On the behavioral differences between professional and amateur investors after the weekend

This paper compares the trading patterns of amateur and professional investors during the days following the weekend. The comparison is based on all the daily transactions of a large sample of both amateurs and professionally managed investors in a major brokerage house in Israel from 1994 to 1998. We find that weekends influence both amateurs and professional investors; however they affect them in opposite directions. Individuals increase both their buy and sell activities, and their propensity to sell rises more than their propensity to buy. Professionals on the other hand tend to perform fewer buy as well as sell trades after the weekend, but unlike individuals, the drop in their activity is almost the same for buy trades and for sell trades.     

Income hedging and portfolio decisions

We examine whether the decision to participate in the stock market and other related portfolio decisions are influenced by income hedging motives. Economic theory predicts that the market participation propensity should increase as the correlation between income growth and stock market returns decreases. Surprisingly, empirical studies find limited support for the income hedging motive. Using a rich, unique Dutch data set and the National Longitudinal Survey of the Youth (NLSY) from the United States, we show that when the income-return correlation is low, individuals exhibit a greater propensity to participate in the market and allocate a larger proportion of their wealth to risky assets. Even when the income risk is high, individuals exhibit a higher propensity to participate in the market when the hedging potential is high. These findings suggest that income hedging is an important determinant of stock market participation and asset allocation decisions.     

The Other January Effect: Evidence against market efficiency?

The Other January Effect (OJE), which suggests positive (negative) equity market returns in January predict positive (negative) returns in the following 11 months of the year, underperforms a simple buy-and-hold strategy before and after risk-adjustment. Even the best modified OJE strategy, which benefits from several ex-post adjustments, does not generate statistically or economically significant excess returns. When the OJE is tested with a method that is consistent with investor experience it is clear the OJE is no more profitable than an 11-month strategy that uses November or December as the conditioning month.     

Dispersion in beliefs among active mutual funds and the cross-section of stock returns

We propose a measure of dispersion in fund managers? beliefs about future stock returns based on their active holdings, i.e., deviations from benchmarks. We find that both the level of and the change in dispersion positively predict subsequent stock returns on a risk-adjusted basis. This effect is particularly pronounced among stocks with high information asymmetry and binding short-sale constraints. These results suggest that a subgroup of informed managers drives up the dispersion in active holdings when they place large bets after receiving positive private information. Binding short-sale constraints, however, prevent them from fully using their negative private information, leading to low dispersion in active holdings.     

INTERNALIZATION AND MARKET QUALITY: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

We explore the relation between market quality and internalization through a pre- and postenactment analysis of the implementation of the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) Price Improvement Rule on October 26, 1998. We find that the rule revision is accompanied by falls in the bid–ask spread and the variance of the pricing error and by rising internalization rates. This study informs proponents of market concentration, brokers, dealers, exchange administrators, and market regulators that a judicious regime of regulated internalization may be associated with superior market effectiveness.     

Are the Best Small Companies the Best Investments?

Previous research finds that large companies previously judged to be excellent growth companies have subsequently been poor investments. We examine small companies selected by Business Week on the basis of multiple criteria used in annual articles featuring highly rated growth companies. We study the investment performance over the three years before eleven annual Business Week publications and the three years after publication. We find positive excess returns in the pre‐publication period, but negative excess returns in the post‐publication period. This reversal in investment performance appears to be due to a mean‐reversion tendency in operating performance, in which the earnings and the past rates of return on capital of such companies subsequently decrease significantly.     

Lending competition and credit availability for new firms: Empirical study with the price cost margin in regional loan markets

In this paper, I present statistical evidence of the impact of lending competition on credit availability for new firms. A discrete-time duration analysis with respect to the years from the start-up to the first loan approval by a commercial bank or a cooperative bank, which is collected from survey data in Japan, shows that the higher price cost margin (PCM) of banks, which reflects the existence of a quasi-rent for a bank, improves the credit availability for younger firms. Additional analysis to detect the regional determinants of the PCM of banks shows that the share of larger banks in each local credit market has a negative and significant impact on the PCM. In light of the existing empirical finding that smaller banks are more likely to provide relationship banking, these findings provide indirect evidence for the hypothesis that the intensity of relationship banking in each local credit market increases the PCM and this encourages banks to extend a loan to new firms so that they can pre-empt the opportunity to establish lending relationships that are expected to yield such quasi-rents.     

News-driven return reversals: Liquidity provision ahead of earnings announcements

This study documents a six-fold increase in short-term return reversals during earnings announcements relative to non-announcement periods. Following prior research, we use reversals as a proxy for expected returns market makers demand for providing liquidity. Our findings highlight significant time-series variation in the magnitude of short-term return reversals and suggest that market makers demand higher expected returns prior to earnings announcements because of increased inventory risks that stem from holding net positions through the release of anticipated earnings news. Collectively, our findings suggest that uncertainty regarding anticipated information events elicits predictable increases in the compensation demanded for providing liquidity and that these increases significantly affect the dynamics and information content of market prices.     

US ADR and Hong Kong H-share discounts of Shanghai-listed firms

This paper examines the differential between the share prices of Chinese securities traded on their home market of Shanghai versus prices observed offshore in New York and Hong Kong. The discounts attached to Chinese securities, whether trading as ADRs on the NYSE or as H-shares on the Hong Kong market, appear to have been significantly influenced by changes in both exchange rate expectations and investor sentiment during 1998–2006. Expected exchange rate changes alone account for approximately 40% of the total variation in each case. This is combined with large cross-sectional variation, however, reflecting additional significant market-wide and company-specific sentiment effects.     

Value, valuation, and the long-run performance of merged firms

We propose an alternative measure of the long-term economic impact of mergers on firm value: post-acquisition changes in intrinsic value. Consistent with the literature on post-acquisition returns, the intrinsic value of merged firms decreases on average in the three years following deal completion, especially for firms with high initial intrinsic values. The loss of intrinsic value is driven primarily by decreases in expected earnings. Finally, using return decompositions, we find evidence that the poor post-acquisition stock returns documented in other studies can be attributed primarily to lost intrinsic value rather than changes in valuation levels.     

The disposition effect and investor experience

We examine whether investing experience can dampen the disposition effect, that is, the fact that investors seem to hold on to their losing stocks to a greater extent than they hold on to their winning stocks. To do so, we devise a computer program that simulates the stock market. We use the program in an experiment with two groups of subjects, namely experienced investors and undergraduate students (the inexperienced investors). As a control procedure, we consider random trade decisions made by robot subjects. We find that though both human subjects show the disposition effect, the more experienced investors are less affected.     

IQ,trading behavior,and performance

We analyze whether IQ influences trading behavior, performance, and transaction costs. The analysis combines equity return, trade, and limit order book data with two decades of scores from an intelligence (IQ) test administered to nearly every Finnish male of draft age. Controlling for a variety of factors, we find that high-IQ investors are less subject to the disposition effect, more aggressive about tax-loss trading, and more likely to supply liquidity when stocks experience a one-month high. High-IQ investors also exhibit superior market timing, stock-picking skill, and trade execution.     

MUTUAL FUND TRADES: ASYMMETRIC LIQUIDITY PREFERENCES AND FUND PERFORMANCE

We investigate the role of the liquidity of stocks traded by mutual funds on the performance of funds experiencing substantial and sustained redemptions (outflows) or inflows. Accordingly, we identify 770 redeeming fund‐periods and 1,757 inflow fund‐periods and find a statistically significant relation between the liquidity of the stocks they trade and the quantity of the stock traded. Notably, when funds experience redemptions, those with low portfolio liquidity have an elevated preference for selling more‐liquid stocks. In the following period, such funds statistically and economically underperform funds that sell less‐liquid stocks. This is consistent with redemptions detrimentally affecting shareholders that remain in a fund.     

MARKET TIMING IN REGRESSIONS AND REALITY

We compare price‐to‐earnings ratios and dividend yields, which are indirect measures of sentiment, with the bullish sentiment index, which is a direct measure. We find that the sentiment index does better as a market‐timing tool than do P/E ratios and dividend yields, but none is very reliable. We do not argue that market timing is impossible. Rather, we observe that stock prices reflect both sentiment and value, both of which are difficult to measure and neither of which is perfectly known in foresight. Successful market timing requires insights into future sentiment and value, insights beyond those that are reflected in widely available measures.     

MOMENTUM: DOES THE DATABASE MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

We examine discrepancies between the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) and Trade and Quote (TAQ) databases by examining the returns of momentum strategies using each database. Momentum portfolios constructed from CRSP prices earn significant profits whereas similar portfolios using TAQ prices show losses. Adjusting TAQ prices with the TAQ dividends file or with the cumulative distribution factor provided by CRSP does not eliminate all differences. There are significant discrepancies in the way CRSP and TAQ record newly listed and delisted stocks. We document the residual (after all filters) price differences between the two databases and provide filters to adjust TAQ data for long sample periods and large sample sizes. Our filtering procedures allow for the possibility of examining intraday patterns in momentum profits.     

Access to information and international portfolio allocation

We examine whether foreign equity holdings of portfolio investors depend on the level of information accessibility between the investors’ home and host countries. Using a comprehensive data set, alternative measures of information accessibility and robust analytical techniques, we show that differences in access to cross-country information significantly influence investors’ portfolio allocation decisions. Furthermore, the results suggest that for a given level of access to information, investors prefer to invest more in countries with a higher quality of legal/macro-institutions. Finally, the findings also confirm that the implications of information accessibility are more pronounced when markets are turbulent.     

DISPOSITION EFFECT AND PUBLIC SECONDARY EQUITY OFFERINGS

Shareholders selling shares in public pure‐secondary equity offerings are affected by the disposition effect and tend to sell past winners. Selling shares in these offerings is associated with significant indirect offer costs. On average, shares are offered at a 5.5% discount from the market price. Moreover, shares of offering firms are about 8% underpriced. Offer discounts and underpricing are positively related to the proxy for the disposition effect. Our findings are consistent with the proposition that the disposition effect increases the supply of winning stocks and depresses their prices.     

THE ECONOMIC GAINS OF TRADING STOCKS AROUND HOLIDAYS

I assess the economic gains of strategies that account for the effect of holiday calendar effects on the daily returns and volatility of the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index. The dynamic strategies use forecasts from stochastic volatility models that distinguish between regular trading days and different types of holidays. More important, I assess the economic value of conditioning on holiday effects and find that a risk-averse investor will pay a high performance fee to switch from a dynamic portfolio strategy that does not account for the effect of holidays on daily conditional expected returns and volatility to a strategy that does. This result is robust to reasonable transaction costs.     

Momentum strategies based on reward–risk stock selection criteria

In this paper, we analyze momentum strategies that are based on reward–risk stock selection criteria in contrast to ordinary momentum strategies based on a cumulative return criterion. Reward–risk stock selection criteria include the standard Sharpe ratio with variance as a risk measure, and alternative reward–risk ratios with the expected shortfall as a risk measure. We investigate momentum strategies using 517 stocks in the S&P 500 universe in the period 1996–2003. Although the cumulative return criterion provides the highest average monthly momentum profits of 1.3% compared to the monthly profit of 0.86% for the best alternative criterion, the alternative ratios provide better risk-adjusted returns measured on an independent risk-adjusted performance measure. We also provide evidence on unique distributional properties of extreme momentum portfolios analyzed within the framework of general non-normal stable Paretian distributions. Specifically, for every stock selection criterion, loser portfolios have the lowest tail index and tail index of winner portfolios is lower than that of middle deciles. The lower tail index is associated with a lower mean strategy. The lowest tail index is obtained for the cumulative return strategy. Given our data-set, these findings indicate that the cumulative return strategy obtains higher profits with the acceptance of higher tail risk, while strategies based on reward–risk criteria obtain better risk-adjusted performance with the acceptance of the lower tail risk.