中国省域人口迁移的经济增长效应——基于内生增长视角的实证分析

陈述了改革开放以来我国的人口迁移规律,从理论上分析了人口迁移的动态变迁过程,并结合一般均衡理论、新古典增长模型说明了人口迁移过程中的经济发展水平变动特征。构建含带人口迁移因素的内生增长模型,对人口迁移的内生增长作用机制作出了解析,并以此为基础实证分析了我国省域近10年来人口迁移对经济增长的内生影响特征与变动趋势。二元人口迁移存在明确的动态均衡过程,受其影响,会导致城乡两部门出现产出的一般均衡状态,而这一状态符合新古典增长模型所设定的假设条件与稳态结论。从实际情况看,我国省域间的城乡二元人口净迁移具有明确的经济增长效应,同时不同省份、四大区域总体上表现出增长效应递减特征。     

西部地区人口迁移与经济增长关系的演进分析

笔者首先对改革开放以来西部地区人口迁移的规律和特征做出分析和判断,在此基础上运用内生人口迁移经济增长模型,实际测算了近十几年来西部各省区省际人口迁移对经济增长的影响强度。结果显示,各省区的人均产出与人口净迁移率之间存在较高的正相关性,但人口迁移对经济影响的强度有所差别,从整体来看,西南地区净迁移人口的作用更大一些。此外,没有任何迹象表明省际人口迁移伴随有地区间经济发展水平的收敛(趋同),相反,正是因为地区间经济发展水平的不断扩大,才会形成以四川、新疆、陕西等为流入中心的省际迁移人口聚集地。     

Economic migration and business cycles in a small open economy with matching frictions

With the free movement of labour in Europe, economic migration has become an important determinant of labour supply. Cyclical migration exceeds one percent of the population in many countries and affects (un)employment and wage setting. The main contribution of this paper is that it models migration as an endogenous decision in a search-and-matching framework, where labour market institutions play an important role. It shows that, contrary to typical beliefs, migration can amplify business cycles. After a positive shock to the economy, immigration increases the labour force and initially unemployment. The latter reduces a worker's outside option in wage negotiations, resulting in a lower wage increase than when there is no migration. With cheaper labour firms post more job vacancies, which increases the probability that unemployed workers find jobs and attracts new workers to immigrate. Attenuated response of wages and the stronger response of employment to shocks result in a flatter Phillips curve.     

Growth,fertility and human capital: A survey

This paper surveys recent work on endogenous fertility and endogenous growth. These models provide the building blocks for a theory of development. They are capable of explaining income and fertility differentials between rich and poor countries. They can produce switching behavior, countries that transform themselves from no growth economies into high growth economies. The fertility and growth effects of social security programs are also examined. Finally models with increasing returns to population are presented. They are capable of reproducing very long term relationships between human capital, fertility and economic growth.     

Search, migration, and urban land use: The case of transportation policies

We develop a search-matching model with rural-urban migration and an explicit land market. Wages, job creation, urban housing prices are endogenous and we characterize the steady-state equilibrium. We then consider three different policies: a transportation policy that improves the public transport system in the city, an entry-cost policy that encourages investment in the city and a restricting-migration policy that imposes some costs on migrants. We show that all these policies can increase urban employment but the transportation policy has much more drastic effects. This is because a decrease in commuting costs has both a direct positive effect on land rents, which discourages migrants to move to the city, and a direct negative effect on urban wages, which reduces job creation and thus migration. When these two effects are combined with search frictions, the interactions between the land and the labor markets have amplifying positive effects on urban employment. Thus, improving the transport infrastructure in cities can increase urban employment despite the induced migration from rural areas.     

A numerical simulation analysis of (Hukou) labour mobility restrictions in China

We use numerical simulation methods to analyze the Hukou system of permanent registration in China which many believe has supported growing relative inequality over the last 20 years by restraining labour migration both between the countryside and urban areas and between regions and cities. Our aim is to inject economic modelling into the debate on sources of inequality in China which thus far has been largely statistical. We first use a model with homogeneous labour in which wage inequality across various geographical divides in China is supported solely by quantity based migration restrictions (urban–rural areas, rich–poor regions, eastern-central and western (non-coastal) zones, eastern and central-western development zones, eastern–central–western zones, more disaggregated 6 regional classifications, and an all 31 provincial classification). We calibrate this model to base case data and when we remove migration restrictions all wage and most income inequality disappears. Results from this model structure points to a significant role for Hukou restrictions in supporting inequality in China. We then present a further model extension in which urban house price rises retard rural–urban migration. The impacts of removing Hukou restrictions on migration are smaller, but are still significant. Finally, we modify the model to capture labour productivity differences across regions, calibrating the modified model to estimates of both national and regional Gini coefficients. Removal of migration barriers is again inequality improving but less so.     

Minimum wage, exports and growth

Using an endogenous growth model in an open economy, we study the impact of minimum wages on growth for an innovator country. We state that a minimum wage shifts efforts from production to R&D, but only in an open economy. Thus, it speeds up long-run growth in proportional to exports. Calibrations suggest the growth surplus can be significant. An empirical study on 11 OECD countries illustrates these results. The impact on welfare is ambiguous because the minimum wage induces unemployment. However, we show that in an open economy, a minimum wage associated with unemployment benefits can Pareto dominate laissez-faire.     

Unemployment Invariance

Abstract. This paper provides a critique of the ‘unemployment invariance hypothesis’, according to which the behavior of the labor market, by itself, ensures that the long‐run unemployment rate is independent of the size of the capital stock, productivity and the labor force. In the context of an endogenous growth model, we show that the labor market alone need not contain all the equilibrating mechanisms to ensure unemployment invariance; in particular, other markets may perform part of the equilibrating process as well. By implication, policies that raise the growth path of capital or increase the effective working‐age population may influence the long‐run unemployment rate.     

On Impatience, Economic Growth and the Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Dynamic Analysis of Resource Management

The paper presents a dynamic analysis of natural resource management and investigates some key factors that affect optimal management and resource conservation.Using a recursive specification of time preferences, we show how endogenous discounting and impatience can affect the motivation for both capital investments and environmental preservation. We examine the relationships between economic growth and environmental quality. Endogenous discounting provides new insights in the economic dynamics underlying the environmental Kuznets curve. By treating growth as endogenous, we examine how externalities and economic growth interact with each other. We investigate how economic development can contribute to an increased demand for environmental preservation. As an important new result, we also show how poverty can contribute to environmental degradation.     

A “Managerial” trade union and economic growth

By setting up a simple Romer-type [Romer, P.M., 1989. Capital accumulation in the theory of long-run growth. In: Barro, R.J. (Ed.), Modern Business Cycle Theory. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA] endogenous growth model embodying a political trade union (rather than the traditional economic labor union), this paper explores the effects of unionization on unemployment, growth and welfare by highlighting the essence of internal conflict within the union. It is shown that the conflicting interests between the leadership and membership within the union play a decisive role in the unemployment, growth and welfare effects of unionization. Given the fact that taxation is another potential candidate besides unions in explaining the poor performance of a macro-economy, we re-examine the taxation effects within the growth model with equilibrium unemployment caused by the presence of the trade union and compare our findings with those for the traditional full-employment growth model. In general, we find that the taxation effects of income and consumption crucially depend not only on the institutional arrangements for taxing unemployment benefits, but also on the way the government budget is balanced.     

Another Look at Wage Distortion in a Developing Dual Economy

The paper focuses on an endogenous wage distortion in a developing dual economy where an efficiency wage in the urban sector triggers rural-urban migration. Because of the endogenous nature of the distortion, this migration reduces the severity of distortion by creating more jobs and reducing the actual wage differential between the sectors. These results are in sharp contrast to the outcomes of an exogenous wage distortion (minimum wage) where rural-urban migration increases the severity of unemployment and calls for costly policy mechanisms that might be either politically or economically difficult to implement. Furthermore, in contrast to the case of an exogenous distortion, interregional migration with endogenous wage distortion increases urban industrial output and structural transformation works its way into the development process. This structural transformation is maintained even when this dual economy engages in the production of non-traded goods. Although this paper does not engage in policy ranking to bring in zero unemployment equilibrium, it shows that it is possible to achieve socially desirable level of migration by influencing detection rate of shirking or disutility of work effort instead of using costly distributive parameters such as taxes and subsidies.     

LONG‐RUN GROWTH AND WELFARE EFFECTS OF TAX REFORM

This paper introduces an endogenously‐determined fertility rate into a Romer‐type endogenous growth model and, accordingly, investigates the effects on fertility, economic growth and social welfare of a revenue‐neutral tax reform that involves switching from an income tax to a consumption tax. We show that, in a departure from the existing literature, tax reform could be harmful, rather than favourable, to both growth and welfare, due to an endogenous fertility rate. We also conduct a simple numerical analysis to investigate under what conditions the negative effect on growth and welfare occurs.     

Respect and relational contracts

Assuming that people care not only about what others do but also on what others think, we study respect in a labor market context where the length of the employment relationship is endogenous. In our three-stage gift-exchange experiment, the employer can express respect by giving the employee costly symbolic rewards after observing his level of effort. We study whether symbolic rewards are used by the employers mainly to praise employees or as a coordination device to build relational contracts by manipulating the balance between labor demand and supply in the market. We find that a high proportion of long-term relationships have been initiated by the assignment of symbolic rewards. However, the assignment of symbolic rewards decreases when it becomes clear that the relationship is durable, suggesting that employers mainly use symbolic rewards as a coordination device to initiate relational contracts. Compared to the balanced market condition, assigning symbolic rewards in initial relationships is less likely when there is excess demand in the market and more likely when there is excess supply, i.e., when the relationship is more valuable. Receiving symbolic rewards increases the employees’ likelihood of accepting to continue the relationship with the same employer. It also motivates them to increase their effort further but only when the market is balanced. Overall, the ability to assign symbolic rewards does not give rise to higher profits because it is associated with lower rents offered to the employees on average, leading to lower effort levels.     

Innovation, cycles and growth

The purpose of this paper is to present a model of growth with endogenous fluctuations. The main feature of our model is that it throws light on the relationships between long waves and business cycles in the economy. The driving forces in the model work in this way: endogenous R&D investment creates new cumulative knowledge. When this knowledge reaches a threshold H*, radical innovations occur which generate productivity growth via the substitution of old capital with new capital. These disruptive events appear recurrently, generating long waves and revitalizing the growth process. Short-term cycles in the model come from the interactions between these innovation-driven transformations and certain prey-predator mechanisms that involve the labor market. We find that our model presents excellent properties: the model generates endogenous cyclical growth as a disequilibrium process; persistent and irregular short cycles appear interwoven with the long waves; and there is a strong significant interaction between both kinds of fluctuations.     

Skilled Immigration and Wages in Australia*

This paper investigates the impact of the relative growth of skilled migration on the structure of Australian wages. Unlike conventional approaches, the present study uses macro data to examine the response of wages to immigration flows. We use instrumental variable techniques to control for the potential endogeneity of immigration. The results, using alternative estimation strategies, are consistent with the dominant findings from existing empirical work. There is no robust evidence that a relative increase in skilled immigrants exerts any discernible adverse consequences on the wage structure in Australia.     

UNIQUENESS AND INDETERMINACY OF THE EQUILIBRIUM GROWTH PATH IN THE UZAWA‐LUCAS MODEL WITH SECTOR SPECIFIC EXTERNALITIES*

We introduce sector specific external effects of human capital on production in an otherwise Uzawa‐Lucas model of endogenous growth; and show that the problem of indeterminacy of the competitive equilibrium growth path does not exist even if the production function satisfies the increasing returns to scale at the social level.     

The Intergenerational Effects of Paternal Migration on Schooling and Work: What Can We Learn from Children's Time Allocations?

This paper explores the short-run effects of a father's U.S. migration on his children's schooling and work outcomes in Mexico. To get around the endogeneity of paternal migration, I use individual fixed effects and instrumental variables estimation (FEIV) where the instrumental variables are based on U.S. city-level employment statistics in two industries popular with Mexican immigrants. Overall, the estimates suggest that in the short-run, children reduce study hours and increase work hours in response to a father's U.S. migration. Decomposing the sample into sex- and age-specific groups suggests that this is mainly driven by the effects of paternal migration on 12-15 year-old boys. These results are consistent with a story in which the immediate aftermath of a father's migration is one of financial hardship that is borne in part by relatively young children.     

Growth with endogenous migration hump and the multiple,dynamically interacting effects of aid in poor developing countries

We show empirically that aid given to poor developing countries enhances growth and reduces emigration, once several dynamically interacting effects of aid are taken into account in a system of equations. We estimate equations for net immigration flows as a share of the labour force and Gross Domestic Product Per Capita (GDPPC) growth and also for all their regressors including remittances and official development aid. We use dynamic panel data methods for a sample of poor countries with GDPPC below $1200 (2000), for which aid is about 9.5% of GDP. The partial effects in these regressions are working against each other. Therefore, we integrate all equations into a dynamic system and run a simulation. One result is an endogenous migration hump with several peaks. In a counterfactual simulation, we double aid with the consequence that for more than a 100 years migration is reduced and the GDPPC is enhanced, because the positive effects of aid on investment and education dominate the negative direct effects of aid on growth and the unfavourable effects on savings, tax revenues and labour force growth.     

Migration,community networks and welfare in neoclassical growth models

This paper proposes a Ramsey-Like model of growth with endogenous migration to study the effects of migration networks on the macroeconomy and welfare of hosting economies. In the model, migration is assumed to be made of two different components: a first, forward-looking component in which the rate of net migration depends on the wage gap between countries; a second, backward-looking component in which in-migration depends on the immigration history of the destination country through the formation of immigrant networking. We find that the model exhibits a unique saddle-path steady-state equilibrium and that introducing pro-immigration policies aimed at enhancing community networks have asymmetric impacts on the welfare level of natives and immigrants that hinge on the relative size of immigrant communities.     

A NOTE ON “A ONE‐SECTOR NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL WITH ENDOGENOUS RETIREMENT”: EXISTENCE OF MULTIPLE STEADY STATES*

This note extends Matsuyama's 0–1 endogenous retirement choice model to the framework with continuous endogenous retirement choice to study the consumption‐saving decision and capital accumulation in an overlapping generation model. The conditions for the existence of multiple steady states have been derived. In contrast to the 0 or 1 labour choice, the partial retirement may be a stable steady state under the continuous endogenous retirement choice in the second period. And this implies that partial retirement may be a stable optimal choice. Also, we find that the retirement choice depends on the initial capital stock when there are multiple steady states.