住宅房地产税收的功能探析

住宅房地产在购销及保有环节涉及众多的税种,这些税种的税收功能存在突出差异。营业税具有突出的财政收入功能,但在收入调节方面有制度上的缺失;土地增值税具有鲜明的产业调控色彩,但征收办法的缺憾使其不能有效发挥作用;预期征收的房产税具有调节收入的功能,但在税制设计上存在征收制度和利益分配重构等制度困扰。建议针对相关税种的功能特点进行有针对性的制度改良,以促进我国住宅房地产业的健康发展。     

Volatilities and Momentum Returns in Real Estate Investment Trusts

We examine the relation of time-varying idiosyncratic risk and momentum returns in REITs using a GARCH-in-mean model and incorporate liquidity risk in the asset pricing model. This is important because illiquidity may be more severe for REITs due to the nature of their underlying assets. We find that momentum returns display asymmetric volatility, i.e., momentum returns are higher when volatility is higher. Additionally, we find evidence that REITs with lowest past returns (losers) have higher idiosyncratic risks than those with highest past returns (winners) and that investors require a lower risk premium for holding losers’ idiosyncratic risks. Therefore, although losers have higher levels of idiosyncratic risks, their low risk premia cause low returns, which contribute to momentum. Lastly, we find a positive relation between REITs’ momentum return and turnover.     

The Optimal Selling Strategy of Residential Real Estate

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - This paper studies three selling strategies of residential real estate: delegation to a broker, cheap talk with a broker and For Sale By Owner...     

Asset Bubbles: an Application to Residential Real Estate

Behavioural models offer new insights into why bubbles are ubiquitous in residential real estate markets. These markets are dominated by unsophisticated households who often develop optimistic views by extrapolating from past returns. Rational investors cannot easily trade against an overvaluation of housing assets because of high transaction costs and a binding short sale constraint. Circumventing the effect of the latter, the supply of housing frequently increases in response to rising prices. This helps to mitigate bubbles but often leads to overbuilding, which slows down the recovery after a bubble bursts. Models that incorporate the effects of perverse incentives and limits to arbitrage are especially helpful in explaining the bubble that developed in mortgage‐backed securities and helped fuel the recent real estate bubble by relaxing home buyers’ borrowing constraints. The literature is ambiguous about whether governments should intervene to burst bubbles, as a better response may lie in improving incentives of key market players.     

Foreclosure,REO, and Market Sales in Residential Real Estate

Assessment of lender and third-party bidder acquired properties at foreclosure auction is provided. Properties acquired at foreclosure auction by third-party bidders transact at a discount to lender dispositions of real estate owned (REO) properties. The discount reflects a reduction in costs associated with lender owned (REO) dispositions and uncertainty faced by third-party bidders. Moreover, there is a ranking in transaction prices among initial purchases by third-party bidders at foreclosure auction, REO sales, non-distressed property sales and the subsequent sales of third-party bidder acquired properties. Third-party bidder auction prices are below REO sale prices, which are below non-distressed property sale prices, which are below the subsequent sale prices of third-party bidder acquired properties. The price spacing by cohort is logical, intuitive and economically justified in a market with rational participants. Implications are also apparent for the measurement of price changes, net sale proceeds and returns to residential real estate.     

The Optimal Mortgage Loan Portfolio in UK Regional Residential Real Estate

In this study, we propose a method based on large deviation theory (LDT), which minimises credit risk (expected loss). We demonstrate how mortgage loan portfolios can be optimised using geographical differences in the risk characteristics of mortgage loans in the UK. Our empirical results show that credit risk can be reduced by a third when the LDT method is used instead of the benchmark portfolios that we calculate with regional-gross-value-added weights and equal weights. More importantly, the difference in the expected loss between these portfolios increases further during bearish housing markets. To see that such numbers matter, in an extreme scenario, the UK mortgage lenders could lose more than 2% a year as the consequence of mortgage defaults, which is equivalent to an annual loss of approximately 20 billion pounds in the UK. Although this extreme state would not continue for a long time, it nevertheless represents a huge potential loss for mortgage lenders and investors.     

Residential Real Estate Brokerage Efficiency from a Cost and Profit Perspective

Using 1994–1995 microeconomic data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), this article estimates cost and profit X-efficiency levels in the residential real estate brokerage market using traditional and Bayesian stochastic frontier models. We find that firms err more from failure to maximize profits than from failure to minimize costs. To determine what characteristics influence efficiency, we perform a regression analysis. The results show that franchising and firm age are associated with increases in efficiency, while MLS affiliation and producing a balanced output of listings and sales decrease performance. Finally, we estimate economies of scale and find compelling evidence that firms are operating at increasing returns to scale.     

On the Earnings and Price Momentum Strategies: Evidence from European Real Estate Firms

We test the performance and interaction between earnings and price momentum for European real estate companies by first making use of decile portfolios sorted on the previous 3- to 12-month returns, standardized unexpected earnings and a combination of both. Then, the relation is tested on a risk-adjusted basis employing a 3-factor asset pricing model and Fama and Macbeth (1973) cross-sectional regression analyses. Our analyses reveal several critical findings: (1) both price and earnings momentum are effective for European firms, the effect being stronger for the UK than EU firms; (2) unlike U.S. REITs, price momentum seems to dominate drift for European firms; (3) there is weak evidence for positive interaction between drift and price momentum, contrary to the U.S. evidence; (4) the performance of momentum strategies depends on the state of the economy, while controlling for systematic factors; (5) idiosyncratic risk of real estate property firms may influence the returns on drift and momentum factors.     

Buyer Search Intensity and the Role of the Residential Real Estate Broker

This study examines the impact of the real estate broker on the effectiveness of buyer search by focusing on the linkages between search intensity and the duration of search. How long a buyer searches depends on how sensitive the buyer is to within-period search costs and across-period, sequential search costs. High-income individuals and other homebuyers with high within-period search costs tend to search longer and less intensively. Buyers with high across-period search costs, such as out-of-town buyers, tend to search more intensively. Brokers, by reducing the opportunity costs of within-period search, increase buyer search intensity, which in turn reduces actual search time.     

Mean Reversion and Momentum: Another Look at the Price-Volume Correlation in the Real Estate Market

Based on behavioral finance and economics literature, we construct a theoretical framework in which consumers of newly constructed housing units perceive prices to follow a stochastic mean reversion pattern. Given this belief and the high carrying cost maintained by real estate developers, potential buyers opt to either exercise immediately or defer the purchase. We simulate the model within a real option framework by which we show that the optimal time to wait before exercising a purchase is positively related to the price level; hence, a negative (positive) correlation between transaction volume and price level (yield) emerges. Observing data on housing prices and new construction sales in Israel for the years 1998–2007, we apply an adaptive expectation regression model to test consumers’ belief in both mean reversion and momentum price patterns. The empirical evidence shows that while consumers’ demand pattern is simultaneously consistent with the belief in both momentum and mean reversion processes, the effect of the latter generally dominates. Moreover, while the data does not allow for testing the volume and price-level correlation, it does provide support to the positive volume-price yield correlation.     

房产税税率、房产税收入与房地产税制度设计

基于房产税税率对房产税收入影响理论,运用数理模型,依据沪渝两市自然数据,考量房产税税率变化对房产税收入的影响.结果显示:房产税税率对房产税收入具有重要影响.若提高上海市房产税税率,房产税增收效果更明显;若下调重庆市房产税税率,房产税增收效应更显著.鉴于此,未来房地产税立法改革思路:一是坚持房地产税税负不增加;二是平衡好房地产税立法与其他收费制度的关系;三是统筹税制改革的协同推进;四是兼顾房地产税的地方财政属性;五是谨慎推进.同时,应遵循税收法定原则、地方财政原则、公平原则、确实原则、渐进原则和结构性调整原则.此外,在制度设计方面,纳税人的设计要体现财产税性质,征税范围要涵盖农村,课税对象要包括存量住房,税率要体现差异性,计税依据要由市场价格评估值确定,税收优惠要兼顾免税面积和特殊人群.     

Real Estate Confidence Index Based on Real Estate News

A real estate confidence index (RECI) is used to evaluate real estate industry development, and it has become an effective and powerful measure in China’s real estate market (REM). RECI research based on big data is the new trend in finance and economics. In this article, we apply some methods of text classification to research on the construction of RECI. First, the Naïve Bayes algorithm is used to evaluate data and to classify the extent to which this measure describes confidence in the REM. Second, experiments on different perspectives are performed to probe the relationship between variables and the accuracy of the classifier. Third, we use the classifier to predict the weekly news. Ultimately, construction of the RECI based on financial and economic news is achieved by applying the classifier to the time and existence of major financial and economic news.     

Real Estate Risk Exposure of Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts

This study examines the linkage between equity real estate investment trust (REIT) returns and the private real estate factor. The results reveal a tighter connection between REIT and the private real estate market starting from 1993. In addition, large-cap REITs seem to behave more like real estate than do small-cap REITs. Overall, the results are consistent with three notions: (1) that institutional investors provide information-gathering services (Bradrinath et al., Rev. Financ. Stud., 8:401–430, 1995), (2) that a more sophisticated investor base improves information flow, and (3) that a high degree of participation from institutional investors strengthens the linkage between REIT returns and the underlying real estate factor (Ziering et al., The evolution of public and private market investing in the new real estate capital markets, Prudential Real Estate Investors, Parsippany, NJ, 1997).

The Hierarchical Repeat Sales Model for Granular Commercial Real Estate and Residential Price Indices

This paper concerns the estimation of granular property price indices in commercial real estate and residential markets. We specify and apply a repeat sales model with multiple stochastic log price trends having a hierarchical additive structure: One common log price trend and cluster specific log price trends in deviation from the common trend. Moreover, we assume that the error terms potentially have a heavy tailed (t) distribution to effectively deal with outliers. We apply the hierarchical repeat sales model on commercial properties in the Philadelphia/Baltimore region and on residential properties in a small part of Amsterdam. The results show that the hierarchical repeat sales model provides reliable indices on a very detailed level based on a small number of observations. The estimated degrees of freedom for the t-distribution is small, largely rejecting the commonly made assumption of normality of the error term.     

我国房地产信贷调控对房地产周期的影响分析

本文研究房地产周期波动的成因中发现我国历史上有些房地产信贷调控助推了我国房地产周期波动,而对投资性购房实施的逆周期房地产信贷调控平缓了房地产周期波动。通过进一步计量分析房地产信贷与房地产周期的关系,得出我国房地产信贷政策与房地产周期之间的相关结论。最后提出建立逆周期房地产信贷调控机制来熨平房地产周期波动的政策建议。     

Risk-Hedging in Real Estate Markets

Topics in real estate markets have attracted much attention recently. In this article, we first address the risk-hedging issues of speculators based on an American put option pricing model, and then investigate their risk-hedging behaviors using a generalized swing option so as to take capacity effects into account. Semi-analytic solutions are derived, and examples are presented. Results have important implications in the real estate markets and contribute to the operational research literature on risk measuring and risk management.     

房地产金融对房地产市场发展的影响研究：北海实证

本文通过向量自回y-5模型（VAR）研究房地产金融对房地产市场的实际影响。选取北海市金融类和房地产市场类等4项指标,建立2个VAR模型系统;利用脉冲相应函数和方差分解方法,分析信贷市场指标变化对房地产市场供需影响的时滞、持续时间及作用强度。结果表明：北海房地产金融市场与房地产市场无论在长期还是短期都存在均衡关系,两者具有一定程度的共生性。基于以上分析,提出相应的政策建议。     

江西省房地产市场发展与房地产金融风险关系实证研究

金融危机爆发后,世界主要经济体普遍实行了宽松货币政策。在这一背景下,我国房地产市场强势反弹,销量涨幅创历史新高,成交均价一路走高。2009年,江西省房地产市场实现逆势上扬行情,呈现出投资增速逐月回升,供给面积低位增长,销售规模大幅上升,成交均价一路走高的运行特点。在分析江西省房地产市场运行特点的基础上,本文从实证角度考察了房地产市场发展与金融支持之间的关系。实证结果表明,房地产市场的发展、房价的上涨与金融支持之间具有相互促进、互为因果的密切关系。在此基础上进一步分析了房地产市场发展中隐含的金融风险,并提出相应的对策建议。     

正视地产风险

多元化的融资渠道可以提高融资质量、大幅降低风险,避免致地产资金链断裂的情境。2012年10月惠誉发布了最新的《中国房地产开发商评级报告》,其中对行业风险状况的评估进行了更新,在中国本行业内的代表性企业倾向于被评为非投资级,只有极少数公司在BBB级别范围内,这些企业具有较高水平的经常性收入,可优先获取优质土地储备或资金,通常为国家所有。     

房价小跌怡情

全球经济刚刚从“急救室”里推出来,中国的房地产市场却仍在“高烧”。一些本该用于企业主业的资金被持续投入房地产市场,这些企业的CFO目前的要务,是给自己的决策层适当“降温”。