Driving demand: What can gasoline refueling patterns tell us about planning an alternative fuel network?

Knowing which variables predict gasoline demand can help inform which are useful in determining future demand at an alternative fuel station such as those for bio-fuels, natural gas, hydrogen, or fast-charge electricity. This study explores the spatial distribution of demand by comparing two main classes of variables: those without a displacement component such as population in a census block group, and those that imply a vector or directionality such as vehicle kilometers traveled. The spatial distribution of these variables is compared to the spatial distribution of demand for gasoline using regression. Many models examining the transition from gasoline to an alternative fuel assume a demand pattern for fuel a priori in order to estimate potential demand at a future alternative fuel station. This paper studies not the models themselves but the variables used to predict demand. The results indicate that vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) is the best variable to pinpoint where demand for fuel will occur. However, travel to the central business district of the metropolitan area does not appear to translate into demand for fuel in proportion to the VKT. While gasoline demand does appear to vary with population as well, the location of demand is much less specific than that predicted by VKT. The results also suggest that the route between home and the nearest freeway entrance may help predict a large portion of refueling and merits further investigation. This possible tendency can be used to create a new variable called “population-traffic” which appears to describe the spatial distribution of demand well. The good performance of this independent variable in regressions suggests that stations sited along the freeway may serve customers needs and provide the necessary concentration of demand for initial alternative fuel stations. A practical application of this work would be to help define refueling demand patterns in a rollout of alternative fueled vehicles in a neighborhood or town.     

Making plans or “just thinking about the trip”? Understanding people’s travel planning in practice

ICT solutions have been proposed as a means for changing environmentally unfavourable traffic behaviour by providing better, real-time and more accessible travel information. However, prevailing models of travel choice and travel behaviour tend to overemphasise the impact and importance of information and the individualistic perspective. The issue of choice and travel planning in everyday life situations, and how information is used and acted on in these processes, was examined in a qualitative study in Stockholm, Sweden. Practice Theory was used as the theoretical framework for the study. Interviews were supplemented with an explorative diary and photo assignment to bring unreflected choices and actions of planning travel to the conscious level.The results showed that travel planning involves the immediate situation where planning and decisions are made, but also aspirations, cognitive/time/material limitations, social norms and social relations that extend widely in time and space. Definitions of travel planning and travel information based on the situated practices of planning are suggested. In the muddle of everyday life, travel planning takes place in the brief moments where circumstances at different levels – time, place, the social realm - interact and are considered or directly acted upon. In the development of new ICT-based travel information services, the role of technology in changing normal practices should be considered.     

Strategic travel planning toward future emission targets—A comparative analysis of 20 Swedish municipalities applying the CERO model

Organizations displaying best practices for attaining proactive sustainability targets at local level are of major importance as role models in the transition toward a sustainable transport system. This study summarizes results and conclusions from 20 municipalities in Sweden that have implemented the so called CERO analysis in order to adapt to future emission targets for travel. The overall aim of the study is to identify factors explaining why some municipalities are more successful than others in a benchmarking comparison.

The results indicate that commuting by car is by far the most dominant source of emissions, constituting on average 76% of total annual travel emissions (including both commuting and business travel). In order to reduce these emissions, travel planning programs within organizations must address both commuting conditions and business travel conditions to reduce car dependence for work travel, e.g., employees using private cars for business trips most likely also use their own cars for commuting. To identify potential success factors as regards emissions-efficient travel, three comparative statistical analyses were conducted: grouping municipalities with low emissions in relation to the total average; analysis of car commuters' willingness to change travel mode; and before-and-after analyses of municipalities implementing specific action plans. The results revealed that municipalities conducting follow-up studies 2 years after implementing travel planning programs all lowered their total CO₂ emissions, by on average 10% during a 2-year period. Overall, these municipalities achieved redistribution to alternative travel modes but also reduced total travel mileage.     

Consequences of logistics sprawl: Order or chaos? - the case of a parcel service company in Paris metropolitan area

Logistics sprawl is the phenomenon driving warehouses and freight terminals further and further away from city centers, for reasons that are mostly dependent on urban planning, field price and economies of scale. In the past, studies have already described logistics sprawl in Paris Metropolitan area. These studies have concluded that logistic facilities far from Paris city center increased the distance travelled, and by extension, CO₂ emissions. This study does not question logistics sprawl in Paris metropolitan area but questions its consequences.This study presents a point of view on the location of cross-docking terminals. One main parcel service carrier was studied through a database strong of 600,000 inputs including pick-ups and deliveries for two months in the Paris metropolitan area. This study is not intended to be representative of all merchandise flows but makes it possible to understand the running of one significant actor. This project aims at determining the optimum terminals location according to two criteria: minimization of the total distance as calculated by the Euclidean distance (as the crow flies) between terminals and points of pick-up/ delivery, and the number of authorized terminals. The number of terminals is modified to study its relationship with the spatial distribution of its clients.Interestingly, we found that optimized locations for this parcel service carrier are located outside of Paris city center. Those locations minimize the total distance to the clients, and thus, are the best places to limit pollution. The reason is that the carrier manages this perimeter through a polycentric organization. Paris Metropolitan area is viewed as several sectors and not as a whole for this carrier. It is therefore unknown how the carrier's performance has evolved over time, but its current organization is close to the optimal situation.     

Same city—different options: An analysis of the work trips of married couples in the metropolitan area of Oslo

The question raised in this paper is in which ways the urban structure interacts with or creates different conditions for activities made by men and women. To explore this question the paper focuses on the travel to work of married couples in an urban context, how they adapt time use and deal with the spatial choices of work places and the allocation of transport resources. The empirical analyses are based on a personal travel study from the Oslo-region in 1990/91. Women work closer to their homes than the husbands, and have less choice on the geographical labour market. In families with one car, the husband has the first choice. Women have more often tasks on the way to and from work related to household responsibilities.     

Commuting patterns in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro. What differences between formal and informal jobs?

Limiting commuting trips in major cities is important from the environmental, social and economic standpoints. In order to design policies that aim to change commuting practices it is, however, necessary to have acquired a good understanding of the trips in question and their determinants. However, these trips have been subjected to very little study in the cities of developing countries. This paper is concerned with the Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan Area (RJMA), and sets out to test the influence of “classical” socioeconomic and spatial variables on the distance and duration of the commuting trips of the region's inhabitants, especially those with the lowest incomes. The main original feature of this research is that it includes jobs in the informal sector. The results show that, all other things being equal, commuting distances and times are shorter for the informal sector, and people walk more from their homes to their place of work because jobs in the informal sector are more dispersed than jobs in the formal sectors. The notable exception is personal and household services for which employees (who are mainly women) live a long way from the city center where wealthy families (and their jobs) are concentrated.     

Route choice behavior in a radial structured urban network: Do people choose the orbital or the route through the city center?

We use a license plate survey to study route choice through the city center of a medium-sized Dutch city, in which car drivers can basically choose between the orbital and center ring. For a sample of 1397 trips, we fitted a multinomial logit regression model. According to this model, route choice is relatively little influenced by actual travel time. This corresponds with the fact that many drivers did not choose the shortest time route. Travel distance in combination with one “route type velocity” for all orbital routes, and one route type velocity for all center routes is the most decisive factor. The route type velocity indicates how fast and attractive routes of that type are (being perceived). The results support the hypothesis that orbital routes are more attractive as these routes avoid the busy city center. This effect is however partly offset by the fact that drivers also prefer routes in the direction of their destination. These direct routes are mainly center routes. The results show the importance of considering complete routes in relation to their location and not only as a set of links and nodes when modeling route choice.     

Does CSR contribute to the development of rural young people in cultural tourism of sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from the Niger Delta in Nigeria

ABSTRACT

We assess the impact of a new corporate social responsibility (CSR) model of multinational oil companies on the development of rural young people (RYP) in cultural tourism in the Niger Delta of Nigeria. Six hundred RYP were sampled across the rural Niger Delta region. Using the logit model, results indicate that RYP have remained widely excluded from the General Memorandum of Understandings (GMoUs) interventions in cultural tourism projects due to the traditional beliefs that cultural affairs are prerogatives of elders, a caveat to the youths. This implies that if the traditions of the communities continue to hinder direct participation of the RYP from the GMoUs cultural tourism project interventions, achieving equality and cultural change would be limited in the region. The findings suggest that since handicrafts are key cultural products consumed in the tourism industry, GMoUs can play a role in helping to create an appropriate intervention structure that will be targeted towards youth empowerment in the area of traditional handicraft. This can be achieved if the Cluster Development Boards would focus on integrating rural young artisans into local tourism value chains, ensuring they benefit economically from the sector, and creating space for the views of RYP indigenous handicrafts knowledge.     

Alliance or acquisition? Strategies for growth in the container shipping industry,the case of CP ships

The global shipping industry is undergoing a transformation through the establishment of strategic alliances involving nearly all the major carriers. The near universality of the phenomenon would lead one to believe that being part of a global alliance is the only means of survival today. The case of CP Ships, the maritime arm of Canadian Pacific, provides a radically different model. CP Ships began as a small market player, but through direct acquisition has grown in size to be comparable with many of the large global carriers. It has remained focused as a niche player, venturing to confront the mainline carriers only peripherally. This paper explores the bases for CP Ship's success, highlighting the fact that alliances need not be the only path to survival in a global industry.     

Polar super seaways? Maritime transport in the Arctic: an analysis of shipowners’ intentions

The seasonal melting of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, which has been confirmed for several summers in a row and is widely documented, has become a hot topic in the media. It is fuelling many speculative scenarios about the purported renewal of a “cold war”, or even an actual armed conflict, in the Arctic, for the control of both its natural resources and its sea routes.The melting sea ice is indeed giving a second wind to projects, abandoned in the 19th century, to find shorter sea routes between Europe and Asia. A look at the map shows the savings in distance that can be achieved with the Arctic routes: for example, a trip between London and Yokohama through the Northwest Passage is 15,700 km and 13,841 km through the Northeast Passage, which is significantly shorter than the route through Suez (21,200 km) or Panama (23,300 km).² These findings fuel the idea that these Arctic routes, because they are shorter, are bound to attract abundant through traffic, and consequently will become a major political issue. Amid the media widespread image of a future maritime highway across Arctic seas, even some scientists yield to the popular image and assert, without proof, that Arctic traffic is set to increase rapidly.³ Beyond the seemingly decisive advantage of Arctic routes, however, there remain many obstacles to navigation (Lasserre, 2010d). In addition, these scenarios for the development of marine traffic in the Arctic remain highly speculative and are not based on an analysis of shipowners’ perceptions, which is the goal of this paper.This article will thus present the results of an empirical survey conducted among shipping companies to determine their interest in developing activities in the Arctic. Besides examining the potential development of shipping in Arctic routes, this research must be replaced in the context of intense competition between shippers, competition that makes both service reliability and costs of transport paramount. In this competition structure, the benefits of established routes between major hubs seems to prevail, so that new routes have difficulty being established.     

What’s in the black box? Evaluating anti-poverty tourism interventions utilizing theory of change

Increasing interest in poverty alleviation at the beginning of twenty-first century has facilitated the rapid growth of various anti-poverty tourism interventions (ATIs) around the globe. The tourism–poverty alleviation link, however, is still not well established, partly due to a paucity of appropriate evaluation approaches that are capable of simultaneously providing researchers, practitioners and policy-makers with a deeper understanding of an ATI’s mechanisms, the complexity surrounding its operational processes and evidence of its impacts. Additionally, ATI stakeholders’ values and influences play a significant role in ATI evaluation yet their perspectives are often overlooked. Theory of Change (ToC) has the potential to generate a holistic picture of an ATI, as this innovative approach has been developed to connect stakeholders’ theories of context with the mechanisms and outcomes of an intervention. Utilizing a case study of microfinance tourism in Vietnam, this paper provides readers with insight into ToC and proposes a conceptual framework which guides the application of ToC to facilitate the effective evaluation of ATIs.     

The Northeast Asian air transport network: is there a possibility of creating Open Skies in the region?

Unlike in the US and the European Union aviation markets, the Northeast Asian markets are still very fragmented. As a result, the passenger and air freight collection/distribution systems in the region are very inefficiently organized. The primary reason for the inefficient and inconvenient air carrier networks in the region is the restrictive bilateral air services agreements between Asian countries. This paper documents the nature and extent of the restrictive bilateral agreements among China, Japan and Korea, evaluates several bilateral or trilateral approaches for liberalizing the regional air transport markets, and makes a proposal which would increase substantially the probability of achieving an Open Skies market in the region. In particular, the current approach to liberalize the bilateral air services agreements among China, Korea and Japan has limitations even in the medium term because of China's and, to a less extent, Japan's reluctance to remove price and capacity restrictions. Therefore, as an institutional solution we propose to create bi-national (for bilateral negotiations) or tri-national (for trilateral negotiations) ‘Trade and Transport Facilitation Committees’, that can pursue a practical avenue to tie air transport negotiations with those of other goods and services trade.     

What can we learn from the JATM literature for the future of aviation post Covid-19? - A bibliometric and visualization analysis

This paper aims to draw lessons from retrospectively evaluating the evolution of the air transport discipline right up to the COVID-19 outbreak through the Journal of Air Transport Management (JATM), the main scholarly air transportation journal globally. As such, this study deploys a comprehensive bibliometric analysis and graphical mapping of the JATM knowledge body through CiteSpace visualization of 1483 JATM papers from 2001 to 2019. Our results suggest that while the industry has experienced pandemics and economic crises in the past, both were not dominant in influencing JATM literature neither in frequency nor in impact. That said, recovery, crisis and disruption are important key words in JATM papers not just in regard to safety and economic crisis management but increasingly also related to health concerns with recent key papers published in the pandemic and recovery management context which may have helped the industry dealing with the current crisis as well as current JATM papers on this topic assisting with preparing for a transitioning out of COVID-19 world.     

A streetcar to be desired? The development of a new approach to measure perception of place quality in the context of tram network modernisation

Recent decades have seen a global resurgence in tram network development around the world. Despite a primary basis in transport, tram network development is increasingly framed as a spatial planning mechanism that is prioritised for its potential place-based outcomes. However, there has been limited academic research to investigate impacts of tram network development on community perception of place quality. This study contributes to the literature by presenting the results of 601 completed questionnaires investigating variation in perception of place quality between legacy and modernised tram streetscapes in Melbourne, Australia. Evidence demonstrates that modernised tram streetscapes were perceived to contain an enhanced physical design compared to their legacy counterparts. Additionally, modernised tram streetscapes were rated as higher quality locations overall that were more likely to facilitate a wide range of place-based activities and amenities. Overall findings provide evidence that tram modernisation can be framed as an opportunity for place quality enhancements, and appear to contradict some of the political complications that have played a role in stalling tram streetscape modernisation projects in Melbourne.     

Do institutional structures matter? A comparative analysis of urban carbon management policies in the UK and Germany

The paper addresses the important question of how institutional structures matter to the delivery of climate change policy for urban transport. It examines the strategic goals, policy tools in operation and initial progress towards carbon emission reduction in seven cities across the UK and Germany where different institutional structures exist. The UK has the presence of a strong national carbon target and strong hierarchical national–local government relationships whilst Germany has a more integrated system of local transport provision in a context where local and regional government is stronger. Our findings show that the carbon agenda has made very little difference to what is happening on the ground in the cities. Across all sites, progress is being made but largely through technological improvements which are being almost completely offset by population growth. Even in the more integrated city environments there has not be an additional stimulus to manage the demand for travel.Contrary to previous research therefore, we cannot conclude that institutional structures are paramount in delivering effective carbon reduction policies. The institutional structures in the UK and in Germany are not perfectly aligned to carbon management but, given the cross policy impacts of most transport interventions, this is perhaps inevitable. We can clearly conclude however that “better” structures are not sufficient to achieve the implementation of more effective carbon policies. Whilst institutional structures must matter, it is the broader governance environment and the resources and politics involved in transport policy that currently seem to dominate the importance of the carbon agenda and implementation paths that emerge.     

What factors predict the type of person who is willing to fly in an autonomous commercial airplane?

There has been much discussion and research lately highlighting autonomous commercial flight, with most of the focus on engineering design and legal issues. Some prior research has shown that many people are generally not willing to fly in fully autonomous aircraft; however, there is a significant proportion of society that is willing to use these types of airplanes. It is critical for the aviation industry to be able to identify these individuals as they will likely be the early adopters. The current study was designed with the purpose of determining what factors predict the type of person who would be willing to fly in fully autonomous commercial airplanes. We provided a hypothetical scenario to 1042 potential passengers from the United States and asked them to rate their willingness to fly in that situation. We also collected demographic data, along with ratings of various scales to determine what predictors were significant in a regression model. In Stage 1, we built the model from a dataset of 522 participants and determined that the significant factors were familiarity with autonomous flight, fun factor, general wariness of new technology, happiness, fear, age, and educational level. This model accounted for 85.9% of the variance in the data. In Stage 2, we tested the model with 520 participants and found excellent model fit. We discuss the practical and theoretical implications of these findings.     

A comparative study of airport connectivity in China,Europe and US: Which network provides the best service to passengers?

This paper investigates the connectivity of the airport networks in China, Europe and US. Our aim is to analyze which network is most beneficial to final passengers in terms of travel time and which of the network features lead to such a result. A time-dependent minimum path approach is employed to calculate the minimum travel time between each pair of airports in the three networks, inclusive of flight times and waiting times in intermediate airports. We evaluate each fastest indirect connection in terms of waiting times and routing factors to consider the effect of the hubs’ coordination and locations. The Chinese network provides the quickest travels for passengers, but this performance is explained by a small number of airports per inhabitant. The US network is the most coordinated when considering indirect connections. The EU network provides the most homogeneous level of service when comparing airports of different sizes.