Structure of Firm Location Choices: An Examination of Japanese Greenfield Investment in China*

This paper presents an empirical investigation of the location decision structure of Japanese investors in China. In this study, a nested logit model and rich Japanese firm‐level greenfield manufacturing foreign direct investment data are calibrated together. This examination is not only driven by the unsatisfactory model specification of the conditional logit model in previous location choice analyses, specifically the violation of the independence from irrelevant alternatives assumption; but is also driven by the urgent need to better understand foreign investors’ in general and Japanese investors’ in particular location decision structure in China. Two potential hierarchical and sequential location decision‐making structures of Japanese investors are then tested, which are respectively in line with the spatial divide of China's FDI preferential policies and with China's six traditional census areas.     

Vertical foreign direct investment: Evidence from Japanese and U.S. multinational enterprises

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries has increased since the 1990s, but there is mixed evidence of vertical FDI associated with factor-seeking motives. This paper estimates the vertical motive of offshore production by multinational enterprises (MNEs) by exploiting past schooling characteristics as instruments for skilled-labor abundance in a host country. Using panel data on Japanese and U.S. MNEs in the 1990s, I find that skilled-labor abundance has a significantly negative impact on sales of manufacturing foreign affiliate only for Japanese MNEs. The results suggest that vertical FDI activity was more prevalent in Japanese MNEs than U.S. MNEs. A plausible explanation is that Japanese MNEs might be more vertically integrated with their offshore production than U.S. MNEs. A difference in foreign outsourcing activities could generate the observed deviation between Japanese and U.S. MNEs.     

Explaining the geography and depth of international production: The case of US and Japanese multinational enterprises

Explaining the Geography and Depth of International Production: The Case of US and Japanese Multinational Enterprises. — This paper analyzes the determinants of intercountry variation in the extent and depth of the presence of foreign affiliates of US and Japanese MNEs, using an extended model of the location of foreign production in a four-dimensional setting. Country size, income levels, and urbanization favour the location of MNEs’ production. Geographical and cultural proximity between countries encourage investment links. However, distance favours the localization of production. Better infrastructure attracts MNEs to a country. Restrictive trade and investment regimes although costing some MNE production may improve its depth. Investment and tax incentives do affect the patterns of location of production while the strength of patent regime does not.     

Multinational enterprises, regional economic integration, and export-platform production in the host countries: An empirical analysis for the US and Japanese corporations

Multinational Enterprises, Regional Economic Integration and Export-Platform Production in the Host Countries: An Empirical Analysis for the US and Japanese Corporations. — This paper analyzes determinants of export orientation of overseas affiliates of US and Japanese MNEs for the 1982–1994 period. The author contends that production geared to MNEs’ home market and that production oriented to third-country markets are determined by different factors. The empirical analysis finds the home-market-oriented production concentrated in countries that offer low-cost workforce, enjoy geographical proximity or preferential access to the home market. The location of third-country-market-oriented exports is influenced more by strategic factors such as participation in regional trading blocs and preferential access to major markets than factor costs considerations.     

Foreign Investment,Divestment and Relocation by Japanese Electronics Firms in East Asia*

Although foreign divestment and international relocation by multinational firms carry important economic implications for the industrialization of East Asian countries, there has been little empirical research on these issues. In this paper we analyze the magnitude and pattern of foreign divestment and relocation by Japanese electronics firms in nine East Asian countries during 1995–2003. The average annual divestment rate of electronics manufacturing affiliates is 3 percent, but divestment patterns diverge strongly across countries. Divestments are much more frequent in higher labor cost countries and in approximately one‐third of cases are accompanied by relocations to lower wage countries, particularly to China. Evidence is found for rivalry between China and ASEAN countries in attracting foreign direct investment, but the growing attractiveness of China has not been accompanied by a reduction in employment in Japanese affiliates in ASEAN countries (with the exception of Singapore). Divestments and relocations are related to Japanese firms’ strategy to reconfigure their Asian production networks in response to changing competitiveness, regional integration, and changes in local investment environments.     

Reorganization of Intra‐ASEAN 5 Trade Flows: The ‘China Factor’*

There are claims that China's influence on ASEAN is direct in that she has encouraged more exports to flow into her huge markets and changed trade flows among member countries. Demand and supply are thus deemed to have become more China‐centered. This study therefore explores the plausibility of China as a ‘factor’ that influences bilateral intra‐ASEAN 5 trade flows through demand (exporting country) and supply (importing country). The results imply that China's integration in the region increases the size of the key ASEAN member economies export market. There is also no indication that import sourcing from China by ASEAN 5 countries reduces export expansion within the latter. The results accord with the fact that although China has become an important export destination and an import source for individual ASEAN 5 countries, this has not reduced intra‐ASEAN 5 trade.     

Who Uses Free Trade Agreements?

The utilization of ASEAN free trade agreements (FTA) is low by international standards. To clarify the reasons for such low utilization, this paper uses unique affiliate‐level data to investigate what kinds of Japanese affiliates in ASEAN are more likely to use an FTA scheme in their exporting. Our findings are as follows. First, the larger the affiliate is, or the more diversified the origins of its procurements, the more likely it is to utilize an FTA scheme in its exporting. Second, affiliates that export actively to countries with higher general tariffs are more likely to use FTA. Third, there are clear differences in FTA utilization depending on affiliates' locations and sectors.     

与本土企业相比跨国公司环境业绩更差还是更好——基于天津滨海新区190家企业调研数据

跨国公司已经成为全球国际生产的重要方式,对东道国的经济、就业等方面产生了重大影响,其中对东道国环境也产生了很大的影响。对于我国而言,伴随着FD I带来的经济增长,环境状况也有恶化的趋势。我国的环境恶化是否与跨国公司的进入有关,进入我国的跨国公司环境管理是否比本土企业更差,污染排放是否更严重,本文通过建立纵向差异模型以及利用天津经济技术开发区的数据建立计量模型进行实证检验,得到结论认为,跨国公司的环境管理是优于本土企业的。     

ASEAN FTA,distribution of income,and globalization

This paper examines the impact of Free Trade Agreements on income distribution within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and between the members and their trading partners outside ASEAN. The study uses a Computable General Equilibrium model, a modified version of the 57 sector, 87 country, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) integrated model of national input–output tables, version-6.2 (2001 database) with its reserve matrix facility, to simulate income distribution results as an outcome of certain parameter changes that appear in intra and inter regional trade.Within ASEAN, trade liberalization will stimulate the output of each country within the region according to their comparative advantage. Since trade liberalization tends to increase output of capital-intensive goods more than labor-intensive goods, the less-developed countries within the region tend to get smaller benefits compared to other member countries. In addition, the physical means of production tend to gain more relative to the gains of labor from the FTAs. This tends to widen the income gap between high-income and low-income households within ASEAN.Comparing ASEAN and the developed non-ASEAN countries, an FTA within ASEAN tends to reduce the returns to labor of the developed non-member countries and narrow the income gap between ASEAN, as a whole, and those rich countries since capital-intensive products of developing countries are often labor-intensive goods of developed countries.     

The determinants of location choice of South Korean FDI in China

By using extensive and unique firm-level data for South Korean foreign affiliates in China, we investigated the determinants of location choice for South Korean multinational companies. South Korean companies are unevenly distributed inside China with more than 60 percent of their affiliates being located in the three northeast regions. Using conditional logit estimation, we found that market size and government policies approximated by economic zones, quality of labor, and transport infrastructure play a positive role in deciding location. On the other hand, labor costs, inner waterways, and distance show negative and significant coefficients. Finally, the model specification is shown to be robust to possible violation of the assumption of identical independent error terms. Some of the estimation results stand in contrast to those of other studies on the determinants of FDI stock flows from the world or Japan.     

Knowledge spillovers from FDI in China: The role of educated labor in multinational enterprises

This paper employs a firm-level panel data set for a high-tech cluster in China to examine knowledge spillovers from multinational enterprises (MNEs) to domestic firms, focusing on the role of MNEs’ employment of educated workers. We find that knowledge of MNEs spills over to domestic firms in the same industry through MNEs’ employment of workers with graduate-level or overseas education. We also find that Japanese MNEs contribute less to knowledge spillovers than US MNEs. This is likely due to the fact that Japanese MNEs in China do not employ much educated labor.     

Trade effects of foreign direct investment: Evidence for Taiwan with four ASEAN countries

Trade Effects of Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence for Taiwan with Four ASEAN Countries. —This paper examines the trade effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) between Taiwan and each of the following four ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Regression results show that Taiwan's outward FDI has a significant positive effect on exports to and imports from the host country, whereas no such effects were consistently found for inward FDI from the same country.     

Regional Trade Agreements in East Asia: Will They Be Sustainable?*

By assessing the sustainability of regional trade agreements (RTAs) for East Asia, we quantitatively evaluate the likely impact of proposed East Asian RTA strategies on the East Asian economies and the world economy with respect to consumption, production, volume of trade and terms of trade effects by applying a multi‐country and multi‐sector computable general equilibrium model. These strategies include: (i) the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA: a being‐left‐alone strategy); (ii) an ASEAN Hub RTA (a hub‐and‐spoke type of overlapping RTA strategy); (iii) the AFTA versus a China–Japan–Korea RTA (a duplicating or competing RTA strategy); and (iv) an ASEAN+3 RTA (an expansionary RTA strategy). We find that an expansionary ASEAN+3 RTA could be a sustainable policy option because the members’ gains would be significantly positive, with more equitably distributed gains between members than when using other strategies. The effect on world welfare would also be positive and the negative effect on nonmembers would not be very strong. More interestingly, if the East Asian countries cooperate with Pacific Basin countries to form an APEC‐level RTA, such as a free trade area of the Asia‐Pacific, the extension of the regional trade bloc might be considered a more desirable policy option than the proposed East Asian RTAs for East Asian economies, even though countries excluded from the free trade area of the Asia Pacific are worse off.     

中资企业进入东盟市场的投资机会分析

由于地理位置的邻近和文化背景的相似,东盟市场一直都是中国企业进行投资的优先对象,特别是近两年来随着中国与东盟的政治和经济关系都发生了巨大的变化,在新形势下分析对东盟投资的国别选择和产业选择成为对外投资成败的关键。在对东盟市场的重要战略地位进行研究之后,将东盟各国家的经济发展状况进行横向比较,同时根据东盟各国资源优势将各国家的产业进行纵向对比,然后结合中资企业的发展现状作出投资东盟市场的机会选择。     

Regional Characteristics,Industry Agglomeration and Location Choice: Evidence from Japanese Manufacturing Investments in Korea*

Using extensive firm‐level data for the years 1998–2006, we analyze the regional location decision of Japanese manufacturing foreign direct investors in Korea by focusing on the role of agglomeration economies. Our logit estimates indicate that horizontal agglomeration matters in the location decision, but vertical agglomeration does not. Strong evidence of country‐of‐origin effects is found. Japanese foreign direct investments in high‐technology industries show a typical ‘follow‐the‐leader’ pattern, while those in the in low‐technology industries are influenced by regional endowments. In addition, Japan's high‐technology firms are likely to prefer urban locations so that they can enjoy the externalities of business services.     

Multinational Enterprises,Technology Diffusion,and Host Country Absorptive Capacity: A Note

Abstract

Previous empirical studies show mixed support for the hypothesis that the impact of technology diffusion from multinational enterprises (MNEs) on host country productivity growth depends on host country absorptive capacity. One explanation is that the results of these empirical studies are sensitive to the measures of absorptive capacity used. This paper contributes to the empirical literature by investigating average years of schooling and total factor productivity gap as measures of host country absorptive capacity in 38 developed and developing countries. Panel data regression equations are estimated using a cross-sectionally heteroskedastic and timewise autoregressive (CHTA) model. The paper has two main results. The first result does not support the hypothesis that the technology diffusion from MNEs has a positive impact on the productivity growth in developing countries. The second result is that the total factor productivity gap is more appropriate than average years of schooling to measure host country absorptive capacity. This may suggest that the results of previous studies that used average years of schooling should be interpreted with caution.     

Demographic Aspects of Urbanization in Korea

Abstract

This study analysed the location selection determinants of Korean foreign direct investment (KFDI) from the perspectives of OLI paradigm and resource- and knowledge-based views. The study involved a sample of 1911 Korean multinational enterprises (MNEs) and their 3095 foreign subsidiaries during the period of 1999–2004. Specifically, the study compared the differences of foreign direct investment (FDI) location decisions (1) between less-developed and developed countries (LDCs and DCs) and (2) between chaebols and non-chaebols. The results showed that the partitioned sample model of chaebols versus non-chaebols was found to have more detailed effects on the location decision between the two regions than the combined full sample model. In addition, the results showed that there are clear, effectual differences for subsidiary scale and prior host country experience between chaebols and non-chaebols.     

中国与东盟国家贸易对中国经济增长影响的实证研究——基于不同生产要素密集型产品贸易的视角

东盟已连续十几年成为中国第五大贸易伙伴,因此研究中国与东盟贸易对中国经济增长的影响具有重要的意义。本文从不同生产要素密集型产品贸易的角度,运用协整分析技术和脉冲响应函数法,采用1987～2005年的数据,分析中国与东盟国家进出口贸易对中国经济增长的影响。研究显示:1987～2005年,在中国对东盟国家的出口贸易中,产品总体呈现技术密集程度越高,对中国经济增长促进作用越大的特点。但是,1987～2005年间中国自东盟国家进口的技术密集程度高的产品对我国经济增长却没有显现出明显的促进作用。     

EU Anti‐dumping Measures against ASEAN Countries: Impact on Trade Flows*

In the present paper, anti‐dumping (AD) duties levied by the European Commission against products from ASEAN countries in the period 1991–2001 have been considered. The ASEAN countries were among the countries most targeted by AD measures imposed by the EU in the 1990s. A panel regression has been applied to estimate the impact of AD duties on trade in some 12 products that have been subject to AD duties targeting ASEAN countries in the period considered. A significant negative impact of AD duties is found, on both the value and the quantity of imports from ASEAN countries. Our estimation provides some (although not overwhelming) indications of trade diversion in favor of EU countries, but no evidence of trade diversion in favor of non‐targeted non‐EU countries.     

基于违约成本的银行信贷风险管理

银行贷款的风险管理是关系到整个金融系统稳定的重大问题。本文利用logit方法以及人民银行提供的信贷数据库,根据相关的变量建立模型,并分析了该模型对贷款违约的预测能力。与以前的研究不同,我们的研究着重考虑了违约成本在贷款决策中影响,给予一类、二类错误不同的权重,这样的预测模型能更好地符合银行实际操作的需求。本文的研究也可以作为银行内部风险管理的参考。