The perils of high-growth markets

The conventional wisdom that businesses should invest in growth markets is based upon the assumptions that, in the early phase of a growth market, share gains are easier and worth more, the experience curve will lead to advantage, price pressure will be low, needed access to the technology will result and future entries will be deterred. These assumptions are examined and six major types of growth market risks are discussed. Finally, conditions which should be present if an early entry into a growth market is attempted are identified.     

Optimal Comparable Weighting and Selection: A Comment

Vandell (1991) and Gau, et al. (1992) have recently developed rigorous methods for selecting and weighting comparables for the market comparison approach to valuation. This paper compares the statistical properties of the Vandell and Gau approaches; specifically, it examines the bias and variance produced by both approaches. Under classical OLS assumptions, Vandell's method is preferable; when these assumptions are violated, the size and direction of the violation will determine which method is preferable. Finally, the paper concludes that when the regression producing the adjustment factors has an heteroskedastic error structure, corrections should be made to the regression itself, rather than as part of the comparable weighting and selection process.     

Employment Rules in German Theatres: An Application and Evaluation of the Theory of Employment Systems

This paper applies David Marsden's Theory of Employment Systems to employment relations in German non‐profit repertory theatres. Constraints in applying Marsden's framework to theatres are taken as a starting point for a reconsideration of its underpinning assumptions. I show that this approach (i) helps us to understand the institutional embeddedness of theatrical employment and (ii) enables a closer look at the strengths and weaknesses of Marsden's theory. Since Marsden supports the idea that the open‐ended employment relationship will persist and will remain prevalent, challenging his theory can contribute to our understanding of ‘new’ forms of employment.     

Cereal grain production: Potential for Latin America

The authors analyse the potential for self-sufficiency in cereal grain production in six different Latin American countries. Based on the assumptions and empirical results of this study, most Latin American countries, with the likely exceptions of Argentina and Colombia, will find it virtually impossible to become selfsufficient in cereal grain production in the 1980s. However, increased investment in agricultural research and the expansion of fertilizer use can help thwart potential cereal grain deficits. Fertilizer and cereal grain imports will be required in most countries to help increase the available supply of cereal grain.     

Athlete Pay and Competitive Balance in College Athletics

In this paper we analyze the argument—which has been used by both the National Labor Relations Board and the National Collegiate Athletic Association—that unionization and/or player pay will hurt competitive balance in college sports. We present a theoretical analysis of universities that recruit athletes and examine the assumptions that are needed for player compensation to decrease competitive balance. We also empirically illustrate the differences in balance between professional and college sports. Given the theoretical and empirical analysis, we argue that unionization and/or player pay is unlikely to hurt competitive balance.     

Asymmetric Network Interconnection

We develop a model of competition between interconnected networks,that allows for carriers to differ in size. Under two-partpricing, we show that because of asymmetry the larger network willalways prefer a reciprocal interconnection charge be set at cost.For sufficiently large asymmetry the smaller network will have thesame preference. Under the assumptions of our model a particularly simple regulation is optimal – if carriers cannot agree on the terms of interconnection, the larger carrier is entitled to select the access price which is then applied reciprocally.     

Estimating fertiliser demand

The availability of improved data will determine whether the search for new methodologies, which are more accurate than present ones for determining fertiliser demand, is successful. The author briefly reviews various ways of estimating fertiliser demand and emphasises the need for analysts to make clear the assumptions and limitations of the methods used which may influence their value to policy makers.     

Bereitstellung von Regelleistung durch Elektrofahrzeuge: Modellrechnungen für Deutschland im Jahr 2035

The German government has set ambitious goals for both the expansion of renewable energy supply and electromobility. According to its Energiewende policy, electricity supply from fluctuating renewables is supposed to further increase considerably. This will tend to require a greater provision of balancing reserves. At the same time, supply from conventional dispatchable plants, which used to provide the bulk of reserves, will decrease. Against this background, this article analyzes the scope for an assumed fleet of 4.4 million electric vehicles to supply balancing reserves in 2035. Examining two different future power plant scenarios, it explores the potentials of reserve provision with and without the option of feeding electricity from vehicle batteries back to the grid. Results from an extended open-source power system simulation model show that the assumed vehicle fleet can efficiently provide a substantial share of reserve requirements, also in case the vehicle-to-grid option is not available. Arbitrage on wholesale markets, on the other hand, is negligible under basic assumptions. Likewise, total system cost savings are minor when compared to a pure cost-optimal loading of vehicle batteries. Under alternative assumptions on the future power plant portfolio as well as on battery degradation costs, however, wholesale arbitrage, reserve provision, and system cost savings can be substantial.     

Cost reductions or reputation enhancement as motives for mergers: The logic of multihospital systems

This paper examines two motives for the formation of local multihospital systems: cost reduction and reputation enhancement. Systems may reduce costs by eliminating redundancies and reducing administrative costs. Integration may also lower costs for consumers seeking consistently high qualiiy. We hypothesize that if systems achieve either cost or reputation benefits, then member hospitals will ‘look’ different from random collections of hospitals. We find that local systems do not appear to have lower costs but do appear to enjoy reputation benefits over nonsystem hospitals. Our findings challenge the assumptions behind popular health reform initiatives.     

Modeling the effects of mergers in procurement

In procurement settings, mergers among suppliers reduce buyers' choice sets and can harm buyers by eliminating their preferred supplier or reducing their negotiating leverage. I develop a stochastic economic model that predicts the effects of mergers based on information that commonly is available to antitrust authorities. I derive general expressions for the ex ante expected changes in price, buyer utility, and supplier profit. Each becomes tractable under certain distributional assumptions. The model predicts that average prices will increase by more than 40% due to the recently litigated acquisition of Power Reviews by Bazaarvoice, in the absence of an effective remedy.     

Toward sustainable practices in technology education

This paper discusses the problematic relationship between technology education, consumption and environmental sustainability. The emerging global sustainability crisis demands an educational response that moves beyond mere ‘tinkering’ with classroom practices, toward technology education which embraces life cycle thinking and ‘eco-innovation’. It will argue that the urgent transformation to technology education for sustainability citizenship must begin with a critical examination of existing practices and assumptions which underpin unsustainability. The initial context for this discussion will be technological education in Canada and the United States, in particular a recent national report on the assessment of technological literacy. The paper concludes by suggesting several ‘new paths’ forward to move technology education toward more sustainable practices and more relevance for young people.     

What kind of assumptions need to be realistic and how to test them: A response to Tsang (2006)

Tsang (2006) contends that certain core assumptions of a theory, which are typically about people's behaviors or thoughts, need be realistic, because they determine the viability of the mechanism that generates a hypothesized relationship. While Tsang's (2006) article rightly emphasizes the importance of realistic assumptions, it neglects the issue that certain kinds of assumptions are necessarily unrealistic for the roles that they play in theory development and testing. Therefore, researchers should not be criticized for making unrealistic assumptions of the latter kinds. Furthermore, by deliberating on the assumptions underpinning a theory, researchers can construct theories with better explanatory power and further develop existing theories. Tsang (2006) also suggests two approaches for testing assumptions, namely, a structural model and direct inquiry approaches. Although these approaches have certain merits, they also have limitations that may render the evidence gathered unreliable under certain situations. Two alternative approaches, namely, the experimental‐causal‐chain and the moderator‐of‐process designs, address these limitations. The researcher could consider adopting these designs as well in order to improve the rigor of assumption testing. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Simple Meaning of Complex Rates of Return

Real options analysis (ROA) has been identified in the literature as a quantitative means to evaluate the flexibility inherent in the decision-making process. From an engineering economics perspective, this paper highlights applications, real-world users, modeling approaches, ROA assumptions, and future research directions. Through identifying and systematizing the current literature, a concise summary of modeling concerns and a road map for future modeling efforts and applications is discussed. More specifically, this paper supports research efforts to combine decision analysis tools with financial option pricing techniques to develop a real option framework that will be accepted in industry to make decisions in today's fast-paced and highly competitive business environment.     

How symmetrical assumptions advance strategic management research

We develop the case for symmetrical assumptions in strategic management theory. Assumptional symmetry obtains when assumptions made about certain actors and their interactions in one of the application domains of a theory are also made about this set of actors and their interactions in other application domains of the theory. We argue that assumptional symmetry leads to theoretical advancement by promoting the development of theory with greater falsifiability and stronger ontological grounding. Thus, strategic management theory may be advanced by systematically searching for asymmetrical assumptions in existing theory in order to identify the instances where new and useful insights can be derived from adopting symmetrical assumptions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A planning model of pharmaceutical research and development

Despite the popular view that pharmaceutical research is a random process, and by inference unplannable, the long-term survival and development of a pharmaceutical company must be based on a steady flow of new products with a full understanding by management of the relationships between research expenditure and the likely revenues they will produce. In this paper is developed a model of the R&D function which uses probabilistic assumptions to compute the expected stream of revenues from a portfolio of projects involving the major development routes from which pharmaceutical products usually arise. The model is based on expected values of market and technical research performance and hence gives expected or indicated sales in the future as output.     

Scarcity amidst abundance? Reassessing the potential for cropland expansion in Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is typically regarded as land abundant, and previous efforts to estimate the true extent of potentially available cropland (PAC) have largely affirmed this perception. Such efforts, however, have largely focused on production potential and have underemphasized economic profitability and other constraints to expansion. This paper re-estimates PAC for Africa in a more explicit economic framework that emphasizes the returns to agricultural production under a variety of assumptions, using recent geospatial data. Existing PAC estimates for Africa are shown to be highly sensitive to assumptions about land productivity and market access, and are moderately influenced by the use of alternative data sources. The region’s underutilized land resources are concentrated in relatively few countries, many of which are fragile states. Between one-half and two-thirds of the region’s surplus land is currently under forest cover; conversion of forests to cropland would entail major environmental costs. Most of the continent’s unexploited land resources are located far from input and output markets, limiting their economic attractiveness. In the long run, improvements in infrastructure and agricultural productivity and the growth of hinterland towns will enhance the economic returns to cropland expansion. In the short to medium term, however, the potential for profitable smallholder-based cropland expansion in most African countries is likely to be much more limited than it is typically perceived to be.     

Costs and Pricing of Home Brokerage Services

This paper explores a simple economic search model, and various brokerage cost assumptions, to derive brokerage pricing implications for three dimensions of the home transaction: (1) level of home price, (2) new relative to existing home sales, and (3) co-op relative to non-co-op sales. The model incorporates time-on-market (the price-time tradeoff) as an important element in home brokerage (search)
It is argued that relative search cost differences imply that commission rates will be lower (1) on sales of higher-priced homes, (2) on sales of new relative to existing homes and (3) on non-co-op relative to co-op sales. A main contribution of the paper is the presentation of considerable supporting evidence showing variation in actual home brokerage commission rates according to these three variables.     

Agency problems as antecedents to unrelated mergers and diversification: Amihud and Lev reconsidered

Amihud and Lev (1981) are widely cited as providing evidence that managers, unless closely monitored by large block shareholders, will attempt to reduce their employment risk through unrelated mergers and diversification. These corporate strategies, however, may not be in shareholders' interests. Reconsidering the agency assumptions underlying Amihud and Lev's study and the methodology they used, we develop hypotheses regarding the association between ownership structure, board vigilance, corporate strategy, and corporate performance from management theory and test them using Amihud and Lev's data from the 1960s and new data from the 1980s. Neither study supports the conclusions of Amihud and Lev, nor the agency theory belief that monitoring efforts by principals affect the strategic behaviors of agents or the performance of firms that they manage. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.