Show me the money: The monetary policy risk premium

We create a parsimonious monetary policy exposure (MPE) index based on observable firm characteristics that previous studies link to how stocks react to monetary policy. Our index successfully captures stocks’ responses to both conventional and unconventional monetary policy. Stocks whose prices react more positively to expansionary monetary policy (high-MPE stocks) earn lower average returns. This result is consistent with the notion that high-MPE stocks provide a hedge against bad economic shocks, to which the Federal Reserve responds with expansionary monetary policy. A long-short trading strategy designed to exploit this effect achieves an annualized Sharpe Ratio of 0.77.     

Australian money supply analysis: The relationship between the monetary base,secondary reserves and the money supply

Utilising the criteria of predictability, stability over time, and instrument stability this paper examines the relationship between the reserve base and the money supply in Australia. Various modifications to the money supply function are made to incorporate the influence of direct monetary controls, of the overdraft lending system, and of the increased substitutability of government securities for high powered money arising from the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy of pegging government security yields. Doubt is cast on the ability of the Australian authorities to control the primary monetary aggregates on a short-run basis.     

Imitation and contrarian behaviour: hyperbolic bubbles,crashes and chaos

Abstract

Imitative and contrarian behaviours are the two typical opposite attitudes of investors in stock markets. We introduce a simple model to investigate their interplay in a stock market where agents can take only two states, bullish or bearish. Each bullish (bearish) agent polls m ‘friends’ and changes her opinion to bearish (bullish) if (i) at least mρ _hb (mρ _bh ) among the m agents inspected are bearish (bullish) or (ii) at least mρ _hh >mρ _hb (mρ _bb >mρ _bh ) among the m agents inspected are bullish (bearish). The condition (i) ((ii)) corresponds to imitative (antagonistic) behaviour. In the limit where the number N of agents is infinite, the dynamics of the fraction of bullish agents is deterministic and exhibits chaotic behaviour in a significant domain of the parameter space {ρ _hb ,ρ _bh ,ρ _hh ,ρ _bb ,m}. A typical chaotic trajectory is characterized by intermittent phases of chaos, quasi-periodic behaviour and super-exponentially growing bubbles followed by crashes. A typical bubble starts initially by growing at an exponential rate and then crosses over to a nonlinear power-law growth rate leading to a finite-time singularity. The reinjection mechanism provided by the contrarian behaviour introduces a finite-size effect, rounding off these singularities and leads to chaos. We document the main stylized facts of this model in the symmetric and asymmetric cases. This model is one of the rare agent-based models that give rise to interesting non-periodic complex dynamics in the ‘thermodynamic’ limit (of an infinite number N of agents). We also discuss the case of a finite number of agents, which introduces an endogenous source of noise superimposed on the chaotic dynamics.     

解读游资与资产价格泡沫之惑——《游资与资产价格泡沫研究》读后感

投机和泡沫是很早就有的经济现象,从早期的＂南海泡沫＂、＂郁金香狂热＂,到日本的泡沫经济、发展中国家的债务热,甚至包括现在的互联网热,都可以发现其踪影,     

An analytical review of volatility metrics for bubbles and crashes

Bubbles and crashes have long been an important area of research that has not yet led to a comprehensive theoretical or empirical understanding of how to define, measure, and compare such extreme market events. Highlights of the vast literature on bubbles, crashes, and volatility are surveyed and a promising direction for future research, based on a theory of short-side rationing, is described. The theory suggests that, especially in extreme market conditions, marginal quantities held or not held become transactionally more important than the prices paid or received. Our approach is empirically implemented by fitting monthly elasticity of return variances to an exponential expression. From this follows a comparison of changes in implied versus realized volatility, generation of an extreme events line (EEL), and a crash intensity comparison metric. These methods open a new perspective from which it is possible to analyze bubble and crash events as applied to different time scales and asset classes that include bonds, real estate, foreign exchange, and commodities.     

电子货币对货币政策工具的冲击与挑战

随着金融电子化和国际互联网的迅猛发展，数字经济与网上交易作为一种新的贸易领域已逐渐成为商务应用的一大发展趋势。电子货币是电子商务活动的基础，人们只有在完善认识和建立可行的电子货币系统基础之上，才能真正开展电子商务活动。     

美国应对资产泡沫的货币政策及其启示

本文分析了美联储应对20世纪90年代美国股市泡沫的货币政策,认为美联储成功之处在于泡沫破灭之后进行的强有力干预,其对资产价格给予的密切关注也得到普遍认可,但是美联储在泡沫形成时期奉行的不干预政策则一直饱受争议。本文进一步指出,由于美国和美元的特殊地位,美联储的政策不具有普适性。从美国应对资产泡沫的货币政策中,我国央行可以得到以下启示:除了要密切关注资产价格外,还需要对资产价格实行对称干预,同时干预手段要多样化,政策措施也要连续,只有这样才能成功地干预资产泡沫。     

Risk premia,asset price bubbles,and monetary policy

We develop a dynamic general equilibrium asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs to study the effects of monetary policy on prices, risk premia, asset price bubbles, and financial stability. We propose a new framework for monetary policy with respect to bubbles. Because bubble risk premia arise from an interaction between disagreements among investors and dynamic trading constraints, under a non-accommodative monetary policy, liquidity adjusted risk and bubble risk premia increase. What matters for policy is the trading constrained fraction/mass of agents that disagree about fundamentals (i.e. optimists/pessimists). Accommodative policy can lead to a larger fraction of trading constrained agents that disagree, larger bubbles, and increased systemic risk. An implication of our results is that accommodative monetary policy in response to the Covid-19 crisis does not increase systemic risk due to asset price bubbles, as long as the policy keeps inflation under control.     

Near-money premiums,monetary policy,and the integration of money markets: Lessons from deregulation

The 1960s and 1970s witnessed rapid growth in the markets for new money market instruments, such as negotiable certificates of deposit (CDs) and Eurodollar deposits, as banks and investors sought ways around various regulations affecting funding markets. In this paper, we investigate the impacts of the deregulation and integration of the money markets. We find that the pricing and volume of negotiable CDs and Eurodollars issued were influenced by the availability of other short-term safe assets, especially Treasury bills. Banks appear to have issued these money market instruments as substitutes for other types of funding. The integration of money markets and ability of banks to raise funds using a greater variety of substitutable instruments has implications for monetary policy. We find that, when deregulation reduced money market segmentation, larger open market operations were required to produce a given change in the federal funds rate, but that the pass through of changes in the funds rate to other market rates was also greater.     

论我国货币供求变化对货币政策的影响

本文认为我国货币政策效力下降的原因在于：货币供给扩张受到限制和货币流通速度降低。商业银行和企业行为的变化增强了货币供给的内生性,降低了中央银行对货币供给的影响力;由于“流动性陷阱”导致了货流通速度降低,使货币供给增加不能相应提高总需求。通过建立一个现代的凯恩斯货市场需求的模型,重新分析了“流动性陷阱。     

Euler equations and money market interest rates: A challenge for monetary policy models

Standard macroeconomic models equate the money market rate targeted by the central bank with the interest rate implied by a consumption Euler equation. We use U.S. data to calculate the interest rates implied by Euler equations derived from a number of specifications of household preferences. Correlations between these Euler equation rates and the Federal Funds rate are generally negative. Regression results and impulse response functions imply that the spreads between the Euler equation rates and the Federal Funds rate are systematically linked to the stance of monetary policy. Our findings pose a fundamental challenge for models that equate the two.     

金融创新对货币供求、货币政策影响的理论分析

金融创新新影响货币供求、货币政策，中央银行货币政策应从操作规则，调控范围、作用对象、政策工具等方面进行创新。     

Financial progress and the stability of long-run money demand: Implications for the conduct of monetary policy in emerging economies

This paper examines whether recent financial changes in three emerging market economies in the Gulf region (Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar) have distorted the character and the stability of their underlying long-run money demand relations. Money demand instability prompts concerns about the appropriateness of targeting monetary aggregates and could weaken the presumed link between monetary policy and its ultimate objectives. Our results suggest that the quick pace of financial changes in the three emerging market economies did not cause undue shifts in their equilibrium money demand relations. Further evidence from direct tests of cointegration stability indicates the superiority of targeting M1 in the UAE and M2 for Qatar. In Bahrain, both M1 and M2 prove equally appropriate to guide monetary policy. Thus, despite the wave of financial developments that have recently swept the three Gulf economies, the evidence suggests that monetary authorities in these countries should maintain a close watch on monetary growth as a principal policy guide.     

The informational efficiency and the financial crashes

The evolution of the daily informational efficiency is measured for different stock market indices (Japanese, Malaysian, Russian, Mexican, and the US markets) by using the local entropy and the symbolic time series analysis. There is some evidence that for different stock markets, the probability of having a crash increases as the informational efficiency decreases. Further results suggest that the latter probability also increases for jumping to a less efficient market. In addition, the US stock market seems to be the most structurally efficient and the Russian is the most inefficient, maybe because is a young market, recently established in 1995.     

The role of accounting in money laundering and money dirtying

This paper examines the processes involved in the misapplication of accounting knowledge from the angle of financial crime. It analyses the importance of accounting knowledge in the construction of money laundering operations and the development of money dirtying. It shows that contrary to a widely held idea, money laundering and money dirtying techniques are not based on the same accounting practices and deviant mechanisms. This paper explores three degrees of integrating accounting knowledge in the organization of financial crime procedures. It sums up the motivations of white-collar criminals and demonstrates that the preparation of a money laundering operation differs from the financing of terrorist activities.     

Stock returns and inflation: The role of the monetary sector

This paper hypothesizes that the relation between stock returns and inflation is caused by the equilibrium process in the monetary sector. More importantly, these relations vary over time in a systematic manner depending on the influence of money demand and supply factors. Post-war evidence from the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Germany indicates that the negative stock return-inflation relations are caused by money demand and counter-cyclical money supply effects. On the other hand, pro-cyclical movements in money, inflation, and stock prices during the 1930's lead to relations which are either positive or insignificant.