对通货膨胀形势的若干看法

本文较为详细地分析预测了2004年以来我国的通货膨胀形势,全文分七个部分:第一部分说明2004年以来我国出现了持续的中度通货膨胀。第二部分说明居民消费价格指数严重低估了我国的通货膨胀程度。第三部分分析了居民消费价格指数暂时不能用来衡量我国通货膨胀程度的理由。第四部分分析了通胀程度被低估的不良后果。第五部分分析了此轮通货膨胀的原因和特征。第六部分对2012年的通胀形势作了分析预测,我们认为2012年通胀压力犹存,但属温和。第七部分提出了一些建议,建议及时实施正常的货币政策,避免经济大起大落。     

Does economic uncertainty affect the soundness of banks? Evidence from emerging Asian economies

This paper examines the impact of economic uncertainty on four dimensions of banking soundness, namely, banks’ loan growth rates, interest rate spreads, capitalization and risk. By using the bank-level panel data of approximately 500 commercial banks in seven emerging Asian economies, we find consistent evidence that increased economic uncertainty decelerates banks’ loan growth, narrows their interest rate spreads and aggravates their risk, but induces banks to increase their capital holdings. Our results are shown to be robust in a series of checks that use alternative indicators of economic uncertainty and econometric methodologies.     

Towards a sustainable growth path

For Japan’s economy, there were two tasks I embraced myself for: “how to return to a sustainable growth path” and “how to rebuild the financial system.” And for the Bank of Japan, there was also the important challenge of navigating our way on a new voyage in line with the principles of the new Bank of Japan Law, which came into effect at almost the same time as I became Governor.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction in the Euro Area with Different Assumptions on the Phillips Curve

In this paper we apply a static version of a New Keynesian macromodel to a monetary union (see Bofinger et al., J Econ Educ, 37:98–117 (2006), Walsh, J Econ Educ, 33:333–346 (2002)). We show in particular that a harmonious functioning of a monetary union critically depends on the correlation of shocks that hit the currency area. Additionally a high degree of integration in product markets is advantageous for the ECB as it prevents national interest rates from driving a wedge between macroeconomic outcomes across member states. In particular small countries are in need for fiscal policy as an independent stabilization agent with room to breath.

美国量化宽松政策对亚太新兴市场国家的影响

量化宽松是美联储在通货紧缩下所采取的一种直接创造货币、扩大央行资产负债表规模的非传统货币政策。量化宽松将给我国等新兴市场国家造成较大的负面效果,建议采取临时性资本管制、针对性量化政策、建立区域货币离岸市场、加快经济结构转型等对策来应对。     

The case for price level or inflation targeting—What happened to monetary policy effectiveness during the Japanese disinflation?

This paper examines whether price level or inflation targeting would have been appropriate policy choices for Japan during its disinflation and deflation period. We employ Markov switching and structural vector autoregressions, together with structural IS equations, to investigate monetary policy effectiveness during the Japanese disinflation. We find evidence of regime switching in the mid-1990s in a model including the nominal policy interest rate. When monetary policy shocks are identified by using the McCallum rule for monetary base, a monetary expansion is found to have a statistically significant impact on prices. Moreover, a lower real ex ante interest rate can still stimulate the economy despite the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.     

不同货币政策工具作用下国债收益率曲线对通货膨胀预测能力分析

本文采用2002年1月至2010年2月我国通货膨胀率月度数据,实证检验了不同货币政策工具作用下,银行间债券市场的国债收益率曲线是否有助于预测通货膨胀率。实证结果表明:当资本市场属性占主导地位时,国债收益率曲线在价格型货币政策工具作用下,对通货膨胀率的预测能力较强;当货币市场属性占主导地位时,国债收益率曲线在数量型货币政策工具作用下,对通货膨胀率的预测能力较强。本文认为造成这种现象的根源是我国银行间债券市场具有货币市场和资本市场双重属性,并且其资本市场属性呈时强时弱的变化态势,导致该市场上占主导地位的市场属性也不稳定,进而出现预测能力随货币政策工具与市场属性匹配程度而改变的情况。     

我国货币政策、通货膨胀和股票价格的相互作用机制研究

在VAR模型的基础上,讨论货币政策、通货膨胀和股票价格之间的相互作用机制。研究表明:①提高利率会使得通货膨胀和股票价格上升,但是与通货膨胀相比,股票价格受影响的程度和时间较短;②股票价格上升能够使通货膨胀小幅上升;③通货膨胀上升使得股票价格下降。     

CAN A RULE‐BASED MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK WORK IN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY? THE CASE OF YEMEN

Monetary policy in Yemen is largely rudimentary and ad hoc in nature. The Central Bank of Yemen's (CBY) approach has been based on discretionary targeting of broad money without any clear target to anchor inflation expectations. This paper argues in favor of a new formal monetary policy framework for Yemen emphasizing a proactive and rule‐based approach with a greater direct focus on price stability in the context of a flexible management of the exchange rate. Although, as in many developing countries, institutional capacity is a concern, adopting a more formal framework could impel the kind of changes that are required to strengthen the ability of the CBY in achieving low and stable rates of inflation over the medium term.     

Euro-Area Inflation: does the Balassa–Samuelson effect matter?

The paper argues that the Balassa–Samuelson effect is of little importance for the inflation target of the ECB. First, econometric tests of the Balassa–Samuelson effect suggest that the most robust link is found between relative sectoral deflators and relative unit labour costs; i.e. a link that accounts for an incomplete wage pass-through. For the (change in the) HICP — the target of the ECB — and its components additional factors seem to cause divergent international and sectoral developments. Second, countries with high productivity growth in industry may experience a real devaluation in the sector of tradable goods which counters the real appreciation resulting from a relative increase in service prices. It follows that the difference in productivity growth and thus the difference in the size of the relative price adjustment between countries does not have unambiguous consequences for the overall inflation rate, and as such can thus not justify an inflation target well above zero.

贸易开放度与通货膨胀:基于社会福利的分析框架

本文在开放经济和价格粘性的模型中,从货币冲击出发,研究贸易开放度与通货膨胀的影响关系,结果表明:未被预期到的扩张性货币冲击会形成通货膨胀缺口,通货膨胀缺口会带来社会福利的增加,政府可以从通货膨胀缺口获得收益.贸易开放度越高,政府从通货膨胀缺口所获得的收益越小,因此政府会采取紧缩的货币政策来降低通货膨胀率.用1978年-2003年中国的数据,通过协整和ECM模型分析发现贸易开放度与通货膨胀率在长期内呈负相关关系,并且贸易开放度是降低通货膨胀率的原因,因此维持协整关系的稳定有利于降低通货膨胀率.     

通货膨胀目标制的实证研究

通货膨胀目标制作为一个货币政策框架已经在很多国家得到实施,总体而言是比较成功的,国外不少学者对通货膨胀目标制的实施状况进行了实证研究,本文从影响一国通货膨胀目标制决策的因素以及支持和反对通货膨胀目标制3个角度对目前的实证研究状况进行概括。     

Fiscal Leadership and Coordination in the EMU

We analyze the role of fiscal-monetary policy interactions and fiscal coordination in EMU under the assumption of strategic wage setting in unionized labour markets. We find that production subsidies and real wage distortions are strategic complements. The literature on macroeconomic stabilisation policies and policy games usually neglects this point and reaches overoptimistic conclusions about the desirable effects of accommodating fiscal policies. Central bank preferences also affect the desirability of fiscal coordination in a monetary union. In fact, contrary to Beetsma and Bovenberg (1998), we find that fiscal coordination improves outcomes in the case of a conservative central banker, whereas it leads to worse outcomes with a populist one.

The origin and diffusion of shocks to regional interest rates in the United States, 1880-2002

This paper is about the behavior of regional interest rates in the United States from 1880 to 2002. The main concern is with the shocks to regional rates. Where did they originate? How did they diffuse? How did the pattern change over time? We show that in the late nineteenth century the main source of shocks to rates on the periphery were shocks originating on the periphery itself. This pattern continued through World War I and the Great Depression. After World War II, however, the importance of disturbances on the periphery diminished and shocks to rates in the Eastern financial centers became the main source of fluctuations in all regions.     

CAN TUNISIA MOVE TO INFLATION TARGETING?

Inflation targeting has become an alternative monetary strategy that has been followed by many industrial and emerging countries. This study considers whether the adoption of inflation targeting would be relevant for Tunisia. More specifically, this paper aims at checking whether the necessary conditions for the successful implementation of such a strategy are fulfilled or not. It is found that fiscal dominance does not constitute the main hindrance to the adoption of inflation targeting. Other impediments have been identified, especially a weak financial system in general, the unsound and fragile banking system in particular, and the glaring lack of knowledge about the monetary transmission mechanism. Furthermore, it has been pointed out that if Tunisian monetary authorities continue to carry out the present exchange rate regime, namely, the constant real exchange rate rule, an inflation targeting regime will not be sufficient to properly contain the inflation pressures caused by demand shocks.     

美国现行宽松货币政策对世界物价的影响——基于不同经济体通货膨胀表现的分析

美国2007年年底开始大幅下调利率,2009年以来又采取了量化宽松的货币政策。与此同时,世界各国,尤其是新兴市场和发展中经济体发生了严重的通货膨胀。虽然美国的宽松货币政策确实提高了2008年以来的通货膨胀率,但是却不能解释新兴市场和发展中经济的通货膨胀普遍高于发达经济体的事实。高通胀的原因仍然在于各国国内的高货币供给。