The Political Feasibility of Increasing the Retirement Age: Lessons from a Ballot on the Female Retirement Age

In 1998, the Swiss voters approved of an increase in the female retirement age within the public pension system from 62 to 64. The referendum, being on a single issue only, offers a unique opportunity to explore the political feasibility of pension reforms and to apply theoretical models of life-cycle decision making. Estimates carried out with municipality data suggest that the outcome of the vote conforms well with predictions drawn from a theoretical model. Young agents, elderly and—to a lesser extent—middle-aged men favor an increase in female retirement age, while middle-aged women strongly oppose it. Richer communities and those with a high proportion of self-employed or a low fraction of blue-collar workers are more likely to opt for a higher retirement age. Ideological preferences and regional differences also play a considerable role.     

Aging and Retirement: Evidence Across Countries

How do demographic factors influence retirement? Using a large cross-country data set, I show that in countries with a larger share of elderly in their population the length of retirement is longer. This result holds true if I control for wealth effects, and when the effective labor force participation rate of the elderly is used instead of the official retirement age. Retirement policies and the social security size are strictly related: a new variable, representing the aggregate relevance of retirement policies, turns out to be significant in explaining the size of social security. Finally, the total amount of social security transfers is positively related with the increase of the elderly population, while in per capita terms this relation is not significant.     

The Double Dividend of Postponing Retirement

Early retirement seems to plague social security systems in a number of European countries. In this paper we argue that delaying retirement may have two positive effects: it is likely to partially restore the financial balance of the system, and it may foster redistribution among retirees. To obtain such a double dividend, the benefit rule of the initial social security scheme must have the following two characteristics. First, it operates redistribution within generations. Second, it is biased and induces early retirement.     

Transfers in Spanish State Retirement Pensions

A central issue in the recent reforms of state pensions in Spain has been to increase the proportionality between contributions and benefits along actuarially fair lines. The aim of this paper is to quantify the transfer component of social security retirement pensions, with transfer being understood as the difference between the pension effectively received and that which would be received under a system of actuarial fairness. The analysis is placed within a life-cycle framework, with particular reference to the distributive effects by income level. The results show that, in the past, there was a marked bias in favour of the objective of intergenerational and intragenerational redistribution, to the detriment of the objective of income insurance. This paper examines the factors that determine the final value of the transfer component within the entire Spanish pensions system.     

渐进式差异化退休年龄的决定机制、经验借鉴与政策建议

退休年龄本质上是劳动者在职期间的劳动贡献与退休后所享福利之间的均衡。公平、合理、科学的确定退休年龄,对劳动者在生命周期不同阶段(在职期间与退休之后)的福利具有十分重要的影响。借鉴我国台湾地区经验,结合大陆实际,以工作年限为基础,采用渐进式、差异化的退休年龄政策,即采取"95(99)=标准退休年龄+工作年限"的思路,在"95制"、"96制"、"97制"、"98制"和"99制"五个方案进行优选渐进,对不同类型劳动者(工种、受教育程度、性别等)应采取差异化的退休年龄政策。     

Demographic Shock and Social Security: A Political Economy Perspective

We assume that individual voters differ not only according to age but also productivity. In the steady state, workers with wages in the intermediate range join the retired persons to form a majority and vote for a positive level of social security. When a shock decreases population growth, entrenched interests can constrain majority voting decisions and prevent reforms in the name of entitlements. We show that from a Rawlsian viewpoint it may be desirable to rely on these entitlements to protect the low wage earners of the transition generations. However, when the possibility of fixing a basic pension is introduced, it constitutes a better instrument than entitlements.     

Retirement and Social Security in a Probabilistic Voting Model

Why are social security transfers associated with retirement rules? This paper focuses on the political interactions between retirement and social security. Using a probabilistic voting approach, it analyzes why old people are induced to retire in order to receive pension transfers from the young. A crucial hypothesis is that leisure in old age represents a “merit good,” which is positively valued by all agents in the society, young and old. Thus, the politicians choose to tax the labor income of the old, to induce them to retire. Retirement increases the level of ideological homogeneity of the old. In fact, once retired, the elderly are more “single-minded,” since they only care about redistributive issues, such as pensions. This increase in their political power allows them to win the political game and to receive a positive transfer from the young (social security).     

中国退休年龄的现状、问题及实施延迟退休的必要性分析

中国退休年龄基本沿用了20世纪50年代的规定,存在着退休年龄较低、男女退休年龄差距较大、提前退休较为严重等问题。从降低养老保险支付压力、应对人口红利期即将结束和增强经济竞争力等各种现实情况考虑,实施延迟退休具有必要性。但是,在延迟退休政策的制定上要通过弹性制度、自愿选择等方式,降低对社会公众的影响。     

A Review of Major Influences on Employee Retirement Investment Decisions

The recent retirement plan debacle of the Enron employees has caused regulators and lawmakers to think about new ways to protect and help retirement plan participants. When investigating participant investment decisions, researchers have traditionally studied the retirement plan characteristics and employee characteristics. More recently, some researchers have extended the analysis to social influences, such as social norms and peer affects. Others have expanded into behavioral finance and examined the role of various psychological biases. This paper combines and summarizes these four sets of influences so that researchers and policy makers can better understand all the influences affecting an employee when making retirement plan contribution and investment decisions.     

改革退休年龄的时机和方案设计——基于陕西省基本养老保险省级统筹运行效果分析

本文从陕西省养老保险省级统筹基金的运行效果入手,说明在现行制度下未来养老基金缺口较大。通过设计改革退休方案,结合未来陕西的退休人口数量,运用定量的分析手法来论证改革退休年龄方案的可行性,希望通过推迟参保职工的退休年龄来增加缴费人数、降低在职人口抚养老年人口的系数,这种减少未来养老金支付压力的做法主要是依靠退休年龄的延迟从而达到纵向的扩面,实现调整,通过循序渐进的方式来逐年缓解基金缺口。     

中国养老保险制度改革的政策选择——老龄化、城市化、全球化的视角

中国的养老保险制度改革不仅要考虑到人口老龄化的挑战,还需看到经济全球化提出的要求,以及城市化带来的机遇。本文基于详实的数据和深入的前期研究,指出中国的养老保险制度改革仍然具有一些独特的空间,包括老年劳动参与的提高,劳动生产率的提升,养老保险覆盖面的扩大,保险基金投资回报率的提高等。中国的老龄化发生在经济发展水平相对较低的阶段,在经济全球化时代,需要权衡缴费率和国际竞争力之间的矛盾。与人口老龄化相伴随的是城市化,将农村转移劳动力纳入城镇社会保障体系可以在较长时间内改变体系的负担率,同时农村老年人口绝对数量的下降,也可为政府补贴增长提供条件。长期而言,老龄化社会的养老能力根本上取决于劳动生产率的不断提高。     

Debt and Financial Vulnerability on the Verge of Retirement

We analyze older individuals’ debt and financial vulnerability using data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and the National Financial Capability Study (NFCS). In the HRS, we compare three groups of people age 56–61 in 1992, 2004, and 2010, to assess cross-cohort changes in debt over time. Two waves of the NFCS (2012 and 2015) provide additional insights into debt management and older individuals’ capacity to shield themselves against shocks. We conclude that recent cohorts hold more debt and face more financial insecurity than in the past. This will render them particularly vulnerable to forecasted interest rate increases.     

澳大利亚“安全和可持续”的国民养老金改革及启示

2009年9月澳大利亚政府颁布了＂安全和可持续＂的国民养老金改革计划。主要内容包括改革家计调查政策,提高国民养老金待遇水平,延长退休年龄,实施延长工作奖励计划等。这次改革对我国养老保障体系完善有如下启示：我国应当建立针对低收入群体的普惠制的国民养老金制度;以防止老年贫困,保障老年人最基本生活为目标;改革应注重政府调节和市场调节手段相结合;改革应兼顾不同群体利益,减少阻力。     

我国老年保障研究中的“健康老龄化”研究趋向及其价值

老年保障是面向老年人群的社会保障系统,它的健全与完善对解决我国人口老龄化所带来的相关社会经济发展问题有十分重要的现实意义。而相关政府研究则主要为老年保障建设实践提供理论支撑与决策依据。本文以"健康老龄化"为研究视角,就目前学术界有关老年保障研究中的相关研究成果和重要观点进行梳理和总结。从现有文献来看,学界已提供了较为丰富的理论和实证分析,但也还存在一些不足,尤其是未从统筹角度将健康与养老结合起来进行分析,因此今后有必要将养老与健康纳入一个系统进行综合分析,真正形成医、养间的互通互融,以期为老年保障体系的健全与完善提供理论依据。     

社会保障城乡统筹发展、地方政策革新与农民社会公民权演进——以基本养老保险制度变迁为例

中国自2002年以来推行了一系列旨在统筹城乡发展的社会保障制度革新。本文以地方基本养老保险制度变迁为例,探讨这些制度革新如何影响农民社会公民权的发展以及中央和地方在此过程中的不同角色。研究发现,农村居民的社会权利发展基于其不同的身份(职业)类型和所处地区而呈现时序、内容上的明显差别。近年来,地方政府受本地利益驱动积极打破社会保障供给的身份、职业区隔,但这些政策革新主要惠及本地农村居民。由于地方政府倾向于将权利和资源的分配限定在本辖区内,外地农村居民的社会权利受到限制,农民享受的权益存在地区间不公平。中央政府在弱化社会保障的地域边界上发挥了一定的作用,但仍需强化财政责任和统筹协调职能,促进在全国范围内形成更包容、公平的社会保障体系。     

社会保障适度水平的区域比较分析

社会保障水平最早是作为社会保障指标体系中的一个指标出现的,指在一定时期内,一国或地区社会保障支出总额占其生产总值的比重。社会保障水平的测定与研究要求准确地统计出社会保障支出总额。＂社会保障适度水平＂是指通过计算某地区社会保障支出总额Sa占该地区国内生产总值G的百分比,用该指标来衡量社会保障的基本功能是否与当地经济社会发展水平相适应。适度的社会保障水平对国民经济的发展是具有积极作用的。总的来说,我国的社会保障事业近年的发展势头良好,社会化水平不断提高,但社保支出占GDP的比重仍然过小,社会保障水平还有很大的提升空间。     

农民工社会保障对劳动力流动的影响

随着社会经济的快速发展,农民工群体规模不断扩大,流动劳动力已经成为一个特殊的社会群体,其社会保障问题日益凸显。原有的城乡分割、区别对待的社会保障制度,已经严重影响到劳动力流动的行为和方式,阻碍了城市化及农民工市民化的进程。本文主要从工伤保险、医疗保险、养老保险、失业保险、生育保险等五个方面来分析目前农民工的社会保障现状以及社会保障对农村劳动力流动迁移的影响。     

农村社会养老服务需求现状及对策的实证研究

当前我国农村社会养老服务体系建立健全问题已经成为政府和理论界普遍关注的热点问题。对河南省六个地市的抽样调查显示,在农村社会养老服务需求层次中,经济保障是农村老年人最为迫切的需求,其次是生活照料需求,医疗卫生服务需求位居第三,最后是精神服务需求。在此情况下,要建立健全的农村社会养老服务体系,就必须大力发展农村老年经济保障、加快发展农村社区居家养老、充分发挥农村基层医疗卫生机构的功能、完善农村社区卫生服务体系、加快农村社区文体活动基础设施建设。     

新型农村养老保险制度的财政负担测算——兼论“十二五”期间实现全覆盖的可行性

本研究对新型农村养老保险制度的财政负担进行了测算,研究表明：在低水平、全覆盖目标下,到2020年各级财政累计总投入可以控制在9000亿元左右,中央财政投入占到70%以上;若＂十二五＂期间提前实现全覆盖,到2015年中央财政累计投入将不超过3000亿元,地方财政累计投入将不超过1200亿元;全覆盖实现后中央财政每年投入约700亿元可以保障新农保制度运行;提前实现全覆盖不会大幅度增加未来10年财政总投入,而主要对今后几年的财政投入提出相对更高要求。＂十二五＂期间实现全覆盖总体上不会对中央和地方财政造成太大负担,但是,经济欠发达地区地方财政（尤其县级财政）分担压力不容忽视。全覆盖目标的提前实现要求＂十二五＂期间加大中央财政投入,以递增的速度提高新农保覆盖率,加大对中西部地区政策倾斜力度,引导地方政府积极配合。     

Symposium on Welfare Reform under the Labour Government: Part I,Editorial Note

This symposium arises from a one‐day conference held at the Institute for Fiscal Studies on 22 May 2002. The papers presented on that day considered the social security reforms during the first term of the Labour government from a number of perspectives. The three articles published here — and the further three that will follow in Part II of the symposium — are drawn from a broader range of disciplines than is usual for Fiscal Studies papers.