How do banks respond to shocks? A dynamic model of deposit-taking institutions

This paper proposes a dynamic model of the optimal choices of a bank that benefits from market power and takes into account the impact of the deposit generation process. Interbank lending/borrowing emerges as a buffer that assists the bank in smoothing intertemporal adjustments in interdependent loan and deposit choices. The bank smooths the impact of interest-rates shocks on its customers to minimize the adjustments over time of the stocks of deposits and loans. It does not, however, provide insurance against negative shocks of real origin that increase its expected default costs. The predictions of the model help to shed light on the available empirical evidence and to analyze some recent developments of the banking industry.     

How and why do small firms manage interest rate risk?

Although small firms are particularly sensitive to interest rates and other shocks, empirical work on corporate risk management has focused instead on large public companies. This paper studies fixed-rate and adjustable-rate loans to see how small firms manage their exposure to interest rate risk. Credit-constrained firms are found to match significantly more often with fixed-rate loans, consistent with prior research that shows the supply of credit shrinks during periods of rising interest rates. Banks originate a higher share of adjustable-rate loans than other lenders, ameliorating maturity mismatch and exposure to the lending channel of monetary policy. Time-series patterns in the fixed-rate share are consistent with recent evidence on debt market timing.     

Can banks individually create money out of nothing? — The theories and the empirical evidence

This paper presents the first empirical evidence in the history of banking on the question of whether banks can create money out of nothing. The banking crisis has revived interest in this issue, but it had remained unsettled. Three hypotheses are recognised in the literature. According to the financial intermediation theory of banking, banks are merely intermediaries like other non-bank financial institutions, collecting deposits that are then lent out. According to the fractional reserve theory of banking, individual banks are mere financial intermediaries that cannot create money, but collectively they end up creating money through systemic interaction. A third theory maintains that each individual bank has the power to create money ‘out of nothing’ and does so when it extends credit (the credit creation theory of banking). The question which of the theories is correct has far-reaching implications for research and policy. Surprisingly, despite the longstanding controversy, until now no empirical study has tested the theories. This is the contribution of the present paper. An empirical test is conducted, whereby money is borrowed from a cooperating bank, while its internal records are being monitored, to establish whether in the process of making the loan available to the borrower, the bank transfers these funds from other accounts within or outside the bank, or whether they are newly created. This study establishes for the first time empirically that banks individually create money out of nothing. The money supply is created as ‘fairy dust’ produced by the banks individually, \"out of thin air\".     

How do the Renminbi and other East Asian currencies co-move?

This paper investigates the degree and the nature of exchange rate co-movements between the Renminbi and a set of seven East Asian currencies by estimating Markov switching models with regime-dependent correlations and time-varying transition probabilities. These models have several advantages. First, exchange rate co-movements can vary across different depreciation and appreciation regimes. Second, the Renminbi can act as a transition variable that provides information regarding how the exchange rates evolve over time. After controlling for global effects and exchange market pressures, the results yield robust evidence of the Renminbi’s rising role in East Asia as a significant factor in currency fluctuations. A key result is that regional currencies tend to overreact when the Renminbi depreciates and underreact when it appreciates, suggesting that East Asian economies are not willing to allow their currency to substantially appreciate against the Chinese currency.     

How do partial acquisitions affect the wealth of acquiring firms? The case of Japanese firms

This study examines how and why partial acquisitions affect the wealth of acquiring firms in Japan. Few studies have focused on acquiring firms in partial acquisitions, whereas many studies have investigated target firms. The empirical results show that the shareholder wealth of acquiring firms, which can increase through partial acquisitions, is much lower than that of target firms. In addition, acquiring firms and their targets differ in how they enhance their wealth from partial acquisitions—acquiring firms can enhance their wealth by exploiting the wealth of target firms, while target firms can enhance their wealth by obtaining support from acquiring firms.     

How important are small banks to small business lending?: New evidence from a survey of small firms

Typically, small banks lend a larger proportion of their assets to small businesses than do large banks. The recent wave of bank mergers has thinned the ranks of small banks, raising the concern that small firms may find it difficult to access bank credit. However, bank consolidation will reduce small business credit only if small banks enjoy an advantage in lending to small businesses. We test the existence of a small bank cost advantage in small business lending by conducting the following simple test: If such advantages exist, then we should observe small businesses in areas with few small banks to have less bank credit. Using data on small business borrowers from the 1993 National Survey of Small Business Finance, we find that the probability of a small firm having a line of credit from a bank does not decrease in the long run when there are fewer small banks in the area, although short-run disruptions may occur. Nor do we find that firms in areas with few small banks are any more likely to repay trade credit late, suggesting that such firms are no more credit constrained than firms in areas with many small banks.     

How do global banks scramble for liquidity? Evidence from the asset-backed commercial paper freeze of 2007

We investigate how banks scrambled for liquidity following the asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) market freeze of August 2007 and its implications for corporate borrowing. Commercial banks in the United States raised dollar deposits and took advances from Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs), while foreign banks had limited access to such alternative dollar funding. Relative to before the ABCP freeze and relative to their non-dollar lending, foreign banks with ABCP exposure charged higher interest rates to corporations for dollar-denominated syndicated loans. The results point to a funding risk manifesting as currency shortages for banks engaged in maturity transformation in foreign countries.     

Where do firms incorporate? Deregulation and the cost of entry

We study how deregulation of corporate law affects the decision of entrepreneurs of where to incorporate. Recent rulings by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) have enabled entrepreneurs to select their country of incorporation independently of their real seat. We analyze foreign incorporations in the U.K., where incorporations of limited liability companies can be arranged at low cost. Using data for over 2 million companies from around the world incorporating in the U.K., we find a large increase in cross-country incorporations from E.U. Member States following the ECJ rulings. In line with regulatory cost theories, incorporations are primarily driven by minimum capital requirements and setup costs in home countries. We record widespread use of special incorporation agents to facilitate legal mobility across countries.     

How do European banks portray the effect of policy interest rates and prudential behavior on profitability?

European policy interest rates have been low and trending downwards for almost a decade now and expectations do not seem to change. Hence, in such an environment, this paper investigates whether and how banks’ prudential behavior has influenced profitability across the European banking sector from 1999 to 2015. Using a dynamic panel model, we clearly find that banks’ financial resilience, proxied by the asymmetric Z-score and two financial ratios, affects profits: more cautious banks record higher profits. This result is confirmed by the two overall measures of profitability, namely the Return on Average Assets and Equity, but not for the Net Interest Margins. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that monetary policy's main instrument adversely affects bank income. Nevertheless, when policy interest rates are particularly low, the effect on Net Interest Margin is still positive, while the effect on the overall profitability becomes negative. These results induce that European banks succeed in increasing their profitability despite a compression of their net interest income.     

How do banks adjust to changing input prices? A dynamic analysis of U.S. commercial banks before and after the crisis

The 2000–2013 period was characterized by substantial regulatory, monetary and technological change, especially after the onset of the global financial crisis. This study assesses the total impact of these policy shifts and technological changes on U.S. commercial banks’ short-run and long-run substitution elasticities. An endogenous-break test divides the sample into a pre-crisis period and a (post-) crisis period. During the former period, banks’ inputs tend to be inelastic substitutes. After the onset of the crisis, particularly the long-run substitutability of most input factors decreases to even lower levels due to changes in both cost technology and economic conditions. At the same time, banks’ response to input price changes becomes more sluggish. Hence, especially after the onset of the crisis, banks have little flexibility regarding input factor usage and are thus sensitive to input price changes from a cost perspective.     

How do risk attitudes of clearing firms matter for managing default exposure in futures markets?

This article proposes a theoretical framework that is built upon extreme value theory to study three instruments (i.e. margin, capital requirement and price limits) for managing default risk in futures markets. Specifically, the exceedances over a price threshold are modeled using a generalized Pareto distribution, and the models are static (one-period). We incorporate the risk attitudes of clearing firms into the framework to investigate the efficacy of these instruments under several risk measures, including value-at-risk measures, expected-shortfall measures and spectral risk measures. An empirical study on the VIX futures (or VX) data shows that the effectiveness of these market instruments rests not only on clearing firms' risk attitudes, but also on the tail fatness of the futures price distribution. Moreover, the shift in the risk attitudes of clearing firms may cause interactions among these instruments, which casts new light on the economic rationale of price limits.     

How do firms react to the prohibition of long-lived asset impairment reversals? Evidence from China

New Chinese Accounting Standards (CAS) released on February 15, 2006, prohibit the reversal of long-lived asset impairments, effective for reporting periods beginning January 1, 2007 and later. This development in the Chinese market provides a unique experimental setting to directly investigate how firms react to the ban on previously-allowed long-lived asset impairment reversals, especially firms that use impairment charges as “cookie jar reserves.” By contrasting write-off recognition and reversal across the pre- and post- new CAS announcement regimes, we show that firms listed on Chinese stock exchanges recognized less impairment charges during the “transition” period—after announcement of the new standard and before the effective date—than in pre-announcement periods. Meanwhile, firms with substantial previous write-downs reversed more impairment charges to achieve their earnings targets in the transition period. The new CAS also constraints “big bath” reporting by loss firms. As US GAAP prohibits these reversals and IFRS allows them, our empirical evidence depicts firms’ possible reactions in other regimes contemplating doing away with such reversals.     

How do firms finance their investments?: The relative importance of equity issuance and debt contracting costs

This paper examines the financing decisions of firms in response to changes in investments and profits. We find that information frictions play important roles in firms' financing decisions. However, we find no evidence that asymmetric information about the value of a firm's assets causes equity to be used only as a last resort. Indeed equity is the predominant source of finance in situations, such as profit shortfalls, investment in intangible assets, and internally generated growth opportunities, where informational asymmetries and agency costs are likely to be high. We also find that firms respond asymmetrically to positive and negative profit shocks. In financing fixed assets, high asymmetric information firms use more short-term debt and less long-term debt, whereas firms with high potential agency problems use significantly more equity and less long-term debt and cash.     

How do the content,format, and tone of Twitter-based corporate disclosure vary depending on earnings performance?

Using 86,891 tweets, from the official corporate Twitter accounts of 715 unique firms, this study examines whether and how managers strategically attract and distract investors’ attention from corporate news through Twitter. We find that firms with good earnings news use Twitter to post more earnings-related information directly, whereas firms with bad earnings news post more non-earnings-related information on Twitter. We further find that depending on earnings performance firms strategically choose the format of tweets (qualitative or quantitative) and the tone of earnings tweets (positive or negative) to attract investors’ attention to good news or distract investors’ attention from bad news. Our results are robust to difference-in-differences (DID), alternative sample periods, and different variable specifications. Our findings provide empirical evidence for investors and regulators regarding current practices in corporate information on Twitter.     

How do bank competition,regulation, and institutions shape the real effect of banking crises? International evidence

This paper studies the influence of bank competition on the real effect of 36 systemic banking crises in 30 countries over the 1980–2000 period and how this influence varies across countries depending on bank regulation and institutions. We find that bank market power is not on average useful for mitigating the negative real effect of a systemic banking crisis. Market power promotes higher growth during normal times in industries that are more dependent on external finance but induces a bigger reduction in growth during systemic banking crises. We also find a country-specific effect depending on bank regulation and institutions. Stringent capital requirements and poor protection of creditor rights increase the benefits of bank market power for mitigating the negative real effect of a systemic banking crisis because bank market power has a positive effect on economic growth during both crisis and non-crisis periods in these environments.     

How does the COVID-19 pandemic shape the relationship between Twitter sentiment and stock liquidity of US firms?

Using a new investor sentiment metric derived from Twitter, this paper examines how the pandemic's death rate influences the impact of investor sentiment on stock liquidity. Recent literature remains inconclusive regarding the effect of COVID-19 information and investor sentiment on financial markets. Using panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) for daily data on 338 listed firms in the S&P500 from January 2, 2020, to May 26, 2021, the findings reveal that the impact of Twitter sentiment on stock liquidity is nonlinear and changes over time and across firms in the function of the pandemic's death rate in the US. The results exhibit a threshold level of 4.32%, above which investor sentiment boosts stock liquidity. The speed of the transition from low to high pandemic death rate regime occurred abruptly rather than smoothly. This translates to severe changes in investor perception and demonstrates that investors are rapidly updating their beliefs during the COVID-19 outbreak.     

Why do firms issue private equity repeatedly? On the motives and information content of multiple PIPE offerings

This study examines why private equity issues tend to be a repeated source of financing for public firms. We test the recent operational needs theory of public equity issuance within the context of repeated private equity issues. We find that repeated PIPE issuers burn through cash quickly and do not reach the standards of information transparency or profitability needed for a successful public equity offering. This has implications for investor composition and the market response to a PIPE. Initial PIPE offerings are characterized by substantial diversity in investor type. In successive transactions firms increasingly rely upon hedge funds, who extract greater price discounts and more often require cash flow rights as opposed to control rights. As firms select a path of repeated PIPEs to raise funds, successive issues become uninformative to the market. We conclude that, for small public firms, the same motive underlies public equity offerings and repeated private equity offerings—an acute need for cash.     

How is the IFRS for SME accepted in the European context? An analysis of the homogeneity among European countries,users and preparers in the European commission questionnaire

In this paper we analyze the answers to the “Questionnaire on the public consultation of the IFRS for SMEs”, promoted by the European Commission. Our aim is to evaluate the homogeneity among respondents, according to the different perspectives of analysis between both users, preparers and also in European Countries. Results show a substantial diversity among respondents. In particular, preparers demonstrate a strong opposition to the IFRS for SMEs, while users are more favorable. Concerning Country classification, German-speaking Countries and Latin Countries show much less appreciation for that standard with respect to Anglo − Nordic Countries. Relevant consequences for European public policy issues and for accounting studies on differential reporting arise from this result, concerning respectively the role of European accounting system and the acceptance of “user primacy” principle.     

How do incentives influence local public support for the siting of shale gas projects in China?

Abstract

In 2016, China became the third largest producer of shale gas in the world. The Chinese central government has been supporting shale gas development since 2011. There are hopes that shale gas development, along with major efforts in renewable energy systems, can bring a fundamental change in the nation’s current coal-dependent energy system. Numerous challenges have slowed implementation including resistance to development of the industry by local residents living near shale gas sites. A significant body of research has examined the effectiveness of incentives in changing risk perceptions and attitudes toward the siting of industrial projects in the Western context. The present research identifies whether governmental incentives increase the extent of local support for shale gas projects in the Chinese context. Specifically, this paper strives to study two types of incentives: direct compensation to households bearing the potential negative impacts of shale gas projects and, household compensation accompanied by allocation of a portion of the shale tax revenues to local communities where the development occurs. An online survey with an embedded experiment was designed and conducted in August 2016 in five Chinese provinces where there are current or future shale gas projects. The experiment shows that household compensation alone or in combination with community reinvestment significantly increases local support of shale gas projects. Further, we found that the respondents most likely to be supportive after the experimental treatments are those who are young, more highly educated, have higher income, and perceive themselves as living close to a project. This research sheds light on how incentives might help contribute to resolution of siting controversies or prevent the onset of such controversies.     

Have the GIPSI settled down? Breaks and multivariate stochastic volatility models for,and not against,the European financial integration

We investigate the integration of the European peripheral financial markets with Germany, France, and the UK using a combination of tests for structural breaks and return correlations derived from several multivariate stochastic volatility models. Our findings suggest that financial integration intensified in anticipation of the Euro, further strengthened by the EMU inception, and amplified in response to the 2007/2008 financial crisis. Hence, no evidence is found of decoupling of the equity markets in more troubled European countries from the core. Interestingly, the UK, despite staying outside the EMU, is not worse integrated with the GIPSI than Germany or France.