Sustainable development. With or without mankind?

The author challenges the conventional wisdom that the main risk to Western development is environmental degradation caused by mankind. Concern over the greenhouse effect and global warming have more to do with millenium fever than reality. There is still very little evidence to suggest that these environmental phenomena result from human activity. What we do know is that there have been major cyclical fluctuations throughout history. The author cautions against implementing ‘scientistic’ policies in the face of such doubts, just because it is trendy to do so.     

The priorities dilemma in the EU preventive restructuring directive: Absolute or relative priority rule?

The EU Directive on Preventive Restructuring Frameworks gives the EU Member States (“MSs”) the choice between implementing two fairness rules in cross‐class cram‐down: the US‐style absolute priority rule (“APR”) or the newly conceived relative priority rule (“RPR”). This article argues that there is no good reason for the MSs to implement the RPR in domestic law. While the APR effectively protects the rights of the dissenting classes to get what they are entitled to, the RPR increases moral hazard and opportunism. Also, it might make debt investments in the EU unattractive. On top of that, this article shows that the RPR lacks a clear theoretical justification. One of the main reasons why the RPR was introduced in the Directive alongside the APR is that the RPR was thought to provide a solution to some of the APR's problems. This article considers three of those problems (i.e., the “valuation problem”, the “hold‐out problem” and the “problem of the relevant shareholders”) and explains the reasons why the RPR is not an appropriate solution for these. Among these three problems, the most troublesome one, from the perspective of the EU, is that the APR makes it difficult to award value to the equity of SMEs (the “problem of the relevant shareholders”). This article argues that using the RPR to deal with this problem would incentivize the shareholders to behave opportunistically and to orchestrate the restructuring. Instead of the RPR, this article suggests two alternative techniques which MSs can enact to better address the issue: the new value exception “in kind” and the disposable income method.     

New development: Breaking out or hanging on? Internal audit in government

Public audit is in transition. On the one hand, professional organizations claim it is time ‘to break out’ and develop new roles for auditors that ‘add more value’. On the other hand, critics are concerned about public sector accountability deficits necessitating more control and urging auditors to hold on to their traditional role. This article discusses tensions and relevance between these positions and their implications for auditing in government. The article will help policy-makers in their strategic decision-making on the role and focus of internal audit in government.     

Islamic banking: Interest-free or interest-based?

A unique feature of Islamic banking, in theory, is its profit-and-loss sharing (PLS) paradigm. In practice, however, we find that Islamic banking is not very different from conventional banking. Our study on Malaysia shows that only a negligible portion of Islamic bank financing is strictly PLS based and that Islamic deposits are not interest-free, but are closely pegged to conventional deposits. Our findings suggest that the rapid growth in Islamic banking is largely driven by the Islamic resurgence worldwide rather than by the advantages of the PLS paradigm and that Islamic banks should be subject to regulations similar to those of their western counterparts.     

Payday lenders: Heroes or villains?

Does access to high-interest credit (payday loans) exacerbate or mitigate individual financial distress. Using natural disasters as an exogenous shock, I apply a propensity score-matched, triple-difference specification to identify a causal relation between welfare and access to credit. California foreclosures increase by 4.5 units per 1,000 homes after a natural disaster. The existence of payday lenders mitigates 1.0-1.3 of them, with the caveat that not all payday loans are for emergency distress. Payday lenders also mitigate larcenies (but not burglaries or vehicle thefts). In a placebo test of disasters covered by homeowner insurance, payday lending has no mitigation effect.     

Breast cancer: cured or not?

Survival following treatment of breast cancer may be estimated through the recognition of various prognostic factors. The Case Study presented here calls attention to several of these factors. The reliability and relative value of these prognosticators are discussed. Recommendations are offered for the practical application of prognostic information in the determination of expected mortality.     

Derivatives Clearing Mandates: Cure or Curse?

The Dodd-Frank Act mandates the widespread adoption of centralized clearing of OTC derivatives and also includes measures designed to move more derivatives trading onto exchanges. But, as the author points out, such a clearing mandate appears to be based on the premise that the recent experience in OTC derivatives represents a major market failure and that participants in what is now the world's largest financial market have been systematically choosing the wrong institutions for risk management and trading. In this article, the author begins by explaining why all derivatives are not cleared or exchange-traded, and why the attempt to mandate such practices (as opposed to encouraging voluntary adoption through differential capital requirements) could have serious unwanted consequences. Among such consequences is a possible increase in the very systemic risk that such mandates are supposed to prevent.     

Sovereign debt auctions: Uniform or discriminatory?

Many financial assets, especially government bonds, are issued by an auction. An important feature of the design is the auction pricing mechanism: uniform versus discriminatory. Theoretical papers do not provide a definite answer regarding the dominance of one type of auction over the other. We investigate the revealed preferences of the issuers by surveying the sovereign issuers that conduct auctions. We find that the majority of the issuers/countries in our sample use a discriminatory auction mechanism for issuing government debt. We use a multinomial logit procedure and discriminatory analysis to investigate the mechanism choice. It was interesting to find that market-oriented economies and those that practice common law tend to use a uniform method while economies who are less market oriented and practice civil law tend to use discriminatory price auctions.     

Rational Risk Perception: Utopia or Dystopia?

Societal conflicts with regard to risk management are common. The public has different beliefs than many experts and administrators with regard to such issues as the citing of a repository for spent nuclear fuel or whether genetically modified organisms should be allowed to enter the human food chain. As a result, political tensions arise and there may be a skew allocation of resources for risk mitigation. The question raised in the article is if a consensus society is possible and desirable. If views converge on high risk beliefs, the cost would be very high as well. If views converge on low risks, some hazards could be neglected and environmental damage considerable, as used to be the case in the Former Soviet Union and other socialist countries which lacked a free press. A consensus society is neither possible nor desirable. No party has access to the final truth with regard to risks and hazards; diversity is an asset.     

Money Creation: Tax or Public Liquidity?

I revisit the example of non‐neutral anticipated monetary expansions used in Lucas (1995) Nobel Prize Lecture, within a broader definition of monetary policy tools, such as paying a nominal return on money or using open market operations, to show that money expansions increase output by reallocating consumption across heterogenous individuals and time periods. This result survives with noninterest‐bearing cash when the latter does not generate relevant distortions.     

The Prestige disaster: risk or danger?

The sinking of the Prestige off the coast of Galicia in north-west Spain in November 2002 was an enormous environmental disaster and it had an immense media impact both nationally and internationally, lasting weeks as a social and political phenomenon. Five days before the ship sank, the captain had reported to the maritime authorities that the old tanker was damaged and in trouble. During these five days leading up to the shipwreck, a crucial decision had to be made: what should be done with this dangerous oil tanker? Temporality is a property of the hazardous events which, after being noticed, are evaluated as imminent or deferred. This temporality makes a clear difference between a risk and a danger. Whereas the risk has time to anticipate the events, danger has just a very short time or even has no time. At this point, the Prestige disaster turns to be paradigmatic. To tow away this damaged oil tanker was a risk decision which estimated that there was still a time to prevent its running aground what meant to follow the story repeatedly told by the narrative context of risk. However, the Prestige had been spilling out oil all the time and the damage was not a probability but a fait accompli. This accident has not a risk temporality; in fact, it had not temporality at all because it demanded an immediate intervention. My conclusion here is that this crisis was managed in terms of risk when it should have been treated as a danger situation.     

Financial systemic risk: Taxation or regulation?

This paper describes financial systemic risk as a pollution issue. Free riding leads to excess risk production. This problem may be solved, at least partially, either by financial regulation or by taxation. From a normative viewpoint, taxation is superior in many respects. However, reality shows that financial regulation is adopted more frequently. This paper makes a positive, politico-economic argument. If the majority chooses regulation, the level is likely to be too harsh. If it chooses taxation, then the level is likely to be too low. Due to regressive effects, a tax on financial transactions receives low support from a majority of low polluting portfolio owners. The same kind of majority may strategically choose regulation in order to burden the minority with a larger share of the cost of reducing systemic risk.     

Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold?

A distinction is often made between short-term and long-termcapital flows: the former are deemed unstable hot money andthe latter are deemed stable cold money. Using time-series analysisof balance of payments data for five industrial and five developingcountries, we find that in most cases the labels "short-term"and "long-term" do not provide any information about the time-seriesproperties of the flow. In particular, long-term flows are oftenas volatile as short-term flows, and the time it takes for anunexpected shock to a flow to die out is similar across flows.long-term flows are also at least as unpredictable as short-termflows, and knowledge of the type of flow does not improve theability to forecast the aggregate capital account.     

Choice-based learning: lecture-based or team learning?

This study investigates choice-based learning as a choice between lecture-based or team learning in a large class at a large university in a European country. The study was designed as a between-subjects quasi-experiment where students were allocated their preferred learning approach. Data were collected for eight consecutive years (2008–2016). Based on quantitative and qualitative data, this study investigates the effect of choice-based learning on choice satisfaction, student selection and on student learning outcomes. The results show that team learning has a positive effect on learning outcomes. If students are faced with the choice, the majority select lecture-based learning. Additionally, both student groups are satisfied with their selected learning paths but selected them for specific reasons. Finally, choice-based learning provides job satisfaction for the instructors of both learning paths. These results can re-energize the ongoing discussion on why and how to engage students in learning activities.     

Stock market volatility: friend or foe?

Although a good deal of research effort has been allocated to understanding the time-series volatility of stock returns – as both market (or systematic) volatility and idiosyncratic (or non-systematic) volatility – the relationship of such volatility with cross-sectional volatility or dispersion of outcomes is sparse. Nevertheless, the quest to understand one must involve the quest to understand the other. In this paper, we investigate the dispersion of returns in relation to inter-temporal volatility, as well as the dynamic of dispersion of returns in generating a portfolio’s return outcome. We find that the level of such dispersion is highly significant for portfolio performance and the notion of risk.     

New development: Alternative reporting formats: a panacea for accountability dilemmas?

ABSTRACT

The need for accountability has given rise to new formats of reporting for public sector organizations. This article discusses the relative strengths and weaknesses of the main formats and concludes with a proposal for the adoption of an ‘Integrated Popular Report’ (IPR) to connect public sector organizations with ordinary people and encourage democratic participation in decision-making.     

Retirement income adequacy: good news or bad?

Estimating replacement rate targets, and using them to assess the current state of retirement savings adequacy, has been the focus of much attention and analysis. Building on his earlier work published in Benefits Quarterly, the author conceptually defines retirement income adequacy, estimates replacement rate targets and reviews research on the current state of baby boomers' retirement savings. He concludes that, despite existing data limitations, researchers have made considerable strides in recent years in thinking about saving for retirement and the adequacy of workers' preparation for it. These advances suggest that singular rules of thumb for replacement rates are naive and that estimates should take into account the unforeseen risks that individuals face.     

以房养老:治病良方or空中楼阁?

6月17日,中国保监会发布《关于开展老年人住房反向抵押养老保险试点的指导意见》(以下简称《指导意见》),自2014年7月1日起,在北京、上海、广州、武汉开展老年人住房反向抵押养老保险试点. 这一方式俗称“以房养老”,是一种将住房抵押与终身养老年金保险相结合的创新型商业养老保险业务.《指导意见》发布以来已引发众多争议,而以房养老能否成为我国解决养老问题的良方,一切都要用实践来检验.