On the role of labor supply for the optimal size of Social Security

The paper studies the welfare effects of a Social Security system in a stylized overlapping generations economy with random production and capital accumulation. Different welfare concepts including long run optimality, social optimality, and time consistency are employed to determine the optimal size of the system. When labor supply is exogenous, a unique contribution level can be identified which is optimal according to all three concepts. When labor supply is endogenous, however, this result generically fails to hold and the long-run optimal solution is only constrained socially optimal while the time-consistent policy may even lead to an inefficient equilibrium.     

转型期失业保障制度的博弈分析

社会保障的问题历来是倍受争议的问题,存在着很多重大分歧。有一些博弈论专家曾经用博弈模型来讨论社会福利的问题,著名的社会福利博弈模型就是一个很好的例子。通过研究原始的社会福利博弈模型,我们可以得到一个结论就是:一个社会的福利水平越高会导致失业水平越高。在西方“福利型”社会中这已是一个被广为接受的观点,对此国内也有很多学者持相同意见。然而我国毕竟还不属于“福利型”社会,目前我国的社会保障制度也不够完善;另外,我国的失业工人中有相当一部分属“非自愿失业”。这些种种原因决定了在我国这样的社会,不能不加取舍得引用西方社会的理论来构建我们的社会保障制度。因此,我们只有修正原始的社会福利博弈模型,使其适用于处于经济转型期的社会。     

Labor supply and the optimality of Social Security

Traditional economic theory predicts that an unfunded public pension system can be justified on the basis of its ability to provide intergenerational transfers, and also for its ability to provide partial insurance against mortality and labor income risks. In this paper, I demonstrate that the quantitative importance of these traditional roles depends on how the pension system distorts households' labor supply decisions. Using a general-equilibrium life-cycle consumption model calibrated to the U.S. economy, I show that these distortions can be large enough to erase much of the traditional welfare gains from Social Security. I also find that this fact is robust within the range of labor supply elasticities usually encountered in the macroeconomic literature.     

社保基金审计监管体制构建

在老龄化的人口结构下,社保基金的安全、完整和合规运作显得尤为重要,关系到整个社会的稳定发展,关系到广大人民生活安定与否。本文就老龄化社会背景下,如何加强社保基金监管,提出了建立以国家审计为主导、以内部审计为基础、以社会审计为辅助的审计监管机制,加强对社保基金的管理监督。     

Social security and two-earner households

In the past decades, elimination of the pay-as-you-go system in U.S. has been extensively discussed and studied. Such an elimination would also eliminate the intragenerational redistribution done by the following policies of social security. Due to spousal and survivor׳s benefit provisions, US Social Security system redistributes (mostly) to single-earner married households. Since retirement benefits are a concave function of past mean earnings, the system redistributes from high earners to low earners. Finally, existence of a cap on social security taxable earnings makes the system regressive. This paper quantifies redistributive, labor supply, and welfare implications of these policies using a general equilibrium life-cycle model. Agents start out as permanently married or single and with education levels and wage profiles, where the latter depend both on education and gender. The household is the decision maker and decides on labor supply of its member(s) and saving. Elimination of these policies results in a 5.5% rise in labor force participation of married females, while increasing aggregate welfare by 0.4%. A majority of households experience positive gains in welfare. Single-earner married households incur large welfare losses (as big as 1.1%), whereas two-earner households with high skilled spouses experience substantial welfare gains (as big as 1.9%).     

An evaluation of the life cycle effects of minimum pensions on retirement behavior

In this paper we explore the effects of the minimum pension program on welfare and retirement in Spain. This is done with a stylized life cycle model which provides a convenient analytical characterization of optimal behavior. We use data from the Spanish Social Security to estimate the behavioral parameters of the model and then simulate the changes induced by the minimum pension in aggregate retirement patterns. The impact is substantial: there is a threefold increase in retirement at 60 (the age of first entitlement) with respect to the economy without minimum pensions, and total early retirement (before or at 60) is almost 50% larger. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The quantitative and qualitative evolution of the social security research

This article examines the evolution of social security research from a theoretical and empirical perspective. This is done through an extensive review and analysis of publications from the Journal of International Social Security Review published by Wiley within a 50-year period (1967–2017). It was observed that at a different period in time, the social security research focused on different national and international issues that invoked different social welfare programs and pension systems approach (public or private) to facilitate the explanation of its final socio-economic impact into different social groups in the same country or region respectively.     

The costs of suboptimal dynamic asset allocation: General results and applications to interest rate risk, stock volatility risk, and growth/value tilts

The recent theoretical asset allocation literature has derived optimal dynamic investment strategies in various advanced models of asset returns. But how sensitive is investor welfare to deviations from the theoretically optimal strategy? Will unsophisticated investors do almost as well as sophisticated investors? This paper develops a general theoretical framework for answering such questions and applies it to three specific models of interest rate risk, stochastic stock volatility, and mean reversion and growth/value tilts of stock portfolios. Among other things, we find that growth/value tilts are highly valuable, but the hedging of time-varying stock risk premia is less important.     

Social dumping and relocation: is there a case for imposing a social clause?

Public opinion in Europe seems worried about the relocation of production plants toward low wage countries often accused of practicing ‘social dumping’. To reduce the incentives for relocation trade unions proposed the adoption of ‘social clauses’ protecting domestic markets from commodities produced in countries where minimal labor condition are not met. We analyze the effects of the adoption of a social clause in a vertically differentiated Bertrand duopoly. We assess how such a policy affects firms’ relocation decisions in order to be able to assess its welfare implications. We also characterize the optimal social clause policy, both under domestic welfare maximization, and from an efficiency point of view. While we show that a social clause policy cannot be dismissed on domestic (or world) welfare grounds, its case is weaker the higher is the domestic wage and the lower is the foreign wage.     

Lessons from the Snowy Slope: Vision and Politics in American Social Insurance

The enactment of social insurance, a fundamental departure from means‐tested welfare programs, was born out of the crisis of the Great Depression. Policy options to strengthen Social Security are mathematically simple, but ideologically contentious. Arguments against the program, remarkably consistent since its inception, have been gaining traction in the current political climate. As the debate proceeds, it is useful to examine the history of opposition and review the case for universal social insurance.     

Social Security and elderly labor supply: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study

This study uses panel data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to estimate the effects of Social Security income on elderly labor supply in the 1990s and early 2000s. The identification strategy takes advantage of the 1977 amendments to the Social Security Act, which led to a large, unanticipated reduction in Social Security benefits for those born after January 1, 1917. Despite the advanced age of the notch cohorts, there is a significant, negative and surprisingly elastic relationship between Social Security income and hours of work. This suggests that currently proposed reductions in benefits would induce Social Security recipients to work more hours in retirement, even through their 70s and early 80s.     

An applied stochastic model of the quality–quantity trade-off in the public health care sector

It is a striking feature of the many of the developing country public service sectors that the sectors in question often overproduce the quantity of services but underproduce the quality. This feature, which is exemplified in this paper, is rooted in a wide spectrum of economic and sociological factors ranging from the economic and sociological profile of the service receiving people to the asymmetric density of service-receiving population across their regions. This feature, we conjecture, is a source of a considerable degree of suboptimality in some of the developing countries. If our conjecture is correct, correcting such suboptimalities is likely to yield significant welfare improvements that could help speed up the process of development in the underdeveloped regions of the world. To analyze the supoopimalites in question, we will first develop a concept (and a model) of optimal quality in the public service sector, which indicates the level of quality that maximizes expected public satisfaction subject to available resources. Resources are used in an efficient manner to produce the service in question. The concept and the model in the paper make a needed contribution to the quality discourse by presenting a way of determining the quality improvements (or adjustments) necessary to achieve optimum in the public service sector. The paper presents an application (a case study) of this new concept in the public healthcare sector in Turkey, and explores the differences between the actual and optimal quality in the sector in question. It turns out that there is a considerable difference between the actual and optimal levels of quality (as well as those of quantity) in the Turkish public healthcare sector in an overpopulated city (Istanbul), indicating a significant overproduction of quantity and underproduction of quality. Thus, to achieve the optimal levels, the sector should increase quality and reduce quantity by a considerable margin. The quantified differences (gaps) between actual and optimal levels point out a considerable room for welfare improvement. Optimum-seeking adjustments closing these gaps could be shown to lead to considerable satisfaction and welfare gains, the measurement of which is worthy of future research.     

How beneficial was the Great Moderation after all?

This paper computes the welfare effect of the Great Moderation, using a representative-agent consumption-based asset pricing model. The Great Moderation is modeled according to the data properties of consumption and dividend growth rates, which display a reduction of their innovation-volatility and increased persistence: the latter is a characteristic that has been largely unaddressed in the literature. The theoretical model (a long-run risk model) is calibrated to match average asset pricing variables, as well as consumption and dividend dynamics before and during the Great Moderation. The model captures the relevant features of the Great Moderation (decreased variance, increased persistence, asset prices). It predicts only a modest welfare gain from Great Moderation (0.38 percent in consumption equivalent), due mainly to the utility cost of a late uncertainty resolution.     

Adverse selection and costly information acquisition in asset markets

We develop an asset exchange model with adverse selection and costly information acquisition incentives. A seller of an asset knows the true value of the asset, while a buyer can obtain information about the asset’s quality at a cost. An equilibrium offer is pooling, but a buyer can purchase only good assets after producing the costly information about the asset’s quality. When the probability that the seller holds good assets is above the threshold value, a trade can occur with and without information acquisition, depending on the information acquisition cost, and the trade volume and social welfare are higher in equilibrium without information production than in equilibrium with information production. When the probability of facing good assets is below the threshold value, a trade occurs only after screening the quality of assets, and, hence, the market collapses if the information acquisition cost is sufficiently high. As the information acquisition cost increases, social welfare can increase or decrease depending on the probability of facing good and bad assets.     

Optimal nested row-column designs for blocks of size 2×2 under dependence

This paper examines nested 2 ×2 row-column designs when within-block observations are assumed to be dependent. The model considered has fixed block effects, which may also include row and/or column effects. Optimal binary and non-binary designs, constructed from semi-balanced arrays, are given under both generalised and ordinary least squares estimation. It is shown that binary designs are optimal when dependence is low. In general, however, the optimal designs are highly specific to the correlation values. Received: October 1999     

论瑞典社会民主党构建和谐社会的探索

瑞典式社会主义和谐社会经历了诞生、发展到成熟的过程。1932年秋社民党通过竞选上台执政,开始功能社会主义福利国家的尝试；1944-1975年是和谐国家建设的全面展开和建成；1982-1990年“保卫福利、重振经济”和谐政策的调整；1990-2000年建设自由与平等基础上相互关联的社会共同体；以2001年1 1月社民党第34次全国代表大会为起点,重建民主的人道的更加和谐的社会主义福利国家。     

生产要素选择与社会福利关系的研究

通常企业偏爱价格低的生产要素，因为低价生产要素更加有助于企业实现生产成本最小化。但是，企业的生产不仅产生企业私人收益而且也可能带来外部不经济，这些都会影响社会福利的增长。为此，我们通过构建价格函数以及相应的社会福利函数，导出兼顾企业收益和环保收益的要素价格及生产能力，并最终归纳出生产要素的四种模式，希望能为政府决策提供参考。     

More optimal designs for diallel cross experiments

It is shown that the complement of a universally optimal design derivable from a triangular design is again universally optimal in a class of connected designs. Furthermore, some series of universally optimal designs for diallel cross experiments are provided. These observations strengthen the result on universally optimal designs by Das, Dey and Dean (1998). Received: August 1999     

Universal Pareto dominance and welfare for plausible utility functions

We study Pareto efficiency in a setting that involves two kinds of uncertainty: Uncertainty over the possible outcomes is modeled using lotteries whereas uncertainty over the agents’ preferences over lotteries is modeled using sets of plausible utility functions. A lottery is universally Pareto undominated if there is no other lottery that Pareto dominates it for all plausible utility functions. We show that, under fairly general conditions, a lottery is universally Pareto undominated iff it is Pareto efficient for some vector of plausible utility functions, which in turn is equivalent to affine welfare maximization for this vector. In contrast to previous work on linear utility functions, we use the significantly more general framework of skew-symmetric bilinear (SSB) utility functions as introduced by Fishburn (1982). Our main theorem generalizes a theorem by Carroll (2010) and implies the ordinal efficiency welfare theorem. We discuss three natural classes of plausible utility functions, which lead to three notions of ordinal efficiency, including stochastic dominance efficiency, and conclude with a detailed investigation of the geometric and computational properties of these notions.     

对经济与技术发展过程中收入调节问题的新探讨

发展方式转变的基础是技术进步。技术进步的结果是新产品产业的出现和传统产业的技术改造与升级。为了保持社会总供求平衡和促进新产品产业的发展，政府干预社会工资水平的调整成为经济社会平稳发展所必不可少的重要环节。传统产业的技术进步，将直接降低产品成本和销售价格，从而也必将增加社会居民的消费福利。社会工资收入水平应随着本国产业结构的发展与完善而不断进行调整，使居民的消费结构和消费福利随之不断完善和提高。