Inflation,taxes and housing: A theoretical analysis

This paper examines the real effects of inflation under a distortionary tax system. The presence of a tax subsidy to housing substantially alters the effects of inflation on the capital intensity of production and on the market interest rate. The analysis suggests that not taxing the flow of services from housing has caused inflation to reduce capital intensity, thereby decreasing U.S. productivity. Furthermore, this tax subsidy has caused inflation to raise the real interest rate while reducing the after-tax real returns to assets.     

通货膨胀福利成本与消费攀比

本文在一个引入消费攀比的McCallum-Goodfriend框架中,讨论了通货膨胀的福利成本。在政府开支由收入税、一次总付税和铸币税融资的假定下,消费攀比程度与通货膨胀福利成本之间的相关性受收入税率的影响。另外,本文所得到的福利成本要稍高于Lucas模型中的成本。本文还发现,当经济中不存在消费攀比时,最优收入税率和最优名义利率都等于零;反之,则最优名义利率等于零,最优收入税率不等于零。     

TAXES AND INCOME: A MICROUNIT ANALYSIS

The paper details the methodology used and the results obtained in a recently completed study of the total U.S. tax burden based on microdata survey files. The method of constructing the data base—the 1966 MERGE file—is discussed, and the needed imputations and adjustments to income and taxes to bring the file totals up to national income aggregates are described. An explanation is included of adjusted family income, a unique income concept used in the study to measure and compare tax burdens.
The study involved the evaluation of errective tax burdens under eight different assumptions regarding the incidence of the various major taxes. Those assumptions are detailed and the results of the study are presented. The essential conclusion of the study is that the overall impact of the tax system is virtually proportional for 90 percent of the families in the United States regardless of the incidence assumptions used. However, substantial differences in tax burdens were found among various subgroups of the population.     

Asymmetric tax multipliers

Using recently published tax series by Romer and Romer (2010) and Cloyne (2013) we examine whether or not positive and negative tax shocks have asymmetric effects on the U.S. and U.K. economies. We find that in the U.S. positive tax shocks—tax increases—do not affect output while negative tax shocks—tax cuts—have large, positive effects. In the U.K., tax increases substantially reduce output while tax cuts have no significant effect.     

Tales of fiscal adjustment

This paper examines the evidence on fiscal adjustments in OECD countries from the early 1960s to today. The results shed light on the recently observed phenomenon of fiscal tightening that produces (non-Keynesian) expansionary effects. One interpretation is that a serious fiscal tightening increases demand. Wealth rises when future tax burdens decline, and when interest rates decline credibility is restored and inflation or default risks abate. Both consumption and investment rise. For this effect to produce an expansion, the tightening must be sizeable and occur after a period of stress when the budget is quickly deteriorating and public debt is building up. Another interpretation emphasizes the supply side. Typically, a fiscal consolidation based on tax increases is short-lived. To be long lasting, it must include cuts in public employment, transfers and government wages. To be politically possible, such a policy must be supported by trade unions. These measures result in more efficient labour markets and boost the supply side. Based both on statistical evidence and on a detailed analysis of ten cases of major fiscal adjustment, this article provides cautious support to the supply-side view, without denying a more limited role for the demand-side channel.     

The ineffectiveness of effective tax rates on business investment: A critique of Feldstein's Fisher-Schultz lecture

In his Fisher-Schultz Lecture, Martin Feldstein (1982) examined the effects of non-neutral tax rules on business investment by estimating three econometric models, and he concluded that ‘the rising rate of inflation has, because of the structure of existing U.S. tax rules, substantially discouraged investment in the past 15 years’. In a detailed examination of Feldstein's Effective Tax Rate model and a less extensive review of his other formulations (neoclassical and return-over-cost), we advance a number of important and independent criticisms, and find that these three models fail to support Feldstein's conclusion that taxes have exerted a significantly depressing effect on net investment during the recent inflation episode.     

Inflation,depreciation and optimal production

Depreciation is an economic outlay, though not a cash outflow. It is recognized as an outlay for tax purposes. This paper deals only with the tax effect of the depreciation method, emphasizing the impact of inflation on both the optimal depreciation method and optimal combination of production factors chosen by firms. In the U.S. and other countries accelerated forms of depreciation were adopted. These methods are analyzed and an optimal one is proposed.     

城镇居民间接税负担的演变

本文研究了进入新世纪以来,税收收入高速增长对于城镇不同收入家庭间接税负担的影响.收入越高的家庭负担的间接税越多,但是税收占收入的比例却是低收入家庭的比例大于高收入家庭的比例,间接税是累退的.从2000年到2005年,所有家庭的税收负担比例都增加了,税收累退的程度没有变化.通过把税收负担变化分为税收征管和经济结构引起的实际税率变化和家庭消费结构变化两部分,本文发现实际税率提高是近年来所有家庭税收负担增加的主要原因.     

增值税扩围改革有助于减轻服务业税负吗?——基于投入产出表的分析

增值税扩围改革对服务业行业流转税负担的影响同时包含"税率提高的增税效应"与"进项抵扣的减税效应"。利用投入产出表数据分析并测算增值税扩围改革影响各服务业行业流转税负变动的净效应,结果发现:不同服务业行业的税负变化情况差异较大,商务服务业等大多数行业的税负将减轻,但租赁业等部分行业的税负会加重,税改后的增值税税率水平选择与中间投入比率是影响服务业行业税负变动的主要因素。为了优化服务业发展的税收环境,使增值税扩围改革有助于减轻服务业的流转税负,应根据税负平衡点审慎选择服务业行业税改后适用的增值税税率。当前制定的租赁业、交通运输业的试点税率水平偏高,有必要予以降低。     

The redistributive effects of inflation and of the introduction of a real tax system in the U.S. bond market

This paper investigates which types of borrowers and lenders in the U.S. bond market gain (or lose) as result of the interaction of inflation with a nominal and discriminating tax structure. It is shown that an increase in the rate of inflation favors tax exempt institutions, and probably other lenders too. Corporate borrowers probably gain while mortage borrowers probably lose. The paper also investigates the one shot redistributive effects of indexing the tax structure. It is shown that the reform hurts tax exempt institutional investors and, probably, other lenders too. It hurts corporate borrowers and probably favors state and local governments and mortgage borrowers.     

POLITICAL ECONOMY AND THE EFFICIENCY OF COMPENSATION FOR TAKINGS

To assess compensation for regulation-induced "takings," the authors model political support for regulation as a function of externalities, landowner wealth, and tax burdens. When competing social interests have equal influence on political outcomes, compensation should not be paid. However, when environmentalists and property owners have unequal influence, the model yields several counterintuitive implications. For example, disenfranchised environmentalists should support takings compensation, since it reduces landowner opposition to regulation. The authors also show how compensation rules can limit the deadweight social costs of income transfers, while recognizing their effects on regulator and landowner behavior. (JEL K11 , D72 , L51 )     

Inflation and its variability : Some comments and the Dutch case

Some results concerning the rate and variability of inflation in the Netherlands during the period 1952–1975 are presented and contrasted with similar results for the U.S.A.     

The effect of VAT rate on inflation in Latvia: evidence from CPI microdata

This article evaluates the inflation effect of recent value added tax (VAT) rate changes in Latvia by using consumer price index (CPI) microdata. Our findings suggest that the pass-through of the tax rate to consumer prices is strong in case of upward tax adjustments, especially when there are no demand restrictions, while the pass-through is weaker for tax reductions. The frequency of price changes peaks at the moment of VAT adjustment, which, however, is partially compensated by lower average size of price revisions. The level of pass-through exhibits a high degree of heterogeneity with higher pass-through for goods, especially food, and lower for services.     

THE EVOLUTION OF VAT RATES AND GOVERNMENT TAX REVENUE IN MEXICO

As a response to the 1994 Mexican peso crisis, in April 1995 the Mexican government increased the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate from 10 to 15%. More recently, policy makers have debated the potential economic impact of a reduction in the VAT rate on VAT revenue. Using a vector autoregression (VAR) model, this article analyzes the dynamics between government spending, inflation, the VAT rate, and VAT revenue in Mexico. The results from the estimated impulse response functions and variance decompositions indicate that VAT rate hikes lead to increases in government tax receipts. Further, tax collections play an important role in explaining movements in the rate of inflation in the Mexican economy. Overall, the findings are consistent with the view that increases (decreases) in the VAT rate result in larger (smaller) tax revenues.     

On the marginal excess burden of taxation in an overlapping generations model

We extend marginal excess burden (MEB) analysis in public finance literature to a dynamic general equilibrium model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous households. This extension allows us to quantitatively assess efficiency ranking and incidence of taxes. Our results indicate a disparity in welfare cost and distributional consequence of different forms of taxation on capital, labor and consumption. According to our MEB ranking, capital income taxation appears to be least efficient as it results in larger marginal excess burdens, compared to labor income tax and consumption tax. The tax incidence analysis shows variation of tax burdens across households, depending on their age, income type and generation. In particular, older households with higher income bear the highest burden of company income tax; meanwhile, future born households bear the highest burden of personal income tax. Hence, our MEB analysis demonstrates a fruitful approach to better understanding efficiency and incidence of tax reforms in one unified framework.     

INFLATION INEQUALITY IN THE UNITED STATES

Different spending patterns across households and differences in price increases across goods and services lead to unequal levels of inflation faced by different households. In this paper we measure the degree of inequality in inflation across U.S. households for the period 1987–2000. The broad picture that emerges from our results is that over our whole sample period there are substantial differences in the inflation experiences across U.S. households. We find that the cost of living increases were generally higher for the elderly, in large part because of their health care expenditures, and that the cost of living of poor households is most sensitive to the, historically large, fluctuations in gasoline prices. Still, when looking at the whole population, we find that individual households that are confronted with high inflation in one year do not generally face high inflation in the subsequent year as well.     

Did FIN 48 increase companies’ tax payments? Trade-off between disclosure and tax burdens

This article examines the effects of implementing FIN 48 on companies’ tax burdens. While the literature examines how FIN 48 impacts companies’ financial reporting, its effect on tax payments has not yet been explored. We find that FIN 48 likely increased larger companies’ tax burdens. Prior to the adoption of FIN 48, larger companies may have used their asymmetric information advantage over the tax authorities to maintain relatively aggressive tax positions. To the extent that such tax-saving strategies were possible only for larger companies, FIN 48 appears to have reduced the appeal of these more aggressive tax minimization strategies.     

SHOULD WE CARE ABOUT THE COMPOSITION OF TAX‐BASED STIMULUS PACKAGES?

We investigate the effects of tax policy shocks on the U.S. economy over the 1972:3–2008:4 period within a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) framework. Disaggregating tax shocks suggests that the positive output multipliers documented for total taxes by the previous literature are present only for indirect tax innovations. We also show that both labor and corporate taxes have similar effects on output, with labor tax multipliers being slightly larger in magnitude. The positive and negative responses of inflation following respectively corporate and labor tax shocks imply that former shocks work through aggregate supply, whereas the latter work predominantly through aggregate demand. (JEL C32, E62, H20)     

Is currency seigniorage exogenous for inflation tax in Turkey?

This paper discusses the implications of the validity of the conditioning hypothesis for the maintained money demand equation for an inflation tax analysis. We also test the validity of the quantity-theoretical inflation tax model for the post-1980 quarterly Turkish data by using Johansen cointegration techniques. The results suggest that the tax rate (inflation) is weakly exogenous for the parameters of the long-run money demand (tax base) equation. This result, consistent with a Keynesian endogenous seigniorage-exogenous inflation tax rate theory prior, does not support the hypothesis that the Turkish inflation can be explained by the conventional inflation tax revenue-maximizing motive alone.     

我国个人所得税：如何调节收入分配

传统观点认为个人所得税是公平与效率权衡的产物。但是,这种结论并没有考虑逃税因素。如果将逃税因素纳入分析框架,个人所得税调节收入分配的机制在不同条件下将存在差异,公平与效率可能同时实现。本文从公众收入中存在的隐性收入出发,分析了这种收入对个人所得税调节收入分配的影响,并总结出个人所得税存在高结构累进性与低结构累进性两种再分配机制。对于我国而言,低结构累进性的个人所得税才能发挥调节收入分配的作用。