中国——东盟自由贸易区的FDI效应分析

中国——东盟自由贸易区的建立对区内及各成员国吸引FDI将产生重要的影响,本文首先对中国和东盟各国利用FDI的概况进行了分析,然后着重从静态和动态不同的角度出发,分析了建立中国—东盟自由贸易区对FDI所产生的各种效应,并且认为总体上将有利于自由贸易区的FDI流入。     

中国应该让人民币升值吗?-分析汇率对外国直接投资的影响

该文构造了一个包含一个FDI输出国,两个FDI接受国的静态模型.通过此模型,我们分析了真实汇率是如何影响FDI在两个接受国之间的分布.从模型中得到的理论结果是:如果一个FDI接受国的货币对FDI输出国货币的贬值(升值)幅度,大于另一个FDI接受国的货币对FDI输出国货币的贬值(升值)幅度,那么,流入该国的FDI将会相对上升(下降).我们利用1981年至2002年日本在中国和东盟四国(印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾和泰国)制造业直接投资的数据,检验了模型的理论结果.实证结果表明,相对的真实汇率是决定日本FDI在中国与东盟四国之间分布的重要因素.如果人民币对日元实际升值10%,在其他因素均未改变的情况下,日本对中国制造业的直接投资可能会下降超过11%.     

中国—东盟自由贸易区的环境效应研究——基于污染密集品贸易效应的实证分析

笔者基于贸易自由化的环境规模效应,以污染密集型产品作为主要研究对象,运用改进的引力模型,通过实证分析CAFTA建立对于中国和东盟之间污染密集型产品的贸易效应,来进一步考察在低碳经济背景下CAFTA贸易自由化的环境效应问题。结果表明:CAFTA的建立对区域内污染密集型产品的贸易具有显著的贸易创造效应,同时对非成员与CAFTA成员间的贸易也具有一定的促进作用。自由贸易区的建立给中国和东盟双方带来了更大的环境压力。     

中国与东盟自由贸易区建设对策初探

在世界范围内区域性自由贸易区的建设已成趋势,中国与东盟十国间建立自由贸易区在我国政府的推动下已正式启动。我们认为我国应以此为契机,尽快制定推进我国与东盟建设自由贸易区的总体战略规划,利用中国与东盟的人力资源及自然资源优势,共同创造条件,使中国和东盟成为世界的制造中心,以中国与东盟为核心,建立东亚经济共同体。一、中国与东盟自由贸易区建设的由来目前的全球自由贸易体系主要分为三个经济区:北美自由贸易区、欧盟和东盟。在美国的主导下,北美、中美和南美等34个国家已正式宣布在2005年1月成立西半球自由贸易区。欧盟在2002年…     

FDI在云南的区位分布研究

云南吸引FDI流入最早可以追溯到滇越铁路的修筑,近代云南FDI流入始于80年代中期,“昆交会”的成功举办为云南FDI流入起到了重要的推动作用.总体看云南吸引FDI流入起步晚,速度快.昆明是云南省FDI流入的主要聚集地,超过60％的外资流入和实际利用主要集中于昆明,怒江、文山、楚雄、丽江、昭通等地是云南内部FDI流入最少的地区,其总和不足全省的2％.地区差异明显、地区规模差距大是FDI在云南区位分布的主要特征.     

中国内地吸收FDI对中国港台地区的挤出效应分析

文章利用FDI流入量的决策模型,根据1984—2005年美国对中国内地和中国香港、台湾地区的FDI的相关数据,发现中国内地的FDI流入没有对中国香港、中国台湾造成挤出效应.相反,中国内地每年的FDI流入反而促进了中国香港、中国台湾吸引外资的流入：根据格兰杰因果分析的结果,我们还发现,中国内地的FDI流入与中国台湾的FDI流入量之间存在单向的格兰杰因果效应,也就是说,中国内地的FDI流入确实是导致中国台湾的FDI流入量增加的格兰杰原因。但是中国内地的FDI流入与中国香港的FDI流入量之间却不存在任何的格兰杰因果关系     

人力资本因素在中国和印度吸引FDI中的差异

新劳动合同法颁布实施以后,关于中国劳动力成本上升会是否使得外商直接投资(FDI)流入减少,甚至使得FDI转而流入印度的讨论引起诸多学者的兴趣.笔者通过对中印两国在人力资本因素上对吸引FDI流入的差异进行比较得出结论:未来关于吸引FDI的竞争将不是FDI流入量的竞争,而是FDI优效结构的竞争,人力资本素质的提高是改善FDI流入结构的根本所在.     

中国应该让人民币升值吗?-分析汇率对外国直接投资的影响

本文构造了一个包含一个FDI输出国,两个FDI接受国的静态模型。通过此模型,我们分析了真实汇率是如何影响FDI在两个接受国之间的分布。从模型中得到的理论结果是:如果一个FDI接受国的货币对FDI输出国货币的贬值(升值)幅度,大于另一个FDI接受国的货币对FDI输出国货币的贬值(升值)幅度,那么,流入该国的FDI将会相对上升(下降)。我们利用1981年至2002年日本在中国和东盟四国(印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾和泰国)制造业直接投资的数据,检验了模型的理论结果。实证结果表明,相对的真实汇率是决定日本FDI在中国与东盟四国之间分布的重要因素。如果人民币对日元实际升值10%,在其他因素均未改变的情况下,日本对中国制造业的直接投资可能会下降超过11%。     

引进来与走出去需要协调

改革开放来,我国多措并举招商引资,取得了可喜的成果,已经成为全球FDI流入第二大东道国.相比之下,我国的对外直接投资却并不乐观,无论是绝对规模还是相对规模都与FDI流入相差甚远,更与我国当前的经济发展水平不相符.因此,促进FDI流入和流出相互协调势在必行,为此需要切实把握我国FDI流入和流出现状,并以此为基础找到切实可行的措施.     

广东省环境规制对FDI的影响

本文首先探讨了广东省环境规制的现状,然后建立计量经济模型对广东省环境规制与FDI之间的关系进行实证分析,得到结论：广东省的环境规制与FDI的流入有长期动态均衡关系,环境规制会在一定程度上影响FDI流入,而且这种影响是负面的。严格的环境规制是影响FDI流入的成因,但FDI的流入是环境规制的成因,它们之间不是互为因果的关系。最后,针对广东省的具体情况提出了相应的政策建议,为政府制定政策提供借鉴与依据。     

建立中国-东盟自由贸易区的贸易效应分析

在当今世界经济的发展中,区域经济一体化是战后世界经济发展的重要特征,也是当前世界经济发展的客观必然趋势。按照《中国-东盟全面经济合作框架协议》时间框架,中国-东盟自由贸易区于2010年1月1日全面建成。本文首先介绍了中国-东盟自由贸易区的发展状况;然后采用定性分析法,通过对建立中国-东盟自由贸易区的贸易效应分析,可以看出中国东盟的经济还有很大的发展空间,只要将贸易区内存在的问题处理妥当,中国一东盟自由贸易区在建成后将能发挥更大的潜力。     

A MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE OF AFTA'S PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the impressive economic performance of most of its members have increased the weight of the region's views in world fora. However, ASEAN has been unsuccessful in fostering a regional integration arrangement (RIA) leading to an increase in intraregional trade and foreign direct investment. In January 1992, ASEAN launched the Asean Free Trade Area (AFTA) seeking to establish a free trade area (FTA) by 2008.
Market integration increases economic interdependence and thereby raises the need for policy integration and discipline. This paper argues that a number of difficulties that ASEAN faced in promoting intraregional trade are likely to continue to affect AFTA (e.g., low economic complementarity and macroeconomic imbalances requiring large changes in equilibrium real exchange rates). The experience of other RIAs suggests other potential problems.
AFTA's prospects of evolving into deeper forms of sustainable integration are remote. Some cooperation in areas of common interest seems likely.     

The Economic Rise of China: Challenges and Opportunities for ASEAN

This paper looks at the economic rise of China and its impacts and implications for the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) region. The issues of complementarities and competitiveness of ASEAN and China in trade and investment and the opportunities and challenges arising from China's emergence and the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area are discussed. The message from China's emergence is clear and strong; it is that size does matter. To increase ASEAN competitiveness, the paper highlights the need for a deeper and more rapid economic integration of ASEAN in order to exploit scale economies. The important role of Japan in this process is highlighted. Finally the issue of ASEAN economic diversity is discussed. It is suggested that while ASEAN is fairly diverse, this should not be a critical stumbling block to a more rapid economic integration of ASEAN.     

FDI, Regional Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth: Some Evidence from Southeast Asia

This empirical study investigates whether FDI caused spillover effects which led to the economic growth of the ASEAN‐5 economies (1970–96), and, if that is so, whether the ASEAN Preferential Trade Agreement (APTA) had a significant effect in attracting FDI to the region. Its findings are that FDI has stimulated economic growth most effectively through human factors, and knowledge/technological learning‐by‐doing effects; and that the formation of the APTA had a lagged influence on FDI inflows to the advantage of the more‐developed member countries, and disadvantage of the less‐developed member countries.     

Assessing Market Integration in ASEAN with Retail Price Data

We assess the extent of market integration the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) using a comprehensive data set that contains actual local retail prices for 131 goods and services in ASEAN countries (except Laos and Myanmar) over the period of 1990–2013. We conduct two different, but complementary, approaches: analyzing price dispersion and testing for convergence to the law of one price via panel unit root tests. The 1997 Asian crisis and, to a lesser extent, the 2008 global crisis appear to have caused a considerable disruption in the process of market integration. Despite significant tariff reduction under the ASEAN Free Trade Area commitments in the past two decades, the level of price dispersion across ASEAN is higher in 2013 than in 1990. Panel unit root tests accounting for cross‐section dependence show that convergence to the law of one price holds for only a minority of retail prices, including those of traded goods, in the ASEAN markets. We also consider a nonlinear exponential smooth transition autoregressive approach and a structural break as alternative adjustment dynamics in the panel unit root tests. Overall, our results suggest that there is much to be done in ASEAN to achieve a meaningful ASEAN economic community.     

North–South Integration and the Location of Foreign Direct Investment

We investigate how North–South integration affects the location of foreign direct investment (FDI) between the two regions. The theoretical analysis suggests that integration affects the incentives of partner and nonpartner Northern countries to locate in the South differently and may lead to investment diversion from the Northern partner. We test our propositions using data from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the first major North–South integration scheme. We find that NAFTA partner FDI in Mexico has increased since the inception of NAFTA above what is implied by other determinants of FDI and the global upward trend during this time. Other countries have not increased their use of Mexico as an export platform. We also find no evidence that inward US FDI has been diverted. The results are robust to a number of different model and econometric specifications as well as the skill data used.     

Free Trade Agreements and the Prospects for Regional Integration in East Asia

Trade policy in East Asia has switched from non-discriminatory unilateral liberalization, reinforced by General Agreements on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization (GATT/WTO) commitments, to discriminatory free trade agreements (FTA). The paper surveys the FTA activity of the major regional players: China, the ASEAN countries, Japan, and South Korea. It concludes that emerging FTAs are weak and partial. A hub-and-spoke pattern of dirty FTAs will not drive regional economic integration or further integration with the global economy. Rather, it could be a force of regional economic disintegration – especially if the multilateral trading system weakens further. At the same time, FTA activity is distracting attention from the WTO, and, more fundamentally, from unilateral liberalization and domestic structural reforms. Hence, East Asian trade policies need to be rebalanced, with better-quality FTAs and more focus on the WTO. However, more important than the WTO and FTAs is a fresh spurt of unilateral liberalization and structural reform outside trade negotiations.     

Do channels of financial integration matter for FDI’s impact on growth? Empirical evidence using a panel

This paper adds to the debate on the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth which suggest that the link between FDI and economic growth is rather the consequence of both FDI and growth responding endogenously to economic integration. We investigate if the impact of FDI on growth is dependent on the channel of integration used to attract FDI. We use four different indexes of economic integration including Trade Openness, Chinn-Ito, and KOF and our newly constructed index of financial integration. We employ these four indexes to investigate the role played by economic integration in linking FDI and growth. We use a panel consisting of 134 developing countries and data spanning the period 1989-2017 estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) technique. The results show that FDI is an important determinant of growth. The results also suggest that at least some of the integration variables do matter and work as channels to attract FDI leading to growth. However, after stratifying countries by income level, we also find that integration matters mainly for high income countries. Integration variables for other income groups do not show much significance. These are interesting results and may have important policy implications.     

Does the reduction of regional trade policy uncertainty increase Chinese enterprises' outward foreign direct investment? Evidence from the China−ASEAN Free Trade Area

Regional trade policy uncertainty is an important factor affecting enterprises' outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). This paper uses the China?ASEAN Free Trade Area as the research object. The research uses the “China Industrial Firm Database” from 2001 to 2013 and the “List of Chinese Overseas Investment Enterprises (Institutions)” to match micro‐enterprise data. Using the difference‐in‐difference (DID) approach to construct quasi‐natural experiments, we study the impact of the reduction in regional trade policy uncertainty on Chinese enterprises' OFID. The results show that the free trade agreement strategy implemented by China has reduced the regional trade policy uncertainty, which has had a significant positive impact on Chinese enterprises' OFDI. The establishment of the China?ASEAN Free Trade Area has significantly increased Chinese enterprises' OFID in ASEAN countries. The study further finds that enterprises of different ownership types, in different regions and of different factor intensities display heterogeneous effects in this process. The empirical results of the paper provide new ideas for promoting OFDI from the standpoint of reducing regional trade policy uncertainty, and also provide a new perspective for explaining the increase in foreign investment in China in recent years.     

Should AFTA and CER Link?

This article examines the logic of the link between the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) and the Closer Economic Relations (CER) regional trading arrangements which was mooted by the Thai Prime Minister in 1993. AFTA and CER are the only two regional trading arrangements in the East Asia/West Pacific region and both are advancing to a high degree of regional integration. This article argues that there are undoubted gains to be had from an AFTA-CER link by itself which includes reciprocal trade liberalisation as well as trade facilitation. Both groups of countries would benefit from freer trade between them and both have a lot to learn from the experiences of the other regional trading arrangement. However, this link will be redundant if the Bogor Declaration of the APEC is implemented after the Osaka meeting of APEC Leaders in November 1995. If, instead, multilateral trade liberalisation through the World Trade Organisation and APEC falters, an AFTA-CER link becomes an important possibility.