limited time frame available, and argue instead that not only are ever-rising vehicular mobility levels unlikely to occur, but that the human costs of continuing this approach are also too great. Instead we argue that because transport is a derived demand, we must first articulate a preferred vision of the future, then design an appropriate, sustainable transport system. Finally, we briefly outline what such a low-mobility future transport system would look like, using our own city, Melbourne, Australia, as a case study.     

Risk cultures and dominant approaches towards disasters in seven European countries

This paper builds upon the risk culture concept started with Mary Douglas’ and Aaron Wildavsky’s seminal work on risk and culture. Based upon the empirical results of a qualitative sociological study on sociocultural factors affecting risk perception and crisis communication in seven European countries, a theoretical model, illustrating how differences in disasters framing imply diverse approaches to risk and disaster management, is suggested. According to this framework, culturally bounded assumptions and conventions strongly influence how communities make sense of risks and hazards and how these communities consider some ways of dealing with disasters more appropriate than others. The framework suggested in this article distinguishes between risk cultures of a given society, which do not necessarily respond to nation states. In order to explain differences in how cultures deal with risks and disasters, and to define the main features of our typology, three main interrelated dimensions have been selected: disaster framing, trust in authorities and blaming. By analyzing differences and similarities in how people perceive and interpret disasters, as well as to whom the responsibility for risk prevention and crisis management is attributed, in seven European countries, three specific ideal types of risk cultures emerged: state-oriented risk culture, individual-oriented risk culture and fatalistic risk culture. Implications for crisis management and communication in case of a disaster will be addressed for each of these risk cultures.     

Anticipatory policymaking in global venues: Policy change,adaptation, and the UNFCCC

The subfield of public policy depicts policymaking as reactive process wherein public officials respond to existing social problems. While this depiction holds true in many cases, it fails to account for instances where policy change occurs in anticipation of emerging threats or hazards. “Anticipatory problems” are projected to occur in the future, and it is the prospect of their occurring that generates policy debate. This paper examines the policymaking pattern engendered by anticipatory policy problems, highlighting the ways in which they challenge and support existing assumptions about the process of policy change. To illustrate this distinctive dynamic, this paper will present a case study examining the evolving debate over climate change adaptation policy within United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).     

Auditor Reputation Under Different Negligence Regimes

Do auditor reputation effects evolve the same way under precise negligence as under vague negligence? Or are there differences? We assume that investors update their beliefs on unobservable auditor quality when an auditor discloses an inaccurate report. We call this a reputation effect. A necessary condition for reputation effects to occur is that, ex ante, investors expect ‘good’ auditors to take more care than ‘bad’ auditors such that ‘good’ auditors are less likely to issue an inaccurate report. Consistent with empirical evidence, we assume that wealthier (‘good’) auditors tend to take more care than less wealthy (‘bad’) auditors. We find that under vague negligence, reputation effects will occur, inducing both types of auditor to increase the level of care taken. A ‘good’ auditor is likely to exert excessive care. Then, even in the absence of auditor risk aversion, a (properly defined) liability cap is necessary to induce efficient incentives. A contractual liability cap is preferable to a legally fixed liability cap. Under precise negligence, a ‘good’ auditor will exert the standard of due care. However, a ‘bad’ auditor will also do so if sufficiently wealthy. Consequently, ex ante, investors do not expect different levels of care to be taken or reputation effects to occur. A liability cap is not desirable. This paper highlights the importance of non‐legal sanctions in auditor liability. Finally, it links the ‘reputation’ and ‘deep pocket’ hypotheses, both of which have attempted separately in the past to explain the positive correlation between auditor size and auditor quality.     

The effect of near- versus distant-future mindsets on socially responsible investors’ mutual fund preferences

Socially responsible investing (SRI) has seen tremendous growth in recent years. For SRI investors, choosing among potential SRI investments often requires making trade-offs between social responsibility and financial aspects of the investment. In this study, we examine contexts where investors are more versus less willing to make such trade-offs, specifically in the context of SRI-guided mutual funds among Muslim investors. We expect that priming a near-future mindset will make respondents less likely to trade-off social responsibility for financial considerations, whereas priming a distant-future mindset will make respondents more likely to make such trade-offs. Using a discrete choice experimental design among Saudi Arabian adults, we find support for our hypotheses. Managerial implications and directions for future research are discussed.     

中国银行业应急管理:问题与对策

现代银行机构面临的突发灾难性事件主要来自非经济因素,包括自然灾难性事件与社会危险事件。灾难性事件的严重后果将使人们购买银行产品和服务的信心受挫。中国银行业对应急管理存在着强烈的现实需求。目前,银行业应急管理存在的问题主要有:缺少处理金融突发事件的专门法律、法规;应急预案不够全面;灾备建设相对滞后等。综合看来,银行业应急管理的问题主要集中在应急预防阶段。应尽快推出《金融应急法》和《突发金融事件应急处理条例》,以提高立法层次;完善应急预案,加强应急演练,以增强实战能力;完善灾难备份系统,加强业务连续性。     

Is neuroaccounting waiting in the wings? An essay

This paper discusses a recently published handbook on neuroeconomics ( and ) and extends the discussion to reasons why this newly emerging discipline should be of interest to behavioral accounting researchers. We evaluate the achieved and potential contribution of neuroeconomics to the study of human economic behavior, and examine what behavioral accounting researchers can learn from neuroeconomics and whether we should expect to see a similar sub-field emerge within behavioral accounting in the near future. We conclude that a separate sub-field within behavioral accounting is not likely in the near future due mostly to practical reasons. However, the behavioral accounting researcher would do well to follow research in this discipline closely, and behavioral accountants in the near future are likely to collaborate with neuroscientists and neuroeconomists on questions of mutual interest.     

Equity market response to natural disasters: Does firm's corporate social responsibility make difference?

This study investigates the role of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in explaining firms' stock performance in the wake of natural disasters in the United States. Using event study and multivariate regression analyses, we find that market performance of CSR firms is better than that of non-CSR firms when such disasters occur. We also highlight the importance of environmentally friendly practices in driving the performance of CSR firms. Our results indicate that firms practicing environmental CSR are more resilient to such disasters than nonenvironmental CSR firms. Cross-sectional analyses show that such positive market reaction of CSR firms is more pronounced when firms have low financial constraints, low information asymmetry, and high social capital.     

A characterisation of the methodology of qualitative research on the nature of perceived risk: trends and omissions

The issue of how risk is ‘perceived’ is one of significant research interest and immense practical importance. In spite of this wide interest, however, it is probably fair to say that most emerging ‘risk’ crises – whether related to natural or technological phenomena – come as a surprise to researchers and to society as a whole. Prediction of human responses to novel potential hazards (or novel manifestations of old hazards) is neither reliable nor complete; strategies to ameliorate inappropriate concerns when they arise (or to make realistic inappropriate absences of concern) do not appear totally effective. It therefore seems apt to ask the question: just what have we learned about ‘risk perception’? In this paper we conduct a structured review of qualitative research on perceived risk – to be followed by a subsequent analysis of quantitative research in a later paper – focusing upon methodological issues. Qualitative research often precedes quantitative research, and ideally informs it; it seeks depth and meaning from few subjects rather than identifying patterns within larger samples and populations. Without adequate qualitative research, quantitative research risks misanalysis of the target phenomenon, at the very least by the omission of relevant factors and inclusion of irrelevant ones. Our analysis here – of qualitative studies conducted across a range of disciplines, not all of which will be familiar to the readers of this journal – suggests that this research suffers from an incomplete coverage of the ‘risk perception universe’, typified by a focus on atypical hazards and study samples. We summarise the results of this research, while pointing out its limitations, and draw conclusions about future priorities for research of this type.     

From risk to vulnerability: the role of perceived adaptive capacity for the acceptance of contested infrastructure

Infrastructure projects such as repositories for nuclear waste or hazardous waste sites impose risks (in the form of potential burdens or losses) over extensive timescales. These risks change dynamically over time and so, potentially, does their management. Societies and key actors go through learning processes and subsequently may be better able to deal with related challenges. However, social scientific research on the acceptance of such projects is mainly concerned with (static) risk perception issues and does not include dynamic aspects. Adaptive capacity, which is part of the concept of vulnerability, therefore represents a promising complementing facet for this line of research. The aim of this paper is to examine the role of perceived adaptive capacity (PAC) for the acceptance of contested long-term infrastructure for the two issues of nuclear and hazardous waste. In an online experimental survey (N?=?300) examining either the acceptance of a nuclear waste repository or of a hazardous waste site, we demonstrate that (i) PAC can be separated empirically as a psychological construct from risk and benefit perception, and (ii) PAC explains a significant additional share of variance in the acceptance of both waste types beyond risk and benefit perception. Furthermore, we report what adaptation mechanisms of PAC participants expect to occur in the future. We conclude that such a dynamic perspective yields important insights in understanding individual decision-making regarding long-term infrastructure projects.     

The challenges of longitudinal surveys in the flood risk domain

Abstract

There has been much research regarding the perceptions, preferences, behaviour, and responses of people exposed to flooding and other natural hazards. Cross-sectional surveys have been the predominant method applied in such research. While cross-sectional data can provide a snapshot of a respondent’s behaviour and perceptions, it cannot be assumed that the respondent’s perceptions are constant over time. As a result, many important research questions relating to dynamic processes, such as changes in risk perceptions, adaptation behaviour, and resilience cannot be fully addressed by cross-sectional surveys. To overcome these shortcomings, there has been a call for developing longitudinal (or panel) datasets in research on natural hazards, vulnerabilities, and risks. However, experiences with implementing longitudinal surveys in the flood risk domain (FRD), which pose distinct methodological challenges, are largely lacking. The key problems are sample recruitment, attrition rate, and attrition bias. We present a review of the few existing longitudinal surveys in the FRD. In addition, we investigate the potential attrition bias and attrition rates in a panel dataset of flood-affected households in Germany. We find little potential for attrition bias to occur. High attrition rates across longitudinal survey waves are the larger concern. A high attrition rate rapidly depletes the longitudinal sample. To overcome high attrition, longitudinal data should be collected as part of a multisector partnership to allow for sufficient resources to implement sample retention strategies. If flood-specific panels are developed, different sample retention strategies should be applied and evaluated in future research to understand how much-needed longitudinal surveying techniques can be successfully applied to the study of individuals threatened by flooding.