Delivering the Transport Renaissance Locally

This article focuses on how real transport change might be achieved through effective delivery of good local transport plans. It concentrates on two questions: (1) What has changed in the institutional, policy and political environment and what can we learn from those changes as we face the future challenges? (2) How well can we expect people at large to understand the nature of the problems, and how can we best engage to change their travel behaviour?     

The long-term future of the great barrier reef

Long-term participative regional planning is a relatively new and developing field in Australia. To conduct a futures project that seeks to address the serious matters of reef-related food production, jobs, recreation, cultural heritage and the conservation of the Great Barrier Reef with over 60 organizations participating, is not without its challenges. This futures project—the 25-year Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area Strategic Plan Development Project—has been described by the IUCN (The World Conservation Union) as having established a world model in participative regional planning for ecologically sustainable use of a natural resource. This article deals with the following questions: Why was the futures project needed? What was done? How was it achieved? What else needs to occur now and in the future? And, so what?     

Deconstructing the information era

Information theory, while claiming universality, ignores civilisation and spiritual perspectives of knowledge. Moreover, the information society heralded by many as the victory of humanity over darkness is merely capitalism disguised but now commodifying selves as well. This essay argues for a more communicative approach wherein futures can be created through authentic global conversations--a gaia of civilisations. Current trends, however, do not lie in that direction. Instead, we are moving towards temporal and cultural impoverishment. Is the Web then the iron cage or can a global ohana (family, civil society) be created through cybertechnologies? Answering these and other questions are possible only when we move to layers of analysis outside conventional understandings of information and the information era and to a paradigm where communication and culture are central.     

Ways of knowing, culture, communication and the pedagogies of the future

This article focuses on how cultures are embedded in diverse ways of knowing and how individuals teach (formal, action research, spiritual) and learn the world (action, science, technique or gnosis) differently. We present case-studies or stories of teaching and learning futures and futures generations. These stories tell the fundamental difficulties we face in teaching, communicating and learning across civilization, profession, worldview and pedagogical style. We offer a futures method, causal layered analysis, as one way to enter different knowing spaces. The educational challenge ahead of us is to pass on the rich diversity of culture and ways of knowing to future generations.     

New development: 4P recommendations for implementing change,from research in hospitals

How are hospital staff involved in process improvement initiatives such as Lean? What can we learn from Lean implementation experiences about the sustainability of such initiatives? The authors considered such questions in a study of workplace change in Australia and Canada. They found that Lean is more likely to be sustained when leaders adopted the 4P recommendations presented in this article.     

Scenarios in anthropology: reflections on possible futures of the Suriname Maroons

Traditional concern with social change requires anthropologists to analyze linkages between past, present, and possible future events. Anthropological methods can contribute to speculation about the future because they incorporate what most extrapolations and forecasts lack: (1) uncertainty and surprise, (2) people’s own mental models of the future, and (3) a detailed understanding of specific cultures and the diversity within these cultures. The author argues that Scenario Planning is a useful method that allows ethnographic data to be used for thinking about the future. Scenarios are stories about possible, alternative futures that incorporate human diversity and uncertainty. How Scenario Planning works as an analytical and policy tool is explained and then demonstrated with the example of forest peoples in Suriname, called Maroons. Qualitative data from anthropological fieldwork is used to reveal Maroon perspectives on the future; identify driving forces that might influence their future; and speculate about the different directions these forces may go. Two scenarios are presented and their implications discussed. The article concludes with reflections on the advantages and disadvantages of Scenario Planning as a method in anthropology, and on the contribution that anthropology can make to development policy that envisions and plans for alternative, surprising futures.     

The future of foresight professionals: Results from a global Delphi study

How will foresight practice evolve into the next decade and beyond? How might its supply and demand factors self-organize? In 2012 a real-time Delphi study, entitled, “The Certification of Professional Futurists 2030,” was conducted among 142 experts from 29 countries to debate the forces that might diminish or enhance futures work. The study consisted of 14 projections out to the year 2030, ranging from whether the global futures field might “employ a viable form of certification for professional futurists,” to whether it might “share a common accepted understanding of futures assumptions, theory, methods, knowledge, and ethics.” Panelists identified themselves with various futures associations. This article presents the findings, including where there is dissent and consensus in the futures field over the likelihood, impact and desirability of the professionalization of its practice. Further scale development using factor analysis, ordered by the theory of competitive advantage, produced a scenario model of three market forces: assimilation, academicisation, or certification. The third force of professional certification by 2030 was deemed least likely and less desirable. This wide ranging survey therefore offers the futures field a common conversation protocol to rethink how it might redesign its value chain and differentiate itself against other professions.     

The Namesake: Futures; futures studies; futurology; futuristic; foresight—What's in a name?

The term we used to describe the study of alternative futures is important. Disciplines and discourses do not emerge from a vacuum but have a history and a cultural context; and their names can hide as much as they reveal. This paper examines such terms as ‘futurology’ and ‘foresight’, and argues that to emphasise plurality and diversity the study of the future is best served by the moniker ‘futures studies’. It suggests that remembering the history of futures discourse is necessary to resolve the crisis of identity and meaning, and frequent fruitless reinvention, of the field. Finally, it presents Sardar's four laws of futures studies: futures studies are wicked (they deal largely with complex, interconnected problems), MAD (emphasise Mutually Assured Diversity), sceptical (question dominant axioms and assumptions) and futureless (bear fruit largely in the present).     

Scanning the periphery

Companies often face new rivals, technologies, regulations, and other environmental changes that seem to come out of left field. How can they see these changes sooner and capitalize on them? Such changes often begin as weak signals on what the authors call the periphery, or the blurry zone at the edge of an organization's vision. As with human peripheral vision, these signals are difficult to see and interpret but can be vital to success or survival. Unfortunately, most companies lack a systematic method for determining where on the periphery they should be looking, how to interpret the weak signals they see, and how to allocate limited scanning resources. This article provides such a method-a question-based framework for helping companies scan the periphery more efficiently and effectively. The framework divides questions into three categories: learning from the past (What have been our past blind spots? What instructive analogies do other industries offer? Who in the industry is skilled at picking up weak signals and acting on them?); evaluating the present (What important signals are we rationalizing away? What are our mavericks, outliers, complainers, and defectors telling us? What are our peripheral customers and competitors really thinking?); and envisioning the future (What future surprises could really hurt or help us? What emerging technologies could change the game? Is there an unthinkable scenario that might disrupt our business?). Answering these questions is a good first step toward anticipating problems or opportunities that may appear on the business horizon. The article concludes with a self-test that companies can use to assess their need and capability for peripheral vision.     

The why, what, and how of management innovation

For organizations like GE, P&G, and Visa, management innovation is the secret to success. But what is management innovation? Why is it so important? And how can other companies learn to become management innovators? This article from expert Gary Hamel answers those questions. A management breakthrough can deliver a strong advantage to the innovating company and produce a major shift in industry leadership. Few companies, however, have been able to come up with a formal process for fostering management innovation. The biggest challenge seems to be generating truly unique ideas. Four components can help: a big problem that demands fresh thinking, creative principles or paradigms that can reveal new approaches, an evaluation of the conventions that constrain novel thinking, and examples and analogies that help redefine what can be done. No doubt there are existing management processes in your organization that exacerbate the big problems you're hoping to solve. So how can you learn to identify them? Start by asking a series of questions for each one. For instance, Who owns the process? What are its objectives? What are the metrics for success? What are the decision-making criteria? How are decisions communicated, and to whom? After documenting these details, ask the people involved with the process to weigh in. This exploration may reveal opportunities to reinventyour management processes. A management innovation, the author says, creates long-lasting advantage when it meets at least one of three conditions: It is based on a novel principle that challenges the orthodoxy; it is systemic, involving a range of processes and methods; or it is part of a program of invention, where progress compounds over time. So far, management in this century isn't much different from management in the previous one, says Hamel. Therein lies the opportunity. You can wait for a competitor to come upon the next great management process and drive you out of business-or you can become a management innovator right now.     

Engineering,a civilising influence?

The global environment is increasingly under threat and we face a challenge with little time to respond. Are we prepared to change the actions and attitudes that have led to this parlous situation, and if we are, how do we do it? Is the world ready for a more ecologically benign, less economically driven, peaceful and spiritually oriented way of living? My challenge lies in higher education. How do you encourage such values in a tertiary education system which has spent many years applying and rewarding a ‘respond to the market’ discourse? My responses are grounded in transformative education research with large diverse cohorts of first year engineering students. This paper also uses a critical futures methodology, Causal Layered Analysis, to update my concerns about Australian engineering education and the profession, using two recent reports. The aim is to offer constructive insights that may be transferable to educators in other contexts.     

How to write a great business plan

Every seasoned investor knows that detailed financial projections for a new company are an act of imagination. Nevertheless, most business plans pour far too much ink on the numbers - and far too little on the information that really matters. Why? William Sahlman suggests that a great business plan is one that focuses on a series of questions. These questions relate to the four factors critical to the success of every new venture: the people, the opportunity, the context, and the possibilities for both risk and reward. The questions about people revolve around three issues: What do they know? Whom do they know? and How well are they known? As for opportunity, the plan should focus on two questions: Is the market for the venture's product or service large or rapidly growing (or preferably both)? and Is the industry structurally attractive? Then, in addition to demonstrating an understanding of the context in which their venture will operate, entrepreneurs should make clear how they will respond when that context inevitably changes. Finally, the plan should look unflinchingly at the risks the new venture faces, giving would-be backers a realistic idea of what magnitude of reward they can expect and when they can expect it. A great business plan is not easy to compose, Sahlman acknowledges, largely because most entrepreneurs are wild-eyed optimists. But one that asks the right questions is a powerful tool. A better deal, not to mention a better shot at success, awaits entrepreneurs who use it.     

Total recall : aliens, ‘others’ and amnesia in postmodernist thought

Postmodernism sees itself as a champion of plurality and seeks to represent voices of ‘other cultures’ which have been suppressed, neglected or marginalized by modernity. But is postmodernism necessarily a good thing for non-Western cultures? Is it, in its rejection of all metanarrative, its overriding concern for the present at the expense of history, its insistence on blurring the distinction between image and reality, and its absolute moral relativity, a liberating force or a new form of cultural assimilation? Is postmodernism totally divorced from modernist philosophy or is it simply the cultural logic of secularism? This essay explores these questions on the basis of four new books: Contingency, Irony and Solidarity by Richard Rorty;¹ The Condition of Postmodernity by David Harvey;² Contemporary Political Culture: Politics in a Postmodern Age by John R. Gibbons (editor);³ and Universal Abandon? The Politics of Postmodernism by Andrew Ross (editor).⁴     

Intercultural communication, interreligious dialogue, and peace

In an increasingly interdependent world that includes great cultural, ethnic, racial, national, and religious diversity, it is imperative that we find ways to come together as a human family while still honoring and respecting our many diversities. In the nuclear age, and now the bioterrorism age, and in the wake of September 11, 2001, it is also imperative that we find ways to resolve our conflicts short of violence. The fields of intercultural communication and interreligious dialogue provide important tools to help people deal with all these diversities in more positive ways that increase understanding between people and can enrich people’s lives. People must still resolve their conflict issues, but understanding other people’s cultures, negotiating styles, and religions will prevent unnecessary misinterpretations of other people’s behavior, which can exacerbate conflicts that already exist. This article is concerned with many positive approaches and tools for dealing with diversity from the fields of intercultural communication and interreligious dialogue as these pertain to creating more peaceful futures. It is a basic hypothesis of this article that a more peaceful future requires adoption, by people worldwide, of a dynamic, interdependent, complex (not homogenized) whole systems’ worldview, which honors both our unity and interdependence, as well as our diversity—of races, ethnicities, cultures, nationalities, and religions.

Our generation has arrived at the threshold of a new era in human history: the birth of a global community. Modern communications, trade, and international relations as well as the security and environmental dilemmas we all face make us increasingly interdependent. No one can live in isolation. Thus, whether we like it or not, our vast and diverse human family must finally learn to live together. Individually and collectively we must assume a greater sense of Universal Responsibility.

The XIVth Dalai Lama

No peace among the nations without peace among the religions. No peace among the religions without dialogue among the religions.

Hans Kuhn     

Futures: A question of values-consciousness-choices

How important is the quality of values, worldviews, consciousness and choices in the theory and praxis of futures studies and the creation of possible futures? This paper is based on an unpublished Ph.D. Thesis (that is now accessible on the ADT database on the internet), a case study about the evolution of values, consciousness and choices in 12 Australian women's lives. It contains a summary of the impact of the Women's Liberation Movement on these women's values and consciousness, their current values and consciousness, as well as some of their hopes and concerns for the future. Many of the value priorities these women share stand in remarkable contrast to mainstream patriarchal ethics. These women's values also find themselves in uneasy relation to patriarchal worldviews, future visions and futures studies and in important ways surpass them. Based on my research, I propose questions and suggestions in regards to futures studies.     

CRM done right

Disappointed by the high costs and elusive benefits, early adopters of customer relationship management systems came, in the post dot-com era, to view the technology as just another overhyped IT investment whose initial promise would never be fulfilled. But this year, something unexpected is happening. System sales are rising, and executives are reporting satisfaction with their CRM investments. What's changed? A wide range of companies are successfully taking a pragmatic, disciplined approach to CRM. Rather than use it to transform entire businesses, they've directed their investments toward solving clearly defined problems within their customer relationship cycle. The authors have distilled the experiences of these CRM leaders into four questions that all companies should ask themselves as they launch their own CRM initiatives: Is the problem strategic? Is the system focused on the pain point? Do we need perfect data? What's the right way to expand an initial implementation? The questions reflect a new realism about when and how to deploy CRM to best advantage. Understanding that highly accurate and timely data are not required everywhere in their businesses, CRM leaders have tailored their real-time initiatives to those customer relationships that can be significantly enhanced by "perfect" information. Once they've succeeded with their first targeted CRM project, they can use it as a springboard for solving additional problems. CRM, in other words, is coming to resemble any other valuable management tool, and the keys to successful implementation are also becoming familiar: strong executive and business-unit leadership, careful strategic planning, clear performance measures, and a coordinated program that combines organizational and process changes with the application of new technology.     

Sexual harassment . . . some see it . . . some won't

Is sexual harassment a serious issue for managers, and does it occur as much in business as the popular press would have us believe? How difficult will it be to implement the newly issued EEOC guidelines? Out of a joint survey with Redbook magazine, HBR takes a look at these and other questions. Eliza Collins and Timothy Blodgett explore definitions of harassment, analyze respondents' replies, and suggest ways to counter the problem.     

CFO驭变

从低调潜行到"首席忽悠",2012,看知名CFO如何演绎变"化"财道。天下武功,无坚不破,唯快不破。对公司理财而言,为企业创造价值,已成CFO共识,但在瞬息万变的商业环境中,唯有拥有应对变化的快速反映能力,才能真正赢。任何武功,都有自己的不足,防守的再好,也有破解方法,只要意识、攻、守、应机变化等速度远远高于对方,势必游刃有余。公司理财也是如此,现实工作中面临的种种困惑不仅仅要求CFO"武功"高强,要想轻松驾驭变"化",必须具有快速化解困惑的能力,才能发挥"武功"的威力。     

Bridging anticipation skills and intercultural competences as a means to reinforce the capacity of global citizens for learning to learn together

The view of the authors is that, in response to challenges created in many countries by the coexistence of communities of different origins and cultures, living together in peace requires a capacity to learn together and to navigate a plurality of cultures but also a plurality of futures.To explore this idea, a research has been conducted to identify future-oriented methodologies that can sustain activities in such fields as the culture of peace and global citizenship education. Such methodologies as Causal Layered Analysis, the Sarkar game, Transformative Scenario Planning and the framework of Futures Literacy are examined in relation to their added value for intercultural competences. The paper finishes on the presentation and analysis of a case study on a foresight participative workshop held with young people in Africa.The four methodologies and the case study presented in this paper provide, in our view, a strong impetus to further explore spaces where intercultural competences and the discipline of anticipation can be hybridized. Such hybridity seems to correspond to what is required of citizens in a globalizing world where solutions must not only be based on long term perspectives but also be shared across national, cultural, ethnic or religious boundaries.     

Confronting macrosocial worries: Worry about environmental problems and proactive coping among a group of young volunteers

Studies indicate that young people's interest in and worries about global issues, including environmental problems, often are connected with pessimism and inactivity. The purpose of this interview study, therefore, is to explore whether we can learn how to cope proactively with environmental worries from young people who are already actively engaged in environmental and global justice organizations. How do these young volunteers experience and reflect upon their worry? Which individual and collective coping strategies are used? The results are analyzed in relation to existential and emotion theories, and it is concluded that if we want to promote both an active stance towards the global future and psychological well-being among young people, it is not the ability to get rid of worry that should be sought after but rather the capacity to face worry, to learn from it, and to use it for constructive actions. In this regard, cognitive strategies for activating positive emotions and positive aspects of being actively engaged are important to acknowledge, since they could help the young to take on this difficult task.