全球金融危机的政治学与经济学

我们正处于全球经济及政治危机的中间阶段,其强度之大为第二次世界大战结束以来所仅见。这一危机造成的紧张局势已经在全世界广为传播,在不同的国家表现为不同的形式。许多政府已经垮台,未来还会有更多政府因为持续的失业和普遍的愤     

欧元危机的逻辑

本次危机的根源是欧元区外围国家的过度举债和核心国家的有借必应。欧洲货币联盟的治理框架为成员国之间的过度信贷开了方便之门。为了研判欧元区的前景,将外围成员国分为四类:有清偿能力和无清偿能力的国家,具有纠正宏观失衡意愿和不具有纠正失衡意愿的国家。经过调整,西班牙和爱尔兰的债务状况已经好转;新任保守党政府或将帮助葡萄牙扭转颓势;希腊退出欧元区几成定局;技术派政府新政或为意大利迎来转机;法国对欧元区的态度或因大选发生转变。     

The Transfer Problem in the Euro Area

Building on the celebrated Keynes–Ohlin debate and on Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (Rev Econ Stat 86:841–857, 2004), the paper investigates the transfer problem for the Euro area vis-à-vis the rest of the world. The analysis is developed in a theoretically and statistically consistent way and is intended as a contribution to the empirical literature on EMU. The main result of the paper is that the accumulation of net foreign asset in the Euro area is consistent with real exchange appreciation, largely through the relative price of nontradables rather than through the terms of trade.

欧元区：底部企稳 复苏在望

2季度欧元区GDP萎缩速度、净出口跌幅均显著放缓。受需求影响，制造业和服务PMI指数持续攀升。然而，进口改善的相对缓慢，反映出了区内消费、投资的萎靡。欧洲央行对经济状况的评估还是相当谨慎。     

欧元区经济：继续微弱复苏态势

欧盟统计局最新的数据显示，欧元．区第三季度季调后GDP初值季率上升0．4％，年率下降4．1％，这是2008年第一季度来季率首次上升。经济复苏出现多种积极因素，消费物价和生产物价数月来呈现双双下降态势，经济与消费信心充足。但与此同时，欧元区消费依然疲软，失业率仍居高不下，衰退中复苏可能还有漫漫长路。     

The Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

This paper presents evidence on the monetary transmission processin the euro area, based on macroeconomic data and on micro dataon banks. According to the estimations of macro vector autoregressionand macroeconometric models, a monetary policy tightening significantlyreduces output and—after a time lag—also prices.The effect on output is temporary, while that on prices is permanent.Clear patterns of significant asymmetries in the monetary policyeffects across countries do not emerge. The estimations basedon micro data on banks show that the main factor that determinesthe average bank's response to monetary policy is its degreeof liquidity: the lower its share of liquid assets in totalassets, the more strongly does a bank reduce its lending inresponse to a monetary tightening. Bank size does not emergeas an important factor for a bank's reaction to monetary policy.These results hold for virtually all member countries of theEuropean Monetary Union, despite the differences in their bankingsystems.     

欧元区国家主权债务危机、欧元及欧盟经济

论文认为欧元区主权债务危机的基本性质属于南欧国家寅吃卯粮所导致的财政危机,但是由于欧元区在制度设置和运行机制上存在缺陷,使债务危机演变成欧元的信任危机。欧元区成员国和欧盟业已认识到欧洲货币联盟的不足,通过加强财政政策一体化来克服欧元区的内在矛盾似乎不可避免。欧元不会因为主权债务危机的冲击而垮台,但是欧洲经济将受到债务危机的拖累,增长前景不容乐观。     

欧元区东扩的进程、问题及其影响

欧元区的扩大进程正在紧锣密鼓地进行。欧元区东扩,即欧盟10个新成员加入欧元区,将是欧洲经济与货币一体化的重要里程碑,也是欧盟一体化进程中的巨大挑战之一。2007~2010年间,欧盟的10个东欧新成员将分别加入欧元区,欧元区可能将由现在的12国扩大为22国。目前,10个新成员正在积极创造条件加入欧元区,其中有5个国家已经达标(《马斯特里赫特条约》规定的趋同标准)。本文认为,新成员是否应该加入欧元区,应权衡得失,从成本和收益方面综合考虑。理性的选择应是在合适的时间、收益高于成本的情况下加入欧元联盟;应该从经济、政治利益方面综合考虑作出决定,而不应该单纯从政治上考虑。欧元区东扩对新老成员的影响利大于弊。欧元的国际地位上升,但未来欧元汇率的不确定性因素增加,国际货币格局将发生重大变化。     

Beyond Borders: The Euro Crisis and Public Support for Monetary Integration in East Africa

We show that economic experiences in one part of the world affect proposed policies elsewhere. Specifically, we find that the recent crisis in the European Monetary Union (EMU) has impacted negatively the public support for the new proposed monetary union in the East African Community (EAC), with a more pronounced effect for less educated Kenyans. That external effect is robust to controlling for an array of other factors such as the expected economic benefits from the union, the desire to gain international influence as part of a larger community and the memory of an earlier failed EAC monetary union.     

欧元区的危机是国际收支失衡危机

欧元区内的失衡,反映在欧洲第二代实时清算系统(TARGET2,即欧元体系的银行间支付系统)中,即各中央银行间的收支不平衡。截至2011年12月,北方欧元区国家的中央银行累计净头寸达到8000亿欧元,而南方欧元区国家则累计了相同规模的负头寸。早期有关欧洲货币联盟的文献指出,在货币联盟之内,各成员国之间的收支     

比较与反思:拉美经济社会危机教训汲取

拉美国家在现代化进程中频繁出现的经济社会危机,既有理论上的误区与实践中的盲从,又有历史赋予的凝重和现实造成的迷惘;认真总结其经验教训,对于我国当前的新农村建设和实现城乡社会协调发展无疑具有重要的现实意义。     

Asymmetric Reaction Functions for the Euro Area

This paper offers a preliminary evaluation of ECB conduct ofmonetary policy by estimating a fairly general reaction functionfor the euro area. The specification of the policy rule embodiesa number of nonlinearities which are shown to stem from asymmetricpreferences and a convex aggregate supply curve. Asymmetricpreferences allow, but do not require, policy-makers to weightdifferently positive and negative deviations of inflation andoutput from the reference values, and translate into an asymmetricreaction function. The empirical analysis on monthly euro-areaaggregated data over the last 5 years reveals that ECB monetarypolicy is effectively described by a nonlinear policy rule accordingto which output contractions have required a larger policy responsethan output expansions. Moreover, actual movements in the eurointerest rate closely resemble the simulated path that a Bundesbank-typeof behaviour would have implied.     

“欧猪五国”主权债务危机及欧元发展前景

正当全球经济刚刚走出百年一遇的金融危机而进入复苏之际,从希腊开始的欧洲主权债务危机又给世界经济以巨大冲击。本文以"欧猪五国"为切入点,从危机国家自身经济结构、欧元体制和外部冲击三方面探讨"欧猪五国"债务危机发生的原因,并分析其对"欧猪五国"发展、欧元区生存、欧盟一体化进程和全球经济复苏所产生的影响。通过各方救助,目前"欧猪五国"的主权债务危机已有所缓解,断言危机国家将退出欧元区并因此而最终导致欧元崩溃缺乏根据,但这些国家要重新达到欧元区财政趋同标准必须经过痛苦的调整过程。     

Medium term economic dynamics of the Euro Area

This paper analysis the Euro area’s growth over the last 15–20 years and provides a medium term outlook. We find that in a no policy change scenario, growth will be subdued, essentially reflecting the influence of weak pre-crisis trends, most notably for TFP (especially since the mid-1990’s). This trend will be exacerbated over the coming decade by the ongoing negative fallout from the financial crisis and by the emerging drag on growth emanating from ageing populations. Unlike in standard recessions, the GDP losses relative to a pre-crisis projection appear to be permanent. The picture presented could potentially improve with the implementation of an ambitious programme of structural reforms focussed on boosting employment and productivity. Since the usefulness of such policies is controversial in the current juncture with constrained monetary policy, the paper also looks at the impact of such reforms in a realistically calibrated model and concludes that fears of large permanent deflationary effects from structural reforms are exaggerated.