Bank deposit interest rate pass-through and geographical segmentation in Japanese banking markets

This paper estimates the pass-through from market interest rates to deposit interest rates to investigate whether the Japanese bank deposit markets are geographically segmented. A unique feature of this paper is the use of monthly deposit interest rates posted by 106 regional banks from March 1999 to March 2010. Following the theoretical results from a simple banking activity model with Cournot competition, I estimate the long run pass-through of each regional bank utilizing the panel cointegration method. The empirical results of this paper show a significant negative correlation between regional market concentration and pass-through, which implies the existence of geographical market segmentation.     

当前我国利率与汇率的相关性分析及政策建议

在经济充分开放的国家,利率、汇率与资本流动之间存在不可忽视的紧密联系。利率变化引发套利资本流动,直接导致汇率的升值或贬值,汇率这种变动进而又反过来影响资本流动,影响利率。利率和汇率之间的这种关系被称为利率平价关系。本文采用利率平价模型分析了当前我国利率与汇率的相关性,并对我国的利率与汇率制度改革提出建议。     

Endogenous monetary policy shifts and the term structure: Evidence from Japanese government bond yields

I construct a no-arbitrage term structure model with endogenous regime shifts and apply it to Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. This model subjects the short-term interest rate to monetary regime shifts, specifically a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and normal regimes, which depend on macroeconomic variables. The estimates show that under the ZIRP regime, the effect of deflation (inflation) on lowering (raising) bond yields amplifies on the long end of yield curves, compared with a case with positive interest rates under the normal regime. On the other hand, output gaps’ ability to raise bond yields weakens for all maturities.     

A role model for China? Exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy in Japan

A substantial number of papers have proposed to allow for more exchange rate flexibility of the Chinese yuan. But few papers have tried to project how Chinese monetary policy will behave under flexible exchange rates. As Japan provides an important role model for China, this paper studies the role of the yen/dollar exchange rate for Japanese monetary policy after the shift of Japan from a fixed to a floating exchange rate regime. In contrast to prior studies, we allow for regime shifts in the impact of the exchange rate on monetary policy. The results show that the exchange rate had a substantial impact on Japanese monetary policy in periods of appreciation. This implies that repeated attempts to soften the appreciation pressure by interest rate cuts have led Japan into the liquidity trap. The economic policy conclusion for China is to keep the exchange rate pegged (to the dollar).     

Interest rate causality and asymmetry in the EMS

This paper investigates the hypothesis of an asymmetric EMS under German leadership in the period from 1983 to 1991. The approach adopted was to undertake Granger-causality tests on daily observations of changes in interest rates. For the group of core countries we find that, in recent years, the EMS has operated asymmetrically. This asymmetry has developed over the years and was not evident prior to 1987.     

金融创新对货币政策传导效率的影响——利率与信用管道的比较研究

金融创新使实际投资对利率的敏感程度下降，使金融资产之间替代转换程度提高，交易成本降低，全融资产价格对利率变化的反应程度提高。从而提高了交易效率和速度：其结果是，IS曲线变得更加陡峭，LM曲线变得更加平缓，致使货币政策利率渠道和信用渠道的传导机制和效果减弱，但信用渠道仍具有比较优势。因此金融创新条件下的货币政策执行更应关注银行的改革与证券市场的发展问题，同时为稳定经济，不可盲目快速推进金融创新。     

The effects of capacity reduction policy under the interest rate peg in China

Capacity reduction has been a recurrent theme in China's economic policy. The central government takes various administrative measures to remove excess capacity, accumulated mainly due to underpriced production factors and distorted incentives. I evaluate the de-capacity policy in a series of models and prove that its effects depend critically on its persistence and monetary policy regime. Under an interest rate peg, a transient policy that changes markup temporarily is ineffective and even expansionary, whereas a persistent policy is effective due to a negative wealth effect. A permanent de-capacity policy can lead to over-reactions in macro variables because the interest rate peg adds positive feedback to the economy. Therefore, the de-capacity policy has greater uncertainty under the interest rate peg. As a policy tool, it easily deviates from its target and brings about excessive volatility. However, long-run price stability and a gradually advanced de-capacity policy are conducive to the achievement of policy targets.     

The black dropout rate and the black youth unemployment rate: A Granger-causal analysis

The high unemployment rate of black high school graduates can create the perception that a diploma is of little value and encourage dropping-out of school. Black youth who do drop out are less employable and further push up the black youth unemployment rate. This raises a question: Is the high dropout rate of black youth due to their high unemployment rate or is their high unemployment rate due to their high dropout rate? A study of this question using the definition of Granger-causality finds that it is the high unemployment rate which causes the high dropout rate rather than the opposite.     

关于利率政策与货币政策效力关系的一点思考与探索

利率政策会影响一国货币政策的制定和实施,尤其在开放经济条件下,利率效应在国际间存在传递,加剧了央行制定货币政策的难度。货币政策效力趋于减弱甚至无效。本文从消费、投资两个方面分析了我国利率政策效率低下,货币政策效力不大。在此基础上,提出了如何改善利率政策,进而提高货币政策效力。     

Test of the Response of the Overnight Rate to the Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Korea,Hong Kong,and Singapore

Abstract

For Korea, the overnight rate responds positively to the inflation rate, the output gap, the lagged real exchange rate, and the lagged overnight rate and negatively to the current real exchange rate. For Hong Kong, the overnight rate reacts positively to the inflation rate and the lagged overnight rate and does not react to other variables. For Singapore, the overnight rate is affected positively by the output gap and the lagged overnight rate and is not influenced by other variables. Hence, interest rate rules for some industrialized countries may not apply to Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore.     

Macroeconomic stabilization through monetary and fiscal policy coordination: Implications for European Monetary Union

In a two-country model, we consider the implications of monetary and fiscal policy coordination for macroeconomic stabilization. We show that the optimal regime is one of monetary and fiscal policy coordination under flexible exchange rates. In the context of the European Community, this suggests that the desire to fix exchange rates may not be costless. In addition, we show that fiscal coordination requires a relatively high degree of flexibility in fiscal policy. This result suggests that limits on the flexibility of fiscal policies, as suggested in the Delors Report, may hinder macroeconomic stabilization.     

Interest Rate Pass‐through in Malawi: Implications for the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

This study investigates the interest rate pass‐through in Malawi and its implications on monetary policy effectiveness. Using the cost‐of‐funds approach and monthly data from 2009 to 2015, an autoregressive distributed lag model is fitted. Results show that there is a near complete pass‐through to the lending rate but not the savings rate. The magnitude of the pass‐through is relatively higher under smaller banks. The results suggest that the structure of the banking industry matters. Market power is important in understanding the variation in lending and savings rates across banks. Overall, short‐term rates as operating targets are consistent with inflation targeting in Malawi.     

跨境生产分享与东亚地区一体化:中国的作用

本文考察了跨境生产分享对官方一体化的影响,结论是它促进了单一市场政策的实施,而不利于自由贸易区和关税同盟的建立。此外,市场导向的一体化降低了贸易对汇率变动的敏感度,对各国的汇率政策产生影响。文章还考察了中国在建立包含生产分享的地区一体化中的作用。     

Exchange rate exposure of sectoral returns and volatilities: Evidence from Japanese industrial sectors

Most studies of exchange rate exposure of stock returns do not address three relevant aspects simultaneously. They are, namely: sensitivity of stock returns to exchange rate changes; sensitivity of volatility of stock returns to volatility of changes in foreign exchange market; and the correlation between volatilities of stock returns and exchange rate changes. In this paper, we employ a bivariate GJR-GARCH model to examine all such aspects of exchange rate exposure of sectoral indexes in Japanese industries. Based on a sample data of fourteen sectors, we find significant evidence of exposed returns and its asymmetric conditional volatility of exchange rate exposure. In addition, returns in many sectors are correlated with those of exchange rate changes. We also find support for the “averaged-out exposure and asymmetries” argument. Our findings have direct implications for practitioners in formulating investment decisions and currency hedging strategies.     

Interest rate rules and global determinacy: An alternative to the Taylor principle

A well‐known determinacy condition on interest rate rules is the “Taylor principle,” which states that nominal interest rates should respond more than 100 percent to inflation. Unfortunately, notably because interest rates must be positive, the Taylor principle cannot be satisfied for all interest rates, and as a consequence global determinacy may not prevail even though there exists a locally determinate equilibrium. We propose here a simple alternative to the Taylor principle, which takes the form of a new condition on interest rate rules that ensures global determinacy. An important feature of the policy package is that it does not rely at all on any of the fiscal policies associated with the “fiscal theory of the price level,” which has so far been the main alternative for determinacy.     

Exchange Rate Risk and Interest Rate: A Case Study for Turkey

This paper examines the effect of exchange rate risk on interest rates within the uncovered interest rate parity condition for Turkey. When the interest rate is measured with the Treasury auction interest rate and the exchange rate risk is measured with the conditional variance of the exchange rate, then we found that there is a positive relation between the exchange rate risk and interest rate with the data from December 1986 to January 2001.     

Bank cooperation and banking policy in a monetary union: A political-economy perspective on EMU

Why do large European banks lobby for monetary union? We show in a game-theoretic model that montary union can trigger a change in the structure of the market for international banking transactions with asymmetric effects on profits: large banks are induced to cooperate internationally and gain from European Monetary Union (EMU), while small banks are likely to lose. Monetary union can be interpreted as a device for large banks to push small banks out of the market for cross-border financial services.     

The Bank of Japan's operating procedures and the identification of monetary policy shocks: A reexamination using the Bernanke–Mihov approach

This paper reexamines the operating procedures of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) using the structural VAR approach of Bernanke and Mihov [Measuring Monetary Policy, Quart. J. Econ. 113 (1998) 869–902]. This approach identifies the exogenous components of monetary policy by establishing equilibrium models of the reserve market. In this paper, two equilibrium models are presented: the Implicit Cost (IC) model and the Credit Rationing (CR) model. These particular models are distinguished by opposing views about the BOJ's discount-window borrowing policy. The IC model is characterized by the assumption that the BOJ endogenously accommodates the demand for discount-window borrowing by private banks, whereas the CR model assumes that the BOJ exogenously controls the level of discount-window lending. The results indicate that the CR model is superior to the IC model in describing the operating procedures used by the BOJ up to June 1995. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (3) (2006) 406–433.     

A Comparative Analysis of Export Price Pass-through in Three Open Asian Economies: Korea,Singapore and Thailand

Abstract

The degree of exchange rate pass-through is of paramount importance to small and open economies as it has a direct impact on domestic inflation as well as the effectiveness of exchange rate as an adjustment tool. High exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) is often cited as a reason for a “fear of floating”. This article analyzes the degree of ERPT into the export prices of three Asian economies—Korea, Thailand and Singapore for the period 1980: Q1–2006: Q4 using both US dollar bilateral rates as well as nominal effective exchange rates. The study also examines whether there are asymmetries in ERPT between exchange rate appreciation and depreciation.     

利率市场化、存款保险制度与银行风险承担——基于市场约束的研究

市场约束作为巴塞尔协议Ⅱ三大支柱之一以及衡量金融深化的重要标准，是近年来相关研究的热点之一。而利率市场化等又是提高银行市场约束程度的实质性推动力量。基于此，文章分析了利率市场化进程、存款保险制度与市场约束之间的关系及其对银行风险承担的影响，并藉此评估了存款保险制度实施的政策影响及利率市场化在其中所起的作用。结果发现：（1）我国银行整体的市场约束能显著抑制其风险承担，但分类的结果则表明地方性银行的市场约束效应最明显，大型银行次之，外资银行则不显著；进而，在考虑利率市场化因素之后，除外资银行以外的市场约束效应均有所增强，尤其是，利率市场化对价格约束效应的作用要远强于其对数量约束效应的影响。（2）基于合成控制法的估计结果表明，存款保险制度通过市场约束对地方银行的影响更明显，且存款保险制度通过价格约束对银行风险承担的影响较之其通过数量约束的作用效果要更强。（3）综合而言，存款保险制度会增加利率市场化通过市场约束作用于银行风险承担的正向影响。文章的研究结果显示利率市场化推进以及存款保险制度实施的影响开始趋于明显，并使市场约束机制作用的发挥逐渐与国外相符，但仍然有进一步深化的空间。