The option market’s anticipation of information content in earnings announcements

We exploit information in option prices in order to study whether the ex post responsiveness of stock prices to earnings information is reflected from an ex ante, firm- and quarter-specific perspective. Specifically, we develop a measure of anticipated information content (AIC) that isolates the forecasted magnitude of the stock market’s reaction to earnings information. We find that the AIC positively correlates with the ex post magnitude of the stock market sensitivity to unexpected earnings, increases with earnings persistence, firm growth prospects, the richness of firms’ information environments and the presence of (and changes in) sophisticated ownership, and decreases with discount rates. Our paper sheds light on the role that earnings information plays in shaping option-market behavior and offers researchers an option-market approach to studying the responsiveness of stock prices to earnings information.     

Are active fund managers collectors of private information or fast interpreters of public information?

Recent studies of fund manager performance find evidence of outperformance. However limited research exists as to whether such outperformance is because of privately collected information, or merely expedient interpretation of publicly released information. In this study, we examine the trade sequences of active Australian equity fund managers around earnings announcements to provide insights into the source of fund managers’ superior information. We document an increased occurrence of buy‐sell trade sequences around good‐news earnings announcements. The evidence is consistent with fund managers having both private information about forthcoming good‐news earnings announcements and being ‘short‐term profiteers’. We find no evidence that fund managers have private information about forthcoming bad‐news earnings announcements. However, we do find an increase in the frequency of fund managers not trading before bad‐news earnings announcements only to subsequently sell during announcements.     

Discussion of: The option market’s anticipation of information content in earnings announcements

Billings and Jennings (2011) develop a new measure of stock price sensitivity to earnings called anticipated information content (AIC). The main difference between an AIC and an earnings response coefficient (ERC) is that AICs measure expected rather than actual sensitivity. I evaluate the AIC’s potential usefulness in future research, and conclude that AICs have several disadvantages relative to ERCs but might be useful in rare circumstances. Estimates of AICs contain considerable measurement error and fail a primary test of construct validity when left uncorrected. I outline a method for correcting two of the three sources of measurement error, which can be used by researchers interested in pursuing work on AICs. The method may have uses beyond computing AICs because it yields a prediction of the unsigned change in stock price during a scheduled event window.     

Keep on smiling? The pricing of Quanto options when all covariances are stochastic

The paper introduces a model for the joint dynamics of asset prices which can capture both a stochastic correlation between stock returns as well as between stock returns and volatilities (stochastic leverage). By relying on two factors for stochastic volatility, the model allows for stochastic leverage and is thus able to explain time-varying slopes of the smiles. The use of Wishart processes for the covariance matrix of returns enables the model to also capture stochastic correlations between the assets. Our model offers an integrated pricing approach for both Quanto and plain-vanilla options on the stock as well as the foreign exchange rate. We derive semi-closed form solutions for option prices and analyze the impact of state variables. Quanto options offer a significant exposure to the stochastic covariance between stock prices and exchange rates. In contrast to standard models, the smile of stock options, the smile of currency options, and the price differences between Quanto options and plain-vanilla options can change independently of each other.     

Are good financial advisors really good? The performance of investment banks in the M&;A market

The study examines whether prestigious investment banks deliver quality gains to their clients in a sample of 6,379 US M&A deals. It finds that acquirers advised by tier-one advisors lost more than $42 billion, whereas those advised by tier-two advisors gained $42 billion, whereas those advised by tier-two advisors gained 13.5 billion at the merger announcement. The results were mainly driven by the large loss deals advised by tier-one advisors. The evidence indicates that investment banks might have different incentives when they advise on large deals vs. small deals. The results imply that market share based reputation league tables, could be misleading and therefore, the selection of investment banks should be based on their track record in generating gains to their clients. The findings were consistent with the superior deal hypothesis as tier-one target advisors outperformed tier-two advisors and the existence of a prestigious advisor on at least one side of an M&A transaction resulted in higher wealth gains to the combined entity. Target advisors were able to extract more wealth gains for their clients, which led to higher combined gains at the expense of the acquirer.     

What’s in the news? The ambiguity of the information content of index reconstitutions in Germany

We analyze stock price behavior around reconstitutions of the German DAX index family from 1990 to 2013. The strong price run-up of added stocks in the 2 months preceding the announcement date remains robust until 2 months after the effective date (ED), and is fully reversed 5 months later. Conversely, stock prices of deleted firms are under pressure until 10 months after the ED. Unlike most previous studies, we find that outright entries and exits have temporary price effects, as do additions to and deletions from better-known indices; however, promotions and demotions related to lesser-known indices command permanent stock price responses. Rather surprisingly, deleted stocks consistently earn higher abnormal returns than added stocks in the 5-year post-event period. Specifically, the return differential levels out at 77.3%. We establish that this differential in permanent stock prices is attributable to differences in operating performance and media coverage. In practice, index reconstitutions do not appear to give unambiguous signals about the long-run investment appeal of affected firms. However, index fund managers not constrained by tracking error minimization would be better off holding deleted stocks for 5 years after the ED.     

Trust no more? The impact of the crisis on citizens’ trust in central banks

Citizens’ trust in economic institutions has generally declined since the onset of the crisis. In particular, Eurobarometer surveys show that trust in the European Central Bank (ECB) has fallen significantly during the crisis. This paper studies the determinants of public trust in the ECB over the lifetime of the euro. Net trust in the ECB has decreased significantly in those countries which have experienced increasing sovereign bond yields and financial market turbulence. The finding that country-specific variables affect citizens’ trust in the ECB may seem counterintuitive. However, it is consistent with strong evidence in the political science literature showing that domestic considerations play a significant role when citizens get an opportunity to express their opinion on EU matters.     

The ‘Wild Cards’ of European futures: Planning for discontinuities?

The use of Wild Cards has been extensively developed in the corporate world, particularly by companies dealing with strategic commodities in global markets, i.e., the nexus between warfare, oil, and energy use. One of the purposes of Wild Cards is to test the ability of a system - usually a large organisation - to react to unforeseen but high-impact events. The work presented in this article was undertaken in the context of the project on ‘Spatial Scenarios’ for the European Spatial Planning Observation Network (ESPON) Programme. In this project, four Wild Cards were introduced: “an era of energy scarcity”, “the demise of Europe's social security system”, “the gulf stream stops”, and “the dollar goes down the drain”. These Wild Cards were introduced to investigate how external events may have asymmetric impacts across the European territory, to include some reflections on themes that were not included in the integrated scenarios, and to raise awareness of the fact that today's policy choices have to be evaluated not only in the light of current policy goals but also in the light of possible, sometimes dramatic, future events. In this way the Wild Cards helped to highlight the potential impact of external events on the territorial development of Europe and their particular impact on the internal disparities between the regions.     

The market for credit default swaps: new insights into investors' use of accounting information?

The market for credit default swaps has developed into a well‐functioning, global multi‐trillion dollar market, wherein investors price and transfer corporate financial instruments on the basis of credit risk. This paper first summarizes the structure and growth of the market. Next, I introduce theory and evidence on how investors price credits risk and explain how the quality of financial statement information plays a unique role in the determination of credit spread. I then review the nascent empirical accounting literature on this topic. This review sheds light on several accounting research questions that might be understood better in the setting of the credit default swap market. The final section summarizes suggestions for future work.     

Are New Tigers supplanting Old Mammoths in China’s banking system? Evidence from a sample of city commercial banks

“New Tigers” (including city commercial banks) outperform state-owned commercial banks burdened with non-performing loans from unprofitable state-owned enterprises. We study whether this is solely due to superior corporate governance (multiple shareholders versus total government ownership) or also to the favorable environment (the New Tigers target affluent China, while state-owned commercial banks operate nationwide).     

What do premiums paid for bank M&As reflect? The case of the European Union

We analyze the takeover premiums paid for a sample of domestic and cross-border bank takeovers in the European Union between 1997 and 2007. We find that acquiring banks value profitable, high-growth and low risk targets. We also find that the strength of bank regulation and supervision as well as deposit insurance regimes in Europe have measurable effects on takeover pricing. Stricter bank regulatory regimes and stronger deposit insurance schemes lower the takeover premiums paid by acquiring banks. This result, presumably in anticipation of higher compliance costs, is driven by domestic deals. Similar qualitative results are found for both the entire sample and the sample of publicly traded targets.     

For whom (and for when) is the firm governed? The effect of changes in corporate fiduciary duties on tax strategies and earnings management

The proper object of the fiduciary duties of corporate directors and officers is frequently described as the central question in all corporate law. We use the adoption of constituency statutes, which shift the loci of corporate managers' duties from shareholders to a wide range of stakeholders, as a quasi-natural experiment to determine the actual impact of fiduciary duties. We find that though the adoption of constituency statutes has no significant effect on measures of earnings management, it has a robust effect on firms' effective tax rate, which increases in a range between 0.570% and 1.903%. These results are robust in terms of various measures of the firm's effective tax rate. We provide explanations for why fiduciary duties apparently do not influence manager behaviours in relation to shareholders but do affect their behaviours in relation to the taxing authority. We argue that a change to fiduciary duties does not appear to alter the motivation of managers to maximize shareholder welfare outcomes, but rather it allows them to eschew short-term strategies that often impair long-term outcomes.     

The Use of Noncourt‐Based Corporate Rescue: Does the Australian Voluntary Administration Procedure Provide a Model for China?

In the recent international history of insolvency law reform, the reform of corporate rescue and restructuring has been an ongoing project. In China, the enactment of the Enterprise Bankruptcy Law 2006 saw the introduction of a bankruptcy reorganisation procedure that incorporates the debtor‐in‐possession model found in Chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy Code. However, the Chinese corporate rescue procedure has been significantly underused due in part to various drawbacks associated with this court‐based and highly politicalised process. This paper explores the possibility of reforming China's current corporate rescue regime by drawing upon the Australian voluntary administration procedure. Found in Part 5.3A of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth), this procedure was designed to provide a relatively swift, inexpensive and flexible corporate rescue mechanism for companies in financial distress. It comprises a noncourt based mechanism under the control of one or more professionally qualified private administrators. It is interesting to note that the UK also moved away from exclusive reliance upon court‐based administration procedures following the passage of the Enterprise Act 2002. This moved the UK closer to the Australian practitioner‐dominated approach to corporate rescue. This paper argues that the addition of a voluntary administration‐style procedure to China's current corporate rescue regime may be needed as China develops its market economy based on the rule of law. Copyright © 2017 INSOL International and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd     

A Proposal of an International Environmental Reporting Grid: What Interest for Policymakers,Regulatory Bodies,Companies, and Researchers?: Reply to Discussion of “Mandatory Environmental Disclosures by Companies Complying with IAS/IFRS: The Case of France,Germany and the UK”

This article offers the authors' insights concerning the issues raised by Professor Trevor Wilkins in commentaries on the article “Mandatory environmental disclosures by companies complying with IAS/IFRS: the case of France, Germany, and the UK” (Barbu et al., 2014). As suggested by Professor Wilkins, we demonstrate the utility of the international environmental reporting grid proposed in Barbu et al. (2014, Table 3): (1) for IASB policymakers and other regulatory bodies, (2) for companies to improve their environmental reporting, (3) for further research, and (4) for understanding the economic and financial consequences of IAS/IFRS-compliant environmental information.