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1.
This paper examines the development of the Indonesian automotive industry since 1970. After giving an overview of trends and a comparative East Asian assessment, we investigate ownership patterns, the political economy of intervention and key structural features of the industry. Output grew rapidly in the three decades to 1997; there was a significant increase in technological capacity; and some firms in the components and commercial vehicle sectors were approaching international efficiency. However, the highly interventionist policy regime has resulted in an inefficient industry characterised by “back-to-front” industrialisation, uneconomic production runs and minuscule exports. The industry's fundamental weaknesses were exposed by the crisis of 1997–99. Looking beyond the current difficulties, the future challenge will be to develop a globally efficient and integrated industry.  相似文献   

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Atlantic Economic Journal -  相似文献   

3.
This study empirically compares, for the first time, the popular exchange‐rate–targeting regime with the recently emerged inflation‐targeting framework in developing countries. Applying a variety of propensity score matching methods and dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM) regressions to a sample of 50 developing countries for the years 1990–2006, we find strong and robust evidence that, compared to exchange‐rate targeting, inflation targeting leads to a significantly lower inflation rate, and the lower inflation rate does not come at a cost of slower growth.  相似文献   

4.
I investigate whether fair value accounting can contribute to the banking industry's systemic risk. I focus on the adoption of Statement of Financial Accounting Standard No. 115 (SFAS No. 115), which required available‐for‐sale (AFS) securities to be recognized at fair value with unrealized gains and losses included in equity through accumulated other comprehensive income. SFAS No. 115 increased banks' regulatory risk because, at the time, calculation of regulatory capital closely conformed with GAAP equity. I find that systemic risk increased following the adoption of SFAS No. 115. Furthermore, following a subsequent regulatory amendment—which excluded unrealized gains and losses on AFS securities from regulatory capital but did not change their GAAP treatment—systemic risk decreased. Taken together, the evidence suggests that fair value accounting has the potential to increase systemic risk through the explicit inclusion of volatile fair value estimates in regulatory bank capital adequacy assessments. I do not, however, find evidence of fair value accounting impacting systemic risk in its information role; that is, by providing information to a bank's external stakeholders about its financial position and performance. I also show that higher fair value volatility of investment securities, lower bank capital, and larger AFS security holdings increase banks' marginal contribution to systemic risk. My findings should interest regulators and policymakers, as recent regulatory changes in light of Basel III recommendations require unrealized gains and losses on AFS securities to be included in regulatory capital for advanced approaches banks.  相似文献   

5.
Although community participation still enjoys a high level of support across various sectors in South Africa, its practice is fraught with conceptual and practical difficulties. This paper starts out by examining some of the problems and limitations associated with community participation, including the heterogeneity and fragmentation of many poor communities, the lack of social and material resources and community members' expectations of receiving a return from their involvement in development projects. Participatory rural appraisal (PRA) or participatory learning and action (PLA) is used as an example to illustrate some of the conceptual and theoretical limitations that characterise most approaches to participatory development. In particular it is argued that approaches such as PRA/PLA lack the theoretical basis for effectively getting to grips with the problems of participatory development. What is needed is a conceptual framework not only to understand the responses of communities, but also to locate such communities within their socio-economic contexts. The second part of the paper therefore examines three developments in social science theory that may be able to contribute to the development of a richer conceptual framework for popular participation. These are the concept of social capital, the asset-based approach to development, and the debate around the role of the state in development.  相似文献   

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The central proposition of this paper is that African countriesshould start thinking through undertaking an orderly transitionfrom the current high dependence on foreign aid for financingeconomic and social development. Aid dependency should be reducednot because the international development community believesit will eventually happen, but because such dependence on foreignaid could substantially impair Africa's export competitivenessand therefore derail the Continent export-oriented developmentstrategies. A combination of further debt relief, reforms ofthe current aid regime and enhanced policy environment shouldallow a managed transition to a mixed menu of official developmentassistance (ODA) and private capital flows. However, the attemptby Africa to increase its share of investments from internationalprivate capital markets should be firmly anchored to the basictenets of an export-based development strategy. To provide thebasis for these policy conclusions, I estimate the relationshipbetween ODA, real exchange rates (RER) and non-traditional exportsfor a panel of 62 developing countries, including 28 from Africa.Unsustainable ODA flows were shown to have caused substantialpartial RER overvaluation in many African and non-African countries.Moreover, exceptionally high aid-dependent African countrieshave either experienced, or are likely to experience, overallRER overvaluation. Conditional on absence of RER overvaluation- a proxy for good policy environment of relevance to exportperformance - a robust Laffer curve-type relationship existsbetween aid and non-traditional exports through the misalignmentof RER relative to its equilibrium. The Laffer curve relationshipjustifies a 'precise' concept of aid dependency, based on theextent to which excessive ODA flows exceeded the threshold beyondwhich more ODA actually hinders rather than helps export expansion.According to this concept, several African countries were characterisedas being 'aid dependent'.  相似文献   

8.
Adolescents with mental health problems have much higher rates of smoking than those without such problems. Although a large body of evidence suggests that higher cigarette prices reduce smoking prevalence and the quantity smoked, little is known about the interaction between mental health or behavioral problems and tobacco consumption in the general population or among adolescents. Using a national representative sample of adolescents from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health and employing validated psychiatric measures of emotional distress and behavioral problems, we estimate the price elasticity of cigarette demand for adolescents who have behavioral or emotional problems. The results indicate that these adolescents are at least as responsive to cigarette prices as adolescents with no emotional or behavioral problems.  相似文献   

9.
China, which has already introduced an environmental tax in an effort to decarbonize, has recently begun emissions trading and is using two environmental policies in tandem, but there are concerns about the impact on growth and trade. Trade and environmental policies affect firms' entry and exit, resulting in changes in aggregate productivity and pollution emissions. This study compares the impacts of single regulation and dual regulation on welfare, using a research-and-development based growth model with heterogeneous firms. Under single regulation, the cleansing effect of trade liberalization could be undermined. Under dual regulation, trade liberalization decreases pollution and improves average productivity whereas decreasing total permits reduces pollution. From the perspective of improving welfare it is desirable to choose dual regulation because trade liberalization can reduce total pollution emissions via the cleansing effect of trade liberalization.  相似文献   

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This paper studies the heterogeneous responses of Chinese light manufacturing firms to rising labor costs from the perspective of New Structural Economics. Using the first-hand pilot survey data, we find that rising labor costs have been the number one challenge facing firms, and that despite the dominant strategy of technological upgrading, there is a substantial difference in responses across different firms. In addition, we discover that industrial and firm-specific labor intensity are key determinants of the heterogeneous strategies across firms in response to rising labor costs. We conclude that intrinsically more labor-intensive industries and firms are more likely to choose relocation instead of upgrading as a strategy to cope with the rising labor costs.  相似文献   

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Consider two downstream firms that each can either produce an input in-house or purchase it from an upstream supplier. We show that depending on the difference between the supplier's and the downstream firms' in-house production costs, outsourcing by both firms could help them achieve a Pareto improvement or leave them trapped in a prisoner's dilemma. Furthermore, we find that two downstream firms may play a chicken game in which each makes a sourcing decision different from its rival if the input supplier is not as efficient as in the previous cases. The welfare implications of various sourcing outcomes are explored.  相似文献   

14.
In recent years, quarterly earnings guidance has been harshly criticized for inducing “managerial short‐termism” and other ills. Managers are, therefore, urged by influential institutions to cease guidance. We examine empirically the causes of such guidance cessation and find that poor operating performance — decreased earnings, missing analyst forecasts, and lower anticipated profitability — is the major reason firms stop quarterly guidance. After guidance cessation, we do not find an appreciable increase in long‐term investment once managers free themselves from investors’ myopia. Contrary to the claim that firms would provide more alternative, forward‐looking disclosures in lieu of the guidance, we find that such disclosures are curtailed. We also find a deterioration in the information environment of guidance stoppers in the form of increased analyst forecast errors and forecast dispersion and a decrease in analyst coverage. Taken together, our evidence indicates that guidance stoppers are primarily troubled firms and stopping guidance does not benefit either the stoppers or their investors.  相似文献   

15.
Electronic coordination links markets that have initially been separated by transport costs, which in turn raises competitive pressure and affects incentives to differentiate products. We analyze private and social incentives to invest in a repositioning of products in a heterogeneous goods duopoly with two spatially separated markets. We consider both price and quantity competition to be able to distinguish between digital and physical products, respectively. For low transport costs, firms want to enhance product differentiation as expected. However, if transport costs remain close to prohibitive levels, they have an incentive to reduce heterogeneity.  相似文献   

16.
In recent years local economic development and regeneration agencies have begun to examine how locally based childcare can contribute to economic and social regeneration. This paper is based on current research by the authors and reports on the expectations and current realities of community based childcare as part of an economic regeneration strategy. It suggests that whilst the incorporation of childcare into urban regeneration strategy holds the potential to reduce the barriers to labour market involvement by mothers in low income households, less positive effects are also identifiable. Early evaluation is used to show that the commodification of care within urban regeneration policies reinforces care work as low paid, insecure gendered employment. It concludes by arguing that a more critical evaluation of both the economic and social impact of childcare on area regeneration is necessary.  相似文献   

17.
This paper analyzes the reasons for the rapid increase in the scale of green bonds issued by Chinese commercial banks in recent years from the perspective of financing costs and regulatory arbitrage. Our empirical results show that the financing cost mechanism cannot explain this increase since the financing costs of green bonds are not lower than those of non-green financial bonds. Furthermore, commercial banks with low asset liquidity engage in regulatory arbitrage to take advantage of the convenience of green bond financing permission to supplement their liquidity. Our results imply that the regulatory arbitrage mechanism is a very important motivation for commercial banks to issue green bonds. To reduce this motivation and ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the green bond market, green ratings of projects should be linked with financing costs as a way to form a positive feedback incentivizing mechanism for green project financers.  相似文献   

18.
A notable feature of the 1920s and 1930s is the volatility in several key macroeconomic aggregates, and this feature used to econometrically identify the reaction of the Fed to stock market developments. The volatility of economic activity may have contributed to deepening the divisions among policy-makers about how the Fed ought to respond to stock price developments. Relying on the technique of [Rigobon, R. 2003. Identification through heteroskedasticity. Review of Economics and Statistics 85, 777–792], volatility is used as an instrument to estimate the Fed’s response to the stock market. Other identification assumptions based on structural VARs produce compatible results. Fed behavior appeared to have changed following the stock market crash of 1929. Consistent with the Riefler-Burgess doctrine, interest rates and stock returns are negatively related. I conclude that, prior to the stock market crash of 1929, a form of benign neglect explains Fed behavior. Thereafter, the Fed reacts only slightly more aggressively to stock market developments.  相似文献   

19.
In response to the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), there have been substantial variations in policy response and performance for disease control and prevention within and across nations. It remains unclear to what extent these variations may be explained by bureaucrats' professionalism, as measured by their educational background or work experience in public health or medicine. To investigate the effects of officials' professionalism on their response to and performance in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, we collect information from the résumés of government and Party officials in 294 Chinese cities, and integrate this information with other data sources, including weather conditions, city characteristics, COVID-19-related policy measures, and health outcomes. We show that, on average, cities whose top officials had public health or medical backgrounds (PHMBGs) had a significantly lower infection rate than cities whose top officials lacked such backgrounds. We test the mechanisms of these effects and find that cities whose officials had a PHMBG implemented community closure more rapidly than those lacked such backgrounds. Our findings highlight the importance of professionalism in combating the pandemic.  相似文献   

20.
This paper examines whether price level or inflation targeting would have been appropriate policy choices for Japan during its disinflation and deflation period. We employ Markov switching and structural vector autoregressions, together with structural IS equations, to investigate monetary policy effectiveness during the Japanese disinflation. We find evidence of regime switching in the mid-1990s in a model including the nominal policy interest rate. When monetary policy shocks are identified by using the McCallum rule for monetary base, a monetary expansion is found to have a statistically significant impact on prices. Moreover, a lower real ex ante interest rate can still stimulate the economy despite the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.  相似文献   

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