超越紧缩——探索欧洲主权债务危机的终结之道

2009年希腊债务危机拉开了欧洲主权债务危机的帷幕,并将全球金融市场置于危险的境地,至今仍无见底迹象且呈现扩散的趋势。欧洲主权债务危机爆发的根源在于欧元区成员国之间的竞争力失衡,欧元区政策框架存在制度性缺陷使得问题进一步加剧。欧元区领导人推出一整套危机永久解决机制,然而此方案并未触及欧元区深层次的问题,距离债务危机的永久解决还有很长的路要走。危机的最终解决已经超越了纯粹的经济学范畴,它将取决于各国的政治决心和魄力以及欧洲精神的复兴,反思欧洲现有的经济与社会发展模式,寻求经济增长的新路径。     

欧洲主权债务危机的内生性与外生性研究

南欧成员国社会福利过度造成的财政支出扩张与经济停滞导致的财政收入收缩是欧洲主权债务危机的内生性成因。美国因素是欧洲主权债务危机的重要外生性解释变量。美国试图通过债务危机打压欧元是为了巩固美元的全球霸权。即使欧洲主权债务危机在短期内对于欧元产生了一定的冲击,但在长期仍有可能造就一个更强大的欧元。     

美欧债务危机、金融动荡与中国应对策略

美欧债务危机暴露了美欧模式的深层次弊端,金融和经济危机正向社会和政治领域不断蔓延。依照美欧奉行的错误政策,中国无论投入多少资金挽救美欧债务危机都是毫无希望的,因为这些资金将落入金融垄断财团腰包而不是用于挽救经济,虽然能暂时换来美欧称赞但长期将会刺激更多的欲望,一旦无法持续满足其贪欲,对方就会翻脸,导致关系更加恶化。     

The French commitment to European monetary integration: A review of the two EMS crises (1981–83, 1992–93)

This paper focuses on the process of exchange rate management during the two European Monetary System(EMS) crises, in 1981–83 and 1992–93, and examines the factors which led the French governments to adhere to the EMS. France's strong franc (franc fort) policy is a useful test case for maintaining national commitment to European monetary integration. The origin of the franc fort policy can be traced back to the exchange rate crisis of 1981–83. By actively supporting European institutions and emphasizing the emergence of a strong and united European common currency, France discovered the way to bolster confidence in her economic policy. Beyond this focal point, political justification and economic rationality became mutually reinforcing, configuring French national preference in European monetary integration. The response of the French government to the EMS crisis of 1992–93 was more consistent compared to the response to the 1981–83 crisis, and reflected the accumulation of loyalty to European monetary integration. This loyalty, however, was made neither from purely economic calculation nor out of normative commitment French European monetary policy reflected the interaction between domestic politics and European monetary integration. The French commitment to the franc fort also was based on domestic political bases such as the existence of a core policy group, a centralized policy‐making structure, and an issue linkage between the franc fort and European integration.     

Current account balances and structural adjustment in the euro area

In the past decade, a set of euro area countries has accumulated large current account deficits. After a brief relaxation of the euro area internal imbalances in the wake of the financial crisis, it appears as if this pattern arises anew when times normalize again and Germany still sticks to export-led growth. This issue has been labelled one of the most challenging economic policy issues for Europe inter alia by the European Commission and some other players on the EU level. In this paper, we analyse the role of private restructuring and structural reforms for the urgently needed sustainable readjustment of intra-euro area current account balances. A panel regression reveals a significant impact of structural reforms on intra-euro area current account balances. This implies that in particular structural reforms and wage restraint in notorious current account and budget deficit countries such as Greece are highly suitable to support long-term economic stability in Europe.     

Greece’s Three-Act Tragedy: A Simple Model of Grexit vs. Staying Afloat inside the Single Currency Area

Against the backdrop of the Greek three-act tragedy, we present a theoretical framework for studying Greece’s recent debt and currency crisis. The model is built on two essential blocks: first, erratic macroeconomic policymaking in Greece is described using a stochastic regime-switching model; second, the euro area governments’ responses to uncertain macroeconomic policies in Greece are considered. The model’s mechanism and assumptions allow either for a Grexit from the euro area or, conversely, the avoidance of Greece’s default against its creditors. The model also offers useful guidance to understand key drivers of the long-winded negotiations between the Greek government and the “institutions”.     

The 2010 euro crisis stand-off between France and Germany: leadership styles and political culture

In this paper, we argue that the severity of the 2010 euro crisis was caused by and reveals differences in leadership styles and political culture between European countries, especially between France and Germany. We trace these differences to differences in underlying values: culture. There is a historic pattern, visible especially during the European integration process. Cultural differences explain differences in attitude towards leadership and IMF involvement, lead to a stand-off and, thereby, dramatically increase the uncertainty about the commitment of the eurozone and the EU towards Greece.     

欧洲债务危机:原因、症结与出路

欧洲债务危机的发生既有内部原因又有外部原因。内部原因有欧元制度设计缺陷、危机国家政策失误、福利制度等,外部原因有金融危机影响、美元势力打压等。欧债危机的症结表现为六大矛盾,即欧元区国家与非欧元区国家之间的矛盾、欧元区内部发生危机国家与未发生危机国家之间的矛盾、援助国之间的矛盾、援助国内部的矛盾、债务国内部的矛盾、欧元与美元之间的矛盾。解决欧债危机必须多策并举:欧洲内部需要树立自信、增强他信,改革欧元、实施统一财政政策,保增长、促发展,改革福利制度;对外则需加强与美元势力的斗争,寻求中国等新兴工业化国家援助。     

Cooperative Monetary and Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area

This article discusses the interaction of fiscal and monetary policy in the euro area. Though many observers suggest a fiscal union as the next step of euro-area constitutional reform, a federal fiscal union does not appear politically feasible in the short run. We suggest moving forward with cooperative monetary and fiscal institutions and policies that allow for decentralized fiscal decisions, while taking federal stabilization policies into account. This approach will increase the probability of survival of the euro area compared with the current fiscal arrangements. Using a dynamic macro model, counterfactual simulation paths of our cooperative solution are contrasted with time-series data for the euro area.     

希腊主权债务危机:根源、影响和启示

为应对全球金融危机影响,2009年包括希腊在内的全球绝大多数国家均实施了积极的财政政策,希腊财政赤字急剧攀升,引发金融市场对其未来偿债能力担忧,由此产生了希腊主权债务危机问题。预计在欧元区其他国家以及欧盟的帮助下,希腊尚不会真正发生违约事件,但主权债务危机的影响短期内难以消除,主要发达经济体主权债务问题甚至有可能引发下一轮全球性危机。对中国而言,地方政府隐性债务问题应引起高度重视。     

From the transatlantic banking crisis to the euro crisis?

The Transatlantic Banking Crisis has strongly raised debt-GDP ratios in many OECD countries and this is undermining the economic recovery. As regards the euro zone there are special problems which are partly related to lack of fiscal discipline in Greece and to the Irish economic crisis which—largely unknown—basically reflects total failure of prudential supervision to apply EU directives and legislation, respectively. In this context the issue is raised whether or not there are structural problems with the Euro and monetary integration. Moreover, the debt dynamics of governments are analyzed and specifically the issue of whether there is a need for restructuring the debt of Greece. Taking a closer look at the figures for government assets in Greece, it seems possible to strongly reduce the debt-GDP ratio mainly by privatization. As regards Ireland, one may propose that the European Commission or the European Parliament take the country before the European Court of Justice. Finally, a new approach for determining the optimum debt-GDP ratio is presented.     

The Spillover Effect of Euro Area on Central and Southeastern European Economies: A Global VAR Approach

We use the global vector autoregression model to examine macroeconomic spillovers within the European Union over the period 2000-2014. We investigate how shocks originating in the euro area affect output and prices in the rest of Europe. We examine four different policy relevant shock scenarios: (i) increase in the euro area interest rate; (ii) increase in the euro area industrial production; (iii) decrease in the euro area consumer prices and (iv) decrease in global oil prices. In general, we find that these shocks have an effect of same (and expected) sign but of different size across the European Union. Our results suggest that the response of Central European countries to the euro area shocks is almost as strong as the response of the euro area countries itself. On the other hand, our results indicate that South East Europe is somewhat less sensitive to the euro area shocks and oil price shocks.     

Institutionalisation without internalisation. The cultural dimension of French-German conflicts on European Central Bank independence

When accepting the Maastricht treaty, the members of the Euro-zone agreed on the establishment of a very independent European Central Bank (ECB). Over the years, however, French political leaders systematically brought forward proposals undermining the ECB’s independence, much to the dismay of their German counterparts. This pattern of political disagreement on central bank independence has again surfaced during the current sovereign debt crisis, and has contributed to the discord amongst the Euro-zone members on the causes and proper solutions to the problems. This article conducts tests of various factors generally expected to influence the preference for central bank independence. It shows that economic explanations are unable to account for the persistent differences amongst European member-states on this issue. In contrast, national differences in political and economic culture and especially a nation’s score on the dimension Power Distance—its acceptance of centralisation of power in political leaders or institutions—does show a correlation with the different levels of internalisation of the norm of central bank independence. These findings show that institutionalisation of economic norms does not imply their internalisation by the political and the economic elite. In the broader context of current European politics, this may mean that even if European leaders will be able to come up with a common institutional answer to the current crisis, more profound convergence of their underlying economic and political cultures is needed for the successful and sustainable implementation of these solutions.     

Effect of exchange rate return on volatility spill-over across trading regions

This paper examines the effect of realized exchange rate returns on the volatility spill-over between the euro–US dollar and US dollar–yen currency pairs across the five trading regions: Asia, Asia–Europe overlap, Europe, Europe–America overlap and America. Modelling the interaction between returns and volatility in an autoregressive five-equation system, we find evidence that depreciation of the US dollar against the yen has a greater impact on the US dollar–yen volatility spill-over than appreciation in the subprime crisis period. Appreciation and depreciation of the US dollar against the euro does not appear to have an asymmetric effect on the euro–US dollar volatility spill-over. Our results support the notion that the yen may have been preferred to the euro as a ‘safe-haven’ currency relative to the US dollar during the subprime crisis period.     

Gaps in the debates about agriculture in Senegal,Tanzania and Mozambique

In three stable and in many ways successful governments in Africa claiming socialism, gaps in the politics which shape their agricultural policies and vested political interests have inhibited the resolution of agricultural problems. In Senegal the politics of distribution predominates, while crucial issues of structural change within production units and rural communities have not been squarely faced. In Tanzania the government has not shrunk from structural change, but it has found it difficult to deal clearly with the experience of promoting co-operative agricultural production and the issues it raises for power relations within communities and between communities and the state. In Mozambique the priority given to state farms has discouraged clear attention to the difficulties of peasant agriculture and its transformation towards producer co-operatives.     

“欧猪五国”主权债务危机及欧元发展前景

正当全球经济刚刚走出百年一遇的金融危机而进入复苏之际,从希腊开始的欧洲主权债务危机又给世界经济以巨大冲击。本文以"欧猪五国"为切入点,从危机国家自身经济结构、欧元体制和外部冲击三方面探讨"欧猪五国"债务危机发生的原因,并分析其对"欧猪五国"发展、欧元区生存、欧盟一体化进程和全球经济复苏所产生的影响。通过各方救助,目前"欧猪五国"的主权债务危机已有所缓解,断言危机国家将退出欧元区并因此而最终导致欧元崩溃缺乏根据,但这些国家要重新达到欧元区财政趋同标准必须经过痛苦的调整过程。     

Searching for the lender of last resort

The benighted Eurozone. Hardly any region of the world has had a worse press in the last five years than the community of 19 European countries that share a common currency, the euro. Judging by the tone of the global debate, the Eurozone must be a uniquely dysfunctional place, run by policymakers “who just don’t get it”. Yes, the Euro crisis was dangerous and very much for real. But much of the global debate missed the key points. We did not witness the inevitable demise of a misguided venture, the common currency, as many observers seemed to believe. Instead, we may be witnessing the birth pains of a stronger, more dynamic and more coherent economic and political entity in Europe.     

Exchange policy in the eurozone and its influence on the dynamics of industrial production

The exchange policy of the European Union during the crisis and the characteristics of its implementation by the European Central bank are considered in this paper. The interaction between the real efficient exchange rate of the euro and the dynamics of industrial production, and between the nominal efficient exchange rate of the euro and inflation, are studied.     

对欧元区共同边界效应的检验——兼论欧元区是否满足最优货币区的条件

2011年,欧洲债务危机不断发展,欧元区的稳定性受到挑战。本文基于2005～2009年25个国家的双边贸易面板数据,使用引力模型检验了欧元区国家间的共同边界效应。结论发现,欧元区核心国家之间不存在共同边界效应,而全部欧元区成员国间存在较为明显的共同边界效应。这说明,由于扩大过快,现在的欧元区一体化程度难以达到最优货币区的要求。对欧元区17国的聚类分析验证了我们的结论。     

The European Monetary Policy Responses During the Pandemic Crisis

This paper uses an event-based analysis to describe how the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) policy responses to the pandemic crisis have affected the European financial and economic system. The result of our exercise, which is based on the examination of the main measures taken by the ECB during 2020, is that these responses have positively affected the European economic system by improving banks’ lending activity and by indirectly creating room for expansionary fiscal policies in the euro area’s high-debt countries that do not have fiscal capacity.