论当前形势下我国外贸发展的制度创新与机制转换

当前制度创新和机制转换已经成为制约我国对外贸易发展的重要决定因素,在加入WTO后,如何在完善社会主义市场经济体制的背景下,进一步改革外贸体制中的不合理部分,实现我国外贸高速、持续向前发展,已经成为一个突出的难点。本文基于新制度经济学的观点,在总结历次外贸体制变革的经验教训中,从制度创新和机制转换两方面给出了政策建议。     

农业产业化经营的制度经济理论认识

农业产业化经营是一种制度选择和制度创新,制度变迁有收益,也必然耗费一定成本。本文从制度经济学的角度分析了农业产业化经营的特征,制度变迁的选择和制度创新的意义。     

越南农村土地制度革新:历程、特点及启示

本文分析了越南农村土地制度革新的演变历程,归纳出越南农村土地制度革新的三个特点:制度变迁的渐进性及其法律匹配、制度安排的弹性特征与分类处理、产权权能的物权属性与清晰界定。并以越南改革经验为借鉴,提出了在中国新一轮的思想解放中农村土地制度创新的若干启示和建议。     

China's value-added tax reform, capital accumulation, and welfare implications

This paper analyzes the effects of China's upcoming value-added tax (VAT) reform of removing investment from the tax base on capital accumulation and the welfare of the rich and the poor. Three alternative methods to make up for the loss of tax revenue are considered. The VAT reform with consumption tax being endogenous increases capital accumulation and the utility of both the rich and the poor. The VAT reform with the labor income tax rate being endogenous increases capital accumulation; and it decreases the utility of the rich and increases the utility of the poor (increases the utility of both the rich and the poor) if the rich has a higher rate or the same rate of time preference (if the rich has a lower rate of time preference). The VAT reform, accompanied by a cut in transfers to the poor, has no effect on capital accumulation if the rich and the poor have the same rate of time preference; it decreases (increases) capital accumulation if the rich has a higher (lower) rate of time preference; and it increases the utility of the rich and decreases the utility of the poor.     

越日双边贸易发展的实证研究:1990～2010年

1973年越南与日本建交,两国高层互访频繁,政治互信日益加深,双方在各领域合作均取得了令人瞩目的成效。尤其自20世纪90年代以来,两国政府高度重视双边关系,积极推进经贸合作,基于两国经济和资源的互补优势,双边贸易合作实现了迅猛发展。2006年越日两国政府宣布建立战略合作伙伴关系,两国关系由此迈入新的历史阶段。2007年1月11日越南成功加入世贸,WTO为越日双边经贸合作发展提供了一个良好的制度平台,未来双边经贸合作具有广阔的发展前景。     

东盟五国服务贸易的开放度评析

近10年来,在全球性和区域性服务贸易自由化的推动下,东盟五国加快了服务贸易的对外开放。本文通过五国在GATS中承诺的开放水平和它们实际的开放度来比较五国的服务贸易开放程度。研究显示,到目前为止,各国之间和部门之间的开放水平仍存在较大差异。但从长远来看,五国的服务贸易都将会有更大的开放。     

Multinationals: Too Many or Too Few?— The Proximity–concentration Trade-off

The paper builds an analytically tractable model that illustrates the “proximity–concentration trade-off” involved in horizontal multinationals. For low trade costs, firms are single-plant firms, for intermediate costs, some are single-plant firms whereas others are multinationals, for large trade costs, firms are multinationals. Because of the modeling strategy, the model is suited for a welfare analysis of multinationals. It shows that too many firms choose to concentrate their production in only one location. Also, for some transport costs, a reduction in transport costs worsens welfare.

农村基础设施投资是拉动还是挤出了居民消费

公共投资对居民消费存在拉动和挤出两种效应。文章利用2000-2010年全国30个省份的数据计算出农村基础设施投资存量,采用动态面板模型对农村基础设施投资存量与农村居民消费之间的关系作了实证分析。结果表明：从全国范围来看,基础设施投资对居民消费具有\"挤出\"效应,中部地区也同样呈现出\"挤出\"效应,东部和西部地区效应不明显。从基础设施结构来看,电力、燃气、水利和环境基础设施,卫生、社会保障和社会福利、文化体育和娱乐业基础设施对居民的消费具有\"挤出\"效应;交通运输、仓储、邮政以及信息传递和软件业基础设施,教育设施、科技服务和地质勘探基础设施对农村居民消费影响不显著。就此,应加大对西部及落后地区的投入,中、东部地区适当控制投入;完善基础设施的投资结构,增加对电力、水利、交通、教育、科技等基础设施的投入;引入民间资本投资农村基础设施等。     

The impact of institutional reform from 1979 through 1987 on fertility in rural China

This empirical study brings together data on the local timing of the rural household responsibility system (HRS) reforms in China from 1979 through 1987 and assesses the association of the local reforms with individual parity-specific fertility changes as measured in the in-depth fertility survey. Fertility appears to have increased slightly in 1982 through 1984, but declined in 1985 through 1987, in the wake of these significant economic reforms. It is hypothesized that the reforms increased the private monetary and opportunity cost of childbearing and intensified market competition for the adoption of new production technologies that encouraged parents to educate their children better, while increasing the mobility of the rural labor force and thereby discouraging and delaying childbearing among rural Chinese.     

The U.S.–China trade war: Tariff data and general equilibrium analysis

The current trade war between the United States and China is unprecedented in modern history. This study introduces a database of tariff increases resulting from the trade war and quantifies the impacts using the canonical GTAPinGAMS model calibrated to the recently released GTAP version 10 accounts. We find that the remaining tariff increases as of March 2020 after the phase one trade deal decrease welfare in China by 1.7% and welfare in the United States by 0.2%. Impacts on sectoral revenue are reported for both countries. China's exports to and imports from the United States are reduced by 52.3% and 49.3%. The trade flow between the United States and China will be diverted to their major trade partners resulting in higher welfare in those countries, including many Asian countries. The estimated impacts are robust to using alternative trade elasticities and are amplified in the absence of the phase one tariff reductions.     

桂越边境贸易关系探析

本文首先重点分析了桂越边境贸易的现状及双方进出口产品的竞争力,并总结了双边贸易中所存在的问题;然后探寻了对其产生影响的具体因素;在此基础上,最后提出了相应的改进措施,以期促进桂越边境贸易的进一步发展。     

中国与越南国有企业改革比较

国有企业改革是经济转轨国家共同面临的重大课题,研究和比较中国与越南国有企业改革的历程具有现实意义。中国从1978年开始的国有企业改革从大的方面可以分为两个大的阶段:改造阶段和革新阶段。越南国有企业改革经历了市场化、集团化、股份化三个阶段,主要问题是股份制改造进展缓慢。两国的改革存在诸多共同点,同时在改革的整体规划、推进速度、策略等方面存在差异。总结和比较两国的改革历程,可以得到有益的启示:改革必须坚持以市场为取向;坚持"渐进式"的改革策略;正确处理国有企业改革与各项体制改革配套的关系;结合本国国情进行改革。     

中国农村合作医疗制度变迁、特点与改革方向

中国农村医疗保障制度,以合作医疗制度的发展为主线,经历了产生、发展、鼎盛、崩溃和复兴历程。研究中国农村医疗保障制度的变迁,具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。本文从上世纪30年代的自发的探索到本世纪的新型农村合作医疗制度的建立,回顾和比较了将近半个多世纪变迁历程,分析其变迁的原因,并在此基础上提出进一步改革的方向应该处理好"自愿"与"强制"、"本地化"和"流动性"以及"保大"与"保小"间的关系。     

Testing the Links between Institutional Integration and Trade Deepening: Clues from Europe

This paper investigates the interaction between institutional integration and trade deepening in the EU over the last 50 years. It uses Granger causality tests, a VECM and variance decompositions to further the understanding of this interaction. The evidence indicates two-way endogeneity. But the link from institution building to trade dominates. Yet, this link has weakened over time, possibly due to globalisation sidestepping institutions. Moreover, the sensitivity of institutional integration to trade deepening has risen, which suggests that economic forces have gained more strength in determining institutional steps.

新制度经济学视角下的户籍制度改革探讨

我国现行户籍制度的弊端主要表现为非公正性、制约经济发展和有损人口统计的职能。本文基于新制度经济学制度变迁的理论,分析户籍制度改革的政治和经济基础,提出了我国户籍制度改革的基本框架,主要为:户籍制度回归本位,建立相关福利制度的对接机制,坚持渐进式和激进式相结合的原则,采取老人老办法,新人新办法的思路以及坚持统筹城乡经济社会发展等。     

越南国内经济增长对中、越双边贸易发展的贡献度分析

1986年越南实施了"革新开放"的新政策,并确立了以"社会主义定向的市场经济"作为其改革目标,20多年来,越南国内经济实现并保持了快速增长。1991年中越两国关系实现正常化,双边贸易合作取得了令人瞩目的成就,为维系和发展两国全面战略合作伙伴关系奠定了坚实的物质基础。实证研究进一步表明:越南国内经济增长是拉动中越双边贸易快速发展的重要"引擎"。