对治理整顿流通秩序的思考

在经济总量与结构双失衡、投资需求与消费需求双膨胀的形势下,流通领域出现“三紧”、“四乱”,即:流动资金紧、商品供求紧和商品运输紧;批发渠道乱、流通组织乱、交换行为乱和市场管理乱。流通秩序混乱的原因,一是经济过热,导致结     

新时期流通结构优化升级之再认识

过去三十多年的流通改革正是流通结构优化升级的持续过程,但在其中也有一些悬而未决的问题,在国内商品流通领域集中表现为流通规模与流通效率、传统流通与现代流通、流通业态与流通技术、流通经济职能与社会职能之间的矛盾.在新时期的流通结构优化升级中,繁荣市场的功能要适度、稳定市场的功能要重启、新型技术的功能要加强、促进就业的功能要充分发挥.其涵盖的重点问题包括加速流通总体规划和立法、健全流通宏观管理机制、完善大宗商品流通体制、重构工业品批发体系、转变零售业盈利模式.     

论当前批发体系萎缩的实证涵义

立足当前批发体系萎缩的经济现实,结合国内商品流通领域的经验数据,对批发体系萎缩的实证涵义进行结构分析,研究发现,当前的批发体系萎缩并非批发流通的功能萎缩或批发环节的消失不见,而是批发业发展的结构问题,表现在职能不新、主体不强与载体不活三个层面。新职能不足与大批发缺位相互交织,成为当前批发体系萎缩的内在涵义,重构或完善新型批发体系应着重从结构矛盾中寻求有效突破。     

基于美国流通企业兴衰的研究探讨我国批发企业的对策

我国批发企业衰退的根本原因是效率低、功能少．低效的流通系统已严重阻碍经济的进一步发展和居民福利水平的提高,是我国商品供需低水平饱和的重要原因。我国批发企业的经营能力和经营效率应在政府支持下逐步提高．     

国内商品贸易与居民消费水平——最终消费品及中间品流通的支撑作用

构建商品自由流通的国内统一市场能够增进消费者福祉。在地区间市场开放的条件下，对于有大量商品销往外地的地区而言，其中相应产业应具有较强的竞争力，且该商品在当地的消费市场应更为发达；而当一个地区特定产业的生产规模较小时，外地商品流入将对当地的居民消费产生支撑作用。进一步地，以中间品流通为基础的国内价值链分工能够提升产品竞争力,表现为大量商品外销的地区中交通运输、批发零售等流通行业活动的中间投入需求较大。以全国31个省2007、2012年投入产出表及经济运行数据为基础构建计量模型进行实证分析，结果印证了上述地区间商品贸易与居民消费水平间的关系机制。由此可以说明，促进地区间最终商品和中间品市场整合对于提升居民消费具有积极意义。     

“入世”对流通的影响和应对措施

●我国将在加入WTO的三到五年内,逐步取消对外商进入国内商品市场的一切限制。 ●尽管商品分销领域对外开放利弊共存,但综合分析毫无疑问是利大于弊。 ●与零售业相比,我国批发业将受较大冲击。 ●加大国有流通企业改革力度,研究解决批发企业的改革与发展模式,大力推进营销改革,发展新型营销方式。     

完善我国市场流通体系的宏观思考

文章回顾了三十多年来我国市场流通体系的重大实践变革,总括性地分析了我国市场流通体系的既存格局和主要问题,并提出完善我国市场流通体系的战略方向,包括:重构与完善批发体系、适时转变零售业发展方向、重拾流通业的稳定器功能、重视完善大宗商品流通体制。     

中国国内市场分割的非政府因素探析——流通的渠道、组织与统一市场构建

现有文献往往把中国地区市场分割的主要原因归结于地方保护主义。本文则试图说明，作为非政府因素的流通渠道及流通组织也会对统一市场构建带来影响。采用31省2000—2009年的面板数据，以“价格法”计算市场分割系数进行回归分析，结果说明流通企业规模的扩大反而有可能带来市场分割的加剧，并且这种关系主要体现在批发环节。流通改革形成了“分枝状”的渠道结构，且因为有助于制造商实现地区价格歧视等原因而在路径依赖中不断自我强化。划分经营区域的经销商不断发展，取消了批发流通组织自主实现商品跨地区流转的作用，并给生产商进入各地区建立销售渠道造成了阻碍。由此，统一市场的构建需要对流通领域给予充分关注。     

我国商贸流通组织规模扩张对区域市场分割的影响

文章探讨了我国商贸流通组织规模对区域市场分割的影响,发现商贸流通组织规模的扩张加剧了区域市场分割。通过对商贸流通组织规模扩张加速区域市场分割的机制讨论,认为这种阻碍作用的重要根源在于批发环节,而零售企业规模的扩张则有利于降低区域市场分割。     

推进流通组织改革，构建有效竞争的流通组织体系

推进流通组织改革，构建有效竞争的流通组织体系冯德连流通组织是指经营同类商品的流通企业在同一市场上形成的相互关系结构，有两层含义：一层是流通企业之间的分工协作关系，另一层是流通企业之间的竞争状况。我国流通组织是在计划经济体制下根据行政区划按照计划、“政...     

影响我国农产品期货效率的国际化因素与对策

为了进一步促进我国农产品期货市场的完善和发展,推动我国农产品期货市场国际化,并在国际农产品期货市场中具有世界影响力,对影响我国农产品期货市场效率的国际化因素进行了具体分析,指出当前我国农产品期货市场在国际化、开展跨境业务等方面存在的一些问题。提出逐步允许更多的国内公司直接参与国际期货交易．逐步拓展国内期货公司代理国外期货交易以及探索国外投资者参与国内期货交易的途径等具体政策建议。     

投资主体对我国农产品期货效率的影响

为了促进我国农产品期货市场的完善与发展,提高我国农产品期货市场的效率,对影响我国农产品期货市场效率的投资主体因素进行了具体分析。指出我国农产品期货市场投机者过多、套期保值者少、战略机构投资主体缺失等投资主体结构对期货市场效率的影响。提出引导农民合作组织进入期货市场、引导农业订单公司进入农产品期货市场、逐步放宽对国有企业参与期货市场的限制、积极发展我国的期货投资基金等具体政策建议。     

马克思论批发商品流通

马克思将批发视为资本流通过程的重要环节，他不仅深入分析了批发的产生和批发在社会再生产中的作用，还对批发的组织和运行作了精辟论述，澄清了商品流通、批发商品流通和批发商业三者之间的关系，并对批发的投机性、批发价格形成的特殊性、批发影响社会经济运行的直接性作了精彩阐发。马克思的重要论述不仅为我们认识批发商品流通提供了基础理论框架，而且对于我们深化批发流通体制改革具有极大的启示意义。     

The market quality of commodity futures markets

To study the market quality of commodity futures markets, we construct a commodity futures market quality index from the perspective of liquidity, efficiency, and volatility. Based on the market quality index, the Chinese commodity futures market operates steadily. The metal futures market is more efficient and stable than the market for agricultural futures. The Chinese commodity futures market is less liquid and more volatile than the U.S. market. We examine the determinants of market quality and find that macroeconomic variables and futures market contracts are significantly related to the market quality of Chinese commodity futures.     

Managed futures,positive feedback trading,and futures price volatility

A major issue in recent years is the role that large, managed futures funds and pools play in futures markets. Many market participants argue that managed futures trading increases price volatility due to the size of managed futures trading and reliance on positive feedback trading systems. The purpose of this study is to provide new evidence on the impact of managed futures trading on futures price volatility. A unique data set on managed futures trading is analyzed for the period 1 December 1988 through 31 March 1989. The data set includes the daily trading volume of large commodity pools for 36 different futures markets. Regression results are unequivocal with respect to the impact of commodity pool trading on futures price volatility. For the 72 estimated regressions (two for each market), the coefficient on commodity pool trading volume is significantly different from zero in only four cases. These results constitute strong evidence that, at least for this sample period, commodity pool trading is not associated with increases in futures price volatility. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 759–776, 1999     

Estimating the connectedness of commodity futures using a network approach

Using a network approach of variance decompositions, we measure the connectedness of 18 commodity futures and characterize both static and dynamic connectedness. Our results show that metal futures are net transmitters of shocks to other futures, and agricultural futures are vulnerable to shocks from the others. Furthermore, almost two-thirds of the volatility uncertainty for commodity futures are due to the connectedness of shocks across the futures market. Dynamically, we find connectedness always increases in times of turmoil. An analysis of connectedness networks suggests that investors could be forewarned that the connectedness of various classes of futures could threaten their portfolios.     

THE EFFECT OF TRADING FUTURES ON SHORT SALE CONSTRAINTS

It is commonly believed that the trading of futures on a commodity enables the market to overcome short selling constraints on the spot commodity itself. This belief is embedded in the notion that trading strategies involving futures contracts enable traders to replicate the payoffs as if they were short the spot commodity. The purpose of this paper is to investigate this common belief in a general arbitrage‐free semimartingale financial model with trading in futures and a short selling prohibition on the spot commodity. We show via various examples that, in general, this common belief is incorrect. Furthermore, we provide a set of sufficient conditions, albeit very restrictive, under which the common belief is true.     

Speculative pressure

The paper investigates the information content of speculative pressure across futures classes. Long-short portfolios of futures contracts sorted by speculative pressure capture a significant premium in commodity, currency, and equity markets but not in fixed income markets. Exposure to commodity, currency, and equity index futures’ speculative pressure is priced in the broad cross-section after controlling for momentum, carry, global liquidity, and volatility risks. The findings are confirmed by robustness tests using alternative speculative pressure signals, portfolio construction techniques, and subperiods interalia. We argue that there is an efficient hedgers-speculators risk transfer in commodity, currency, and equity index futures markets.     

The role of financial investors in determining the commodity futures risk premium

I develop and test a model to study the interaction between the commodity and stock markets. This study attempts to clarify the debate about the effect of financialization on commodity markets. Theoretically, the futures risk premium is determined by hedging pressure, stock market returns, and the commodity–equity correlation. Empirically, the effect of the stock market on the energy market became significantly greater for the futures risk premium in the period following the 2008 crisis. Furthermore, hedging pressure is a strong explanatory variable for the futures risk premium in various circumstances.     

我国商品期货市场弱式有效性实证研究

现以我国三个商品期货市场的主要交易品种合约为研究对象,运用单位根检验、序列相关检验对期货收益率进行实证分析,其结果表明我国所有期货品种的价格时间序列满足一阶单整过程,棉花、铜期货品种的收益率时间序列服从随机游走过程,而大豆、豆粕、天胶、硬麦四个期货品种的收益率时间序列存在3阶自相关,我国商品期货市场整体上尚未达到弱式有效。