The age-productivity gradient: Evidence from a sample of F1 drivers

Estimating the effect of aging on productivity requires clean measures of productivity. Additionally, one needs to control for unobserved heterogeneity at the worker, firm and worker/firm level, to account for the role of experience and to correct for selection bias. We tackle these issues exploiting a panel of Gran Prix Formula One drivers, which provides a unique setting to single out the data requirements needed to credibly estimate the effect of age on productivity. Results robust to the inclusion of worker, firm and match effects show that the age-productivity link has an inverted U-shape profile with a peak at the age of 30-32. The use of repeated cross-sections of individuals also produces consistent results provided that cohort effects are properly accounted for. Relying on team-average measures of productivity makes instead inference harder.     

The pervasive absence of compensating differentials

We study the relation between individual preferences for job amenities (e.g., type of work, job security) and compensating wage differentials in cross‐section. To this end, we estimate a partial equilibrium job search model on panel data from eight European countries. There are five non‐wage job characteristics and two sources of job‐to‐job mobility: on‐the‐job search and reallocation shocks. We also allow for two types of unobserved heterogeneity. We find strong preferences for amenities, especially job security, yet, these preferences do not translate into significant wage differentials in cross‐section. Counterfactual experiments show that one would need extremely low levels of search frictions for compensating differentials to arise. Lastly, a similar exercise on the distribution of job change outcomes reveals the role of constrained job‐to‐job mobility in the absence of compensating wage differentials. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Precautionary motives and portfolio decisions

This paper studies the empirical relevance of precautionary and other motives for household portfolio behaviour using recent panel data from the Netherlands. Dutch households' portfolios exhibit low degrees of risk taking and diversification. It is possible that this is the outcome of a rational, precautionary response to unavoidable exposure to background risk (stemming from the labour market or health conditions, etc.). We consider as alternative explanations liquidity needs and habits. The endogenous variable is the fraction of clearly safe in total financial assets at the household level. Parametric and semi‐parametric censored regression models for pooled cross‐sections and random and fixed effects models for panel data show that both heteroscedasticity and unobserved heterogeneity are of major importance in the data. With subjective indicators of income uncertainty we find a limited role for precautionary motives. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Carbon emissions,corporate governance,and staggered boards

Carbon emissions have been identified as a major cause of global warming and are harmful to the environment. Given the seriousness of climate changes, businesses are encouraged to adopt corporate strategies to improve environmental performance. Staggered boards (or classified boards) are one of the controversial corporate governance devices being employed by corporations that protect managers from the market for corporate control. This paper explores whether staggered boards can be a useful business strategy to improve carbon emissions. Relying on a novel data set in which the presence of a staggered board is identified through advanced machine learning algorithms and textual analysis, we find that staggered boards bring about significantly worse emission performance by 10.67%. Our results corroborate the premise that staggered boards insulate self-interested managers from market discipline and thus exacerbate agency problems, resulting in more unfavorable outcomes. Further analysis validates the results, that is, propensity score matching, entropy balancing, instrumental-variable analysis, and generalized method of moments (GMM) dynamic panel data estimation. Importantly, we include firm fixed effects to account for unobserved heterogeneity. Our findings indicate that de-staggered boards may help improve emission performance.     

New Men and New Women? A Comparison of Paid Work Propensities from a Panel Data Perspective

British Household Panel Survey data for waves 1–5 (1991–5) is used to compare paid work participation rates of men and women. Year-on-year persistence in paid work propensities is high, but greater for men than women. Non-work persistence is higher for women. Using panel data probit regression models, we also investigate why men's and women's participation rates differ, comparing the roles of differences in observable characteristics and differences in rates of return to these characteristics, while also controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. Most of the difference in participation rates is accounted for by the differences in returns associated with the presence of children, especially young ones.     

Correcting for bias in retrospective data

When panel data are not available, retrospective data are used in the estimation of dynamic choice models. However, retrospective data are not reliable. Previous studies of voting choices, for example, have shown that respondents misreport their past choices in order to appear more consistent with their current choice. Such retrospective bias leads to inconsistent estimates, especially when there is state dependence in choices. Specifically, observed persistence in retrospective data may be due to (a) true state dependence, (b) unobserved heterogeneity, and (c) retrospective bias in reporting previous choices. Whereas Heckman in his 1981 study deals with (a) and (b), we introduce a method to estimate true state dependence while accounting for both unobserved heterogeneity and retrospective reporting bias. Our method is based on modeling the reporting behavior and integrating it into the estimation. The identification strategy is based on the correlation between the reported previous choices and current exogenous variables. Using data on Israeli voters, we find that the probability that a respondent whose vote intention in 1991 differed from his or her past voting choices would lie about their past choices is 0.23. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

EURO CORPORATE BOND RISK FACTORS

This paper investigates the determinants of credit spread changes in euro‐denominated bonds. We adopt a factor model framework, inspired by the credit risk structural approach, as credit spread changes can be easily viewed as an excess return on corporate bonds over Treasury bonds. We try to assess the relative importance of market and idiosyncratic factors as an explanation of movements in credit spreads. We adopt a heterogeneous panel with a multifactor error model and propose a two‐step estimation procedure, which yields consistent estimates of unobserved factors. The analysis is carried out with a panel of monthly redemption yields on a set of corporate bonds for a time span of 3 years. Our results suggest that the euro corporate market is driven by observable and unobservable factors. The unobservable factors are identified through a consistent estimation of individual and common observable effects. The empirical results suggest that an unobserved common factor has a significant role in explaining the systematic changes in credit spreads. However, in contrast to evidence regarding US credit spread changes, it cannot be identified as a market factor. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determinants and Dynamics of Current Account Reversals: An Empirical Analysis

We use panel probit models with unobserved heterogeneity, state dependence and serially correlated errors in order to analyse the determinants and the dynamics of current account reversals for a panel of developing and emerging countries. The likelihood‐based inference of these models requires high‐dimensional integration for which we use efficient importance sampling. Our results suggest that current account balance, terms of trades, foreign reserves and concessional debt are important determinants of current account reversal. Furthermore, we find strong evidence for serial dependence in the occurrence of reversals. While the likelihood criterion suggest that state dependence and serially correlated errors are essentially observationally equivalent, measures of predictive performance provide support for the hypothesis that the serial dependence is mainly due to serially correlated country‐specific shocks related to local political or macroeconomic events.     

Can risk aversion explain schooling attainments? Evidence from Italy

Using unique Italian panel data, in which individual differences in behavior toward risk are measured from answers to a lottery question, we investigate if (and to what extent) risk aversion can explain differences in schooling attainments. We formulate the schooling decision process as a reduced-form dynamic discrete choice, which we estimate flexibly. We analyze how grade transition from one level to the next varies with preference heterogeneity (risk aversion), parental human capital, socioeconomic variables and persistent unobserved (to the econometrician) heterogeneity. We find that differences in attitudes toward risk account for a modest portion of the probability of entering higher education.     

Attrition in longitudinal panel data and the empirical analysis of dynamic labour market behaviour

In the empirical analysis of unemployment durations and job durations, it is generally assumed that the stochastic processes underlying labour market behaviour and the behaviour concerning participation in a panel survey are independent. However, there are reasons to believe that the probability of dropping out of the panel is related to the rate at which a (different) job is found. If there is such a relation, and if it is ignored, then the estimator of the rate at which individuals become employed or change jobs will generally be inconsistent. In this paper we analyse the relation between the duration spent in a particular labour market state and the duration of panel survey participation, by explicitly modelling and estimating the joint distribution of both durations. The emphasis will be on models allowing for stochastically related unobserved determinants of both types of duration. We estimate models both for unemployment durations and for job durations.     

A Bounded Model of Time Variation in Trend Inflation,Nairu and the Phillips Curve

In this paper, we develop a bivariate unobserved components model for inflation and unemployment. The unobserved components are trend inflation and the non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). Our model also incorporates a time‐varying Phillips curve and time‐varying inflation persistence. What sets this paper apart from the existing literature is that we do not use unbounded random walks for the unobserved components, but rather bounded random walks. For instance, NAIRU is assumed to evolve within bounds. Our empirical work shows the importance of bounding. We find that our bounded bivariate model forecasts better than many alternatives, including a version of our model with unbounded unobserved components. Our model also yields sensible estimates of trend inflation, NAIRU, inflation persistence and the slope of the Phillips curve. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Agricultural productivity,shadow wages and off-farm labor decisions in Nicaragua

The objective of this study is to analyze the decision to work off-farm by male and female farmers in Nicaragua using a three-year unbalanced panel dataset. Shadow income and shadow wages are also estimated. Moreover, to mitigate biases from unobserved individual and farm time-invariant characteristics as well as from sample selection, we apply a semiparametric approach for panel data. Our main findings suggest that shadow wages play a major role in off-farm labor decisions for both males and females. This implies that less labor is allocated to off-farm activities as the opportunity cost for agricultural work goes up. In addition, as the on-farm marginal productivity of households (i.e., shadow income) rises, both males and females reduce the hours they allocate to off-farm activities.     

Employer learning and the returns to schooling

Theoretical models of employer learning suggest that an employee's education is an important signal to the employer initially. Over time, however, the returns to schooling should decrease with labor market experience and increase with initially unobserved ability, since the employer gradually obtains better information on the productivity of an employee. Replicating US studies using a large German panel data set (GSOEP), we find no evidence for the employer learning hypothesis. Differentiating blue-collar and white-collar workers and estimating quantile regressions, however, leads to the conclusion that employer learning takes place for blue-collar workers at the lower end of the wage distribution.     

Hard Times or Great Expectations? Dividend Omissions and Dividend Cuts by UK Firms*

This paper uncovers an increasing proportion of quoted UK companies omitting cash dividends. Using a large panel of quoted UK firms, we estimate panel data probit models for the incidence of dividend omissions and cuts as functions of financial characteristics including cash flow, leverage, investment opportunities, investment and company size. These variables account for most of the increase in omission since 1995. There is relatively little evidence to link this to the major tax reform of 1997 that abolished tax refunds on dividend income payable to tax‐exempt institutions. Significant persistence effects indicate companies are slow to adjust their balance sheets through their dividend.     

A two-step approach to account for unobserved spatial heterogeneity

A two-step approach to account for unobserved spatial heterogeneity. Spatial Economic Analysis. Empirical analysis in economics often faces the difficulty that the data are correlated and heterogeneous in some unknown form. Spatial econometric models have been widely used to account for dependence structures, but the problem of directly dealing with unobserved spatial heterogeneity has been largely unexplored. The problem can be serious particularly if we have no prior information justified by economic theory. In this paper we propose a two-step procedure to identify endogenously spatial regimes in the first step and to account for spatial dependence in the second step. This procedure is applied to hedonic house price analysis.     

Cultural Diversity and Cultural Distance as Choice Determinants of Migration Destination

This study analyses the impact of cultural composition on regional attractiveness from the perspective of international migrant sorting behaviour on a European regional NUTS1 level. We use an attitudinal survey to quantify cultural distances between natives and immigrants in the region concerned, and estimate the migrants’ varying preferences for both cultural diversity and cultural distance. To account for regional unobserved heterogeneity, our econometric analysis employs artificial instrumental variables, as developed by Bayer et al., [2004a. An equilibrium model of sorting in an urban housing market. NBER no. 10865]. The main conclusions are twofold. On the one hand, cultural diversity increases regional attractiveness. On the other hand, average cultural distance greatly weakens regional attractiveness.     

Bayes estimates of distance‐to‐market: transactions costs,cooperatives and milk‐market development in the Ethiopian highlands

Rationalizing non‐participation as a resource deficiency in the household, this paper identifies strategies for milk‐market development in the Ethiopian highlands. The additional amounts of covariates required for positive marketable surplus—‘distances‐to market’—are computed from a model in which production and sales are correlated; sales are left‐censored at some unobserved threshold; production efficiencies are heterogeneous; and the data are in the form of a panel. Incorporating these features into the modeling exercise is important because they are fundamental to the data‐generating environment. There are four reasons. First, because production and sales decisions are enacted within the same household, both decisions are affected by the same exogenous shocks, and production and sales are therefore likely to be correlated. Second, because selling involves time and time is arguably the most important resource available to a subsistence household, the minimum sales amount is not zero but, rather, some unobserved threshold that lies beyond zero. Third, the potential existence of heterogeneous abilities in management, ones that lie latent from the econometrician's perspective, suggest that production efficiencies should be permitted to vary across households. Fourth, we observe a single set of households during multiple visits in a single production year. The results convey clearly that institutional and production innovations alone are insufficient to encourage participation. Market‐precipitating innovation requires complementary inputs, especially improvements in human capital and reductions in risk. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Heterogeneity in Labour Supply Responses: Evidence from a Major Tax Reform

We use a large and rich administrative household panel data set to estimate labour supply responses for a large number of subgroups in the Netherlands. The identification of the parameters benefits from a major tax reform in the data period. We uncover large differences in behavioural responses. In particular, we find differences in labour supply responses between households with and without children that are much bigger than suggested by previous studies that had to pool these household types in the estimation of preferences. An efficient tax‐benefit system should take the substantial heterogeneity in behavioural responses into account.     

Measuring quality in international trade

Product quality plays a vital role in international trade flows, but the measurement of quality remains to be a challenge because true quality is usually unobserved in trade data. In this study, we propose a straightforward measurement of quality—the weighted-income index—and compare it with the unit-value proxy in a microeconomic model with quality choice. Then we compare the two measurements in the automobile industry. The empirical result shows that the weighted-income quality index performs better than the unit-value quality proxy in ranking true quality.     

Durations in Panel Data Subject to Attrition: A Note on Estimation in the Case of a Stock Sample1

In the empirical analysis of unemployment durations or job durations, it is generally assumed that the stochastic processes underlying labour market behaviour and the behaviour concerning participation in a panel survey are independent. As a consequence, spells that are incomplete due to attrition can be treated as spells that are subjected to independent right censoring. However, if the assumption of independence is violated, i.e. if for example the probability of dropping out of the panel is related to the rate at which a job is found, then attrition may have to be modelled and estimated jointly with the unemployment duration distribution to avoid biased estimates of the rate at which individuals become employed. A way to model the joint dependence is by means of stochastically related unobserved determinants. We discuss some properties of these kinds of models and state conditions needed to estimate such models in the case of stock sampled duration data.