Hayek and the Great Depression of 1929: Did he really change his mind?

The aim of this research is to establish whether, and if so in what way, Hayek changed his mind about the Great Depression of 1929.The work is divided into two parts. In the first part, I present the ‘early’ Hayek of the 1930s. Hayek was the great rival of Keynes. Both explained the Great Depression, applying opposing business cycle theories. For Keynes, the crisis was caused by an excess of saving over investment; for Hayek, on the contrary, by an excess of investment over saving. In the early 1930s, Röpke attempted a synthesis, positing that a recession due to overinvestment can degenerate, as in 1929, into a depression caused by oversaving. Hayek examined and rejected Röpke's theory. In the second part, I present the ‘later’ Hayek of the 1970s. After years of silence and solitude, Hayek was unexpectedly awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics, precisely for the contribution he made in the 1930s to the theory of the business cycle. Hayek returned to his pursuit of the ghost of Keynes, debated with his friend and rival Friedman, re-examined Röpke's special case and, according to Haberler, changed his mind. In my conclusion, I attempt to resolve the dilemma.     

Hayek’s 1945 Finlay Memorial Lecture: Tracing the origins and evolution of his ‘true’ individualism

Hayek’s original 1945 University College Dublin lecture outlined the origins and evolution of two different interpretations of ‘individualism’, comparing and contrasting what Hayek terms ‘true’ and ‘false’ individualism notwithstanding the misleading contemporary interpretations and distorted perceptions of the assumptions underlining ‘true’ individualism. Hayek developed and extended the Scottish Enlightenment theory of spontaneous order originally formulated by Adam Ferguson’s maxim that social order was the result of unintended human action rather than the result of deliberate human design in order to explain the origin of complex social structures, which originated in a Cromwellian maxim. The origination and inspiration for the title of Hayek’s lecture is also considered, as is the influence of other thinkers; Mandeville, Tocqueville, Mill, Acton and Schatz that Hayek cites in his Dublin lecture.     

From economic stability to social order: The debate about business cycle theory in the 1920s and its relevance for the development of theories of social order by Lowe,Hayek and Eucken∗

Abstract

The concepts of Adolph Lowe, Friedrich A. Hayek and Walter Eucken play an important role in the discussion of an adequate theory of economic and social order. It is noteworthy that at the beginning of their academic careers, these three economists dealt primarily with questions of business cycle theory. As we will show, this is not coincidental, but can be explained by economic history and the history of theory. Furthermore, all three economists agree that establishing a comprehensive social order would provide the basis for economic stability, although each postulates a different relationship between liberty and order.     

Hayek and Keynes: From a common critique of economic method to different theories of expectations

The methodological positions of Hayek and Keynes contain striking similarities. Both authors opposed empiricist approaches to economics that assign priority to mere observation as the source of knowledge. Both emphasised intentionality, motivation and human agency. Notwithstanding this common ground, they had different conceptions of how beliefs are formed and had different explanations of thought and action in economics. Hayek grounded his explanation on an evolutionary theory of the mind, i.e. on psychological premises, whereas Keynes based his view of belief formation on probable reasoning, where probability is a logical concept. Starting from psychological premises Hayek maintained that individuals act rationally only by following rules. As a consequence, he considered conventional expectations to be the primary guide for agents in economic life. Keynes agreed that conventional expectations actually guide economic behaviour, but he maintained that they are justified only in situations of total ignorance. In conditions of limited knowledge, agents can base their action on reasonable expectations, independently of conventions. Moreover, agents?particularly those institutions responsible for economic policy?ought to shun conventional behaviour in order to counteract its negative social consequences. We argue that Keynes's theory of expectations is well grounded upon his theory of logical probability. Hence his advocacy of discretionary policy is rationally justified.     

The emergence of institutions in Hayek’s theory: two views or one?

Hayek opposes the explanation of the emergence of institutions as “spontaneous (unintentional) order”, which he considers correct, against “constructivism” (viewed as erroneous). This dichotomy exhibits some inconsistencies, for, on Hayek’s account, constructivist ideologies seem able both to prevent the evolutionary emergence of norms and to generate institutions coherent with deliberate, intentional, purposes. If this is so, are there then two views on the emergence of institutions in Hayek’s theory? The paper consequently discusses whether constructivism and evolution of norms are two alternative kinds of explanation, and in particular whether the former can be interpreted in evolutionary terms.     

Spontaneous economic order

This paper provides attempts to formalize Hayek’s notion of spontaneous order within the framework of an Arrow-Debreu economy. Our study shows that, if a competitive economy is sufficiently fair and free, a spontaneous economic order will emerge in long-run competitive equilibria so that social members spontaneously occupy an unplanned distribution of income. Despite this, the spontaneous order may degenerate in the form of economic crises whenever an equilibrium economy approaches the extreme competition. Remarkably, such a theoretical framework of spontaneous order provides a bridge linking Austrian economics and neoclassical economics, where a truth begins to emerge: “Freedom promotes technological progress”.     

The view from Vienna: An analysis of the renewed interest in the Mises-Hayek theory of the business cycle

We review the post-crisis literature that engages Austrian business cycle theory and we discuss what is being said that is correct, what is being said that is incorrect, and what is not being said that ought to be said. This last category is important due to the fact that the post-crisis literature engaging Austrian business cycle theory has not addressed advances in the theory made since the days of Mises and Hayek. We also highlight three key areas of contemporary economics where Austrian business cycle theory has the potential to do significant work.     

Normative judgments and spontaneous order: The contractarian element in Hayek's thought

This paper explores the apparent tension between Hayek's moral skepticism and his role as a defender of liberal institutions. It looks at Hayek's concept of spontaneous order, and asks whether there are any grounds for claiming that spontaneous orders have moral value. The argument from group selection is considered but rejected. Hayek is interpreted as putting most weight on arguments which show, for specific orders (such as the market and common law) that their rules assist each individual in the pursuit of his or her ends, whatever those ends may be. It is suggested that this form of argument is contractarian in character. However, Hayek's contractarianism is distinctive in that it looks for agreement among individuals within an ongoing social order, rather than among rational agents who stand outside any particular society. This paper was written while I was a Visiting Scholar at the Social Philosophy and Policy Center, Bowling Green State University; I am very grateful for the Center's support. An early version was presented at the Friedrich August von Hayek Memorial Symposium in Freiburg, in June 1993. In revising the paper, I have benefited from the comments of the participants at that symposium.     

Cantillon and Ricardo effects: Hayek's contributions to business cycle theory

The distinctive line of argument in Hayek' business cycle theory can be characterized as a combination of the Cantillon effect monetary expansion on the price structure and the Ricardo effect of a shortage of consumption goods on the production of investment goods. This paper compares the original ideas of Cantillon and Ricardo with their adaptation and combination by Hayek. The differences help to expose fundamental problems in Hayek' theory and, more generally, in projects of integrating money and the business-cycle phenomenon with Walrasian general equilibrium theory.     

Hayek,Mach, and the re-ordering of mind

This paper argues that Friedrich A. v. Hayek's theory of mind and the relation between mental and physical events, most systematically presented in his 1952 book, The Sensory Order, is indebted to Ernst Mach's theory, and, in particular, to his Analysis of Sensations, above and beyond what Hayek himself along with multiple admirers of his work ever cared to admit. By highlighting a number of important similarities between Mach's and Hayek's theories of the psychical/phenomenal and physical world/order, the paper aims to show that key aspects of Hayek's theory of mind can be traced to Mach's theoretical foundations. The paper further argues that some of the criticisms Hayek levels against Mach concern nonessential points, arise from the uncritical acceptance of common misinterpretations of Mach's theory, or are plainly wrong.     

实际经济周期理论及其对中国的启发

基德兰德与普雷斯科特共同开创的实际经济周期理论(RBC理论)获得2004年诺贝尔经济学奖.RBC理论无论其理论本身还是思想方法都对传统理论提出了严峻的挑战,不但改变了宏观经济学的发展方向,也影响了一些国家宏观经济政策的制定.在从经济波动的根源、传导机制、理论模型、政策含义及其所采用的分析方法等方面概述了该理论的主要内容,并在总需求总供给模型框架下将RBC理论与其他宏观经济理论做出了相应比较,最后指出RBC理论在经济周期研究和制定稳定经济政策等方面对我国的启发.     

Hayek’s monetary theory and policy: A note on alleged inconsistency

Challenging the dominant view, we claim that Hayek’s monetary views did not significantly change over his lifetime. The prevalent perception of early Hayek as a money stream stabilizer and late Hayek as a price level stabilizer is attributable to an unjustified normative interpretation of Hayek’s positive analysis. We argue that in his contributions to monetary theory, Hayek took the goals of monetary policy as exogenously given and analysed the efficiency of different means of achieving them. Hayek’s allegedly inconsistent transformation from a critic to an advocate of price level stabilization is explained by a change of issues under his focus, rather than by a change in his positive views. We also claim that Hayek was always aware that every practical monetary policy involves difficult trade-offs and that he was therefore reluctant to impose his own value judgments on what people should strive for.     

Cognition,competition, and catallaxy in memory of Friedrich August von Hayek

The paper focuses on central elements of the scientific work of Friedrich A. v. Hayek since the 1930s. In a first part, his epistemological position and its implications for his understanding of the tasks of the social sciences are presented as he set them out particularly in theSensory Order (1952). Then, it is shown how his findings in economic theory as well as in the analysis of economic and societal systems are formed by these foundations. His emphasis on the subjectivity and the constitutional limitations of human knowledge is identified as a precondition for the outstanding analytical insights which he gained with regard to the functioning of a market order and the role of institutions in societal development. Furthermore, it is argued that Hayek's enduring campaign for freedom and against the socialist tendencies in welfare states was not simply a matter of personal conviction. It was also the result of his analysis in constitutional political economy which revealed to him that freedom as a normative basis of economic and societal institutions is the key to the explanation of European cultural evolution.     

Intertemporal capital substitution and Hayekian booms

Hayek’s business cycle theory portrays monetary expansion and monetary contraction with counterintuitive asymmetry. On the one hand, it suggests that they both change relative prices and cause costly reallocations of production factors. At the same time, the theory predicts that while a monetary contraction causes the economic crisis, the monetary expansion comes with the boom. I argue that what I call intertemporal capital substitution in industries close to final consumption explains why there is a boom in spite of the costly reallocations. More specifically, monetary expansion only gradually increases the demand for nonspecific factors of production by industries that are temporally remote from final consumption. Responding to the expected higher cost of nonspecific factors, consumer-goods industries temporarily increase output and depreciate specific durable production factors faster than they planned.     

Misjudging the character of the welfare state: Hayek,generality, and the knowledge problem

What are the limits of collective action? As James Buchanan famously worried, is it possible to empower the productive state without lapsing into the predatory state? This paper uses insights from F.A. Hayek to address problems of public goods and the role of the state. Hayek convincingly argued that no central planner has sufficient knowledge to run an economy. Yet Hayek also allowed for state provision of some goods beyond the prevention of coercion. The question, then, is whether Hayek’s safeguards offer a satisfactory response to Buchanan’s worry. This paper contends that Hayek violated his own conditions for permissible government activity. Nevertheless, he offers a serious research agenda for limiting state abuses.     

Understanding low interest rates: evidence from Japan,Euro Area,United States and United Kingdom

The paper investigates the factors determining long‐term interest rates. Our estimation results for major industrialized economies suggest that central banks have actually had a key influence on the level of long‐term interest rates. We thus show that 1) the customary neoclassical model of interest rate determination, on which central banks tend to rely, is neither rooted in the institutional setup of the credit markets nor supported by the data, and that 2) the Austrian explanation incorporated in the model of Wicksell–Mises–Hayek of the credit and business cycle fits better the economic reality. As central bank policy makers might lack the necessary knowledge and foresight to set market rates to levels consistent with economic fundamentals, there is a high chance of misalignments of market rates. The correction of misalignments could lead to severe economic disruptions.     

Did Hayek have a monetary theory of business cycles?

Joseph Schumpeter, a careful reader of Hayek, categorized Hayek??s theory of economic cycles as non-monetary. Almost every other source, including Hayek himself, categorized the theory as monetary. The issue turns on the concept of causality being used. The question of what causality concept to apply to complex phenomena has substantive implications for economic theory. A simple concept of causality, appropriate to the study of some physical phenomena, will mislead when applied to complex phenomena. We provide examples of errors in analysis that follow from the wrong choice of a causal paradigm.     

Financial variables as leading indicators in Greece

This paper presents business cycle stylized facts for the Greek economy and extends the relevant Greek literature in the following directions. First, the index of industrial production (IOP) is used to represent real economic activity and business cycle conditions. Second, the behavior of certain financial variables throughout the various phases of the business cycle is analyzed in order to assess their leading indicator properties. Third, possible non-linearities in these variables are investigated and tested for their relation to the business cycle states. The results imply that the most reliable leading indicators are real Treasury bill rates. Volatilities of real short-term interest rates may also contain useful predictive information for IOP volatility. Finally, mean non-linearities seem to be associated with business cycle asymmetries in the mean. The author wishes to express his gratitude to conference participants at the 55th International Atlantic Economic Conference held in Vienna, Austria, March 12–16, 2003, and an anonymous referee for their valuable comments and suggestions. The author is responsible for any shortcomings in the paper.     

哈耶克反对社会主义的时代和理论背景分析

哈耶克是新自由主义的旗手,一生反对社会主义。学术界往往从哈耶克理论的本身去探讨其反对社会主义的原因,事实上哈耶克反对社会主义有其社会背景和知识根源,前者主要是苏德经济政治制度的弊端和凯恩斯主义失效后西方对新自由主义的重视,后者主要是哈耶克自身接触和掌握的心理学知识及自由主义政治经济理论。     

The Road to Serfdom and the world economy: 60 years later

We consider Friedrich Hayek's Road to Serfdom in light of global ideological and economic developments during the 60 years since its publication. Specific problems considered include socialism and planning, whether national socialism was really socialism, whether Hayek's views could be labeled as social democratic and whether his critique of social democracy was too strong, and his discussion of the prospects for international economic order. While often right and enormously influential, Hayek himself agreed that some of his predictions did not become true.