What has determined the rapid post-war growth of intra-EU trade?

Based on the gravity model by Baier and Bergstrand (2001), we use a static and dynamic panel approach to estimate the determinants of the growth of intra-EU trade from 1960 to 2000. The results suggest that income growth was the major force, accounting for approximately two-thirds of total growth. Trade liberalization still had a sizeable effect, while other factors had only a little impact (income convergence, real effective exchange rate changes) or played no role (trade costs). Our estimation results for intra-EU trade, using a variety of extensions, underline the robustness of the Baier-Bergstrand cross-section findings for world trade. JEL no. C23, F12, F14, F15     

Does foreign direct investment cause long run economic growth? Evidence from the Latin American and the Caribbean countries

The empirical evidence about the temporal precedence between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in open developing economies is mixed. In this research effort, we explored the FDI-growth nexus for 16 developing countries of Latin American and the Caribbean countries during the last three decades, a period in which many of these countries introduced various economic and financial reforms. As a departure from many previous studies, the current analysis uses the Granger noncausality test procedure recently developed by Toda and Yamamoto (J Econ 66:225–250, 1995), and Dolado and Lutkepohl (Econ Rev 15:369–386, 1996)–TYDL. Our results suggest that the null hypothesis that ‘FDI does not Granger cause economic growth’ is rejected for all countries except Dominican Republic, Trinidad and Tobago, and Jamaica. There is also evidence of unidirectional causality from growth to FDI for all countries except Bolivia, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Jamaica. We found bidirectional causality for Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela.     

Neutrality and free trade: Sweden and trade liberalisation, 1948–1958

Abstract

This article discusses the Swedish attitude to European economic cooperation, an attitude that has been described as reluctant. The traditional explanation for this has been Sweden's neutrality. This explanation has been challenged by researchers, who have claimed that a nationally self-sufficient social democracy was responsible for the reluctance towards Europe. In this article, neutrality is still seen as the main explanatory factor. Swedish strategies for dealing with European integration linked the concepts of neutrality and global free trade. Nordic cooperation was also seen as a strategy to meet demands for European integration. Swedish activities within the European organisations were limited by neutrality concerns. Within these limits Sweden worked for economic policy solutions, which might be called social democratic.     

Does the internet generate economic growth,international trade,or both?

Recent cross country panel data studies find a positive impact of internet use on economic growth and a positive impact of internet use on trade. The present study challenges the first finding by showing that internet use does not explain economic growth directly in a fully specified growth model. In particular openness to international trade variables seem to be highly correlated with internet use and the findings in the literature that internet use causes trade is confirmed here suggesting that internet use impacts trade and that trade impacts economic growth. A simultaneous equations model confirms the positive and significant role of internet use to openness and the importance of openness to economic growth. Internet use shows to be more impacting trade in non-high income countries than in high income countries whereas the impact of trade on economic growth is the same for both income groups.     

On trade creation and regional trade agreements: does depth matter?

Regional trade agreements (RTAs) are usually classified according to their form into four broad categories: preferential arrangements, free trade agreements, customs unions and common markets. This paper investigates whether the form/depth of RTAs matters concerning their effect on trade. I use a proper specification of the gravity model with panel data on the 1960–2000 period, which specifically control for self-selection into agreements. Results show that creating any kind of RTAs providing trade preferences to their member countries significantly increases bilateral trade. Nevertheless, their average treatment effect on bilateral trade does not significantly differ according to the depth of agreements.

The English coastal coal trade, 1691-1910: how rapid was productivity growth?1

As to coal, the normal price of its shipment is unfortunately lost among the general expenses of coal trading … ² 2 Davis, English shipping industry, p. 392.
     

Intra-industry trade by types: What can we learn from Portuguese data?

We provide evidence on intra-industry trade (IIT) in the Portuguese case from 1994 onwards by disentangling vertical from horizontal IIT with two different indexes—the Grubel-Lloyd and the so-called CEPII index- and analyse the determinants of both IIT types. Distinct explanatory factors are identified for each IIT type and we confirm the comparative advantage explanation in the vertical case. The regression results are robust to different estimation methods and to alternative IIT indexes. Nonetheless, sensitivity of the IIT levels to the arbitrary criterion of the CEPII measurement points out to the Grubel-Lloyd index as a preferable method. JEL no. F12, F14     

Disasters and trade: did Hurricane Katrina affect US imports?

Hurricane Katrina (2005) was the most devastating natural disaster in US history since San Francisco in 1906. A budding literature on disasters and trade suggests that while the impact of natural disasters on small and/or developing countries is significant, the effects on developed countries is not significant. This paper adds to the literature by focusing on a single event for a developed country, the US. In so doing, the aggregation problems of panel studies of many disasters over many countries is avoided. The results suggest that while terrible, Katrina’s effect on US imports was not statistically significant. Estimates of the long-run cointegrating relationship of import demand detected neither the presence of extraordinarily more nor less imports during the period studied (1983:1 to 2008:2). Small, short-run decreases, then increases, can be attributed to the direct effect of a small decline in overall economic activity alone. Recent estimates for income and price elasticities are also obtained and the results compared to other recent shocks, namely, the mild recession of 1990–1991 and the recession and trade collapse in 2008.     

Corruption,costs, and family: Chinese capital flight, 1984–2014

Since 1984, the foreign debt of the Peoples' Republic of China has increased at a greater rate than would be explained by changes in the country's current account, foreign direct investment and reserve holdings. This pattern is consistent with large-scale outflow of financial capital, commonly referred to as capital flight. Since 2005, capital flight has accelerated reaching $425 billion (plus or minus $60 billion) in 2014 alone. This study provides three estimates for capital flight from China for the period 1984 through 2014 using both Cuddington's balance of payments and more inclusive residual measures. These measures are adjusted to reflect the legitimate assets of the Chinese banking industry, mis-invoicing of China's trade with its major trading partners (especially Hong Kong), exchange rate changes, and the failure of official debt data to capture certain bank transactions. Based on these estimates, it is concluded that capital controls have little long-term effect on the volume of capital flight, Hong Kong is increasingly a pipeline for capital flight from the mainland, and that ‘traditional’ explanations do not apply to China's capital flight over the last decade. Finally, corruption, transaction costs, and facilitating migration are considered as possible explanations of the recent acceleration of Chinese capital flight.     

U.S.–Japan and U.S.–China trade conflict: Export growth,reciprocity, and the international trading system

First Japan and more recently China have pursued export-oriented growth strategies. While other Asian countries have done likewise, Japan and China are of particular interest because their economies are so large and the size of the associated bilateral trade imbalances with the United States so conspicuous. In this paper we focus on U.S. efforts to restore the reciprocal GATT/WTO market-access bargain in the face of such large imbalances and the significant spillovers to the international trading system. The paper highlights similarities and differences in the two cases. We describe U.S. attempts to reduce the bilateral imbalances through targeted trade policies intended to slow growth of U.S. imports from these countries or increase growth of U.S. exports to them. We then examine how these trade policy responses, as well as U.S. efforts to address what were perceived as underlying causes of the imbalances, influenced the evolution of the international trading system. Finally, we compare the macroeconomic conditions associated with the bilateral trade imbalances and their implications for the conclusions of the two episodes.     

Structural reform,intra-regional trade,and medium-term growth prospects of East Asia and the Pacific—Perspectives from a new multi-region model

This paper analyses the potential benefits from reforms aimed at promoting domestic demand in the region, as well as the effects of slower growth in the US and the G3 (US, euro area, and Japan) on the members of the Executives’ Meeting of East Asian-Pacific Central Bank (EMEAP). The analysis is based on simulation scenarios using an expanded version of the IMF Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal (GIMF) model which is particularly useful for conducting medium-term policy analysis, as it incorporates rich layers of intra-regional trade, production, and demand allowing the transmission mechanism of structural reforms and external shocks to be fully articulated. The simulation results show that reforms to rebalance the pattern of demand in regional economies (such as Mainland China) more towards domestic demand could entail non-negligible benefits for the EMEAP. These benefits could be even larger for those economies that more flexibly adjust to the shift in China's trade pattern. The simulation results also demonstrate that structural reforms in EMEAP economies will allow them to reduce vulnerabilities to economic downturns in major economies.     

Rural–urban income disparity: impact of growth,allocative efficiency,and local growth welfare

Historical data of economic development suggest a Kuznets–Williamson type of relationship between economic growth and income disparity. Using China's provincial data, we first try to determine to what extent such a relationship is valid in the urban–rural disparity context. Next, we identify some factors other than economic growth that might have affected urban–rural disparity. In particular, we calculate and compare the inter-sector gross allocation effect (GAE) at the provincial level to discern the impact of labor mobility and allocative efficiency on urban–rural disparity. We also try to evaluate the contribution of local governance to urban–rural disparity by looking into regional differences in effectiveness of economic growth to raise local standard of living. Policy implications of the findings are discussed in the light of China's institutional reforms and development strategies.     

Inequities in under-five child nutritional status in South Africa: What progress has been made?

Despite the emphasis given to poverty reduction in policy statements and a substantial increase in social spending, money-metric poverty has shown little improvement since South Africa's transition to democracy in 1994. Alternative approaches to measuring well-being and inequality may show a more positive trend. This article uses the 2008 National Income Dynamics Study to assess the magnitude of inequalities in under-five child malnutrition ascribable to economic status. The article compares these results with those of Zere and McIntyre, who analysed similar data collected in 1993. In both cases, household income, proxied by per-capita household expenditure, was used as the indicator of socio-economic status. Children's heights and weights have increased since 1993 and being stunted or underweight has become less common. Furthermore, pro-rich inequalities in stunting and being underweight have significantly declined since the end of apartheid. This suggests that pro-poor improvements in child welfare have taken place. Policies that may have contributed to this include the Child Support Grant, introduced in 1998, and improvements in healthcare and the education of women.     

Musket War and Musket trade: The New South Wales to New Zealand firearms trade, 1829–1840

The intertribal Musket wars that spread throughout Māori society in the 1820s and 1830s have received much attention from historians. This is also true of the history of trade between New South Wales and New Zealand occurring at the same time. However, at present, the link between these two phenomena remains poorly established. This article draws on the primary material available about the trans-Tasman arms trade from a relatively untapped source, Sydney newspapers, revealing the surprising extent of this commerce and the fact that firearms imports peaked in the early 1830s. This information necessarily requires revision of our understanding of the Musket wars themselves.     

The limiting factor: energy,growth, and divergence, 1820–1913

On the basis of a new series on the consumption of traditional and modern sources of energy between 1820 and 1913, this article addresses the start of modern growth and the great divergence on the world scale. Since the beginning of the nineteenth century, the greater availability of modern energy sources expanded working capacity well beyond the potential of previous agricultural civilizations. Growth of energy consumption rose primarily in western Europe, northern America, and Oceania. As a result, labour productivity rose, leading to an increase in real wages, which was an incentive to replace labour with mechanical engines. The higher energy consumption in these three macro-areas led to global inequality in productive capacity and technology which peaked on the eve of the First World War.     

Can trade liberalisation in South Africa reduce poverty and inequality while boosting economic growth? Macro–micro reflections

South Africa is trapped in a cycle of modest growth, unacceptable poverty levels and record unemployment. This has led to renewed interest on the relationship between macro (growth) and micro (poverty and distribution) issues. This paper uses a macro–micro tool that couples a computable general equilibrium model with microsimulation models to examine the impact of further unilateral trade policy reforms on growth, poverty and welfare. Trade liberalisation alone has very minimal short-run macroeconomic consequences while its long-term impacts are positive and magnified by technical factor productivity (TFP) effects. Trade liberalisation has no appreciable impact on poverty in the short run even if we allow for trade-induced TFP increases. In the long run, however, poverty reduces even in the case when we do not allow for TFP increases. Trade liberalisation policy has been found to be progressive despite the low level of tariff protection remaining in South Africa.     

What explains the intention to bring mobile phones for recycling? A study on university students in China and Germany

The analysis investigates the determinants of the intention to bring mobile phones for recycling. The paper is based on data regarding the determinants of bringing mobile phones for recycling collected from university students in Autumn 2016 (N = 1013) in both the Chinese and German academia. Using structural equation modeling, we examine the direct and indirect effects of social norms, knowledge about the environmental benefits of recycling and a pro-environmental attitude on the intention to recycle mobile phones. We find confirmation that attitude, social norms, and knowledge contribute positively and significantly to the intention to bring phones for recycling. As for three mediating effects tested, attitude mediates the relationship between knowledge and intention, as well as between social norms and intention. Knowledge as a mediator between social norms and attitude does not have a highly significant effect. Looking at the results of the Chinese and German sub-samples, we find that social norms have no direct effect on intention for the German sub-sample, but an indirect one through attitude. Knowledge has no significant effect for the German sub-sample. Results for the Chinese sub-sample indicate an indirect effect of social norms on attitude via knowledge, while knowledge itself has an indirect effect on intention through attitude.     

What explains Chinese private entrepreneurs' charitable behaviors?—A story of dynamic reciprocal relationship between firms and the government

This paper studies Chinese private entrepreneurs' charitable behaviors by exploring the dynamic reciprocal relationship between private firms and local governments. By using three waves of a nationwide survey of private firms in 2002, 2004 and 2006 from China, we provide robust evidence that Chinese private entrepreneurs with access to preferential loans from state-owned banks when their businesses first started are more likely to participate in donation and anti-poverty programs organized by the government, and the effects of such loans are more pronounced for small firms and firms in regulated industries. Furthermore, we find that this reciprocal relationship between local governments and private entrepreneurs is a personal relationship rather than an institutional relationship, which declines in importance in areas with better legal institutions and in regions with change of local leadership. Finally, there is evidence that Chinese private entrepreneurs' charitable behaviors are also motivated by political returns and other individual characteristics.     

The impact of foreign direct investment and trade on economic growth Taking China, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines ＆ Thailand for example

In this study the authors make efforts to survey the impact of foreign direct investment and trade on the economic growth of five East Asian countries, China, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. Using an augmented production function （APF） growth model, the authors apply panel data Method and data span is from1980 to 2006. The required data are extracted from World Development Indicator 2008. The result shows that a co-integration relationship between growth and its determinants in the APF model is supported. Firstly, the study shows that with the increasing the inflow of foreign direct investment, positive impact on growth in Thailand, Korea and China is proved. However, this impact is negative in Philippine and Malaysia. Also the impact of trade on economic growth has the same result with FDI impact in sign. Further, the impact of labor force on growth is not significant in these countries and the effect of gross fixed capital on growth is positive and has a very high impact on selected countries.