潜力巨大 优势互补加强中国与巴西的经贸合作

潜力巨大　优势互补加强中国与巴西的经贸合作黄松甫中国和巴西是分属东西半球两个最大的发展中国家。两国都有辽阔的疆土，众多的人口，丰富的资源和广阔的市场。两国的经济实力和科技水平相当，又各有优势，可以相互学习，互为补充。中巴两国的经济发展潜力巨大，加强两...     

中俄经贸关系发展及其战略决策

中俄两国是世界公认的"成长最快的经济体",2007年中国和俄罗斯经济仍继续保持增长。经济的发展创造了两个充满活力的巨大市场,为两国的商品、资源、技术和资本进入对方市场提供了广阔前景,中俄经贸关系面临前所未有的发展机遇。双方应当抓住时机,充分挖掘潜力,加强合作与交流,促进双边经贸关系持续稳定发展,把两国经贸合作推向一个新的高度。     

中俄经贸关系发展及其战略决策

中俄两国是世界公认的“成长最快的经济体”,2007年中国和俄罗斯经济仍继续保持增长。经济的发展创造了两个充满活力的巨大市场,为两国的商品、资源、技术和资本进入对方市场提供了广阔前景,中俄经贸关系面临前所未有的发展机遇。双方应当抓住时机,充分挖掘潜力,加强合作与交流,促进双边经贸关系持续稳定发展,把两国经贸合作推向一个新的高度。     

中国与巴西农产品贸易潜力分析

中国和巴西双边农产品贸易的发展对世界农产品市场具有不容忽视的影响。本文首先描述了中巴双边农产品贸易现状,然后通过测算农产品出口依存度、比较优势、贸易互补性等指标,剖析双边农产品贸易结构的合理性。结果显示,中巴优势农产品差异明显,双边贸易结构具有一定互补性。中巴农产品贸易有良好的发展前景,中国可以增加从巴西进口土地密集型产品,同时扩大对巴出口部分劳动密集型产品及其加工品,从而实现双赢。     

中国与巴西:投资合作及其前景分析

巴西是拉美第一大国,是全球具有最大发展潜力的新兴工业化国家之一.2004年,巴西的国内生产总值达到1.76亿雷亚尔,合6010亿美元,位居世界第12位.1974年,中国与巴西建立了外交关系.中巴建交31年来,中巴双边贸易投资关系稳步发展,取得了令人满意的结果.2001年双边贸易额达到36.98亿美元,是建交年份的212倍;2004年,中巴双边贸易额达123.6亿美元,其中,中国对巴出口36.7亿美元,自巴西进口86.8亿美元.目前,巴西是第一个同中国建立战略伙伴关系的发展中国家,是中国在拉美地区最大的贸易伙伴.而中国2001年开始首次超过日本,成为巴西在亚洲最大的贸易伙伴.     

新形势下要着力推动中俄经贸结构调整转型

近年来,随着中俄两国战略伙伴关系的稳步推进及两国经济的持续增长,双边经贸合作快速发展,贸易规模不断扩大。2010年,中国超过德国成为俄罗斯最大的贸易伙伴,双边贸易额超过550亿美元。但同年,俄罗斯却被巴西取代,位列中国主要贸易伙伴国的第十一位。中俄经贸合作只限单一的贸易领域,其局限性是显而易见的。俄罗斯入世不仅对其自身社会经济发展和国际贸易产生深远影响,也会给中俄经贸合作的深入发展带来新机遇。如能有效推进中俄加速经济融合,可能为推进泛亚洲经济圈创造条件。这既可增加中俄在政治安全上的共同利益,同时中国还可借力在国际舞台上争取更多的话语权,并在一定程度上遏制美国所提出和推进的跨太平洋伙伴关系协议(TPP)对中国的负面影响。     

开创吉林省对俄经贸合作的新局面

中俄互为最大的邻国和重要贸易伙伴,经济互补性强,发展双边经贸合作潜力巨大。发展对俄经贸合作,不但是我国实施市场多元化战略的重要举措,更为重要的是,通过全面提升双边经贸合作水平,将有力地充实中俄战略协作伙伴关系的物质基础,促进这一关系的全面深入发展,从而在新的世界格局下为我国争取到更为有利的国际环境。我省与俄罗斯远东地区相邻,具有发展对俄经贸合作的诸多有利条件。     

中国对日本农产品出口的现状分析及政策建议

随着中日双边农产品贸易规模的不断扩大,尤其是在东北亚经济合作升温的背景下,研究中日之间农产品贸易,能为我国政府制定合理的贸易与投资战略,建立适当的双边或区域经贸合作机制提供有益的参考。本文以中国对日本的农产品出口为研究对象,分析了中国农产品对日本出口的贸易现状和出口结构,深入探讨了中国农产品对日本出口的比较优势、贸易互补性及贸易密集度。最后为我国农产品更好地开拓日本市场提出了有针对性的政策建议。     

基于扩展引力模型的中国双边金融服务贸易出口潜力研究

文章基于扩展的引力模型对中国双边金融服务出口的决定因素及出口潜力进行了经验研究,结果发现:进出口双方的GDP、双边距离、是否使用共同语言及进出口双方的经济自由度会对中国双边金融服务出口产生显著的影响;中国大陆对主要的金融服务出口市场(包括中国香港、美国、卢森堡和德国等)普遍"贸易过度",而对"小型"的出口市场则普遍"贸易不足";经济自由化模拟的结果表明,放松国内经济管制,提高经济的自由度,会大大促进中国金融服务出口的发展,而通过提高贸易伙伴的经济自由度来促进中国双边金融服务出口的发展则空间非常有限。最后,文章根据实证分析的结论,提出了促进中国金融服务出口发展的对策建议。     

中国的出口潜力研究:总量测算与地区分布

通过考察2000 - 2008年间中国对120个贸易伙伴国(地区)的商品出口数据,基于扩展引力模型的面板数据计量方法,本文测算了我国出口潜力的总量规模,并揭示了出口潜力的地区分布特征.研究发现,当前我国的对外贸易仍处于“出口不足”状态,特别是对亚洲近邻的市场拓展相对滞后.后危机时期中国出口市场结构调整的总体导向应是:在保持欧美传统市场份额基本稳定的前提下,将市场重心逐渐转向出口潜力较大的亚洲和拉美新兴经济体,进一步密切中非经贸合作关系,使其成为未来出口市场多元化的潜在对象.     

Adam Smith's theory of economic history and economic development

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to show that Smith has a theory of economic history grounded in a politico-economic modeling (as well as a sort of economic theoretical modeling). In terms of the politico-economic approach, in the Wealth of Nations (Book III.ii–iv) Smith tried to offer a systematic account of economic development from feudalism to capitalism in Europe. These lead to suggest that the seeming internal inconsistency between the natural and the actual courses of progress in Book III may be resolved, and that Smith may be treated as a precursor of Douglass North, who stressed an inextricable link between the polity and the economy in economic history.     

中国区域经济发展的经济学分析

1.生产力层次推移理论 生产力层次推移理论是国际上的一种区域经济理论,即无论在世界范围内还是一国范围内,客观上存在着经济技术上的不同层次。     

经济法与政府经济管理行为之法律机制

政府对于经济的作用,在我们国家表现得尤为突出.在市场经济体制改革被正式提出之前,政府是中国经济运行的绝对的中枢,它决定着中国经济的启动、运行、刹车的全过程,直到今天,我们的经济仍然无法摆脱历史的惯性.     

Effects of economic variables on NPLs depending on the economic cycle

Late payments are a major problem for Spanish banks. This paper studies as determinants of loan delinquency: unemployment, interest rates, inflation, housi     

Animal spirits: the effect of economic expectations on economic output

The public is characterized as able forecasters of future economic performance. They engage in rational expectations. Empirical evidence exists to bolster the claim. This article considers the possibility that the public does more than predict economic output. They may engage in a self-fulfilling prophecy where belief about the future economy translates into personal financial behaviour (e.g., consumption and investment) that actually drives economic performance. After controlling for rational expectations with elite forecasts, leading indicators and past economic performance, it is shown that between 5% and one-third of the variance in economic output can be explained by prospective economic sentiment. This result has broad implications for electoral behaviour research.     

经济学界看经济社会与科学发展

党的"十八大"报告,凝聚了全党、全国人民的理论智慧,阐明了在新的国际国内形势下,如何坚持走中国特色社会主义道路的重大问题,描绘了全面建成小康社会、实现中华民族伟大复兴的宏伟前景。振奋人心、催人奋进。为了深刻领会"十八大"精神,进一步创新经济理论以促进中国经济发展,我们特邀国内部分专家、学者,畅谈自己的观点,以飨读者。     

Heterogeneous capital, economic growth, and economic development

This paper asks how much does physical capital contribute to economic growth. It postulates that capital is heterogeneous because of embodied progress, and it structures the inquiry to account for differences in economic development. Embedded in data that cover 120 nations over 41 years are 35 derived capital stock series, whose characteristics include average ages stratified by development state. Growth accountancy proceeds by regression analysis cast in a production function context and repeated for each capital type. Those results help to establish the growth contributions of labor quantity and quality and capital quantity and quality. They also bear on neoclassical convergence.     

Construction of an economic index to measure the causes of economic insecurity

This paper is an updated study on the causes of economic insecurity in the United States. The authors have constructed an aggregate composite index that measures objectively the major causes of economic insecurity (CEI) in the United States. The CEI index consists of 11 variables that can cause economic insecurity. The time period under investigation is 1960 through 2001. A rising CEI index indicates that the causes of economic insecurity in the United States have increased in relative importance, which results in an increase in economic insecurity. Conversely, a falling CEI index indicates that the causes of economic insecurity have declined in relative importance, which results in a reduction of economic insecurity. However, despite substantial economic growth in the American economy from 1960 through 2001, the CEI index overall showed little improvement. The major conclusion is that the CEI index was 9 percent higher in 2001 than it was in 1960. This result was due largely to the increase in divorce, violent crime, rising out-of-pocket expenditures for health care, inflation, and unemployment. The results for subperiods are dramatically different, and we think more interesting, than the overall results. During the 1960s, there was a small decline in the CEI index. The 1970s showed a dramatic increase in the CEI index, which reflected both high unemployment rates and inflation rates during this period. The 1980s experienced fluctuating levels in the index but little overall change, and the 1990s experienced a sharp decline in the CEI index due largely to a robust economy. The CEI index has increased more recently, which reflects largely the recent 2001 business recession. The correlation coefficient of the CEI index with the University of Michigan's well-known Index of Consumer Sentiment is ?676. This figure shows that as the CEI index rises, consumer sentiment about the American economy becomes pessimistic and negative.