美国纺织服装区域性生产网络与中美纺织品协议的效应评估

为了应对全球化的挑战,美国与周边的墨西哥和加勒比海地区(CBI)国家合作,形成了一条以纵向一体化为核心的区域性纺织服装生产网络(regional production network,RPN)。由于RPN合作国家是美国纺织产业重要的出口市场,因此后者在该网络中具有既得利益。美国政府进而签订的《中芙纺织品协议》(以下简称"协议")旨在抑制后配额时代中国输美服装类产品对该RPN的冲击。本文就"协议"的实施对相关贸易流量的影响进行了评估。结果显示,"协议"已经对中国输美服装类产品产生贸易破坏效应,而墨西哥和CBI国家对美国的服装出口则从中受益。然而,研究并未显示"协议"的实施有助于美国增加纱线、面料等纺织类产品向RPN合作国家的出口,因而"协议"对美国纺织产业的实际保护效应有必要予以反思。本文的研究结论对于2008年"协议"到期后相关政策的制定和调整具有重要的借鉴意义。     

U.S. Monetary Policy and Herding: Evidence from Commodity Markets

Atlantic Economic Journal - This paper investigates the presence of herding behavior across a spectrum of commodities (i.e., agricultural, energy, precious metals, and metals) futures prices...     

Expense Preference Behavior and Contract-Management: Evidence from U.S. Hospitals

This paper reports on a study of expense preference behavior in a conditional sample of hospitals (before and after adoption of contract-management arrangements) using an extension of Mester's (1989) test. To identify expense preference parameters, input demand equations are considered in addition to the cost function and are estimated jointly with the cost function as a system of nonlinear equations. Based on this test, contract managers do not appear to be cost minimizers, although they tend to exhibit lower expense preference behavior than salaried managers. The importance of our results, however, goes beyond a single industry because we have shown that estimates of expense preference depend critically upon the particular input demand being studied. Studies that hitherto have relied on single input demand equations or on the cost function alone may have to be reinterpreted in this light.     

日美贸易摩擦中的美国“对日修正主义”研究

20世纪80年代中后期产生的日本异质论及美国"对日修正主义"是日美经贸摩擦延伸至体制领域的重要表现。它既是冷战结束前后国际政治格局变化和美国国内政治气候变迁的产物,又具有深刻的学术和舆论背景。美国"对日修正主义"者从资本主义发展模式的差异、日本政治经济体制及其相应政策手段的特殊性、美国对日贸易策略等三个方面阐述了其理论观点,在美国舆论界、学术界和决策层中产生了巨大的影响。     

Tariff protection and workforce gender: Evidence from U.S. manufacturing industries

A data set of 266 four-digit SIC U.S. manufacturing industries is used to examine the relationship between tariff protection and workforce gender. The paper shows that industries with a relatively large proportion of women are more likely to be protected by U.S. tariff policy, even when factors such as wages and human capital are controlled. Furthermore, this result is robust in that it is not driven by any particular industry or industries.     

Congressional Memberships as Political Advertising: Evidence from the U.S. Senate

The present article analyzes signaling by elected officials of moderate or centrist legislative behavior from a benefits/costs perspective. To do so, we provide statistical evidence regarding the tendency of senators to join the U.S. Senate Centrist Coalition, a congressional membership organization of moderate legislators. We find that changes in party loyalty, perhaps due to changes in constituent preferences, and U.S. Senate tenure are both important determinants of membership in the Centrist Coalition. Tests also point out that freshman senators are more likely than more senior senators to seek membership as a form of information provision.     

Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Trade Flows: Evidence from Industry Data

Previous research that investigated the relation between U.S. trade flows and the value of the dollar either employed trade data between the United States and the rest of the world or between the United States and her major trading partners. In this paper we use monthly import and export data from 66 industries in the United States SITC Commodity Groupings over the January 1991-August 2002 period as well as cointegration analysis and show that in the long run real depreciation of the dollar stimulates export earnings of many U.S. industries, whereas it has no significant impact on most importing industries.     

美国经济波动对东亚经济的影响

经济全球化使世界经济紧密联系在一起,各国经济也更易受到外部经济冲击的影响。本文考察了美国经济波动对东亚8个开放经济体的影响,结果显示,东亚经济大约有18%的波动来源于美国经济的冲击,这主要是因为美国和东亚保持着紧密的贸易和金融联系。由于各经济体在经济总量、汇率制度安排等方面的差异,造成受美国经济波动的影响也不相同。总体看,这些冲击持续的时间大约在15个季度。     

Vertical foreign direct investment: Evidence from Japanese and U.S. multinational enterprises

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries has increased since the 1990s, but there is mixed evidence of vertical FDI associated with factor-seeking motives. This paper estimates the vertical motive of offshore production by multinational enterprises (MNEs) by exploiting past schooling characteristics as instruments for skilled-labor abundance in a host country. Using panel data on Japanese and U.S. MNEs in the 1990s, I find that skilled-labor abundance has a significantly negative impact on sales of manufacturing foreign affiliate only for Japanese MNEs. The results suggest that vertical FDI activity was more prevalent in Japanese MNEs than U.S. MNEs. A plausible explanation is that Japanese MNEs might be more vertically integrated with their offshore production than U.S. MNEs. A difference in foreign outsourcing activities could generate the observed deviation between Japanese and U.S. MNEs.     

Trade Openness and Vertical Integration: Evidence from the U.S. Manufacturing Sector

The present article aims to empirically examine a relationship between trade openness and the pattern of vertical integration using the six‐digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) of U.S. manufacturing data from 2002 to 2006. We use the index of vertical integration made out of inter‐plant transfers data by the U.S. Census Bureau, and we consider three proxies of trade openness—import penetration, export shares, and trade penetration. The empirical results substantiate 2000 theoretical proposition that trade openness undermines motives for vertical integration.     

Dynamics of U.S. State Cigarette Consumption: Evidence from Panel Error Correction Modeling

This study uses state-level data for nearly four decades to study the dynamic demand for cigarettes, focusing especially on the long-run equilibrium relationship between cigarette consumption and its determinants as well as the short-run and long-run causal dynamics. We find the presence of cointegration with the long-run equilibrium, indicating the price elasticity of cigarette demand to be negative and inelastic, the income elasticity is positive and the border smuggling effects are significant, with substantial variations across individual states. Of the various smoking control policies considered, questions remain as to the effectiveness of aggregate anti-smoking initiatives that treat all states alike. Furthermore, the causal dynamics reveal bi-directional causality between cigarette consumption and its determinants. Some policy implications are discussed.     

Preliminary Evidence on the Allocation of U.S. Army Deaths from Operation Iraqi Freedom

Political influence on the use of the nation's war-making resources is considered in this study. Given the ‘tax-like’ consequences arising from military fatalities, rational political agents may engage in behavior that minimizes the negative electoral consequences resulting from the fatalities. An empirical model of the state-by-state allocation of U.S. Army fatalities resulting from Operation Iraqi Freedom is developed and tested. The results suggest that political influence originating in the White House is present in the allocation of fatalities from the military action in Iraq, but that Congressional effects, if any, are much weaker. In particular, population-adjusted fatality rates are lower in states that were highly contested ‘battleground’ states rich in Electoral College votes in the 2004 Presidential election.     

The Return to Hours and Workers in U.S. Manufacturing: Evidence on Aggregation Bias

Reliance on overtime or part-time work is contested by organized labor and suggests employers exploit trade-offs between workers and hours. Worker-hour models predict return to hours and workers' estimates are crucial in evaluating the trade-off between them. This paper uses data that vary by industry to test and reject a common production structure across industries used in prior work; this aggregation is shown to yield an upward bias in return-to-hours estimates. Contrary to prior evidence, the industry-specific return-to-hour estimates are lower than return-to-worker estimates and are generally less than one, suggesting that trade-offs between workers and hours may be cost effective.     

美国对中国反倾销的宏观决定因素及其影响效应

本文运用负二项计数模型,探究了美国对中国反倾销的宏观决定因素及其影响效应,研究发现:(1)反倾销的宏观决定因素有美国工业生产增长率、失业率、从中国进口渗透率、美元对人民币实际汇率变动率、美国对中国出口比重和中国对美出口比重以及美国反倾销法变化;(2)美国工业生产增长率下降、失业率增加、从中国进口渗透率提高和美元对人民币实际汇率变动率上升,会增加美国对中国反倾销调查及最终措施数量;而美国对中国出口比重增加,会降低对中国反倾销调查及最终措施数量。相比来看,美国从中国进口渗透增加是对中国反倾销的最主要决定因素;美国反倾销法的变化增加了对中国反倾销数量,而中国对美出口比重减小会对美反倾销行动产生抑制效应。     

Changing Perceptions of Maturity Mismatch in the U.S. Banking System: Evidence from Equity Markets

We use the sensitivity of bank holding company equity returns to market interest rates as an indicator of perceived maturity mismatch. Based on data from 1990 to 2009, there is only weak evidence that market participants perceived banks to be effectively short‐funded. However, looking at 1990–1996 and 1997–2009 subsamples separately, our results suggest that U.S. commercial banks were perceived as short‐funded during the earlier time period but not the later. During this time of changing perceptions of maturity mismatch, banks were increasing their holdings of real estate loans as a share of total assets. We present evidence that, subsequent to 1996, market participants perceived real estate loans as having become effectively shorter‐term.     

中国、俄罗斯与美国证券市场的联动效应——来自次贷危机爆发后三阶段的证据

本文采用时间序列多元GARCH模型,研究中国、俄罗斯与美国证券市场指数收益率波动之间的内生性联动效应,重点分析美国次贷危机发生后的三个主要阶段,这种联动效应的变化特征。并提出中国和俄罗斯规避可能风险的对策。结果显示:(1)若中国与俄罗斯加强证券市场的合作,形成比较稳定的风险联动机制,美国金融危机所引起的证券市场波动就不会对中国、俄罗斯市场产生传导影响。反之,(2)若中国和俄罗斯市场丧失了风险联动机制,金融危机对俄罗斯证券市场的影响就会变得非常显著,同时也会提高对中国证券市场风险传导的显著性。(3)美国证券市场的波动幅度呈现明显的上升趋势,风险在逐渐集聚,中俄两国必须引起高度关注。     

FDI、生产非一体化与美中贸易逆差

美中贸易逆差自上个世纪90年代初出现以来呈不断扩大的趋势,以往对此问题的研究视角有汇率论、转口贸易论、美国因素论,以及新近出现的国民贸易统计论等。本文从制造业FDI的投资程度及加工贸易视角出发,就美中贸易逆差问题建立了多元回归模型,并运用VDI生产非一体化指标和VST垂直专业化贸易指标对美中贸易逆差分别进行了格兰杰因果关系检验。研究结果表明,FDI及其所主导的加工贸易是两国贸易逆差产生的根本原因之一,生产非一体化与垂直专业化贸易对关中贸易逆差具有单向促进作用。如果不改变关中两国在全球生产体系中的角色,两国贸易逆差很可能继续维持甚至逆差幅度会进一步扩大。在此基础上,本文简要给出了相关结论并指出了后续研究方向。     

Market and Welfare Effects of the U.S. Livestock Mandatory Reporting Act

This paper analyzes the market and welfare effects of the United States Livestock Mandatory Reporting Act enacted in 2001. The act mandates meat packers to report their transactions daily to a government agency and requires the agency to make a summary of those transactions available to the public through the Mandatory Livestock Meat Market News Reports. Considering the case of an imperfect packer cartel that uses trigger price strategies, this paper examines the impact of market information provided by the reports on equilibrium livestock slaughter and the welfare of the groups involved and identifies the determinants of the socially optimal level of information. A key result of the paper is that, even when facilitating collusion among packers, increased market information can be social welfare enhancing.