Prospects for integration of financial markets in CIS countries

This article deals with macroeconomic preconditions for financial integration and strengthening the role of the ruble in the post-Soviet space. Particular attention is paid to the developmental priorities of stock markets and the interaction of the CIS exchanges. The integration of the financial infrastructure, the implementation of cross-border payments in national currencies, stock market development, and the growth of investment activity in CIS countries are important areas of integration processes and dealing with the crisis.     

Rural financial markets in low-income countries: Recent controversies and lessons

Recently some researchers have criticized traditional agricultural credit policies in low-income countries. This article identifies the major points of controversy between traditional views and these new views and also summarizes the primary lessons learned from these controversies. Savings mobilization, more flexible interest rate policies, less loan targeting, and greater emphasis on improving the quality of financial services in rural areas are new views that are emphasized.     

Estimating time-varying currency betas with contagion: New evidence from developed and emerging financial markets

This paper examines the conditional time-varying currency betas from five developed and six emerging financial markets with contagion and spillover effects. We employ a trivariate asymmetric BEKK-type GARCH-in-Mean (MGARCH-M) approach to estimate the time-varying conditional variance and covariance of returns of stock market index, the world market portfolio and bilateral exchange rate between the US dollar and the local currency. The results show that the world market and currency risks are not only priced in the stock markets, but also time-varying. It is found that currency betas are much more volatile than the world market betas, and currency betas in the emerging markets are more volatile than those in the developed markets. We find empirical evidence of contagion effect and spillovers between stock market and foreign exchange market during the recent global financial crisis, and the effect is stronger in the emerging markets than that in the developed markets. Two applications are provided to illustrate the usefulness of time-varying currency betas.     

发达国家金融监管演变历程与规律研究

本文研究了以英美为代表的发达国家的金融监管史,指出了金融监管和金融创新之间的博弈关系,并对如何完善我国的金融监管体系提出了自己的见解。     

The value of institutions for financial markets: evidence from emerging markets

This paper investigates the value of political institutions for financial markets, using panel data from emerging market countries. We test the hypothesis that changes in political institutions, such as improvements in democratic rights and increased government accountability, have a direct effect on sovereign interest rate spreads. We find that financial markets value institutions over and above the economic and fiscal outcomes these institutions shape. Democracy and accountability generally lower sovereign spreads, political risk tends to increase them, and financial markets view election years negatively.     

高等教育对国家科技创新发展的影响——来自发达国家的经验证据

聚焦探究高等教育在推动国家科技创新发展方面的具体作用，通过对发达国家高等教育发展和科技创新发展的总结性分析以及基于12个国家2005-2018年的面板数据实证研究，考察高等教育对国家科技创新发展的具体影响机制。结果表明：发达国家高等教育赋能科技创新发展主要通过构建UIC（产学合作）联合体、以大学为核心设立科技园和提供科技创新人才资源等方式；发达国家普通高等教育和社区高等教育均对科技创新有显著的正向促进作用；具有硕博学历的毕业生更多成为研发人员，而具有社区本科学历的毕业生更多成为技术人员。基于研究结果，对中国高等教育如何促进科技创新提出具体建议。     

Problems and lessons from irrigation projects in less developed countries of Africa

This paper reviews important constraints to the development of small‐holder irrigation schemes in less developed areas of Africa. It is based on two case studies from Southern Africa and experience elsewhere on the continent. Lessons from past experience and the institutional and human development considerations required for successful projects are discussed.     

Industry characteristics and the competitiveness of manufactures from less developed countries

Zusammenfassung Charakteristika der industriellen Produktion und die Wettbewerbsf?higkeit von Industriewaren aus Entwicklungsl?ndern. — Die Wettbewerbsf?higkeit der Entwicklungsl?nder im Handel mit industriellen Erzeugnissen kann am besten durch ihren Anteil an den Importen der Industriel?nder gemessen werden. Die Wettbewerbsf?higkeit auf den M?rkten der Vereinigten Staaten, Kanadas und anderer OECD-L?nder wird in Beziehung gesetzt zum Durchschnittslohn (negativ), zu Hufbauers Skalen-Ertrags-Variabler (negativ) und zum Standardisie-rungsgrad (positiv). Hufbauers Skalen-Ertrags-Variable wird als ein Maβ für die Zunahme der Kapitalintensit?t mit dem Umfang der Produktion interpretiert, also für eine besondere Art von Nicht-Homothetizit?t der Produktionsfunktion. Konzentration, Unternehmensgr?βe, Alter des Produkts und Werbungs-Variable waren in den gesch?tzten Regressions-Gleichungen nicht in der erwarteten Weise signifikant.

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Résumé Les caractéristiques de l’industrie et la capacité concurrentielle des produits manufacturiers en provenance des pays en voie de développement. — On peut mesurer la capacité concurrentielle des pays en voie de développement concernant le commerce extérieur avec les produits manufacturiers au mieux par leur proportion aux importations des pays développés. On peut mettre la capacité concurrentielle sur les marchés des Etats-Unis, de Canada et des autres pays de l’OCDE en rapport avec le salaire moyen (négativement), avec la variable d’économie d’échelle de Hufbauer (négativement) et avec le degré de standardisation (positivement). Nous interprétons la variable d’économie d’échelle de Hufbauer en mesurant l’étendue de l’intensité de capitaux totale accroissante avec l’échelle, une sorte particulière de nonhomothécité dans la fonction de production. La concentration, l’extension d’entreprise, l’age de produit et les variables publicitaires n’étaient pas consistamment significatives dans les équations de régression estimées.

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Resumen Características industriales y la competitividad de las manufacturas de paises en vias de desarrollo. — La competitividad del comercio de productos manufacturados de países en vías desarrollo se puede medir de la mejor forma por medio de la participación de estos productos en las importaciones de los países desarrollados. La competitividad en los mercados de EEUU, Canadá y los demás países de la OCDE se relaciona con el salario medio (negativamente), con la variable de economía de escala de Hufbauer (negativamente) y con el grado de estandarización (positivamente). La variable de economía de escala de Hufbauer se interpreta como la medición del grado hasta el cual la intensidad de capital aumenta con la escala, un tipo particular de no-homoteticidad en la función de producción. Las variables de concentración, tama?o de la firma, edad del producto y publicidad no eran consistentemente significativas en las ecuaciones de regresión estimadas.

     

Information technology and competitive advantage: Lessons from the developed countries

The paper focuses on developed countries, arguing that when used effectively information technology (IT) brings gains in the form of better product quality, greater flexibility and speed, and first-mover advantage; the cost-reducing impact of IT is of secondary importance. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) experience with IT has been mixed and often disillusioning. OECD nations, with their well-developed technological infrastructures, national computer and telecommunications industries and substantial resources, have failed to develop universal rules for applying IT successfully. The obstacles are managerial and regulatory, not technological. Unpreparedness by companies, regulatory barriers and a lack of standards all tend to inhibit diffusion of IT.     

Public investment and reelection prospects in developed countries

A growing body of literature suggests that office‐motivated politicians manipulate fiscal policy instruments to enhance their reelection prospects. This article directly examines the impact of fiscal policy on incumbents’ reelection prospects by focusing on the impact of public investment. This impact is estimated using a panel of 20 countries belonging in Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development over the period 1972–1999. We find that the level of public investment in the earlier years of an incumbent's term in office improves their reelection prospects, whereas election year manipulation of public investment is neither rewarded nor punished. Our evidence also suggests that, after controlling for the level of deficit and public investment, the level of government revenue both in the election and nonelection years does not seem to affect reelection prospects. Moreover, we find that deficit creation during elections and in nonelection years are not rewarded by voters.     

Trends,cycles and asymmetries in the terms of trade of primary commodities from developed and less developed countries

The paper examines the Prebisch hypothesis that primary product prices relative to the price of manufacturers fall during cyclical downturns by more than they rise during cyclical upturns and that this is an independent explanation of the secular tendency of the net barter terms of trade to move against primary commodities. An important distinction is made between primary products exported by less developed countries and those exported by developed countries. The greater cyclicality of primary product prices, and the long-run deterioration in their terms of trade since 1954 are confirmed, but there is little support for the Prebisch thesis that primary product prices relative to manufacturers are move sensitive on the downswing than the upswing.     

Emerging financial markets and early US growth

Studies of early US growth traditionally emphasize real-sector explanations for an acceleration that is evident by the period 1815-1840. Interestingly, establishment of the nation's modern financial structure predated by three decades the transportation improvements and widespread use of water- and steam-powered machinery that are thought to have triggered modernization. We argue that an innovative and expanding financial system, by providing debt and equity financing to businesses and governments as new technologies emerged, was central to early growth and modernization. To test the hypothesis, we employ a set of multivariate time series models that relate measures of banking and equity market activity to investment and business incorporations from 1790 to 1850. The results support the hypothesis of “finance-led” growth. Our new view is at odds with earlier views that emphasize the deficiencies rather than the advantages of the early US financial system.     

Freedom and management in primary commodity markets: US imports from developing countries

New US data are employed to ascertain the share which intra-firm transactions make up of US primary commodity imports. This share is frequently very high and, for many commodities, well above the average for total US imports. An attempt to explain divergences between intra-firm prices and average prices by differential tax rates and foreign exchange controls yielded only weak results in the cases of bananas, iron ore, rubber and tea but strong ones in that of coffee. Analysis of transfer pricing behaviour is clearly very important in many commodity markets but requires more data than could here be brought to bear.     

The impact on allocation and return to labor and capital of a reduction of customs duties in the developed countries in their trade with less developed countries

Zusammenfassung Die Wirkung einer Zollsenkung in entwickelten L?ndern in ihrem Handel mit weniger entwickelten L?ndern auf die Allokation und die Ertr?ge von Arbeit und Kapital. — Die vorliegende Abhandlung geht von der Annahme aus, da\ die Textil- und Schuhindustrien in den weniger entwickelten L?ndern einen komparativen Vorteil haben, w?hrend die gleichen beiden Industrien in den entwickelten L?ndern einen komparativen Nachteil aufweisen, und da\ daher die Exporte dieser Industrien aus den weniger entwickelten L?ndern gef?rdert werden sollten. Die Auswirkungen einer Abschaffung der Z?lle auf Textilien auf die Ertr?ge von Arbeit und Kapital in diesen Industrien wird für Norwegen gesch?tzt. Die Untersuchung ergibt, da\ die Abschaffung der Z?lle die Ertr?ge von Arbeit und Kapital in den Textil- und Schuhindustrien um 26–27 vH verringern wird. Dies scheinen auch ann?hernd die Wirkungen auf die Ertr?ge von Arbeit und Kapital in den meisten anderen entwickelten L?ndern zu sein.

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Résumé L’effet qu’exerce sur le rendement du travail et du capital une baisse du tarif douanier dans les pays développés en ce qui concerne leur commerce avec des pays moins développés. — Cet article suppose que les industries textiles et des chaussures dans les pays moins développés en ont un avantage comparatif, tandis que les mêmes industries dans les pays développés ont un désavantage comparatif, et que, par conséquent, il faudrait encourager á l’exportation ces deux industries dans les pays moins développés. Ensuite, est estimé pour la Norvège l’effet qu’exercerait sur le rendement du travail et du capital une abolition des tarifs de douane sur les textiles. On arrive á la conclusion qu’une telle abolition ferait baisser de 26 á 27 pour cent le rendement du travail et du capital dans les industries textiles et des chaussures. Il para?t que le même effet se produirait dans la plupart des autres pays développés.

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Resumen El impacto de una reducción arancelaria en paises desarrollados en su comercio con paises menos desarrollados sobre la alocación y los rendimientos del trabajo y del capital. — El présente estudio parte del supuesto, que las industrias textiles y del calzado tienen ventajas comparativas en paises menos desarrollados y desventajas comparativas en paises desarrollados, y que por lo tanto deberfanse fomentar las exportaciones de estas industrias de los pafses menos desarrollados. El autor présenta una estimaci?n para Noruega sobre el efecto que tendria la abolici?n del arancel de productos textiles y del calzado sobre los rendimientos de trabajo y capital. El resultado es que dichos rendimientos se reducirian en un 26 a 27 por 100. Esto équivale mas o menos al impacto que cabria esperar en la mayoria de los demás paises desarrollados.

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Riassunto L’effetto di un abbassamento dei dazi in Paesi sviluppati nel loro commercio con Paesi meno sviluppati sull’allocazione e sui provenu di lavoro e capitale. — II présente articolo parte dall’ipotesi che le industrie tessili e calzaturiere nei Paesi poco sviluppati hanno un comparativo vantaggio, mentre queste due stesse industrie presentano un comparativo svantaggio nei Paesi sviluppati e che perció le esportazioni di queste industrie dovrebbero essere favorite dai Paesi poco sviluppati. Le ripercussioni di un’abolizione dei dazi su tessili sui proventi di lavoro e capitale in queste industrie vengono valutate per la Norvegia. L’indagine dá corne risultato che l’abolizione dei dazi ridurrá del 26–27% i proventi di lavoro e capitale nelle industrie tessili e calzaturiere. Questi sembrano anche essere approssimativamente gli effetti sui proventi di lavoro e capitale nella maggior parte degli altri Paesi sviluppati.

     

Penetration of industrial country markets by agricultural products from developing countries

About 55% of food and about 60% of non-food agricultural exports of the developing countries are sold in industrial country markets. Market access is therefore important.While the developing countries have been able to increase the market penetration of their manufactured exports in industrial countries at a remarkable rate of about 8% in the 1970s, market penetration in agricultural commodities has generally been less successful.From 1970 to 1980 the developing countries were able to increase their market penetration in processed agricultural commodities from 3.5 to 3.7%, which amounts to an average annual increase of only 0.6%. In basic agricultural products like sugar, maize, tomatoes and beef they even incurred losses in their market share that corresponded to an increase in the degree of self-sufficiency (and probably of protective trade barriers) of the industrial countries, in particular the EC.     

The maximin objective function and less developed countries

Conclusions Modifying a traditional optimal growth model by using a maximin objective function and allowing the country to borrow from abroad is a useful process for examining the problems faced by LDC's. For example, an LDC's planners may realize the importance of long-term planning, but, because of the gravity of the country's current situation, be forced to emphasize short-term goals. In the model developed here, the planners' desire to maximize current sustainable consumption precludes the possibility of long-term gorwth. The ability to borrow from abroad eases this dilemma but does not remove it.Extending and complicating this maximin model can provide insights about other issues. In this model, the cost of borrowing function is unchanging. If the function varies because of changes in world demand and supply conditions, the growth path of the LDC could fluctuate even if it were trying to follow a constant consumption program. Similarly, the introduction of technical progress would imply the domestic capital stock would not have to remain constant.This model also points out the ability to borrow from abroad is not a sufficient condition for long-term growth unless the cost of borrowing is continually decreasing. Programs promoting increases in a country's domestic savings are also important.The views presented here are the author's and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. I am indebted to N. Spulber and R. Becker for their suggestions.