Indifference pricing with uncertainty averse preferences

We consider the indifference valuation of an uncertain monetary payoff from the perspective of an uncertainty averse decision maker. We study how the indifference valuation depends on the decision maker’s attitudes toward uncertainty. We obtain a characterization of comparative uncertainty aversion and various characterizations of increasing, decreasing, and constant uncertainty aversion.     

Uncertain equilibria and incomplete preferences

This paper studies the tendency for incomplete preference structures to be associated with equilibrium price indeterminacies in an Arrow–Debreu–McKenzie state-contingent setting. It is shown that the presence of a sufficiently smooth stochastic production technology is inconsistent with equilibrium price indeterminacies even if all individuals have incomplete preference structures. A particularly convenient characterization of Paretian equilibria in the presence of incomplete preferences, which allows Paretian equilibrium to be characterized using simple principles of convex optimization and (sub)differential analysis, is also developed.     

Efficient allocations and equilibria with short-selling and incomplete preferences

This paper reconsiders the theory of existence of efficient allocations and equilibria when consumption sets are unbounded below under the assumption that agents have incomplete preferences. Our model is motivated by an example in the theory of assets with short-selling where there is risk and ambiguity. Agents have Bewley’s incomplete preferences. As an inertia principle is assumed in markets, equilibria are individually rational. It is shown that a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of an individually rational efficient allocation or of an equilibrium is that the relative interiors of the risk adjusted sets of probabilities intersect. The more risk averse, the more ambiguity averse the agents, the more likely is an equilibrium to exist. The paper then turns to incomplete preferences represented by a family of concave utility functions. Several definitions of efficiency and of equilibrium with inertia are considered. Sufficient conditions and necessary and sufficient conditions are given for the existence of efficient allocations and equilibria with inertia.     

Probabilistic sophistication without completeness

This is a study of probabilistically sophisticated choice behavior when the preference relation is incomplete. Invoking the analytical framework of Anscombe and Aumann (1963) and building on the work of Machina and Schmeidler (1995), the paper provides an axiomatic characterization of the general multi-prior multi-utility probabilistically sophisticated representation. In addition, the paper examines the axiomatic foundations for two special cases: complete beliefs and complete tastes. In the former case, the incompleteness is due to ambiguous tastes and in latter case it is due to ambiguous beliefs.     

Testing how information about cost-effectiveness,cause preferences,and geographic preferences interact to affect philanthropic giving

The broad instrumental philanthropy movement advocates for considerations of cost-effective impact in donation decisions. Within that broader movement, the effective altruism movement goes as far as to advocate for cause neutrality and geographic neutrality when prioritizing cost-effectiveness in charity. We present a survey experiment that examined how information about cost-effectiveness, cause area preferences, and geographic preferences interact to affect philanthropic giving. The experiment varied these three dimensions in a hypothetical giving situation and found that cost-effectiveness information had the strongest influence on hypothetical giving. Participants gave most when presented with charities that were shown to be highly cost-effective, local/domestic, and that matched their preferred cause area. Understanding how these three considerations interact to affect donors is important as donors continue to desire more information about the cost-effective impact of their donation.     

Potential games with incomplete preferences

This paper studies potential games allowing the possibility that players have incomplete preferences and empty best-response sets. We define four notions of potential games, ordinal, generalized ordinal, best-response, and generalized best-response potential games, and characterize them using cycle conditions. We study Nash equilibria of potential games and show that the set of Nash equilibria remains the same when every player’s preferences are replaced with the smallest generalized (best-response) potential relation or a completion of it. Similar results are established about strict Nash equilibria of ordinal and best-response potential games. Lastly, we examine the relations among the four notions of potential games as well as pseudo-potential games.     

UNDERSTANDING PREFERENCE IMPRECISION

The term ‘preference imprecision’ seems to have different meanings to different people. In the literature, one can find references to a number of expressions. For example: vagueness, incompleteness, randomness, unsureness, indecisiveness and thick indifference curves. Some of these are theoretical constructs, some are empirical. The purpose of this paper is to survey the various different approaches and to try to link them together: to see if they are all addressed to the same issue, and to come to some conclusions. In the course of this survey, we report on evidence concerning the existence of preference imprecision, and its impact on theoretical and empirical work.     

Optimism,pessimism and financial bubbles

This paper shows that it is possible to extend the scope of the existence of rational bubbles when uncertainty is introduced associated with rank-dependent expected utility. This RDU assumption can be viewed as a transformation of probabilities depending on the pessimism/optimism of the agent. The results show that pessimism favors the existence of deterministic bubbles, when optimism may promote the existence of stochastic bubbles. Moreover, under pessimism, the RDU assumption may generate multiple bubbly equilibria. The RDU assumption also leads to new conditions ensuring the (absence of) Pareto-optimality of the competitive equilibrium without bubbles. These conditions still govern the existence of bubbles.     

A theory of stochastic choice under uncertainty

In this paper we propose a characterization of stochastic choice under risk and under uncertainty. We presume that decision makers’ actual choices are governed by randomly selected states of mind, and study the representation of decision makers’ perceptions of the stochastic process underlying the selection of their state of mind. The connections of this work to the literatures on random choice, choice behavior when preference are incomplete; choice of menus; and grades of indecisiveness are also discussed.     

Incomplete regulation, market competition and collusion

Regulators often do not regulate all firms competing in a given sector. Due to product substitutability, unregulated competitors have incentives to bribe regulated firms to have them overstate their costs and produce less, thereby softening competition. The best collusion-proof contract entails distortions both for inefficient and efficient regulated firms (distortion ‘at the top’). But a contract inducing active collusion may do better by allowing the regulator to ‘team up’ with the regulated firm to indirectly tax its competitor. The best such contract is characterized. It is such that the unregulated firm pays the regulated one to have it truthfully reveals its inefficiency. We finally compare those contracts.     

高校师生关系淡漠的原因分析和对策

大学师生关系既受到社会关系制约,也受到教育规律的制约。随着社会发展和时代的变化,高等教育实现了由精英教育到大众化教育的转变。旧的师生关系依然存在,新的问题和矛盾应运而生,大学师生关系面临着巨大的挑战。良好的师生关系是大学生成才、促进教师个人魅力的辐射和渗透、构建和谐校园的重要因素之一。对当前大学师生关系现状的研究,探析师生关系不和谐的原因,提出构建良好大学师生关系的对策,对构建和谐校园具有重大意义。     

Updating and Estimating a Social Accounting Matrix Using Cross Entropy Methods

The problem in estimating a social accounting matrix (SAM) for a recent year is to find an efficient and cost-effective way to incorporate and reconcile information from a variety of sources, including data from prior years. Based on information theory, the paper presents a flexible 'cross entropy' (CE) approach to estimating a consistent SAM starting from inconsistent data estimated with error, a common experience in many countries. The method represents an efficient information processing rule-using only and all information available. It allows incorporating errors in variables, inequality constraints, and prior knowledge about any part of the SAM. An example is presented, applying the CE approach to data from Mozambique, using a Monte Carlo approach to compare the CE approach to the standard RAS method and to evaluate the gains in precision from utilizing additional information.     

Preference symmetries,partial differential equations,and functional forms for utility

A discrete symmetry of a preference relation is a mapping from the domain of choice to itself under which preference comparisons are invariant; a continuous symmetry is a one-parameter family of such transformations that includes the identity; and a symmetry field is a vector field whose trajectories generate a continuous symmetry. Any continuous symmetry of a preference relation implies that its representations satisfy a system of PDEs. Conversely the system implies the continuous symmetry if the latter is generated by a field. Moreover, solving the PDEs yields the functional form for utility equivalent to the symmetry. This framework is shown to encompass a variety of representation theorems related to univariate separability, multivariate separability, and homogeneity, including the cases of Cobb–Douglas and CES utility.     

Affirmative Action: The Facts, the Myths, and the Future

This article focuses on recent federal court rulings affecting preferential treatment programs mandated by affirmative action policies and programs. The article addresses the greater burden that these decisions now place on organizations to justifying race-based remedial actions, and the standards by which these actions are judged. However, the programs affected by these rulings are only those imposed by federal, state or local governments. This article also discusses the narrow scope of these decisions—what programs they have not changed. As will be demonstrated, a broad range of voluntary private sector programs remain unaffected.     

Outsourcing of front-end business processes: Quality,information, and customer contact

We examine the recent supply chain phenomenon of outsourcing front-end business processes in this paper. Few, if any, of the existing theories provide satisfactory explanation for the rapid growth in this area. We use a model proposed by Sridhar and Balachandran [Sridhar, S.S., Balachandran, B.V. 1997. Incomplete information, task assignment, and managerial control systems. Manage. Sci. 43(6), 764–778] to determine the factors that might contribute to this phenomenon. Our analysis reveals that the ability of the vendor to forecast the task environment without bias and to gain sophistication in interpreting contract terms might make the firm indifferent between outsourcing and retaining front-end processes in-house. We validate our findings against the work of Apte and Mason [Apte, U.M., Mason, R.O., 1995. Global disaggregation of information-intensive services. Manage. Sci. 41(7), 1250–1262], who develop a theoretical framework to identify criteria for companies to select services to be outsourced. They base their decisions predominantly on the nature of “customer contact.” The combined theories are shown to provide a rich framework for identifying customer-facing tasks that can be outsourced.     

Renegotiation Design and Contract Solutions to the Hold-Up Problem

Abstract.  This paper surveys the literature on contractual solutions to the hold-up problem which has addressed the issue of how to design the optimal contractual arrangement to achieve efficient investments in the presence of contract incompleteness. Although scholars have argued that renegotiation design is a necessary condition to avoid the hold-up problem, some recent papers have seriously questioned this condition. We mainly show that renegotiation design remains a necessary condition to implement efficient investments.     

完全与不完全资产市场理论的一致性

本文通过建立一个包含完全市场与不完全市场的统一经济模型,从理论上阐述了不完全市场与完全市场的联系、区别及效率性。提出现实生活中如何把不完全市场转化为完全市场,从而使市场的效率增加。最后,针对现实的不完全市场,提出三种与之相应的制度安排。     

Instability and concentration in the distribution of wealth

We consider a setup in which infinitely lived households face idiosyncratic investment risk and show that in this case the equilibrium distribution of wealth becomes increasingly right-skewed over time until wealth concentrates entirely at the top. The households in our setup are identical in terms of their patience and their abilities, and we assume that there are no redistributive mechanisms—neither explicit in the form of government tax or fiscal policies, nor implicit in the form of limited intergenerational transfers. Our results demonstrate that the presence of such redistributive mechanisms alone ensures the stability of the distribution of wealth over time.     

关于中国银行集中度风险的实证研究

本文采用熵值法分析银行业的集中程度。实证结果表明,熵值与银行业的风险是正相关,而熵值与银行集中度是负相关,也就是说银行的集中度越高,风险就越小,银行系统也就越安全。由此可以得出以下结论:开放经济情况下,银行业集中度的提高可以降低风险,尤其是在外部经济不确定的情况下,更应保持金融力量的集中,以此来对抗危机的冲击。