The dynamics of household dissolution and change in socio-economic position: A survival model in a rural South Africa

This paper investigates household dissolution and changes in asset wealth (socio-economic position) in a rural South African community containing settled refugees. Survival analysis applied to a longitudinal dataset indicated that the covariates increasing the risk of forced household dissolution were a reduction in socio-economic position (asset wealth), adult deaths and the permanent outmigration of more than 40% of the household. Conversely, the risk of dissolution was reduced by bigger households, state grants and older household heads. Significant spatial clusters of former refugee villages also showed a higher risk of dissolution after 20?years of permanent residence. A discussion of the dynamics of dissolution showed how an outflow/inflow of household assets (socio-economic position) was precipitated by each of the selected covariates. The paper shows how an understanding of the dynamics of forced household dissolution, combined with the use of geo-spatial mapping, can inform inter-disciplinary policy in a rural community.     

Economic growth and income inequality in the Asia-Pacific region: A comparative study of China,Japan, South Korea,and the United States

This paper builds an inequality-growth-redistribution nexus, and applies the Engle–Granger two-step ECM approach to estimate the long-run and short-run relationships between inequality and growth for four economies: China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. Our estimation results support the S-shaped curve hypothesis relating GDP per capita to inequality with different starting points for the four economies. For the reverse relationship, we find a positive causal relationship for China, Japan, and the United States, indicating that increased income inequality spurred economic growth. In addition, we find mixed results on the effect of trade openness on inequality and growth. Trade openness reduced inequality in the United States and Japan, worsened it in China and had no significant effect in South Korea. In the inequality-GDP per capita relationship, exports provided an impetus to economic growth for Japan. As for redistribution, although fiscal redistributive measures reduced inequality in Japan, they played no major role in the other three countries. With regard to the inequality-GDP per capita relationship, all countries except for China show a negative effect of fiscal redistribution on GDP per capita.     

自由贸易试验区建设与地区产业结构转型升级——基于中国286个城市面板数据的实证分析

自由贸易试验区建设是我国进一步深化改革和扩大开放的重要举措,是地区产业结构转型升级的"政策红利"和"制度红利"。文章基于2004-2018年中国286个城市数据,探讨了自由贸易试验区的设立对地区产业结构转型升级的影响、异质性差异以及作用机制。研究结果表明：自由贸易试验区建设有效促进了地区产业结构转型升级。从分区域的结果来看,自由贸易试验区建设对东部城市产业结构转型升级的促进效应明显高于中部地区,对西部地区产业结构转型升级的效果不明显。文章进一步从资源配置和制度供给两个维度检验了自由贸易试验区建设的外部调节和内在作用机理,研究发现：自由贸易试验区建设有效调节了资本要素的作用路径,增强了资本要素对产业转型升级的促进作用,尚未实现对劳动力要素的有效正向调节。同时,自由贸易试验区建设主要通过制度供给效应促进地区产业结构转型升级,而东部地区制度供给效应显著高于中部地区。     

Trade Opening,Fiscal Reforms,Poverty, and Inequality: A CGE Analysis for Bangladesh

We assess the short‐ and long‐run impacts of tariff reform policies on Bangladeshi households' poverty and income distribution by developing an 86‐sector, four‐factor, and nine‐household‐group computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The main findings are that the complete removal of tariffs leads to a decrease in overall poverty with rich household groups in a relatively better position. In the short run poverty incidence increases for rural landless, urban illiterate, and low‐educated household groups whereas rural large farmer and urban medium household groups enjoy improvements in all poverty indicators. In terms of income distribution, trade liberalization enhances inequality slightly, but there is a tendency towards more equitable distribution in the long run. The choice of a fiscal compensatory mechanism with consumption tax is likely to play a negative role in terms of poverty and inequality in the short run; however, interestingly, the results are pro‐poor in the long run.     

国际寡头市场条件下贸易竞争与联盟的博弈研究综述

20世纪80年代以来，博弈理论和国际贸易理论的结合促进了对国际寡头市场条件下贸易竞争与联盟研究的发展。由于现实贸易环境的改变，研究重心可以概括为三个阶段的博弈模型：自由贸易条件下竞争模型，政策干预条件下的竞争模型和贸易联盟模型。本文在博弈理论发展背景的基础上系统综_述了这一交叉研究发展的动机和已解决的贸易问题，同时指出了当前贸易竞争与联盟研究中所存在的问题和发展前景。     

中国与日韩制造业贸易调整成本的经验研究——基于边际产业内贸易分析

本文基于边际产业内贸易分析，分别运用A、B和S指数测度法对1992-2003年间中国与日韩制造业贸易的调整成本进行了经验研究。研究结果表明，中国电气机械及器材制造、普通机械等以资本技术密集型产品为主的行业调整成本较大，而服装及纤维品制造、木材加工等以劳动密集型产品为主的行业调整成本较小。总体而言，这一时期中国与日本制造业贸易调整成本低于中国与韩国制造业贸易调整成本，但是中国与韩国制造业贸易调整成太在1998年詹旱掐千下隆曲而日太惜况却一与此相反．     

跨国次区域经济合作区与自由贸易区的分析——以GMS和CAFTA为例

作为区域经济一体化的一种新形式,跨国次区域经济合作区与传统的区域经济一体化组织有诸多不同。文章通过对跨国次区域经济合作区与典型传统的区域经济一体化组织—自由贸易区的分析比较,认为跨国次区域经济合作会在很大程度上促进相应的区域经济一体化合作的新发展。     

What happens to Japan if China catches a cold?: A causal analysis of Chinese growth and Japanese growth

In this paper, we conduct an empirical study to investigate the directionality of the dependence between the Chinese economy and the Japanese economy. Taking a probabilistic causal approach, we infer the causal dependence among the Japanese economy and the Chinese economy based on observed data. We find evidence that the Chinese growth has both contemporaneous and temporal causal effects on Japanese growth, though the effect is very small. We did not find any evidence that the Japanese growth might have temporal or contemporaneous causal effect on Chinese growth.