Asymmetric convergence in US financial credit default swap sector index markets

This study examines the asymmetric adjustments to the long-run equilibrium for credit default swap (CDS) sector indexes of three financial sectors – banking, financial services and insurance – in the presence of a threshold effect. The results of the momentum-threshold autoregression (M-TAR) models demonstrate that asymmetric cointegration exists for all pairs comprised of those three CDS indexes. The speeds of adjustment in the long-run are much higher in the case of adjustments from below the threshold than from above for all the pairs. The estimates of The MTAR-VEC models suggest that the dual CDS index return in each sector pair participates in the adjustment to equilibrium in the short- and long-run taken together. But in the long-run alone, only one of the two spreads in each pair participates. Policy implications are also provided.     

The impact of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley act on the financial services industry

This paper examines the impact of Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act across three main sectors of the financial services industry: commercial banks, insurance companies, and brokerage firms, taking account of the wealth effect associated with the announcement. We find that the law has a differential impact across the financial services industry. All three industries have gained due to this law with commercial banks benefiting most, followed by the insurance industry. Further, the results show that larger firms benefited more in both the banking and insurance industries and exposure to systematic risk was reduced for all sectors of the financial services industry after this regulation passed.     

The synergistic effect of insurance and banking sector activities on economic growth in Africa

It is widely understood that the insurance and banking sectors of every economy perform some functions in driving economic growth. What is not yet well documented is whether their roles are complimentary or substitutive. With the aid of the dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation technique, this paper evaluates the synergistic effect of both sectors on economic growth in a panel of 10 African countries that are responsible for most of the activities in the continent’s financial sector. The insurance-banking-growth nexus was also examined through bootstrap panel causality tests. The results show that the life insurance market and the banking sector, as well as the non-life insurance market and the banking sector, are complimentary. We find that, overall, the relationship between the insurance and banking sectors in Africa is a complimentary one and that their synergistic impact on economic growth is positive. The feedback hypothesis was also confirmed in the relationship between the insurance sector and economic growth and between the banking sector and economic growth.     

Risk spillover analysis of China’s financial sectors based on a new GARCH copula quantile regression model

This study employs a new GARCH copula quantile regression model to estimate the conditional value at risk for systemic risk spillover analysis. To be specific, thirteen copula quantile regression models are derived to capture the asymmetry and nonlinearity of the tail dependence between financial returns. Using Chinese stock market data over the period from January 2007 to October 2020, this paper investigates the risk spillovers from the banking, securities, and insurance sectors to the entire financial system. The empirical results indicate that (i) three financial sectors contribute significantly to the financial system, and the insurance sector displays the largest risk spillover effects on the financial system, followed by the banking sector and subsequently the securities sector; (ii) the time-varying risk spillovers are much larger during the global financial crisis than during the periods of the banking liquidity crisis, the stock market crash and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results provide important implications for supervisory authorities and portfolio managers who want to maintain the stability of China’s financial system and optimize investment portfolios.     

Systemic risk in European financial and energy sectors: Dynamic factor copula approach

We perform an analysis of systemic risk in financial and energy sectors in Europe using daily time series of CDS spreads. We employ the factor copula model with GAS dynamics from Oh and Patton (2018) for the purpose of estimating dependency structures between market participants. Based on the estimated models, we perform Monte Carlo simulations to obtain future values of CDS spreads, and then measure the probability of systemic events at given time points. We conclude that substantially higher systemic risk is present in the financial sector compared to the energy sector. We also find that the most systemically vulnerable financial and energy companies come from Spain.     

Causality-in-variance and causality-in-mean between the Greek sovereign bond yields and Southern European banking sector equity returns

This paper adopts the robust cross-correlation function methodology developed by Hong (J Econom 103:183–224, 2001) in order to test for volatility and mean spillovers between Greek long-term government bond yields and the banking sector stock returns of four Southern European countries, namely Greece, Portugal, Italy, and Spain. Its primary focus is on investigating the potential impacts of the recent European sovereign debt crisis. While most previous studies have focused on within-country causalities, we rather assess cross-country transmission effects. The presented results provide evidence of bidirectional volatility spillovers between Greek long-term interest rates and the banking sector equities of Portugal, Italy, and Spain that emerged during the European sovereign debt crisis. We also find significant unidirectional causality-in-mean from bank stock returns in Greece to Greek long-term bond yields during the crisis period as well as significant causality at the mean level from the bank equity returns in Portugal, Italy, and Spain to Greek bond yields.     

There is no smoke without a fire: The effect of government interventions in less advanced economies

The lack of liquidity in the interbank market during the crisis of 2007–2011 led governments to impose different policies to rescue their countries’ banking sectors. While in advanced countries interventions in the banking sector were mostly related to a lack of liquidity and significant asymmetric information regarding counterparty risk, in many less advanced countries they had a precautionary motive. In our article, we investigate the effectiveness of policy interventions on healthy banking markets, with possible negative spill-over effects from other countries. To this extent, we use an event study methodology to test the effect of liquidity and financial sector policy announcements on interbank spread changes in six Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries over the period between 2007 and 2011. We find that standard liquidity interventions did not provide effective stabilization. In fact, our evidence suggests that the spread widened after their announcement, probably as a result of the negative signal and consequently increased risk aversion of banks. In such situations, regulators should consider policy instruments that aim to decrease uncertainty in the market.     

The conditional dependence structure of insurance sector credit default swap indices

This study assesses the dependence structure of insurance sector credit default swap indices, using a copula-GARCH approach. We use daily data of the US, EU, and UK insurance sectors, covering the period from January 2004 to June 2013. We find substantial increases in dependence during the financial crisis periods. Prior to the crises, various copulas are found to best fit each pair; specifically, asymmetric tail dependence is found for the UK–US pair, suggesting the possibility of large simultaneous losses. However, during the crisis periods, the Frank copula fits best, with no significant tail dependence detected, implying low systemic risks.     

Does aging influence structural change? Evidence from panel data

Our study represents a first attempt to single out the effects of aging on the entire structure of the economy that is approximated by employment shares in different sectors. We find that even after controlling for the effects of other relevant factors - e.g., income per capita, share of trade in GDP, government consumption share in GDP, population size - aging does have a statistically significant differentiated impact on the employment shares. In particular, we find that an increase in aging exerts a statistically significant adverse effect on the employment shares in agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and mining and quarrying industries. At the same time, an increasing share of the elderly (decreasing share of the youth) in society positively affects employment shares in community, social, and personal services as well as in the financial sector.     

Instability spillovers in the banking sector: A spatial econometrics approach

In the study, we employ a dynamic spatial panel model to identify factors that are the sources of instability spillover in the banking sector. Using a sample of publicly listed banks, we document that the stability of a bank depends not only on its own characteristics and the macroeconomic conditions of its home country, but also on the stability of other banks in the same and other countries. We find weak evidence that the spillover effects are greater from domestic banks than from foreign ones. This study has significant implications for market regulators in terms of the role of country interdependence as a spillover mechanism during times of financial turbulence.     

Capital market reactions to the passage of the Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999

The Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999, also known as the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLBA), removed most of the remaining barriers between financial companies. Stock market reactions to the passage of GLBA vary across financial sectors and company size. Specifically, we find negative returns for foreign banks, thrifts and finance companies; insignificant returns for banks; and positive returns for investment banks and insurance companies. Additionally, larger nondepository firms have higher returns. The return variation reflects resolution of uncertainty surrounding the final provisions of GLBA, competitive pressures, and expectations of future business combinations. Potential gains from business combinations may arise from economies of scope, market power, and/or from an implicit extension of government guarantees to banking affiliates.     

Job rotation and employee performance – evidence from a longitudinal study in the financial services industry

Job rotation, i.e. a lateral transfer of an employee between jobs within a company, is frequently used as a means to develop employees, learn about their abilities as well as to motivate them. We investigate the determinants and performance effects of job rotation empirically by analyzing a large panel data-set covering the German banking and financial services sector. In particular, we study (i) how prior individual performance affects the propensity to rotate and (ii) how performance changes after the rotation. We find that while both, low- and high-performers rotate, lateral moves are more frequent among low performers. However, those having been rotated between jobs achieve a higher performance in subsequent years as compared to other non-rotating employees in a comparable position. Interestingly, this effect is driven by high performers, whereas for low performers, we find no significant relationship between job rotation and future performance. The results thus suggest that firms should focus their job rotation programs on high performers and should not expect that low performers achieve performance gains when being rotated to a different function.     

Foreign entry and the Turkish banking system in 2000s

In recent decades, the role of foreign ownership in banking sectors, and especially the developing ones has become a frequently investigated topic among finance scholars. Similar to many other developing countries seeking to attract foreign direct investments, Turkey has experienced a great increase in the number of foreign-owned banks in the sector following the 2000 and 2001 economic and financial crises. Using panel data regression analysis for a sample of 31 deposit banks operating in Turkey, for the period 2002–2012, we find that foreign ownership has a negative and statistically significant impact on accounting profits, proxied by the ratio of earnings before taxes to total assets. However, contrary to expectations, three other dependent variables representing interest rate spreads, non-lending activities and short term risk, were not found to be significantly associated with foreign ownership.     

Independent component analysis for realized volatility: Analysis of the stock market crash of 2008

This paper investigates the factors that drove the U.S. equity market returns from 2007 to early 2010. The period was highlighted by volatile energy and commodity prices, the collapse of insurance and banking firms, extreme implied volatility and a subsequent rally in the overall market. To extract the driving factors, we decompose the returns of the S&P500 sector ETFs into statistically independent signals using independent component analysis. We find that the generated factors have interesting financial interpretations and are consistent with the major economic themes of the period. We find that there are two sets of general market betas during the period along with a dominant factor for energy and materials sector. In addition, we find that the EGARCH model which accommodates asymmetric responses between returns and volatility can plausibly fit the high levels of variance during the crash. Finally, estimated correlations dropped when commodity prices moved higher, but then spiked when the S&P500 crashed in late 2008.     

Variation in productive efficiency in French workers' cooperatives

In this study, we explore the distribution of productive efficiency among workers' cooperatives operating in each of four sectors of French manufacturing. We use stochastic frontier panel data techniques to estimate production relationships in each sector, and to decompose output variation into input variation, variation in the effects of two indicators of the degree of worker participation in management, variation in productive efficiency, and an unexplained residual. In all four sectors we find that conventionally measured capital and labor inputs make a significant contribution to productivity. In only one sector do participation indicators contribute significantly. Variation in productive efficiency contributes significantly in all four sectors.Earlier versions of this article were presented at the ORSA/TIMS Joint National Meeting in Philadelphia, PA, October 1990, and at the Allied Social Science Associations meetings in Washington, DC, December 1990. Helpful comments from discusants at both meetings, and from two good referees, are gratefuly acknowledged, as is financial support of AUPELF and the UNC University Research Council.     

Regulating for development: the case of microfinance

The regulatory concerns of microfinance sector lies in the special nature of these institutions which caters the needs of those who have been marginalised from the formal financial sector. The paper underlines the importance of an appropriate regulatory framework to support sustainable delivery of diversified microfinance services such as savings and insurance. The paper explores the rationale for regulation in the microfinance sector, and followed by a review of major regulatory approaches and its impact on the microfinance sector. The sector-specific regulations along with prudential reforms may facilitate and environment, which allows microfinance institutions to mobilise savings and to reduce the problems in enforcing normal banking regulations. The paper also emphasises the need to incorporate the country specificities in the regulatory approach to encapsulate the specificities of macroeconomic environment and different stages of development.     

Leverage and firm growth: an empirical investigation of gazelles from emerging Europe

The aim of the paper is to assess the impact of leverage on gazelles’ performance while controlling for firm characteristics, macroeconomic environment, and characteristics of domestic banking sectors. Using a sample of 1105 gazelles from Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries for the period 2006–2014, we find that leverage negatively affects firm growth. The results prove to be robust regarding the use of different estimation approaches, alternatives variables for firm growth, and different sub-samples. Our results suggest that improving access to various sources and types of financing represents a key issue for supporting gazelles’ growth. We also find that macroeconomic environment and banking sector characteristics are important determinants of gazelles’ growth. The economic growth positively influences sales and total assets growth, while the effect of financial and economic development varied with the firm growth measure used. Our findings provide empirical evidence for the need of policy initiatives at national and European Union level to facilitate the growth of small businesses.

     

Inflation and the transition to a mixed economy: Can it work?

This paper reviews a number of possible scenarios for introducing a market element into a centrally planned economy, and analyses the financial relationships between the planned and the market sectors of the resulting mixed economy. It is argued that repressed inflation with some degree of excess demand and administrative price-control, is not neutral, but has distribution effects which greatly ameliorate the financial position of the state in a mixed economy in which the banking sector is still part of the state-controlled sector.     

Requiem for market discipline and the specter of TBTF in Japanese banking

This study examines the reaction of private market participants to the enhancement of the “Too-Big-To-Fail” (TBTF) doctrine in the Japanese banking sector. The event justifying the use of the “TBTF” label occurred on May 17th, 2003, when the Japanese government decided to bailout Resona Holdings, the 5th largest financial group in the country. By using a sample of all Japanese listed banks and the standard event study methodology, we document significant and positive wealth effects in the stock market accruing to large banks and negative (though non-significant) effects accruing to smaller banks. Besides the effect on bank equity values, we also document a significant abnormal volume of trading on days following the bailout announcement date for the largest banks only. We extend our empirical analysis on stock prices and trading volumes by detecting a significant impact in the Credit Default Swap (CDS) market. This last result allows us to quantify, in a probabilistic sense, the effects of TBTF in addition to uncovering the mere presence of such a regulatory policy.     

Managed Care Incentives and Inpatient Complications

Managed care organizations control costs through restrictions on patient access to specialized services, oversight of treatment protocols, and financial incentives for providers. We investigate possible effects of such practices on the care patients receive by studying frequencies of in-hospital complications. We find significant differences in complication rates between managed care and fee-for-service patients. We investigate the sources of this variation by comparing probabilities of complications among patients with different types of managed care coverage and patients treated in different hospitals. For several patient categories, the differences in outcomes we find appear to arise not from differential treatment of patients within hospitals or from heterogeneity in patients, but from variations in care across hospitals that tend to treat patients with different insurance types.