Do momentum-based trading strategies work in emerging currency markets?

We appear to be the first to present correctly calculated results for the profitability of emerging currency momentum strategies using a long time series and a good cross-sectional sample. Using a 1985–2009 sample period and six emerging currencies, we find that long-short momentum strategies gained about 1–3% per annum after actual transaction costs. These profits declined through time (both economically and statistically), however, with most of our strategies losing money after transaction costs during the last five years of our sample. These results are similar to, though slightly more volatile in the cross section, than those published for major currencies.     

Do Big-Four affiliates earn audit fee premiums in emerging markets?

The paper investigates whether Big-Four affiliated (B4A) firms earn audit premiums in an emerging economy context, using Bangladesh as a case. The joint determination of audit and non-audit service fees is also examined using a sample of 122 companies listed in the Dhaka Stock Exchange. Our findings reveal that although the B4A firms do not generally earn a fee premium in Bangladesh, they charge higher audit fees for clients not purchasing non-audit services. This suggests that the B4A firms may actually lower audit fees to attract non-audit services, and cross subsidizes audit fees through non-audit-services fees. The lack of a B4A premium implies that there is lack of quality audit in emerging markets. We also document that audit and non-audit service fees are jointly determined in Bangladesh. Thus, we provide evidence of joint determination of audit and non-audit service fees in an emerging economy context.     

U.S. takeovers in foreign markets: Do they impact emerging and developed markets differently?

We investigate the effect that U.S. acquisitions of targets in emerging and developed countries have on the targets' rivals by measuring their stock price reaction to the acquisition announcement. On average, emerging market rivals react positively to these acquisitions while the reaction in developed markets is insignificant. In developed markets, the main factors explaining the reaction of rival firms are individual rival characteristics such as rival size, efficiency, growth opportunities, and leverage. In contrast, in emerging markets, country, industry, and acquisition characteristics such as economic development, shareholder protection, and the target's public status, industry, and percent acquired, play a more important role.     

Do auditing standards improve the accounting disclosure and information environment of public companies? Evidence from the emerging markets in China

In this paper, we investigate the impact of the implementation of a set of new auditing standards in 1996 on the information environment in the emerging markets in China. Because the implementation of such standards can increase the quality and/or quantity of accounting disclosures, it can be conceptualized as an improvement in the information environment of public companies. We investigate the improvement in accounting disclosure and information environment from both the market perspective and the accounting perspective. First, consistent with the information economics literature (e.g., [Holthausen, R., & Verrecchia, R., (1990). The effect of informedness and consensus on price and volume behavior. The Accounting Review, 65, 191–208]), we find that companies experience a significant increase in trading volume and price volatility subsequent to the implementation of the standards. Second, consistent with the literature on earnings management (e.g., [Chen, C. W. K., & Yuan, H. Q., (2004). Earnings management and capital resource allocation: evidence from China's accounting-based regulation of right issue. The Accounting Review, 79, 645–665, Jian, M., & Wong, T. J., (2004). Earnings management and tunneling through related party transactions: evidence from Chinese corporate groups. Working Paper, Nanyang Technological University and Hong Kong University of Science and Technology]), we find a decrease in earnings management and, hence, an increase in quality of earnings. Finally, we find a decrease in the synchronicity of stock prices and, hence, an increase in the quality of firm-specific information available to investors, which is consistent with the literature on price synchronicity (e.g., [Morck, R., Yeung, B., & Yu, W., (2000). The information content of stock markets: why do emerging markets have synchronous stock price movements? Journal of Financial Economics, 58, 215–260]). Our results have significant implications for standard setters, regulators, researchers, managers, and investors in general and those in the emerging markets in particular.     

Do extreme returns matter in emerging markets? Evidence from the Chinese stock market

Recent evidence in the U.S. and Europe indicates that stocks with high maximum daily returns in the previous month, perform poorly in the current month. We investigate the presence of a similar effect in the emerging Chinese stock markets with portfolio-level analysis and firm-level Fama–MacBeth cross-sectional regressions. We find evidence of a MAX effect similar to the U.S. and European markets. However, contrary to U.S. and European evidence, the MAX effect in China does not weaken much less reverse the anomalous idiosyncratic volatility (IV) effect. Both the MAX and IV effects appear to independently coexist in the Chinese stock markets. Interpreted together with the strong evidence of risk-seeking behaviour among Chinese investors, our results partially support the suggestion that the negative MAX effect is driven by investor preference for stocks with lottery-like features.     

Do emerging markets with consistent returns have better future performance?

Using monthly data for 25 emerging markets around the world, it is found that emerging markets with recently consistent stock returns tend to have future returns that continue in the same direction. The effects are long-lived for negative consistency, and imply that capital flows are much more sensitive to market downturns than market upturns. Additionally, the longer a market has had consistently negative (positive) stock returns, the more negative (positive) are future returns. These results serve as confirmation that the consistency effects of Grinblatt and Moskowitz [J. Finan. Econ., 2004 Grinblatt, M and Moskowitz, T. 2004. Predicting stock price movements from the pattern of past returns. J. Finan. Econ., 71: 541–579. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], forthcoming] and Watkins [J. Behav. Finan., 2003 Watkins, B. 2003. Riding the wave of investor sentiment: an analysis of consistency as a predictor of future stock returns. J. Behav. Finan., 4: 1–32.  [Google Scholar], 4, 1–32] exist in emerging markets around the world.     

Do regulatory policies affect the flow of information in emerging markets?

In a previous paper we established that volatility is best explained by contemporaneous rather than lagged trading volume in the Egyptian stock exchange (EGX). The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of regulatory policies - namely the switch from price limit to circuit breaker - on the dynamic relationship between trading volume and stock returns volatility in the EGX. Using daily returns data for 20 actively traded companies as well as the EGX30 market index, the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM), results show that the volume-volatility relationship is not only endogenous but is also structurally altered by the switch.     

Do foreign investors improve stock price informativeness in emerging equity markets? Evidence from Vietnam

Most of previous studies on stock price informativeness tend to focus on the context of mature stock markets while this issue is more acute in emerging equity markets where regulatory and institutional structure are weak. This paper examines the relationship between foreign ownership and stock price informativeness in Vietnam stock market. We utilize a data set covering firm attributes of non-financial firms listed on the Ho Chi Minh City stock exchange over the period 2007–2015. Employing different estimation techniques for panel data, the empirical results indicate that foreign investors improve stock price informativeness in Vietnam stock market. The finding from this paper confirms the important role of foreign investors in emerging equity markets.     

Do firms underreport information on cyber-attacks? Evidence from capital markets

Firms should disclose information on material cyber-attacks. However, because managers have incentives to withhold negative information, and investors cannot discover most cyber-attacks independently, firms may underreport them. Using data on cyber-attacks that firms voluntarily disclosed, and those that were withheld and later discovered by sources outside the firm, we estimate the extent to which firms withhold information on cyber-attacks. We find withheld cyber-attacks are associated with a decline of approximately 3.6% in equity values in the month the attack is discovered, and disclosed attacks with a substantially lower decline of 0.7%. The evidence is consistent with managers not disclosing negative information below a certain threshold and withholding information on the more severe attacks. Using the market reactions to withheld and disclosed attacks, we estimate that managers disclose information on cyber-attacks when investors already suspect a high likelihood (40%) of an attack.     

Do the size,value, and momentum factors drive stock returns in emerging markets?

This paper investigates the size, value, and momentum effects in 18 emerging stock markets during the period 1990–2013. We find that size and momentum strategies generally fail to generate superior returns in emerging markets. The value effect exists in all markets except Brazil, and it is robust to different periods and market conditions. Value premiums tend to move positively together across different markets, and such inter-market comovements increase overtime and during the global financial crisis.     

Do dividends matter more in declining markets?

We find dividends do matter to shareholders, but more in declining markets than advancing ones. Dividend-paying stocks outperform non-dividend-paying stocks by 1 to 2% more per month in declining markets than in advancing markets. These results are economically and statistically significant and robust to many risk adjustments and across industries. In addition, we find an asymmetric response to dividend changes based on market conditions: dividend increases matter more in declining markets than advancing ones. Tests indicate that results are not due to more profitable firms and appear not to be caused either by free cash flow or signaling explanations. We also find that it is the existence of dividends, and not the dividend yield, that drives returns' asymmetric behavior relative to market movements.     

Do cost-based pricing biases persist in laboratory markets?

Past accounting experiments have demonstrated significant effects of absorption vs variable costing systems on pricing decisions, but in individual settings that suppressed market features. The main finding of the current study is that a cost-based pricing bias did not persist in laboratory product markets. Given the opportunity to learn from profit and market feedback, sellers revised their price offers toward optimum in a manner that compensated for absorption vs variable cost signals. The effects of demand conditions, as revealed through actual trades, dominated the effects of alternative costing systems.     

Do private equity consortiums facilitate collusion in takeover bidding?

We address whether the joint bidding by private equity consortiums facilitates collusion in the takeover market. We employ a sample of 870 takeovers of publicly traded targets in the 2003 to 2007 period, the time period which is the focus of investigation by the Justice Department and the source of cases for class action lawsuits. A unique aspect of our analysis is that we determine the identification of private equity bidders from actual merger documents rather than rely on sources such as Securities Data Corp and that we analyze both prominent private equity bidders as well as smaller private equity firms. Our analysis finds competitive reasons for consortium formation based on scale, risk and bidder expertise. We also find that both single private equity bidders and private equity consortiums are associated with significantly greater levels of takeover competition than other types of bidders. While we find some evidence that target abnormal returns are lower in private equity consortium deals for narrow windows around the initial takeover-related announcement date, we find that these results do not hold for longer event windows that better account for the differences in the takeover process across types of bidders. Analysis that controls for the endogenous selection of consortium formation also fails to find any negative effect of consortiums on either takeover competition or target returns. We also do not find any negative effects of consortiums formed by prominent private equity firms. We interpret the evidence to be inconsistent with a collusive explanation for consortium formation in the 2003 to 2007 period and to be consistent with competitive reasons for consortium formation.     

What drives portfolio investments of German banks in emerging capital markets?

After decades of steady liberalization and financial market development, emerging capital markets experienced unparalleled capital inflows in the aftermath of the emerging markets crisis of the 1990s. This paper studies portfolio investment decisions of German banks in emerging capital markets from 2002 to 2007. The use of a dynamic time-series cross-section framework and the micro database External Position Report provided by Deutsche Bundesbank permit insights into the various determinants of portfolio investments in ECMs. For example, there is evidence that German banks take into account the various dimensions of financial market development in their portfolio investment decisions and anticipate the special risks inherent in emerging markets. Proxies for the overall development and efficiency of capital markets have the highest economic significance of all variables. The introduction of depositary receipts programs has a positive impact on stock market investment. Moreover, there is evidence that global risk aversion exerts a significant influence in times of financial turmoil.     

Can hedge funds time global equity markets? Evidence from emerging markets

This paper examines the ability of global hedge funds to time a particularly volatile asset class — emerging market equities. In particular, we study whether or not these funds can either time emerging markets as a whole, or time their exposures to different regions. Using both pooled and calendar-time approaches, we generally find no evidence of overall timing ability. However, we do find some evidence of period-specific timing ability during the financial crisis and subsequent recovery.     

Do accruals exacerbate information asymmetry in the market?

A considerable body of evidence, both archival and experimental, suggests that accounting accruals are heterogeneously interpreted by investors. We examine whether the information asymmetry among investors arising from this heterogeneous interpretation, implied in these empirical results, affects transactions costs in the form of the adverse selection component of the bid-ask spread. We examine this impact both, in a yearly setting and around the first release of quarterly accrual information. The results of the study provide empirical evidence of a positive association between the adverse selection component and accruals in the yearly analysis. Since wider bid-ask spreads are both theoretically and empirically linked to higher stock returns (Brennan & Subrahmanyam, 1996), our results provide a transaction cost basis for understanding one possible factor underlying the linkage between accruals and cost of equity capital, and accruals and information risk pricing as documented in Francis et al. (2005) and Ecker et al. (2006).     

Entrepreneurship and asymmetric information in input markets

Entrepreneurs starting new firms face two sorts of asymmetric information problems. Information about the quality of new investments may be private, leading to adverse selection in credit markets, and entrepreneurs may not observe the quality of workers applying for jobs, resulting in adverse selection in labor markets. We construct a simple model to illustrate some consequences of new firms facing both sorts of asymmetric information. The market equilibrium can involve an excess supply of workers entering the entrepreneurial sector, as well as credit rationing. Equilibrium outcomes mismatch workers to firms, and will generally result in an inefficient number of both entrepreneurs and workers opting for the entrepreneurial sector. Taxes or subsidies on new firms and on wages can improve efficiency, but a second-best optimum can only be achieved if it is optimal to induce an excess supply of workers to enter the entrepreneurial sector.     

Do foreign banks increase competition? Evidence from emerging Asian and Latin American banking markets

In this paper we examine the impact of foreign bank penetration on the competitive structure of domestic banking sectors in host emerging economies. We focus our analysis on Asia and Latin America during the period 1997-2008. Using bank-level panel data to identify foreign banks and to estimate measures of banking competition, we are able to provide robust empirical evidence that an increase in foreign bank penetration enhances competition in these host countries’ banking sectors. We find that this positive foreign bank penetration and banking competition link is associated with a spillover effect from foreign banks to their domestic counterparts. This spillover effect becomes stronger when more efficient and less risky foreign banks enter into less concentrated host country markets. We also find that the spillover effect is greater when foreign banks enter in the form of ‘de novo penetration’ than through mergers or acquisitions of domestic banks (‘M&A penetration’).     

Are firms from developed markets more international than firms from emerging markets?

Regionalist supporters’ claim that most of the world's largest firms are regional rather than global and that managers should be encouraged to ‘think regional, act local and forget global’ (Rugman and Moore, 2004, p. 67). We apply the matrix of multinationality proposed by Aggarwal et al. (2011) to a sample of the world's 500 largest corporations, the Fortune Global 500. We show that these firms range from purely domestic to regional, trans-regional and entirely global with most lying in the trans-regional and global categories. Our results imply that global strategies are essential to international trade and management in today's business environment. We compare multinationality results by market type (developed versus emerging market), industry, size and age. We find that firms from more advanced economies tend to be older, larger and more multinational than firms from emerging markets. We find no relationship between multinationality and age or multinationality and size, and conclude that developed market firms are not more multinational as a result of size, age or industrial structure.     

Developed markets’ business cycle dynamics and time-variation in emerging markets’ asset returns

This paper empirically studies the predictability of emerging markets’ stock returns by business cycle variables and the role of developed markets’ business cycle dynamics in this respect. The evidence shows that the link between business cycles and future stock market returns among emerging markets is considerably weaker than among developed markets. By contrast, I find strong evidence of stock return predictability by the respective country’s dividend-price ratio. This latter finding could reflect that variation in dividend-price ratios potentially reflects both the temporary impact of “hot money” inflows on emerging markets’ asset prices and rational expectations of future returns.