Climate Change Policy Options for Asian Economies: Findings from an Integrated Assessment Model

This study outlines potential futures for the global economy through the 2050 with a specific focus on the countries of Asia. With underlying assumptions about population and output growth, a baseline scenario assesses the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and the ensuing impacts on the climate. Under the baseline scenario, Asia's high growth leads to a strong rotation in global output and emissions by the year 2050. The analytical framework traces back the changes in temperature to economic damages – limited to the agricultural sectors. Parts of Asia are likely to see much higher dependence on food imports as a consequence of these damages. Various carbon tax scenarios are implemented to assess the potential for reducing carbon emissions. Because of the structure of their economies, Asian countries are likely to bear the greatest burden in reducing emissions in an efficient global tax scheme, but there is significant scope to ease this burden through financial transfers.     

中亚国家区域经济合作现状及发展缓慢的原因分析

鉴于对外贸易和区域经济合作对本国经济增长和可持续发展的重要性,中亚五国纷纷发挥各自的自然资源优势,将发展外向型经济和加强对外贸易作为经济发展战略,但总体上说,中亚区域经济合作还较为分散,尚未形成合力。中亚国家政治诉求和经济利益目标不同,相互间贸易量小且投资很少,导致中亚经济体内部经济联系减弱,加之西方大国的利益角逐和对“主权”的敏感性,这些都减缓了中亚区域经济合作的进程。     

从开放宏观的视角看环境污染问题:一个综述

在全球化背景下,伴随着国际间的要素流动,环境问题越来越多地被赋予了全球化的内容。本文将环境与增长、环境与贸易、环境与就业、环境与人口迁移等研究文献纳入到一个开放宏观分析框架中,通过文献研究发现,国际分工使"南—北"之间存在了多纬度的"环境不平等":首先,环境与经济增长问题先后经历了三个发展阶段,即罗马俱乐部提出的"增长极限说"、环境库兹涅茨曲线假说、贸易与环境库兹涅茨曲线假说相关性的争论。随着研究的推进,环境与增长问题越来越类似于一枚硬币的两面,难以同时兼得,但是,由于国际分工模式的差异,发展中国家却为发达国家提供了"污染储藏地"。其次,虽然环境规制使企业损失了部分"棕色"就业,但是环境保护同样能够创造"绿色"就业,然而,在国际分工背景下,环境保护是否有利于发展中国家的整体就业还存在着争议。最后,环境恶化已经导致一些国家出现了"环境难民"以及随之而来的人口迁移。到2050年,全世界由气候变化引起的人口迁移很可能达到5千万至7亿。然而,穷国和富国的环境压力和迁移能力却不尽相同,从某种程度上,这也是国际分工产生的间接影响,但是,关于这一问题的研究还十分有限。     

Environmental performance,corruption and economic growth: global evidence using a new data set

This study investigates the relationship between environmental performance, corruption and economic growth using panel data of 87 countries covering the period from 2002 to 2012. The Environmental Performance Index is used for the first time to evaluate the environmental quality on economic growth. By employing both ‘static’ and ‘dynamic’ panel models, we find that environmental performance is positively related to economic growth and is more significant in non-Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) countries. Moreover, when corruption is incorporated, the empirical estimation results indicate that although lower corruption helps economic growth in non-OECD countries, the negative coefficients of the three interactive terms show that the positive effect of environment performance on economic growth will drop, while greater environmental performance combined with natural resource abundance inevitably leads to inefficient bureaucracies and hence disadvantageous economic growth. As a result, policymakers in non-OECD countries should carefully ensure better government quality when they exhibit strong environmental performance so as to avoid any disadvantageous impact upon economic growth.     

TOWARD A REGIONAL EXCHANGE RATE REGIME IN EAST ASIA

Abstract.  Deepening market-driven economic integration in East Asia makes intraregional exchange rate across the region increasingly desirable and necessary. The paper suggests that East Asia's emerging economies begin to choose a currency basket as a monetary policy anchor to enable all East Asian currencies to collectively appreciate vis-à-vis the US dollar, while maintaining intraregional rate stability, in the event of surges of capital inflows or a rapid unwinding of global payments imbalances. Following this initial step, East Asia may agree on more rigid intraregional exchange rate stabilization schemes through, for example, an Asian Snake or an Asian Exchange Rate Mechanism.     

Economic growth and financial development in Asian countries: A bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis

This study using Kónya (2006) [Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling 23, 978–992.] method of bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis, which considers the issues of cross-sectional dependency and slope heterogeneity among countries investigated simultaneously, analyzes the causality between financial development and economic growth among ten Asian countries surveyed during period 1980 to 2007. We find that the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth is sensitive to the financial development variables used in the ten Asian countries examined in this work. Moreover, our findings support the supply-leading hypothesis, as many financial development variables lead economic growth in some of the ten Asian countries surveyed, especially in China.     

Initial endowments and economic reform in 27 post-socialist countries

This study explores how initial endowments at the start of transition have shaped reform outcomes and reform trajectories in 27 former communist countries in Europe and Central Asia. Countries of the former Russian Empire that had a large resources sector at the start of transition underperformed other countries in terms of the speed and the depth of economic reforms. The effect is particularly strong for privatization, enterprise restructuring and competition policy. Within country, Ottoman or Russian provinces that had a large natural resources sector in 1989 have a lower share of entrepreneurs and of small and medium sized enterprises today and also experience endemic corruption. Our results indicate that the propensity, or ability, of special interest groups to capture the reform process that would erode their rents were facilitated by the quality of institutions whose foundations go back centuries; and that the effects on the local economy are real.     

Interactions between electricity generation sources and economic activity in two Nord Pool systems. Evidence from Estonia and Sweden

The interactions between electricity sources and industrial production in Estonia and Sweden are analysed based on monthly data. The availability of data defines the time spans from January 2010 to September 2015 for Sweden and from April 2010 to December 2014 for Estonia. These countries are particularly interesting to study because of their dissimilar generation mix. Estonia’s generation mix is based on oil shale, while Sweden’s is based on nuclear plants and hydroelectricity. In short, both countries’ energy mixes are based on endogenous natural resources. The ARDL model was applied, allowing the long-run and short-run effects to be captured. The results prove that economic growth is sustained by natural endogenous resources. Estonia should continue to improve the usage of renewable energies, using fossil sources in support, in order to reduce emissions and to meet international environmental commitments. Sweden should promote the efficient usage of various renewable sources.     

资源环境约束下的和谐增长与制度和谐

经济增长对自然资源消耗和环境污染是不可避免的,然而,当经济增长对自然资源与环境资源的需求超过其承载力的阈限时,就会出现由于资源枯竭与环境恶化的非和谐增长.在对和谐增长相关理论进行梳理的基础上,以我国经济增长对资源、环境的超"阈限"影响为背景,分析"三重失灵"对和谐增长的影响,并将和谐增长纳入制度和谐的框架内,试图从制度约束上探讨长期和谐增长的保障机制.     

Trade Agreements and Trade Opportunities: A Flexible Approach for Modeling Australian Export and Import Elasticities

Patterns of trade have changed enormously over the last 30 years, particularly due to the economic emergence of several Asian countries. With the increasing international tendency for bilateral preferential trade agreements, it is important for countries to be aware of trade substitution possibilities. This paper estimates import and export price elasticities for Australia and its major trading partners in Europe and Asia, 1958 to 2002, using a fully flexible version of the Symmetric Normalized Quadratic aggregator function. Imports and exports are disaggregated into six regions, covering 17 countries. Our results illuminate the (changing) substitution and complementarity patterns for Australian foreign trade, highlighting trading opportunities in the face of a changing international environment.     

Joining Global Production Networks: Experience and Prospects of India

Cross‐border dispersion of different stages/slices of the production processes within vertically integrated global industries (“global production sharing”) has been a key structural change in the global economy in recent decades. This paper examines India's experience with exploiting opportunities created by this phenomenon for export expansion from a comparative East Asian perspective. The analysis reveals that India has so far failed fitting into global production networks in electronics and electrical goods, which have been the prime movers of export dynamism in China and the other high‐performing East Asian countries. The findings of this study provide further support to the case for completing the unfinished reform agenda, encompassing both trade and investment policy reforms, and “behind‐the‐border” reforms. There is also a strong case, based on the experiences in East Asia and elsewhere, for combining further reforms with a proactive investment promotion campaign to attract multinational enterprises engaged in global production networks.     

A Vision for Australia: Indicators from Singapore

This article suggests that Australia could benefit from observing more closely Singapore's current development strategy. The production of labour intensive manufactures primarily by foreign firms and for export formed the core of Singapore's successful economic advance in the 1960s and 1970s. While a factor endowment strength—comparatively cheap labour—lay behind this achievement, the Singapore government actively supplemented this strength by creating a business environment highly favourable to the needs of foreign investors.
With full employment and rising wage levels since then, Singapore lost its comparative advantage in the production of low wage manufactures to other East Asian countries. Recently, its development has been based more on created than inherited advantages. The Singapore government argues that the resources crucial to sustained per capita income advance in middle and higher income countries are not natural resources but rather information, technology, investible funds, research and development (R&D) spending and professional people. Singapore aims to develop its business environment to attract such resources to Singapore.
The government's vision for Singapore is a nation where the share of professional and highly skilled manpower in the workforce rises over time. This employment goal informs the government's approach to all policy matters: infrastructure development, education, urban development, microeconomic reform, taxation, fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policy, support for manufacturing and service activities, and attitudes to foreign investors.
By comparison with Australia, Singapore has a very level playing field. The government sees no conflict between intervening to attempt to create competitive advantage while vigorously pursuing microeconomic reforms to make the playing field in Singapore still more level.     

Natural resources, capital accumulation and the resource curse

Early concern by economists for the effect of natural capital on economic growth gave way to complacency and neglect during the nineteenth century. Evidence has emerged, however, that since the 1960s the economic performance of low-income countries has been inversely related to their natural resource wealth. This relationship is not a deterministic one so policy counts. SEEA can help improve the policy and performance of resource-abundant low-income countries by reinforcing the rationale for the sound management of natural resources and also by providing an index of policy sustainability in the form of the net saving rate. This policy index, along with other measures such as a capital fund for sterilizing the rent, initiatives to increase the transparency of rent flows and the rigorous evaluation of alternative uses of additional public sector revenue can improve the efficiency by which natural resource rent is transformed into alternative forms of capital to sustain rising social welfare. Chad and Mauritania provide case studies to illustrate how SEEA and net saving can be used to diagnose policy failure and improve economic performance.     

论资源环境优化产业升级——以战后日本产业结构调整为例

本文以日本战后重化工产业结构调整为例,分析日本通过节能环保成功促进产业升级的要素与经验。二战后日本的产业结构和资源环境保护,以1973年为分界点,呈现出"重工业、轻环保"、"重环保、促发展"前后两个阶段的不同特点。在70年代,面对产业结构偏重,环境污染问题凸显的背景下,日本以节能环保为目标,通过实施环境一体化产业政策、调整投资结构、提高公害治理投资比重;调整能源结构、提高清洁能源比重;调整出口贸易结构,出口产品向知识密集型产品过渡;强化环境立法、促进企业减排;鼓励节能环保科技研发等综合手段,促使产业结构向知识密集型、环境依存度较低的产业结构调整,并促进传统产业升级。日本经验对现阶段我国制定产业结构调整政策、转变经济增长方式具有极其重要的借鉴意义。     

Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia

Trade openness, high savings rates, human capital accumulation, and macroeconomic policy only accounted for part of the 1965–1990 growth performance in East Asia. Subsequently, demographic change was shown to be a missing factor in explaining the East Asian growth premium. Since 1990, East Asia has undertaken major economic reforms in response to financial crises and other factors. We reexamine the role of the demographic transition in contributing to cross-country differences in economic growth through to 2005, with a particular focus on East Asia. We highlight the need for policy to offset potential negative effects of aging populations in the future.     

The hydroelectricity consumption and economic growth in Asian countries - evidence using an asymmetric cointegration approach

ABSTRACT

This study examines the four commonly tested hypotheses in hydroelectricity consumption – economic growth literature for 12 Asian countries. Our results from a recently developed hidden cointegration technique uncover rich and significant relationships between negative and positive components of the variables under consideration. In particular, we find evidence to support the neutrality hypothesis in five countries (Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines, and Thailand), the growth hypothesis in four countries (India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan), and both growth and conservation hypotheses in three countries (China, Malaysia, and New Zealand). These findings suggest that appropriate economic policies should be elaborated on the basis of the country’s specific hydroelectricity consumption–growth nexus. Finally, our new evidence suggests that the lack of stable relationship between hydroelectricity consumption and economic growth documented in previous studies for some of these countries could be due to the failure to properly account for the nonlinearity property in the data.     

The Political Economy of Growth in Latin America and East Asia: Some Empirical Evidence

This article examines the historical records of poor economic performance of Latin America compared to East Asia's relative success in the 1970s and 1980s. Although both regions adopted similar postwar protective inward-oriented development strategies, their experiences and economic outcomes diverged significantly in subsequent years. Some have argued that East Asian countries outperformed Latin American ones because they implemented appropriate policies that were adaptive to changes in the global market scene. This study shows that the respective sociopolitical and institutional environment of the two regions was also an important factor contributing to their economic outcomes. A growth model augmented with policy-driven and sociopolitical variables is developed. Using data for selected countries in both regions, the results confirm the hypothesis of a negative direct (efficiency) effect of sociopolitical instability on growth, with an additional indirect (accumulation) effect through investment, irrespective of a country's location. Policies adopted by governments, particularly to control inflation and foreign indebtedness and to enhance economic freedom and human capital accumulation, appear crucial for stability. Such policies influenced economic performance through both the direct and the indirect channels. (JEL B25 , E13 , F43 , H19 , O57 )     

崛起与转型的政治经济学：基于中国的经验研究

当前我国滥觞于内生性能源、资源的刚性约束和外源性的政治竞争与安全压力,国际社会潜在的丛林竞争规则,大国兴衰沉浮的历史经验警示,和平崛起战略的顺利实现与否势必首先寄望于国内市场经济导向型改革与体制转型战略的成败。为增长而竞争的财政分权和晋升激励成为中国政府推动经济增长的动力源泉,它有助于增进转型初期的经济增长和资源配置。在晚近荣辱浮沉的历史湍流中,在沉淀了师从苏俄与欧美发展模式的喧嚣之后,必须注意防范现有自由资本主义发展模式的制度性痼疾。中国的体制改革和宪政转型不能是邯郸学步式的凌空虚蹈,考量东亚的国家规模、社会传统与发展共性,权衡中国历史与现实的经济、制度、文化与意识形态,运用法治规则一市场机制,培育柔性威权一善治和谐社会的国家也许是较为现实的理性选择。     

Spillovers to low-income countries: importance of systemic emerging markets

This article documents the expanding economic linkages between low-income countries (LICs) and a narrow group of ‘Emerging Market (EM) leaders’ that have become major players in international trade and financial flows. VAR models show that these linkages have increased the share of growth volatility that can be attributed to foreign shocks in LICs. Dynamic panel models further analyse the impact of LIC trade orientation and production structure on the sensitivity to foreign shocks. The empirical results demonstrate that the elasticity of growth to trading partners’ growth is high for LICs in three out of the five regions: Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe and Central Asia. However, for commodity-exporting LICs in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, terms of trade shocks and demand from the EM leaders are the main channels of transmission of foreign shocks