Predictable dynamics in implied volatility surfaces from OTC currency options

Recent empirical studies report predictable dynamics in the volatility surfaces that are implied by observed index option prices, such as those prescribed by general equilibrium models. Using an extensive data set from the over-the-counter options market, we document similar predictability in the factors that capture the daily variation of surfaces implied by options on 25 different foreign exchange rates. We proceed to demonstrate that simple vector autoregressive specifications for the factors can help produce accurate out-of-sample forecasts of the systematic component of the surface at short horizons. Profitable delta-hedged positions can be set up based on these forecasts; however, profits disappear when typical transaction costs are taken into account and when trading rules on wide segments of the surface are sought.     

Investor sentiment and interest rate volatility smile: evidence from Eurodollar options markets

This paper studies the extent to which investor sentiment affects the Eurodollar option smile and finds that there is the dynamic interplay between sentiment-driven investors and arbitrageurs. The results reveal a significant relation between investor sentiment and interest rate volatility smile. The significant relations are stronger for put options, for short-maturity options, and for periods with higher uncertainty. The results are robust when considering controlling variables, net buying pressure, different interest rate option models, model-free method, or excluding rational components from the sentiment measures. Our findings favor the limits to arbitrage hypothesis against the positive feedback hypothesis, suggesting that the sentiment effect is transitory. Change in investor sentiment explains the time-varying smile that can be explained neither by rational interest rate models nor by net buying pressure.     

On the seasonality in the implied volatility of electricity options

Seasonality is an important topic in electricity markets, as both supply and demand are dependent on the time of the year. Clearly, the level of prices shows a seasonal behaviour, but not only this. Also, the price fluctuations are typically seasonal. In this paper, we study empirically the implied volatility of options on electricity futures, investigate whether seasonality is present and we aim at quantifying its structure. Although typically futures prices can be well described through multi-factor models including exponentially decreasing components, we do not find evidence of exponential behaviour in our data set. Generally, a simple linear shape reflects the squared volatilities very well as a curve depending on the time to maturity. Moreover, we find that the level of volatility exhibits clear seasonal patterns that depend on the delivery month of the futures. Furthermore, in an out-of-sample analysis we compare the performance of several implementations of seasonality in the one-factor framework.     

The information content of implied volatility, skewness and kurtosis: empirical evidence from long-term CAC 40 options

Implied standard deviation is widely believed to be the best available forecast of the volatility of returns over the remaining contract life (Jorion, 1995 ). In this paper, we take this result two steps further to the higher moments of the distribution (skewness and kurtosis) based on a Gram–Charlier series expansion of the normal distribution (Corrado and Su, 1996 ) using long-term CAC 40 option prices contract, named PXL. First, we found that implied first moments contain a substantial amount of information for future moments of CAC 40 returns although this amount decreases with respect to the moment's order. Secondly, we found that the different shapes of the volatility smile are consistent with different distribution of the underlying returns. Based on these results, we also observed that including other implied moments significantly improves the out-of-sample pricing performance of the Black–Scholes, (1973) model.     

The information content of implied volatilities and model-free volatility expectations: Evidence from options written on individual stocks

We measure the volatility information content of stock options for individual firms using option prices for 149 US firms and the S&P 100 index. We use ARCH and regression models to compare volatility forecasts defined by historical stock returns, at-the-money implied volatilities and model-free volatility expectations for every firm. For 1-day-ahead estimation, a historical ARCH model outperforms both of the volatility estimates extracted from option prices for 36% of the firms, but the option forecasts are nearly always more informative for those firms that have the more actively traded options. When the prediction horizon extends until the expiry date of the options, the option forecasts are more informative than the historical volatility for 85% of the firms. However, at-the-money implied volatilities generally outperform the model-free volatility expectations.     

Determining the implied volatility for American options using the QAM

This paper describes an efficient numerical procedure which may be used to determine implied volatilities for American options using the quadratic approximation method. Simulation results are presented. The procedure usually converges in five or six iterations with extreme accuracy under a wide variety of option market conditions. A comparison of American implied volatilities with European model implied volatilities indicates that significant differences may arise. This suggests that reliance on European model volatilities estimates may lead to significant pricing errors.     

Information content of options trading volume for future volatility: Evidence from the Taiwan options market

This study follows the approach of Ni et al. [Ni, S.X., Pan, J., Poteshman, A.M., 2008. Volatility information trading in the option market. Journal of Finance 63, 1059–1091] – based upon the vega-weighted net demand for volatility – to determine whether volatility information exists within the Taiwan options market. Our empirical results show that foreign institutional investors possess the strongest and most direct volatility information, which is realized by the delta-neutral options/futures trades. In addition, a few individual investors (less than 1% of individuals’ trades) might be informed and realize their volatility information using the strangle strategy. Surprisingly, we find no evidence to support the predictive ability of the volatility demand from straddle trades, despite the widespread acknowledgement that such trades are sensitive to volatility.     

The calm after the storm: implied volatility and future stock index returns

This article explores the predictive power of five implied volatility indices for subsequent returns on the corresponding underlying stock indices from January 2000 through October 2013. Contrary to previous research, very low volatility levels appear to be followed by significantly positive average returns over the next 20, 40 or 60 trading days. Rolling trading simulations show that positive adjusted excess returns can be achieved when long positions in the stock indices are taken on days of very low implied volatility. This may be a hint that market inefficiencies exist in some markets, especially outside the USA. The excess returns measured against a buy and hold benchmark are significant for the German and Japanese market when tested with a bootstrap methodology. The results are robust against a broad spectrum of specifications.     

Market imperfections and the information content of implied and realized volatility

The information content of option implied volatility and realized volatility under market imperfections are studied in the context of GARCH modeling and volatility forecasts of Taiwan stock market (TAIEX) returns. Consistent with most studies, we find that the Taiwan implied volatility index (TVIX) calculated from the TAIEX option prices contains most of the information, and that White's [White, H., 2000. A reality check for data snooping. Econometrica 68, 1097–1126] reality check test cannot reject the null hypothesis that the TVIX provides the best forecast. Possibly due to market imperfections, however, the incremental information content of realized volatility as well as daily returns cannot be ruled out. Finally, we also find that the information is found only in the most recent TVIX, indicating information is being efficiently impounded on the TAIEX option prices. This finding suggests that appropriately designed derivative products can alleviate the problems caused by market imperfections.     

Volatility linkages of the equity,bond and money markets: an implied volatility approach

This study proposes an alternative approach for examining volatility linkages between Standard & Poor's 500, Eurodollar futures and 30 year Treasury Bond futures markets using implied volatility from the three markets. Simple correlation analysis between implied volatilities in the three markets is used to assess market correlations. Spurious correlation effects are considered and controlled for. I find that correlations between implied volatilities in the equity, money and bond markets are positive, strong and robust. Furthermore, I replicate the approach of Fleming, Kirby and Ostdiek (1998) to check the substitutability of the implied volatility approach and find that the results are nearly identical; I conclude that my approach is simple, robust and preferable in practice. I also argue that the results from this paper provide supportive evidence on the information content of implied volatilities in the equity, bond and money markets.     

Accounting quality,information risk and the term structure of implied volatility around earnings announcements

We examine the association between accounting quality, which is used as a proxy for firm information risk, and the behavior of the term structure of implied option volatility around earnings announcements. By employing a large sample of US firms having options traded on their equity during 1996–2010, we find that lower (higher) accounting quality is significantly associated with stronger (weaker) changes in the steepness of the term structure of implied volatility curve around quarterly earnings announcements. This finding (which is robust to controls for business-stemming uncertainty regarding future firm performance) is consistent with a stronger differential of short vs. long-term uncertainty for higher information risk firms, indicating greater uncertainty on the future economic performance of poorer vs. stronger accounting quality firms. We also establish the trading implications of these findings by demonstrating a (profitable in-sample) self-financed option trading strategy that is based on the quality of the accounting information released on earnings announcement days.     

International transmission of information: evidence from the Euroyen and Eurodollar futures markets

This paper examines the information transmission between Japan and the US by using the Tokyo Euroyen and Chicago Eurodollar futures. These two interest rate futures markets provide a better understanding of international information transmission than stock markets, which have been shown to exhibit nonsynchronous trading and market segmentation. The results show that traders in Tokyo (Chicago) use information that is revealed overnight in Chicago (Tokyo). The bivariate EGARCH-t model provides no evidence of volatility spillovers in either direction, suggesting that the opening price rapidly reflects foreign information. The overall results support the hypothesis that the domestic market efficiently adjusts to foreign news. The results are also broadly consistent with the covered interest arbitrage effects.     

Dynamic relations of uncertainty expectations: a conditional assessment of implied volatility indices

This study examines the spillover effects in international financial markets with respect to implied volatility indices. The use of the latter as the basis of integration analysis means that we test market participants’ expectations and not the actual price fluctuations. The empirical analysis, which includes all publicly available implied volatility indices, employs the dynamic conditional correlation model of Engle (2002) and its findings suggest that there is significant integration of investors’ expectations about future uncertainty. Furthermore, by accounting for the dynamic volatility of implied volatility inter-dependencies, we are able to reveal possible shifts in conditional correlations of market expectations over time. More specifically, our findings show a slight increase in the conditional correlations for all the volatility indices under review over the years and prove that in periods of turbulence in the financial markets the conditional correlations across implied volatility indices increase.     

The relationship between implied and realized volatility: evidence from the Australian stock index option market

This paper examines the relationship between the volatility implied in option prices and the subsequently realized volatility by using the S&P/ASX 200 index options (XJO) traded on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) during a period of 5 years. Unlike stock index options such as the S&P 100 index options in the US market, the S&P/ASX 200 index options are traded infrequently and in low volumes, and have a long maturity cycle. Thus an errors-in-variables problem for measurement of implied volatility is more likely to exist. After accounting for this problem by instrumental variable method, it is found that both call and put implied volatilities are superior to historical volatility in forecasting future realized volatility. Moreover, implied call volatility is nearly an unbiased forecast of future volatility.

Towards a new technology future approach

In order to anticipate technological futures of Building Management Systems (BMS), many methods can be identified. However, people often focus on the results of these studies relating to new products. Undoubtedly it is easier to agree on conclusions of a study than on methods used to carry it out. Thus, answering several methodological issues, we develop a new technological future method named ‘CLE’ (complexity, logic, evolution). This one relies on three main ways to answer particularly the problems of complexity of any studied field, inaccuracy and uncertainty of available data, and representation of technological development.CLE leads to the developement of a two-level model. A microscopic level is based on biological metaphors to represent the evolution of populations of products. By a macroscopic approach, we call upon the dynamics of complex systems and fuzzy logic, which gives a representation of the environment of products. Then, the through link with the two levels in a global model simulates the relationships between the environment and the population of products. In order to illustrate this approach, we apply it with the modelization of BMS.     

Mass at zero in the uncorrelated SABR model and implied volatility asymptotics

We study the mass at the origin in the uncorrelated stochastic alpha, beta, rho stochastic volatility model and derive several tractable expressions, in particular when time becomes small or large. As an application—in fact the original motivation for this paper—we derive small-strike expansions for the implied volatility when the maturity becomes short or large. These formulae, by definition arbitrage free, allow us to quantify the impact of the mass at zero on existing implied volatility approximations, and in particular how correct/erroneous these approximations become.     

Expensing stock options: a fair-value approach

Now that companies such as General Electric and Citigroup have accepted the premise that employee stock options are an expense, the debate is shifting from whether to report options on income statements to how to report them. The authors present a new accounting mechanism that maintains the rationale underlying stock option expensing while addressing critics' concerns about measurement error and the lack of reconciliation to actual experience. A procedure they call fair-value expensing adjusts and eventually reconciles cost estimates made at grant date with subsequent changes in the value of the options, and it does so in a way that eliminates forecasting and measurement errors over time. The method captures the chief characteristic of stock option compensation--that employees receive part of their compensation in the form of a contingent claim on the value they are helping to produce. The mechanism involves creating entries on both the asset and equity sides of the balance sheet. On the asset side, companies create a prepaid-compensation account equal to the estimated cost of the options granted; on the owners'-equity side, they create a paid-in capital stock-option account for the same amount. The prepaid-compensation account is then expensed through the income statement, and the stock option account is adjusted on the balance sheet to reflect changes in the estimated fair value of the granted options. The amortization of prepaid compensation is added to the change in the option grant's value to provide the total reported expense of the options grant for the year. At the end of the vesting period, the company uses the fair value of the vested option to make a final adjustment on the income statement to reconcile any difference between that fair value and the total of the amounts already reported.     

Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market

This paper tests the effects of central bank intervention on the ex ante volatility of $/DM and $/yen exchange rates between 1985 and 1991. In contrast to previous research which employed GARCH estimates of conditional volatility, we estimate ex ante volatility using the implied volatilities of currency option prices. We also control for the effects of other macroeconomic announcements. We find little support for the hypothesis that central bank intervention decreases expected exchange rate volatility. Instead, central bank intervention is generally associated with a positive change in ex ante exchange rate volatility, or with no change.     

The relation between implied and realised volatility in the Danish option and equity markets

We show that the conclusions to be drawn concerning the informational efficiency of illiquid options markets depend critically on whether one carefully recognises and appropriately deals with the econometrics of the errors‐in‐variables problem. This paper examines the information content of options on the Danish KFX share index. We consider the relation between the volatility implied in an option's price and the subsequently realised index return volatility. Since these options are traded infrequently and in low volumes, the errors‐in‐variables problem is potentially large. We address the problem directly using instrumental variables techniques. We find that when measurement errors are controlled for, call option prices even in this very illiquid market contain information about future realised volatility over and above the information contained in historical volatility.