Probabilistic assessment of fleet-level noise impacts of projected technology improvements

Demand projections for civil aviation have forecast increases in operations in future decades. Increases in demand are beneficial to the growth and advancement of the aviation industry, but also come with the threat of significant increase in environmental impacts. In response, the industry is focusing on programs to develop technologies for reductions in fuel burn, NO_x emissions, and noise. While aircraft-level impacts are an obvious metric of success, it is difficult to make informed robust technology investment decisions with respect to noise without understanding the fleet-level impacts. Fleet-level predictions of noise for technology explorations are especially complicated because it is computationally expensive, highly combinatorial, and airport-specific. Recently, rapid automated airport noise models have been developed, which can be simulated using Design of Experiments (DOE). The results of these simulations are used to generate surrogate models for airport noise contour area, which can be summed to yield a fleet-level impact. These models make use of simplifying assumptions to provide estimates of airport-level noise that are substantially cheaper to compute. They can be used to perform parametric trade-off analyses in conjunction with the equivalency assumption. Equivalency asserts that environmental impacts of a technology infused aircraft can be represented by scaled operations of the baseline aircraft in the same class. This simple assumption allows for the modeling of technology and market penetration factors under the same units: operations. This research uses surrogate models in conjunction with the equivalency assumption to examine two potential technology scenarios in a target forecast year, simulating technology and market performance factors to identify vehicle classes that could have the greatest impact in reducing contour area. Results show that technology and market performance of future notional Small Single Aisle and Large Single Aisle vehicle aircraft have the highest positive correlations with potential reductions in contour area.     

A GHG reduction obligation for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) in the EU and in Germany

Despite various legal drivers already in place, a large-scale use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) is still missing. Thus, bringing SAF for GHG reduction reasons into the day-to-day business more effective market injection mechanisms are needed. In this context, direct and indirect effects of a greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction obligation in the EU and in Germany are analysed, considering an obligation level of 2% in 2023 increasing stepwise to 10% by 2030 following the goals derived from transport-related RED II targets. For such GHG reduction obligations referred to the entire EU 27 and the entire German aviation fuel uplifts, obligation induced SAF demands possibly exceed future SAF production quantities by a factor of about two without effective capacity expansion exceeding the published expansion plans. The considered SAF options lead to an aviation fuel price increases of 5–45% referring to a conventional aviation fuel price of 550 €/t. Aviation related EU ETS and German aviation tax revenues are mostly insufficient to significantly cover obligation-induced SAF costs or additional fuel costs. Fostering a broad spectrum of SAF technologies will thus require obligation related sub-mechanisms, due to (significantly) different SAF compliance costs. Thereby, sub-mandates represent the most effective approach. In terms of obligation avoidance measures, tankering – in contrast to three re-routing options considered – is likely to be economically feasible for airlines and requires appropriate countermeasures.     

Statistical modelling of runway incursion occurences in the United States

Runway incursions are an important aviation safety concern; between 2002 and 2015 there were 16,785 runway incursions at United States airports ranging in size from small general aviation (GA) to large commercial airline hubs. When examining airports with the 50 highest incursion count over the past 5 years, the predominant categories were large hubs, which accounted for 21 airports and general aviation (GA) airports which accounted for 16 airports. In June 2015, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced the Runway Incursion Mitigation (RIM) program to identify airport risk factors that might contribute to a runway incursion and develop strategies to help airport stakeholders mitigate those risks. Different size airports serve different aircraft fleets, serve different operating volumes, and have different resources available (both funds and technologies) for incursion mitigation. Therefore, it is valuable to determine the correlating factors that affect incursions at different size airports. This paper uses econometrics based modelling techniques to identify statistically significant factors in data provided by the (FAA) public web sites on runway incursions. The model identified statistically significant variables that correlate with incursions, based on severity, for airports categories defined by the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS).The model results indicate that operational incidents (OI) are more likely at large hub airports. In contrast, at GA/non-hub airports, pilot deviations (PD) were significant for less severe incursions (severity C and D). Only one variable, “number of years since 2002”, was found to be significant for all the three airport categories; this variable was correlated with severity A incursions and indicated a statistically significant reduction in severity A incursions, despite an overall 80% increase in incursions between 2002 and 2015.     

Drivers and barriers to the adoption and diffusion of Sustainable Jet Fuel (SJF) in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Sustainable Jet Fuel (SJF) represents an important component of the airline industry's strategy to simultaneously reduce GHG emissions while meeting a growing demand for international air travel. SJFs also have the potential to provide fuel supply diversification and security, enhance fuel price stability and provide regional/rural economic development benefits. This paper measures and ranks perceived drivers and barriers to an economically viable SJF industry in a unique U.S. region, the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW), through personal interviews with key aviation fuel supply chain stakeholders conducted from June to September 2015. In addition to providing a fertile arena for this first effort to systematically assess these drivers and barriers, the U.S. PNW is unique due to the region's long strategic focus on aviation innovation and its importance to the regional economy, the seminal efforts in the region to outline a path forward on SJF beginning in 2010, and the relatively small population spread over a large geographic area with a limited number of “hub” airport nodes which geographically concentrates aviation fuel demand and distribution. Nineteen stakeholder interviewees acknowledge that, in order for regional SJF adoption-diffusion to occur, airline jet fuel buyers must drive the process, particularly as they deal with greenhouse gas (GHG) emission issues and related policy considerations. Important perceived barriers to SJF industry scale-up in the U.S. PNW include the high production costs of SJF and related issues, such as fuel logistics and quality control in the transport, storage, and blending of SJFs. Perceptions around chain-of-custody issues, such as blending, tracking, and crediting of SJFs and future SJF market share projections for the year 2030 were also examined. Incorporating stakeholder input into discussions about adding blended SJF into the U.S. aviation fuel supply provides needed insight for the biofuels industry, policymakers, and researchers.     

How influential factors affect aviation networks: A Bayesian network analysis

The aviation industry was the catalyst for the economic development of advanced cities, and there has been a close relationship between the development of cities' aviation industries and economic indexes. Researchers have long been interested in investigating which economic factors affect the passenger and cargo volumes of airports. By leveraging statistical analysis, most existing research only indicates the significant factors affecting aviation networks and quantifies the positive or negative relationship between those factors and aviation passenger volume. However, it is difficult to envisage how the degree of changes in economic factors affects aviation networks, especially passenger and cargo volume. This paper utilizes Bayesian network analysis to bridge this gap. The airport-level data collected from OAG was combined with city- or country-level economic data that are exploited to build the Bayesian network. We find that GDP and inflation directly influence passenger and cargo volume, while fuel prices directly influence only cargo volume. Both networks change with time, indicating that evolving external economic factors influence the network. This study is the pioneer in using Bayesian network analysis to analyze aviation networks. We identify how airport passenger and cargo volumes change with respect to different degrees of economic factors change. In addition, the Bayesian network exhibits the output in a probabilistic way to fully address the uncertainty worldwide. The findings could potentially facilitate policymakers’ decisions to improve global aviation network development.     

Analyzing the effect of aviation infrastructure over aviation fuel consumption reduction

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of various aviation infrastructure dimensions over aviation fuel consumption reduction (AFCR) performance. This study is an effort that considers the role of dimensions collectively from all aspects belonging to aviation infrastructure. The relevance of dimensions and constructs for hypothesis development are based on extensive literature review. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) were performed in the consecutive purification processes. Also, hypothesis testing was conducted using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). A customized questionnaire was developed for collecting data from both kinds of respondents: Aviation industry experts and academic experts. Out of 382 approaches through mail survey, a total of 194 valid responses were collected. Analysis of the results shows the positive and significant impact of various factors such as: airport design, airspace management and air traffic control over the aviation fuel consumption reduction. Maximum importance is adjudged on air traffic control (ATC) and airspace route flexibility. The results of this study will encourage airlines and airport development authorities to increase their insight over aviation infrastructure, also to perform deeper analysis and find out precise values for real life implications.     

跨境电商视角下机场航空物流发展对策探析

我国跨境电子商务发展迅速,业务需求不断攀升,为航空物流企业未来发展增添动力,机场正在成为跨境电商物流中的重要环节。基于我国航空跨境电商物流发展现状,梳理机场跨境电商物流业务模式,分析机场跨境电商物流存在问题,进一步提出完善机场跨境电商货运设施建设、提高机场跨境电商清关能力、推进空铁联运和“卡车航班”、积极构建跨境电商信息服务平台、优化国际货运航班时刻资源等对策,以更好促进机场业务模式转变,对提高机场综合竞争力和完善现代物流体系具有重要意义。     

Commodity price pass-through in the US airline industry and the hidden perks of consolidation

How do changing jet fuel prices impact airline revenues? As expenses for jet fuel are one of the most relevant cost factors for airlines, their economic success largely depends on the ability to match changes on the cost side with an adaption on the revenue side. While previous studies primarily focused on the impact of fuel price changes to consumer prices, this paper empirically examines the ability of US airlines to pass-through lagged jet fuel prices to scaled operating revenues from an airline driven perspective. Our results suggest that the extent to which an exogenous increase in fuel prices can be passed on to revenues will deviate according to the competitive situation faced by an airline. Based on these findings our research should also be of interest for European policy makers who are discussing actions to exogenously increase jet fuel prices due to environmental reasons.     

Economic appraisal in Norwegian aviation

The Norwegian Civil Aviation Administration (NCAA) is responsible for investments and operations regarding the Norwegian airport system, and the air traffic management systems. This paper presents methods for economic appraisal in the aviation sector, proposed for use within the NCAA's jurisdiction. Methodological problems will be addressed, such as the handling of project risk and uncertainty, projects with mutual dependency, and projects influencing accident risks. The cost–benefit analysis methodology proposed here may give conflicting recommendations compared with financial analyses. This raises decision-making problems for public agencies like the NCAA.     

Aviation planning policy in Australia: Identifying frames of reference to support public decision making

Aviation planning policy in Australia, particularly as it pertains to the expansion of privatized capital city airports, continues to be problematic as a result of legislation that requires federal approval for infrastructure-related projects on airport land, but only requires other stakeholders, such as state and local governments, together with resident groups, to be consulted. This study employs Q-methodology to identify the frames of references held by those participating in the Australian aviation stakeholder arena to develop a better understanding of the context in which existing federal policy sits and to allow airport planners to navigate their way through the views of relevant stakeholders. The identification of these frames of reference across three Australian capital city airports also revealed two underlying nation-wide discourses of ‘power’ and ‘functionality’ pertaining to utilization of the airport space, and aviation in general. These outcomes, though not providing a solution to existing controversies relating to airport expansion, nevertheless concretize the prevailing discourses that should be addressed when formulating and enacting aviation planning policy across the nation.     

Risk analysis of the EASA minimum fuel requirements considering the ACARE-defined safety target

We present the results of flight simulator experiments (60 runs) with randomly selected airline pilots under realistic operational conditions and discuss them in light of current fuel regulations and potential fuel starvation. The experiments were conducted to assess flight crew performance in handling complex technical malfunctions including decision-making in fourth-generation jet aircraft. Our analysis shows that the current fuel requirements of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) are not sufficient to guarantee the safety target of the Advisory Council for Aviation Research and Innovation in Europe (ACARE), which is less than one accident in 10 million flights. To comply with this safety target, we recommend increasing the Final Reserve Fuel from 30 min to 45 min for jet aircraft. The minimum dispatched fuel upon landing should be at least 1 h.     

The market development of aviation biofuel: Drivers and constraints

Aviation biofuel is technically viable and nearing the commercial stage. In the last ten years, biofuels have moved from relative obscurity to a point where certain types of fuel have become fully certified for commercial use in up to 50% blends with standard jet fuel and commercial partnerships between airlines and biofuel producers are being established. Yet despite numerous successful test flights, aviation biofuels have yet to become widely commercialised. Drawing on the findings of in-depth interviews with leading global aviation biofuel stakeholders undertaken between October and December 2011, this paper identifies and examines the perceived factors that are affecting the market development of biofuels for aviation. The paper illustrates that market development is being driven by the combined effects of rising jet fuel prices, the potential future impact of emissions legislation and concerns about fuel (in)security. However, commercialisation is being constrained by high production costs, limited availability of suitable feedstocks, uncertainty surrounding the definition of the sustainability criteria, and a perceived lack of both national and international political and policy support for aviation biofuel. The implications of these findings for commercial aviation and the future development of global market for aviation biofuel market are discussed.     

An exploratory study into airport choice factors for European low-cost airlines

Low-cost carriers are an increasingly important part of the European aviation industry. Airport choice is a crucial factor in determining their success or failure. While research has been conducted into airport choice factors, their relative rankings have not previously been investigated. This paper addresses this through an exploratory survey of eight European low-cost airlines. The paper finds that demand for low-cost services is the most important choice factor, with aeronautical charges ranked fourth. Further analysis reveals different requirements depending upon airline characteristics. This implies that airport managers need to tailor their service offering to individual low-cost airlines rather than treating the sector uniformly.     

Access mode choice for relocated airports: the new Athens International Airport

To estimate the capacity requirements for all access related facilities of a new airport and to set pricing or operational policies it is necessary to forecast the share of each transport mode that airport passengers use. The development of these forecasts cannot be based on mere transfer of experience from other airports, particularly in the modern era of wide regulatory reforms, liberalization of the aviation market and increasing airport competition. First access modal split at the existing airport is determined via passenger classification and discrete choice modeling. Both are conducted via a passenger survey study specifically designed for this purpose. The resulting models are then employed to forecast access modal splits for the relocated airport by proper adjustment of the attribute values. The method is applied to the new Athens International Airport.     

Four shades of Open Skies: European Union and four main external partners

The Open Skies agreements are in the centre of the European Union’s external aviation policy. They form the basis of liberalisation of aviation between the EU and the rest of the world, opening up markets and promoting fair competition. The progress made since the original road map in 2005 depended both on the priorities of the European side and the individual strategy of each external partner. This paper discusses the status of the EU’s aviation relations with four important partners: USA, Russia, Morocco and Turkey.Aviation liberalisation is at a different stage of maturity in the four examples. The evolution of traffic over time can give an insight into the impact that gradual liberalisation had in each case: total traffic grows faster when restrictions are lifted, but new demand is not spread equally across airports on either side. The impact on concentration, measured with the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) at airport level, varies significantly between the various markets. Political, geographic, demographic and economic factors influence the airline network dynamics and lead to distinct patterns of expansion. Special emphasis is given to the analysis of the role of airline alliances, ownership limitations and specific obstacles such as the visa limitations and the Siberian overflight royalties.     

A systematic approach to assess the effectiveness of airport noise mitigation strategies

Regional airports are often located very close to the urban area they serve and the increasing traffic rate that many of them have experienced in the last years has produced several impacts on the communities living close to the airport area, mainly aviation noise. If not properly managed, noise impacts produced by airport operations can cut down significantly the development of airport air traffic with direct effects on the economic and territorial systems. Aeronautical noise has greatly reduced in the last decade, due to aircraft design technological improvements and more severe regulations. However, the noise reduction during a single event does not make the issue of the airport location – and then the whole noise impact – less significant. This paper proposes an assessment process to evaluate the effects of actions adopted to reduce airport noise impacts on populated areas. Both airport-related factors – such as number of take-off; day-evening-night distributions of movements; aircraft type; flying paths – and land-use characteristics have been considered and combined in a density index that synthesizes the impacts of airport noise on the territory. The assessment process has been tested on a real case, the airport of Bologna in Northern Italy. The predicted results, compared with available real data for the test case, are significant and encourage the use of the proposed assessment process as decision support system for the airport management.     

Offsite passenger service facilities: A viable option for airport access?

Offsite passenger service facilities transfer passengers from a common location to an airport and may provide additional services such as baggage handling and passenger check-in. Although they are conceptually promising, there is a lack of modern methods specifically tailored to forecast their demand. This paper reports on the development of two sequential models that forecast demand for an offsite facility. Models were calibrated based on data collected at six airports in California, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Virginia. The results showed that likely candidates for an offsite facility are airports that are not easily accessible, and departing air passengers with early morning flight departure times and high variability in ground travel times to the airport. A case study demonstrates the application of the models to Virginia’s Richmond International Airport.     

The impact of carbon emission fees on passenger demand and air fares: A game theoretic approach

The implementation of an environmental market-based measure on U.S. aviation industry is studied. Under this policy, each airline pays a carbon fee for the carbon dioxide emissions it generates. The impact on ticket prices and corresponding market shares is investigated via the joint estimation of an air travel demand model and an airlines' behavior model. In the demand model, aggregate air traffic data is used to determine the marginal effects of flight attributes that are specific to itinerary, airline and airport on market share. The airline's behavior model incorporates the carbon fee in the airline marginal cost. After the implementation of the carbon policy, the increased cost forces airlines to adjust ticket prices in order to maximize profits. The results obtained by the proposed model indicate a moderate price increase which strongly depends on the per tonne carbon price. Air travel demand falls from 2.4% to 21% depending on the carbon price level.     

Ratio-based design hour determination for airport passenger terminal facilities

To avoid both over-design and under-sizing of airport passenger terminal facilities such as security checkpoints, the infrastructure is designed for a specifically determined design load. As such, the design load is considered for a short period of time, usually an hour of operation, during which peak, though not necessarily maximum, demand occurs. For strategic planning applications, future design loads can be determined by either fictitious flight schedules or ratio-based models which forecast the relationship between design load and annual demand. This study presents two ratio-based methods which allow the direct determination of design hour loads (DHL) for passenger terminal facilities. The unsaturated DHL model considers the relationship between observed passenger flows in the terminal and aggregated annual demand data. The saturated DHL model includes several operational constraints which limit the actual DHL, such as limitations in the runway system or the fleet mix operating at an airport. Both models are applied to two real-world airports, for which the DHL of the security checkpoint facilities is estimated from large datasets covering multiple years. Results are significant at the 5 % level and suggest that the proposed ratio-based methods are appropriate for airport strategic planning applications.     

Airport–airline vertical relationships,their effects and regulatory policy implications

This paper examines the forms and effects of vertical relationships between airports and airlines with a focus on the North American and European aviation markets. We find that such vertical relationships enables those participating to achieve various benefits and may be formed as a competitive response to other competing airport–airline alliances. In some cases, vertical airport–airline relationships strengthen the hub status of major airports, leading to increased employment and service quality in local markets. On the other hand, preferential treatment of a particular airline by an airport may enhance that airline’s market power, allowing it to dominate the airport and charge hub premiums. The competition and welfare implications of airport–airline vertical alliances can be complicated and two-sided, subject to the influences of other factors such as the market structures of the airline and airport markets.