放松管制背景下的电信竞争政策

一、竞争的价值 新古典经济学将完全竞争视为符合"帕累托最优"的市场结果。这时,由消费者剩余和生产者剩余所决定的经济福利达到最大,生产和消费同时达到最优,因此,完全竞争被视为一种理想的市场结构,对它的任何偏离都可能导致福利的"净损失"     

电信企业经营风险种种

在计划经济体制下,由于电信的垄断经营,电信市场供不应求,企业根本不担心产品的销售,企业生产经营不存在风险。如今我国电信市场环境发生了巨大变化,电信市场竞争愈演愈烈,市场需求不断变化,信息通信技术日新月异,这客观决定了我国电信企业再不能像以往一样高枕无忧了,市场经营客观存在较大的风险,企业若不能有效控制风险,必将对企业发展带来不可挽回的损失。因此,在当前市场环境下,研究和把握我国电信企业市场经营风险,无疑对促进我国电信企业健康发展具有重要意义。     

The competitive effects of line-of-business restrictions in telecommunications

We review the original rationale for the line-of-business restrictions faced by the RBOCs and discuss changes in the conditions that motivated them. These changes include: (1) reduced incentives for local exchange carriers (LECs) to shift costs from unregulated to regulated businesses; (2) improved deterrence and monitoring of discrimination in providing network access; and (3) recognition that antitrust laws apply to abuse of market power in local exchange. We also analyze trends in prices charged by RBOCs and other LECs which suggest that the opportunity to engage in cost shuting is of little or no significance today. We conclude that eliminating the remaining line-of-business restrictions is not likely to raise significant new competitive concerns but consumers are likely to benefit from entry by RBOCs into now-prohibited businesses, many of which are highly concentrated.     

Modelling multinational telecommunications demand with limited data

Forecasting the diffusion of innovations in the telecommunications sector is a constantly recurring problem for national providers. The problem is characterised by short data series making the estimation of model parameters unreliable. However, the same innovation will be diffusing simultaneously in other national markets, although with a different start date. The use of this cross-sectional data in constructing innovation diffusion models is investigated here. Four models for pooling the cross-sectional data are described and two diffusion models are discussed although only one, the Gompertz model is used throughout. Three innovation data sets are used in the evaluation of the models: digital cellular telephones, ISDN connections and fax connections. The pooled diffusion forecasts proved to be more accurate in several comparisons relative to a naïve benchmark and to individual forecasts when available.     

A flexible logistic growth model with applications in telecommunications

In this paper, we develop a four-parameter generalization of the logistic growth curve, the flexible-logistic (FLOG) model. It is shown that the FLOG model is sufficiently general to locate its point of inflection anywhere between its upper and lower bounds: it can offer wide variation in its degree of symmetry for a given point of inflection. Although additional parameters always produce a better within-sample fit. the specific flexibility introduced by the FLOG class of models emphasises the forecast properties by controlling the saturation level and the approach to that level. The model is subjected to a number of theoretical and empirical tests and is applied to three sets of telecommunications data.     

Scale efficiencies in US telecommunications: An empirical investigation

In this paper we evaluate scale efficiency patterns of local operating companies in the US telecommunications industry. Scale efficiency is defined as the ability of each company to operate as close to its most productive scale size as possible, and is calculated using data envelopment analysis. The analysis of scale efficiencies is conducted for a set of 39 local operating companies, over six time periods: 1975, 1978, 1981, 1984, 1987 and 1990. During these time periods, several technical and institutional changes took place in the industry which are likely to have had an impact on the abilities of the companies to exploit feasible scale efficiencies, and we find that scale efficiencies have steadily increased over these time periods. We also establish that the Bell operating companies are no different from the independent companies in their ability to be scale efficient; single-state firms are relatively more scale efficient; line digitization, during the periods studied, has not significantly impacted scale efficiency; and firms belonging to multi-company parents are more scale efficient. Additionally, policy regime changes, such as the introduction of intra-LATA toll market competition and incentive regulation schemes, have positively impacted firms' abilities to attain scale efficiency, while micro-segment competition in local markets have, so far, not had the expected impact.     

Between Regime Fragmentation and Realignment: Irish Industrial Relations in the 1990s

The future of European industrial relations systems has been discussed in the literature in terms of either ‘inter-regime competition’, or progressive ‘intra-regime fragmentation’. Within the context of this debate the article examines developments in Irish industrial relations during the 1990s. The impact of fragmentation on attempts to realign Irish industrial relations practices and institutions in support of a ‘high road’ national competitive and industrial strategy is examined.     

通讯运营商内网终端安全管理平台设计

文章根据某通讯运营商内网终端的实际安全与保密要求,讨论了终端安全管理平台的总体设计,并对接入控制、网络安全接入认证、内网资源管理等做了简要介绍。     

Urban telecommunications: A new planning context1

A number of emerging communications technologies are posing opportunities for urban and community development. Due to the complexity of these technologies, particularly of their market and regulatory implementation, a planning context is outlined for the resolution of some of the issues their advent is generating.Focusing on cable television, the paper points out how this technology could affect public services, land use and political life. It then suggests several motivating factors for the initiation of public planning activity in telecommunications. The paper ends by discussing overall criteria for the design of large-scale telecommunications systems as well as how planning responsibilities in this area might be allocated.     

Deterring predation in telecommunications: Are line-of-business restraints needed?

We analyze whether lifting the remaining line-of-business restraints in the Modified Final Judgment (thus permitting the Regional Bell Operating Companies to provide interLATA calling services and to manufacture equipment) would plausibly lead the RBOCs to practice predatory pricing. We assume throughout that the regulated portions of the RBOCs' business would be subjected to price-cap or similar incentive-based regulation and that equal access to bottleneck services would be enforced. Despite employing a very broad definition of predation, we find that it is highly unlikely that the RBOCs would profitably engage in predatory pricing.     

通讯运营商内网终端安全管理平台设计

文章根据某通讯运营商内网终端的实际安全与保密要求,讨论了终端安全管理平台的总体设计,并对接入控制、网络安全接入认证、内网资源管理等做了简要介绍。     

电信客户信用评价实证分析

文章主要立足于客户长期价值提升的思想,基于定性和定量结合的层次分析法建立电信企业的客户信用评价指标体系,重点分析了个人用户的信用评价指标体系的建立过程,最后给出了数据实证分析。     

Competition in long-distance and telecommunications equipment markets: Effects of the MFJ

The Modification of Final Judgement (MJF) is now 10 years old. The MFJ was a historic change in US antitrust policy and in telecommunications policy. Pre-divestiture AT&T was divided into a single company, AT&T, which was allowed to compete in long-distance markets, telecommunications equipment markets and (with some delay) information service markets. Seven regional Bell Operating Companies (RBOCs) were permitted to provide local service and nearby long-distance service. However, the BOCs were not permitted to enter the three markets reserved for AT&T. In 1991 the Information Services restriction was eliminated for the BOCs. However, the ban on provision of (interLATA) long distance and equipment remains. The policy experiment was quite interesting since no other nation has followed the USA, despite numerous other countries ending the formerly monopoly status of their telecommunications provider. In this paper I evaluate how competitive the remaining markets reserved for AT&T, and from which the BOCS are banned, have become. I conclude that (interLATA) long-distance market for residential and small business users, by far the largest fraction of users of long distance is currently uncompetitive. AT&Ts prices are constrained by FCC regulation, not by competition. AT&T has market power and is exercising market power. For equipment markets, I find a good deal more competition. However, I conclude that the BOCs could not impede competition in long distance and that removal of the MFJ restrictions would be pro-competitive. Thus, I conclude that removal of the MFJ estrictions on the BOCs would be pro-competitive, would increase economic efficiency, and would improve consumer welfare.     

Factors affecting the use of e-government in the telecommunications industry of spain

e-Government has become one of the most important keywords for the public sector reform with proponents claiming that it guarantees transparency; Accountability; Interface with citizen; Business; And other local and national administrations. Few, if any, studies have investigated the factors that might contribute to the integration or implementation of e-Government in business; Particularly SMEs. This paper examines the relative importance and significance of company size; Business performance and three types of information communication technology on the use of e-Government through an empirical investigation of 321 businesses in the Spanish Telecommunication sector using a multinomial logistic regression. The main conclusions are that there is a significant lack of use of the internet for e-Government by SMEs and that any use of e-Government is significantly affected by the size of business and the extent of use of information communication technology within the business. Although the targets set by the Eu for e-government might be achieved it is unlikely that many businesses will take advantage     

A hybrid system-identification method for forecasting telecommunications product demands

A crucial challenge for telecommunications companies is how to forecast changes in demand for specific products over the next 6 to 18 months—the length of a typical short-range capacity-planning and capital-budgeting planning horizon. The problem is especially acute when only short histories of product sales are available. This paper presents a new two-level approach to forecasting demand from short-term data. The lower of the two levels consists of adaptive system-identification algorithms borrowed from signal processing, especially, Hidden Markov Model (HMM) methods [Hidden Markov Models: Estimation and Control (1995) Springer Verlag]. Although they have primarily been used in engineering applications such as automated speech recognition and seismic data processing, HMM techniques also appear to be very promising for predicting probabilities of individual customer behaviors from relatively short samples of recent product-purchasing histories. The upper level of our approach applies a classification tree algorithm to combine information from the lower-level forecasting algorithms. In contrast to other forecast-combination algorithms, such as weighted averaging or Bayesian aggregation formulas, the classification tree approach exploits high-order interactions among error patterns from different predictive systems. It creates a hybrid, forecasting algorithm that out-performs any of the individual algorithms on which it is based. This tree-based approach to hybridizing forecasts provides a new, general way to combine and improve individual forecasts, whether or not they are based on HMM algorithms. The paper concludes with the results of validation tests. These show the power of HMM methods to forecast what individual customers are likely to do next. They also show the gain from classification tree post-processing of the predictions from lower-level forecasts. In essence, these techniques enhance the limited techniques available for new product forecasting.     

Forecasting international telecommunications traffic by the data translation method

In forecasting the future international telecommunications traffic for individual countries, a global international view may provide a better long-range view of future trends rather than one based on observing individual countries separately. We propose a data translation method to achieve this. The method properly translates the traffic data per person for a group of countries along the time axis and ‘joins’ them together to form a single logistic or exponential forecasting curve. A necessary and sufficient mathematical condition for the method to be applied is given. Estimation of these curves is then considered. Forecasts are briefly shown for the telephone and telex examples, which demonstrate the improved accuracy that can be achieved relative to simple models based on individual country's trends.