Fiscal institutions and public spending volatility in Europe

This work provides empirical evidence for a sizeable, statistically significant negative impact of the quality of fiscal institutions on public spending volatility for a panel of 23 EU countries over the 1980–2007 period. The dependent variable is the volatility of discretionary fiscal policy, which does not represent reactions to changes in economic conditions. Our baseline results thus give support to the strengthening of institutions to deal with excessive levels of discretion volatility, as more checks and balances make it harder for governments to change fiscal policy for reasons unrelated to the current state of the economy. Our results also show that bigger countries and bigger governments have less public spending volatility. In contrast to previous studies, the political factors do not seem to play a role, with the exception of the Herfindahl index, which suggests that a high concentration of parliamentary seats in a few parties would increase public spending volatility.     

The case for fiscal rules

This paper estimates the effects of fiscal institutions on fiscal policy outcomes, addressing issues related to measurement and endogeneity in a novel way. Recently developed indices, based on partially ordered set theory, are used to quantify the stringency of fiscal rules. Identification of their effects is achieved by exploiting the exogeneity of institutional variables (checks and balances, government fragmentation, inflation targeting), which are found to be relevant determinants of fiscal rules. Our two-stage least squares estimates for (up to) 74 countries over the period 1985–2012 provide strong evidence that countries with more stringent fiscal rules have higher fiscal balances (lower deficits), lower interest rate spreads on government bonds, and lower output volatility.     

民营上市公司大股东资金占用影响因素研究

我国采取金字塔控股方式的民营上市公司以实现自身利益最大化为目标,通过各种手段占用上市公司资金。针对沪深两市371家具备金字塔结构的民营上市公司的实证研究发现,大股东资金占用的影响因素主要有第一大股东持股比例、分离系数、股权制衡度、管理者持股比例和资产负债率。在ST公司和正常公司的对比分析中,发现第一大股东持股比例、股权制衡度、资产负债率和公司上市年限对大股东资金占用率的影响存在差异。     

内部控制治理逻辑:权力制衡观抑或信息观

传统的内部控制是基于权力制衡的原理构筑框架的,通过组织权力的制衡与牵制以规范权力配置及其行使,但对于权力制衡系统背后所蕴涵的信息机理和信息权保障却很少研究,以致现实中缺乏一个强有力的信息基础和传导机制.随着信息技术广泛的深入运用,极大地增加了企业内部控制的潜在风险,因而现代内部控制的治理逻辑必须从基于权力制衡观的视角向基于信息观的视角转变,重视信息作为控制的载体在内部控制中的作用.     

美国货币政策 对中国宏观经济的影响

本文研究美国货币政策对我国宏观经济的影响，从存在性检验和强度测算两个方面予以分析，运用虚拟变量刻画量化宽松货币政策的实施情况，并引入Gumbel Copula上尾相依系数来检测其波动效应的存在。实证结果不仅验证了理论分析的合理性，也证明了美国货币政策的负波动效应，以及量化宽松货币政策与传统货币政策间的协同效应。     

Electoral Rules, Political Systems, and Institutional Quality

This paper explores the links between political rules and institutional quality. The paper concentrates on two political measures: the presence of checks and balances in the political system and an index of political particularism that measures the incentives for politicians to build personal support bases. The paper finds a positive correlation between checks and balances and institutional quality. It also finds that intermediate levels of particularism are associated with higher institutional quality.     

Macroeconomic Volatility and the Current Account: Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the relationship between macroeconomic volatility and the current account. Using quarterly data for a panel of OECD economies, time-varying relative volatility measures are constructed for GDP, net output, and government consumption. The empirical evidence suggests that current account balances are positively affected by all three volatility measures. Moreover, the current account balance is found to be related positively to output growth and negatively to the growth of government consumption. Evidence from saving and investment rates also suggests that the precautionary saving motive is part of (though perhaps not the entire) mechanism that relates output volatility and the current account. Broadly consistent with the predictions of the standard theoretical model, these estimates are sizable, statistically significant, and robust.     

基金持股行为对上市公司绩效的影响——以辽宁省上市公司为例

从基金参与公司治理的动力、对第一大股东形成制衡的能力以及持有股票的偏好三方面出发,研究基金持股行为对上市公司绩效的影响,选取辽宁省上市公司进行实证研究。结果表明:有基金持股的上市公司绩效优于没有基金持股的上市公司绩效;基金持股比例越大,基金参与上市公司治理的动力和抗衡第一大股东的能力越强,对上市公司当年及下一年绩效的提高都产生了积极的促进作用;而基金持股集中度和基金共同持股行为对上市公司绩效有一定的正向影响,但不具有统计上的显著性。     

The macroeconomic effects of fiscal rules in the US states

Fiscal policy restrictions are often criticized for limiting the ability of governments to react to business cycle fluctuations and, consequently, the adoption of quantitative restrictions is viewed as inevitably leading to increased macroeconomic volatility. In this paper, we use data from 48 US states to investigate how budget rules affect fiscal policy outcomes. Our key findings are that (1) strict budgetary restrictions lead to lower policy volatility (i.e. less aggressive use of discretion in conducting fiscal policy) and (2) fiscal restrictions reduce the responsiveness of fiscal policy to output shocks. These two results should have opposite effects on output volatility. While less discretion should reduce volatility, less responsiveness of fiscal policy might amplify business cycles. We provide empirical support for the first effect: restrictions, by reducing discretion in fiscal policy, can reduce macroeconomic volatility.     

FISCAL POLICY, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY AND FINITE HORIZONS

In this paper we analyse the stabilisation properties of distortionary taxes in a new‐Keynesian model with overlapping generations of finitely lived consumers. In this framework, government debt is part of net wealth and this adds a number of interesting channels through which fiscal policy could affect output and inflation. Output volatility, in the presence of technology shocks, is not substantially affected by the operation of automatic stabilisers, but we find interesting composition effects. While the presence of finitely lived households strengthens the stabilisation performance of distortionary taxes through the reduction of the volatility of consumption, it does so at the cost of more volatile investment and real money balances.     

Private Investment and Political Institutions

Recent research has demonstrated a negative link between macroeconomic and political uncertainty and levels of private investment across countries. This raises the question whether certain types of government institutions might help reduce this uncertainty. North and Weingast (1989) propose that political institutions characterized by checks and balances can have beneficial effects on investment by allowing governments to credibly commit not to engage in ex post opportunism with respect to investors. In this paper I develop and test a modified version of their hypothesis, suggesting that checks and balances, on average, improve possibilities for commitment, but that they are not a necessary condition for doing so. Results of heteroskedastic regression and quantile regression estimates strongly support this proposition.     

Exchange Rate Volatility,Earnings Uncertainty and Bidirectional Trade Flows: Empirical Evidence on Ghana

Although the empirical findings on the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade is diverse, the growing consensus in the literature appears to suggest that for developing economies, the theoretically expected negative relationship almost always exists. The paper takes a different approach to empirically assess this relationship by analysing the impact of exchange rate volatility independently on total trade, imports and exports. The intuition behind this approach is to assess exactly how exporters and importers are incentivised (differently or similarly) by exchange rate volatility costs. Whereas adequately risk-aversed Ghanaian exporters in the presence of higher exchange rate volatility and the absence of hedging facilities effectively compensated against exchange rate risk by increasing volume of exports, import decisions were to some extent (although not effectively) negatively affected by exchange rate volatility. The different responses by Ghanaian exporters and importers to higher exchange rate volatility costs are reflected in the relationship between volatility and total trade. The useful policy lessons and the challenges that the empirical evidence present are discussed.     

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES NOW AND BENEFITS TOMORROW: HOW SOON IS TOMORROW?

This paper investigates the timing of the impact of changes in checks and balances on macroeconomic efficiency in a panel of countries. Using Battese and Coelli's one-stage approach, we find that increasing checks and balances results in greater efficiency. Furthermore, the impact of institutional changes on efficiency is delayed, with a full effect showing after five to six years. This finding remains robust after distinguishing developed and developing countries, including country-fixed effects and using alternative functional forms of the production frontier and alternative measures of checks and balances. The relation is also robust to controlling for endogeneity.     

应对资产价格波动的最优货币规则研究——基于福利损失函数的实证分析

通过构建最优货币政策模型对中国货币政策进行的实证检验,发现中国的货币政策主要以盯住通货膨胀为主要目标,同时关注产出的变化,但对股票价格波动的变化并没有给予充分的关注。而通过中国预设货币政策操作框架下对股票价格波动不同反应状况的分析,发现货币政策对资产价格赋予较小权重时,中央银行的福利损失函数将会有所改善;如果继续加大对资产价格干预的权重,则会导致中央银行福利损失函数的迅速恶化。因此可以认为,中央银行还不适宜对资产价格进行过度的关注,只适合在关注通胀和产出的基础上,对资产价格给予适度的关注。     

Inflation and inflation volatility in Thailand

Quarterly data for Thailand are used in this article for the period 1965q3–2013q4 to investigate both the relationship between inflation and inflation volatility, and the impact of inflation volatility on economic growth. Inflation volatility is estimated by deploying the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) technique. A Granger causality test is then conducted to examine the causality between inflation and inflation volatility. The empirical results obtained are consistent with a number of theoretical propositions. First, the results are consistent with the Friedman–Ball proposition, which states that a rise in inflation raises inflation volatility. Second, there is evidence supporting the Holland proposition that inflation volatility lowers the rate of inflation. This is consistent with the view that central banks attempt to stabilize inflation with the rise in inflation volatility. Third, empirical results obtained by asymmetric GARCH models suggest that inflation shocks have an asymmetric impact on inflation volatility (i.e. a positive inflation shock has a larger impact on inflation volatility – as measured by the logarithm of the conditional variance of inflation – than a negative inflation shock). Fourth, inflation volatility has an adverse impact on economic growth. Finally, given the fixed/pegged or managed float exchange rate system, US inflation has been found to have a positive impact on inflation and its volatility in Thailand. This article discusses the implications of empirical findings on the design and enactment of monetary policy for price stability in Thailand.     

Monetary policy volatility shocks in Brazil

This paper provides empirical evidence of the impact of changes in volatility of monetary policy in Brazil using a model where the time-varying volatility of shocks directly affects the level of observed variables. Contrary to the literature, an increase in monetary policy volatility results in higher inflation, combined with reduction in output. Qualitative differences of impulse responses functions are explained using a calibrated small-scale dynamic model, where the habit persistence in consumption, combined with the design of monetary policy, plays a key role in results. Firms tend to increase prices under higher volatility, in order to avoid costs of resetting over time. Working capital constraints amplify the effects of interest rate volatility shocks on prices.     

控制权配置对企业投资行为的影响研究——基于企业家注重声誉的视角

如何通过提高企业家声誉来优化企业投资行为事关我国企业的健康发展。通过构建企业投资支出的回归模型,对控制权配置与企业投资行为进行实证检验。实证分析表明,在企业家注重声誉的前提下,第一大股东持股比例与企业投资支出水平负相关,而当内部现金流充裕时,股权制衡比例与企业投资支出水平正相关。因此,可以通过建立企业家征信制度、完善充分竞争的企业家市场、确保企业家有长远预期和培育合格的市场主体等措施,提高企业家声誉,优化企业投资行为。     

Economic policy uncertainty and the Chinese stock market volatility: new evidence

This study investigates the impacts of the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indexes of China and the G7 countries on Chinese stock market volatility and further constructs a new diffusion index based on these indexes using principal component analysis (PCA) to achieve enhanced predictive ability. The in-sample results indicate that the EPU indexes of China and some of the G7 countries show a significantly negative impact on future volatility. Moreover, our constructed diffusion index also has a significantly negative impact. Furthermore, the out-of-sample results show that this diffusion index exhibits a significantly higher forecast accuracy than the EPU itself and combination forecasts. Finally, various robustness checks are consistent with our main conclusions. Overall, we construct a new and useful indicator that can substantially increase forecast accuracy with respect to the Chinese stock market.     

The relationship between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy in OECD countries: An asymmetric analysis

Interest rate changes by central banks are a strong monetary policy tool that has a significant impact on the performance of the real economy via various channels. Despite extensive theoretical and empirical studies in this area, the current literature lacks a comprehensive assessment of the relationship between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy. This study explores the link between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy for 38 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries over the period 1991–2021 using both linear and non-linear ARDL models. The use of the non-linear ARDL specification will allow for the possibility of an asymmetric effect of interest rate volatility on the shadow economy. In addition to the examination of the potential asymmetric effects, we also discuss the ramifications for policymakers with respect to monetary and financial policies while considering each country's specific economic structure.     

住房价格、消费与中国货币政策最优选择:基于异质性房价预期的视角

在异质性房价预期和流动性约束条件下,本文构建了包括家庭消费决策、企业生产决策以及中央银行货币政策决策的理论模型。在此基础上,本文采用混合的RBC-VAR方法和1998年1季度至2010年3季度的数据模拟分析了住房价格、消费和货币政策选择之间的关系。结果表明:预期房价上涨的家庭越多,住房价格波动对消费波动的影响越大;贷款价值比越高,住房价格波动对消费波动的放大效应越强,但经验证据并没有支持这种放大效应;盯住住房价格的货币政策获益很少,其在减少产出波动的同时增加了通货膨胀波动。因此,中国人民银行应遏制房价偏离均衡的上涨,尤其是房价上涨预期,但货币政策不宜盯住住房价格。