Outsourcing of Services and the Productivity Recovery in U.S. Manufacturing in the 1980s and 1990s

Manufacturing productivity growth recovered during the 1980s and 1990s, while other sectors, particularly services, did not. In the same period U.S. manufacturing has engaged in the “outsourcing” or “contracting-out” of service functions. Has the recovery of manufacturing been accomplished by industrial reorganization--sloughing off sluggish services--rather than technical progress? We analyze this question by reducing service inputs to their consituent elements of material inputs. Service productivity growth is thus imputed to the goods sectors, reducing the recovery of manufacturing productivity growth in the 1980s by one fifth. The recovery lasted through the 1990s, when high productivity performers in manufacturing have been relatively successful at outsourcing sluggishservices.

     

Productivity gaps and capacity utilization in the manufacturing sectors of five OECD-countries, 1963–1982

The purpose of this paper is to apply some novel features in the theory of productivity indexes to the measurement of productivity gaps. It advances the proposition that one reason for the persistence of productivity gaps might be that the methodology of measuring gaps does not separate shifts of the production function due to intercountry efficiency from shifts due to intercountry differences in capacity utilization.In this paper we calculate productivity gaps for four OECD countries relative to the U.S., adjusted for cyclical variations in capacity utilization for the period 1963–1982. The theoretical foundation of our measurement is based on a variable cost function approach with short-run fixity of capital. Without adjusting for differences in capacity utilization within the countries, productivity gaps are a mixture of differences in productivity and in capacity utilization.The refereeing process of this paper was handled through C. Morrison.     

U.S. productivity in agriculture and R&D

This paper examines the impact of R&D on multifactor productivity in the U.S. agricultural sector over the 1910–1990 period. We use the Bennet–Bowley indicator to measure agricultural productivity based on a multiple output-multiple input technology. We demonstrate the relationship between the price dependent Bennet–Bowley indicator and the Luenberger productivity indicator which is constructed from directional distance functions without requiring price information. These performance measures are dual to the profit function which arguably makes them especially useful in the agricultural setting. We employ time-series techniques to investigate the effect of R&D on the pattern of productivity growth. We find that we cannot reject the presence of a cointegrating relationship between the two series and that productivity growth in the U.S. agriculture responds positively to R&D expenditure with a lag of between four and ten periods.

一种新的考虑全要素生产率的成本函数估计法

研究目标：探索全要素生产率异质性对成本函数模型估计的影响。研究方法：简要归纳出各类成本函数族和基于半参数法的生产函数改良思路,将以往用于生产函数估计的Olley-Pakes（OP法）运用到成本函数估计中,构建了一个基于半参数估计的成本函数计量模型。研究发现：通过与最小二乘法、固定效应、随机前沿的回归结果对比发现,OP法用于估计成本函数能够在一定程度上控制同步性问题以及样本选择偏差问题,并能测算与分解企业间异质的全要素生产率。研究创新：通过改良成本函数估计方法以控制全要素生产率的异质性和同步性问题。研究价值：对该方法论的探讨有助于成本函数在经济统计、计量经济模型估计、政策效应评估等领域的推广与改良。     

Decomposing hospital productivity changes, 1985–1988: A nonparametric Malmquist approach

Annual data on U.S. hospitals from 1985–1988 are evaluated by ownership type—profit, nonprofit, state and local government, and U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA)—for changes in hospital productivity over time. Distance functions are used to measure Malmquist indices of productivity change, which are then decomposed into indices of efficiency change and technology change. In contrast to previous studies using this approach, we allow for variable returns to scale and use both input and output orientations. We find that changes in technology dominate changes in inefficiency in determining changes in productivity.     

New techniques in the measurement of multifactor productivity

This article outlines procedures for adjustment for characteristics of the production structure which are typically ignored in productivity growth computations but affect the correct valuation of inputs and outputs. There are many such characteristics, including changes in the terms of trade and fixity of factors, but only one appears to have much impact on productivity fluctuations: imperfect competition in output and input markets. To illustrate this, traditional and adjusted productivity growth indexes based on assumed markups are constructed for the U.S., Canadian and Japanese business sectors for comparison with each other and with other adjustments done in previous studies. The methodology is based on finding shadow values of all domestic and traded outputs and inputs to use to evaluate the contribution of each to profits. We find that evidence of markups suggests adjustments in traditional measures that are quite significant and which tend to smooth both cyclical and time trends in productivity growth.The refereeing process of this paper was handled through M. Denny.     

Adapting Productivity Theory to the Quadratic Cost Function. An Application to the Spanish Electric Sector

In this article we have adapted productivity analysis to the case of a cost model using a quadratic cost function and discrete data. The main theoretical result is a productivity index that can be decomposed into modified versions of the contribution of technical change and the effect of the variations in the scale of production. This framework has been applied to the study of the Spanish electric sector from 1985 to 1996, during which relevant regulatory changes were introduced in order to increase productivity. For this, a normalized quadratic cost function was estimated. The results show important productivity gains with both technical change and scale effect playing important roles.     

Relative productivity growth and the secular “decline” of U.S. manufacturing

There has been considerable debate about the causes of the “decline” of U.S. manufacturing over the post-war period. We show that the behavior of employment, prices and output in manufacturing relative to services over this period can be explained by a two-sector growth model in which productivity shocks are the only driving forces. Household preferences turn out to play a key role in our model. The data are consistent with a specification where households are unwilling to substitute goods for services (the estimated elasticity of substitution is statistically indistinguishable from zero), so the economy adjusts to differential productivity growth entirely by re-allocating labor across sectors.     

Analysis of regional productivity with capital as a quasi-fixed factor

Most existing studies of regional productivity growth do not incorporate the effect of variations in capacity utilization on changes in output. By failing to do so, their factor productivity estimates are biased. To overcome this shortcoming, we adjust multifactor productivity growth measure for changes in capacity utilization. Our technique recognizes that capital is a quasi-fixed factor which implies that capital in the short run can be either under- or over-utilized by a firm. Our results from 1974 to 1978 show that capacity adjusted multifactor productivity growth measure exceeds capacity unadjusted multifactor productivity growth measure for the nine census divisions. The bias in the capacity unadjusted measure of multifactor productivity growth is approximately 8 percent in East North Central and over 33 percent in Mountain. We find that the aggregate factor productivity growth is slowest in the traditional manufacturing belt (Middle Atlantic and East North Central divisions). The level of aggregate factor productivity in the manufacturing belt, however, is almost 33 percent higher than in regions in the south.     

Does pay affect productivity or react to it?: Examination of U.S. manufacturing

There may be a bi-directional relationship between wages and labor productivity. According to conventional theory, employers reward improvements in productivity by raising pay. It also has been argued that wage increases can provide an incentive to improve productivity. This study applies a technique by Geweke to identify the feedback between pay and productivity in U.S. manufacturing. For the 1949–1998 period, measures of directional feedback indicate that both “pay as reward” and “pay as incentive” behaviors have occurred, but the results vary across manufacturing subsectors.     

The impact of productivity adjusted deviations from PPP on the U.S. inbound FDI: Evidence from Japan, U.K. and Germany

In this paper, we investigate the degree to which productivity adjusted deviations from PPP influence the U.S. inbound FDI. Our results show a significant negative relationship between productivity adjusted misalignments and the U.S. inbound FDI from Germany and the United Kingdom in the short-run, and a positive relationship in the long-run. Hence, indicating that a positive misalignment—undervalued U.S. dollar—leads to a decrease in the U.S. inbound FDI in the short-run and to an increase in the long-run. No significant evidence is found for Japan. Interestingly, unadjusted real exchange rate changes show no statistically significant relationship with respect to the U.S. inbound FDI. The authors thank the reviewers for their insightful comments.     

International Leadership in Productivity at the Aggregate and Industry Level

Since many policies affect specific parts of economies differently, it is useful to decompose GDP per capita differences across countries into differences across smaller and smaller parts of economies. In this paper, we summarize recent contributions in this area and fit them together into a decomposition procedure for GDP per capita differences. The overall finding is that the U.S. is the productivity leader for the most of the economy. Moreover, international productivity differences at the aggregate level of the economies are in most cases translated into differences in the productivity of industries, at least compared to the productivity leader U.S. The variability of productivity differences at the industry level is, however, substantially higher than any differences at the aggregate or sector level. For the manufacturing sector alone the U.S. and Japan share the leadership on the industry level. In contrast, France, U.K., and Germany exhibit almost no leadership in productivity at the industry level. Hence, nation-specific factors appear to be dominant in the comparison of European countries with the U.S. Finally, mix differences do not play a very large role for big countries. For Germany, however, the mix effect can help to reconcile relative high productivity for the market economy and lower productivity at disaggregated levels.     

Estimating Radial Measures of Productivity Growth: Frontier vs Non-Frontier Approaches

In this paper, we propose an alternative econometric framework for estimating and decomposing productivity change that does not require a distribution for inefficiency or the uncorrelatedness between inefficiency and the regressors. We develop our methodology for the input-oriented radial measure of productivity change and establish that this equals the negative of the time change in the log cost function. Our econometric framework is based on a fixed-effects, multiple-output cost frontier, where we decompose productivity change into discrete shifts in the frontier and changes in firm efficiency levels relative to the frontier. We also show that the standard non-frontier specification is nested within our frontier model and thus can produce different estimates of productivity change. Using a panel of twelve US railroads from 1951 to 1975, our estimated cost frontier suggests average annual productivity growth of roughly 0.3 percent, with efficiency change rising then falling over the period. Specification tests reject the non-frontier model, which yields smaller gains in productivity.     

A nonlinear multivariate error components analysis of technology and specific factor productivity growth with an application to the U.S. Airlines

This study outlines a nonlinear model of technology and specific factor productivity growth and uses the model to analyze a new panel of sixteen domestic carriers in the U.S. airline industry over 35 quarters from 1970.I to 1978.III. We outline mapping procedures which allow construction of the production surfaces implied by the translog cost function used in our analysis. To our knowledge this study is the first to estimate such a general nonlinear multivariate error components model using full-information maximum likelihood.     

The duration of contract strikes in U.S. manufacturing

This paper develops new evidence on the hazard function for strike duration, and on cyclical changes in this function, using data on contract strikes in U.S. manufacturing industries. A flexible duration model is estimated, and it is found that the hazard rate is generally a U-shaped function of strike age. The level of industrial production is found to have a significant positive effect on the hazard rate: strike duration is countercyclical. A convenient parametric model of heterogeneity and duration dependence is introduced, in which the logit of the hazard rate is a polynomial function of strike age, up to a random individual effect drawn from a beta distribution. Estimates of this ‘beta-logit’ model indicate that it is difficult to detect the influence of unobserved heterogeneity on the aggregate hazard function for strike duration.     

Achieving factory automation through Group Technology principles

This article illustrates the use of Group Technology (GT) principles for integrating the various elements of Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM). Several observations are made regarding the current state of batch manufacturing in the U.S. in light of these principles. Following a brief historical background, the various elements of GT are described as they occur in the manufacturing cycle. Since the main prerequisite to GT is part family identification, the various classification and coding systems for identifying part families, and also non-codification systems, are briefly described.The benefits of design rationalization and variety reduction are then explained in the context of CAD, CAM, and CAPP. Next, cellular manufacturing, currently the major problem area in the U.S. regarding GT, is discussed. The discussion includes new production technologies and concepts such as economies of scope. Materials management and operation scheduling are discussed next, highlighting the GT/MRP interface. The effect of GT and other new technologies on quality is then addressed and the significant impacts here are noted. Next, the effects on related areas such as personnel and accounting are described, including worker satisfaction, incentive schemes, and cost tracking.Last, an assessment of the current status of batch manufacturing is undertaken. Academic approaches, as well as industry crusades such as just-in-time (JIT) production, are reviewed and the current problems in adopting cellular layouts are addressed.     

Performance pay and changes in U.S. labor market dynamics

A shift in the design of labor compensation occurred at around the mid-1980s in the U.S. and deals with an increased role of performance pay in driving the cyclical movements of wages. Using a DSGE model we show that this structural change accounts at least qualitatively for many observed changes in the U.S. labor market dynamics. It generates the disappearance of the procyclical response of labor productivity to non-technology shocks and the reduction of the contractionary effects of technology shocks on hours. Moreover, it is conducive to a drop in the volatility of output, a parallel increase in the volatility of wages and to changes in unconditional correlations consistent with what documented in the U.S. between the pre- and post-1984 periods.     

The potential of group technology for U.S. manufacturing

Group Technology (GT) is an innovative approach to batch production which seeks to rationalize a variety of aspects of the conversion process by recognizing and exploiting the underlying sameness which exists among component parts, end items, raw materials and so forth. The majority of GT applications, however, focus on identifying and capitalizing on component part similarities. The central theme of GT when applied to this class of items is the formation of part families based on design or manufacturing similarities (or both).Although the basic principles of GT were described and applied overseas as early as 1950, it is only in the past ten years that any significant and sustained U.S. interest in GT has surfaced. In an effort, first, to determine the status of GT use in the U.S. and, second, to provide some insights as to the desirability of GT for U.S. manufacturers, data was collected on twenty U.S. firms known to use this innovation. A fifteen page questionnaire was employed to gather information on (1) the characteristics of these firms which use GT, (2) the ways in which GT has been applied at these companies and (3) the costs and benefits of these GT programs. The results of this survey, described below, provide an overview of GT practices in a sample of U.S. firms and indicate the potential usefulness of this innovation for a broad spectrum of U.S. manufacturers.The survey responses indicate that GT is a multifaceted tool which can be applied to a variety of problems in a variety of industrial settings. GT has been adopted by both large and small installations involved in the manufacture of metal items produced in small to medium quantity lots. Although no applications were identified outside metal working, the range of metalworking industries in which GT had been implemented is quite broad. Universally, GT was adopted in response to a particular problem or set of problems. Frequently, the need to curb excessive lead times motivated firms to introduce GT.In terms of implementing and using GT there were a number of interesting findings. First, the survey results confirm that GT is more than cellular manufacturing. In fact, the most popular application of GT was in manufacturing engineering, particularly as an aid in rationalizing the process planning function. Seventy-five percent of the firms had used GT in manufacturing engineering, while fifty-five percent had set up one or more production cells and an equal number had applied GT to product design. A second interesting finding was that, for the majority of firms, informal procedures for identifying and grouping similar items (i.e. by visual inspection or informed judgement) proved inadequate for pursuing GT applications. Consequently, eighty-five percent of the respondents noted that formal classification and coding schemes had been used to aid in identifying and exploiting item similarities. The survey also yielded interesting results with respect to the problems encountered in implementing GT. The firms reported that regardless of the type of application (i.e., product design, manufacturing engineering or cellular manufacturing), human resistance to change was the most serious impediment to successfully introducing GT. This obstacle could be surmounted, in most instances, by GT education and by involving those affected by GT as early in the implementation process as possible. A number of other problems specific to the type of GT application were also noted. With regard to the relative ease of implementing GT in various areas, the respondents generally agreed that establishing cells is fraught with more difficulties than are GT applications in manufacturing engineering or product design.With respect to costs and benefits, 85% of the firms reported that the actual benefits from GT met or exceeded their anticipated benefits. Specific savings frequently mentioned included reduced lead times and easier preparation of process plans. Costs for planning the GT program and for purchasing additional computer hardware and software were the most commonly cited GT-related expenses. In terms of prerequisites for success in implementing GT, the overwhelming majority of respondents agreed that two elements are essential. The first is GT education for all those (managers, supervisors and line personnel) who are affected by the changes that accompany GT's introduction. The second critical factor is top management's commitment to GT principles and support for the personnel involved in directing the GT efforts.Thus, to the extent that the firms included here are representative of a broader spectrum of U.S. manufacturers, one can conclude that in the presence of top management encouragement and a commitment to GT education, batch manufacturers involved in metalworking and facing any of a variety of problems could benefit from putting into practice GT principles.     

Technical efficiency and region The U.S. manufacturing sector 1972–1977

In this paper we estimate the extent of technological bias in an interregional context for U.S. manufacturing during the period 1972–1977 using a factor augmenting production function approach. We present estimates of the elasticity of factor substitution for each of the 48 states in the sample using a variable elasticity of substitution production function. Next, we use these estimates to generate estimates of the rates of change in the efficiencies of capital and labor inputs and compare these estimates across states and census regions. We also examine and compare estimates of total factor productivity across states and regions. We ,find that the average annual rates of growth of capital efficiency during the period are 5.5 percent in the Northeast, 5.3 percent in the Northcentral, 5.6 percent in the West and 3.1 percent in the South. The rates of change of the efficiencies of labor are found to be negative across all regions except the South. The rates of change of total factor productivity are found to be 1.7 percent in the Northeast, 2.3 percent in the Northcentral, 2.4 percent in the West and 1.7 percent in the South. We also find that between 33 percent and 56 percent of the growth of output across regions is due to technical progress.     

Sequential Malmquist Indices of Productivity Growth: An Application to OECD Industrial Activities

The paper applies both the standard DEA methodology with contemporaneous frontiers and DEA with sequential frontiers to study changes in productivity and efficiency in manufacturing for a sample of eleven OECD countries over a twenty-year period. It uses a decomposition of the industrial Malmquist productivity indices to locate the sources of productivity growth: 'technical progress' and 'catching up.' The alternative indices are interrelated in a unifying framework that provides an interpretation to their difference. We argue that for manufacturing industries, in which technological regress is unlikely to occur, DEA with sequential frontiers provides a more adequate measure for the contribution of technical changes than standard DEA.