The Canadian Dairy Industry: Prospects for Future Trade

The Canadian dairy industry is heavily protected from world markets. With the coming WTO Round of trade negotiations, this protection is likely to be reduced. I review the policies and characteristics of the sector and explore the possibilities and likely effects of various policy changes. Canadian domestic milk prices are high relative to U.S. prices, because of (a) prohibitively high over-TRQ tariffs, (b) relatively small TRQ levels for dairy products and (c) restrictive domestic marketing quotas faced by individual producers. The industry trade policy position is to maintain existing policies and specifically to resist attempts to increase access to the Canadian milk product market. Industry data suggest that the Canadian milk industry has increased its competitiveness with the U.S. industry since the 1980s, largely due to the depreciation of the Canadian dollar over the period. These data suggest that a drastic reduction of protection in the Canadian industry in the next WTO Round may not result in significant increases in U.S. exports to Canada. In addition, quota market data indicate a perception of much less risk in holding these quotas compared to the 1980s, suggesting Canadian dairy farmers' confidence of continued stability in milk pricing and dairy policy in Canada. L'industrie laitière canadienne jouit d'une forte protection sur le marché mondial. Cet avantage risque d'être réduit dans laprochaine ronde de négociations commerciales de l'OMC. L'auteur passe en revue les politiques et les caractéristiques de chaque segment de la filiére laitiére et scrute les possibilités et les effets vraisemblables de divers scénarios d'orientation. Les niveaux relativement plus élevés du prix du lait sur le marché intérieur canadien par rapport aux prix américains s'expliquent a) par le niveau exorbitant des tarifs douaniers imposés aux importations excédentaires au contingent, b) aux niveaux relativement bas des contingents tarifaires des produits laitiers et c) aux contingents de mise en marché intérieur restrictifs auxquels font face les producteurs. La position du secteur laitier canadien en matière de commerce extérieur est de maintenir les politiques en place et, plus particulièrement, de combattre toute tentative d'élargir l'accés au marche intérieur canadien. À la lumière des chiffres, il appert que le secteur laitier canadien aurait élargi sa marge concurrentielle depuis les années 1980 par rapport aux États-Unis, en grande panic à cause de la perte de valeur du dollar canadien observée dans l'intervalle. Ces données laissent supposer qu'une réduction même brutale éventuelle des dispositifs de protection canadiens à la prochaine ronde de l'OMC ne provoquerait pas un accroissement significatif des exportations US vers le Canada. En plus, les chiffres du marché contingenté suggèrent qu'ily aurait beaucoup moins de risques que dans les années 1980 pour le Canada à garder les contingents, ce qui dénote que les producteurs laitiers canadiens s'attendent au maintien des orientations actuelles du Canada en matière de tarification du lait et de commerce extérieur des produits laitiers.     

Industry consolidation and price in the US linerboard industry

Starting from the 1980s, the US paper and paperboard industry has recorded an increasing degree of consolidation through mergers and acquisitions. This strategy, combined with voluntary downtime, is adopted by producers as a method to tackle excess capacity and to reduce costs in order to improve profitability. In this study, we investigate the impact of industry consolidation on price in the linerboard industry. We estimate a dynamic demand/supply system model that explicitly incorporates market structure. We find a low own-price elasticity of linerboard demand and an insignificant substitute effect of plastic containers. Additionally, linerboard price does not seem to respond to current demand and adjusts slowly across time. Moreover, industry-operating rate shows a positive, statistically significant, but small impact on price. Although those findings suggest an oligopoly market and some degree of barometric price leadership, market concentration shows no statistically significant effect on price.     

Aboriginal Labour and the Pastoral Industry in the Kimberley Division of Western Australia: 1960–1975

This paper surveys the Kimberley pastoral (or livestock) industry – historically the economic mainstay and largest employer in this remote region of Western Australia – and its relationship with Aboriginal labour, utilizing empirical material, much of which is presented for the first time. Part of the analysis reviews the labour market and employment conditions that existed during the period 1960–1968, when a significant labour shortage occurred. However, in the Kimberley (as elsewhere), beginning in the late 1960s and early 1970s, unemployment grew rapidly. Reasons for the rapid growth in unemployment, of which Aboriginals constituted the greatest proportion, included, among other things, a global downturn in commodity prices for livestock products and especially beef in this case, concentration of ownership and increased capitalization in the livestock industry, and the decision to pay Aboriginal pastoral workers award rates. The period 1960–1975 graphically illustrates the changing nature of the Kimberley pastoral industry, as well as the repercussions of global dynamics for regional economies.     

上海原油期货价格与我国新能源股价的相关性研究

选取上海原油期货和中证新能指数作为研究对象,以VAR模型为基础,分析了原油期货价格对新能源行业股价产生的引导作用,研究了上海原油期货与我国新能源行业股价的相关关系。研究结果表明:①上海原油期货价格的下跌会引起我国新能源行业股价的上涨,两者表现出反向变动;②上海原油期货价格对新能源行业股价的贡献率在不断提高,相互影响程度逐渐增强。     

江苏省邳州市银杏产业发展探讨

剖析邳州市发展银杏产业的优势,发展现状,发现邳州市银杏产业中存在银杏价格低,附加值不高,污染严重以及结构不合理等问题,并针对这些问题从资金来源、产业结构、人才建设、绿色教育等方面提出建议。     

Estimating the Extent of Imperfect Competition in the Food Industry: What Have We Learned?

Since the late‐1980s, empirical analysis has typically analysed the extent of market power in the food industry using structural econometric models drawing on an approach commonly termed the new empirical industrial organisation (NEIO). In this paper, we examine what has been learned from the use of this methodology, and consider whether it has relevance for empirical analysis of market power in food retailing, and the nature of vertical contractual arrangements between food manufacturers and retailers.     

中国苹果加工产业发展趋势分析

得益于资源优势和成本优势,中国苹果加工产业发展迅速,正由产能扩张向提质竞争过渡。综合产业发展和市场变化判断,加工产业发展的基本趋势是行业整合加快,产业布局向原料产地集中;受成本和出口价格快速增长、国际市场需求不足、贸易壁垒增强等因素影响,中国浓缩苹果汁出口约束增强。中国苹果加工产业应以转型升级为发展契机,通过行业整合、优化产业结构,建立、健全出口产品的质量标准体系和应对国际贸易壁垒的市场预警机制,积极开拓新兴市场。     

The Size and Structure of the Livestock Industry in Canada, 1980

Major changes are occurring in the Canadian livestock industry. These changes will lead to increasing emphasis on development of the Canadian feeder cattle industry, but with less rapid growth of the fed cattle sector. Continued access to low-cost cereals would benefit the cattle feeding industry, but continued grain marketing problems are seen as leading to shifts from grain to forage production.
Domestic pork consumption prospects are seen as being more attractive than those indicated by recent studies. Nevertheless, major changes seem required in order to make Canadian pork products vigorously competitive on U.S. markets.
DIMENSION ET STRUCTURE DE L'INDUSTRIE DU BÉTAIL AU CANADA, 1980 – L'Industrie canadienne du bétail est à l'heure actuelle le théâtre d'importants changements. On y observe d'abord un développement rapide de lélevage destinéà l'embouche du bétail et dans une moindre mesure de l'élevage industriel. Le fait de pouvoir disposer de céréales à bas prix pourrait avantager l'Industrie de l'alimentation animale mais les problèmes continuels de commercialisation conduisant les producteurs à préférer la culture du four rage à celle des céréales.
Les perspectives de consommation domestique de pore s'avèrent plus intéressantes que celles indiquées par de récentes études. Néanmoins, de plus grands changements semblent nécessaires pour rendre les produits du pore canadien plus compétitifs sur les marchés américains.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WORLD PRICE INSTABILITY AND THE PRICES FARMERS RECEIVE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

World prices for agricultural commodities are traditionally unstable, but they were particularly turbulent during the late 1970s and early 1980s. This paper uses available post-War data on individual commodity prices to test whether world price instability is increasing, and to examine its impact on the prices producers receive in developing countries. It is found that the recent turbulence was more a statistical fluke than the beginning of any longer-term increase in market instability. Further, while the variability in world prices has been almost entirely transmitted to developing countries in the dollar value of their export unit values, it has not been fully transmitted to average producer prices. Real exchange rates, domestic marketing arrangements and government intervention have acted to buffer price movements for producers in many developing countries.     

Gendered impacts of fertilizer subsidy removal programs in Malawi and Cameroon

Since the early 1980s, development experts and donor agencies have agreed on the importance of structural adjustment programs (SAPs) aimed at ‘getting prices right‘. Adoption of reforms were made preconditions for new loans or grants in many sub-Saharan African countries. In both Malawi and Cameroon, one such required reform was government's eliminating fertilizer subsidies to the small farm sector, previously used to increase the profitability of intensive agriculture while keeping food prices artificially low. The aim of this paper is to review fertilizer subsidy removal programs for their impact on farmers, who in sub-Saharan Africa are women. In theory, SAP programs should benefit women producers, because much emphasis is placed on renewing agricultural production and aligning farmgate prices with world prices. But in practice, will they benefit? Are SAPs gender-neutral and affect men and women equally, or merely gender-blind?     

Canadian Exports of Livestock and Meat to the United States

Canadian exports of beef and live cattle to the United States have increased significantly since the late 1980s. Hog and pork exports have increased since the mid-1990s. Major factors affecting exports of beef, pork, cattle and hogs from Canada to the United States include the exchange rate, increased Canadian production, Canada-U.S. price differentials and trade liberalization under the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement of 1989. Increased Canadian exports have resulted in small but significant reductions in U.S. domestic prices of beef, pork and hogs.     

A NOTE ON BIAS IN THE ESTIMATED EFFECTS OF BEEF IMPORTS ON U.S. MEAT PRICES

The impact of beef imports on United States meat prices is a highly emotional and controversial issue. Congressmen representing urban districts, and to a lesser extent the Administration, look towards beef imports as a way of containing rapid increases in meat prices. Congressmen and Senators from beef-producing States regard beef imports as a direct attack on the U.S. beef-producing industry. These differing views are being reconciled through Congress considering amendments to the Meat Import Law (Public Law 88-482). The impacts and the amendments are of vital interest to Australia because about 25 per cent of Australia's beef production is sold on the lucrative U.S. market. In this note it is argued that, in general, the reported impacts on U.S. meat prices are overestimates because the analysts misspecify the structure of the U.S. beef industry.     

生猪价格的省域空间溢出效应及其动态关联分析——基于空间面板模型和DY分解

目的 分析生猪价格的省际空间溢出效应,并通过各省域间价格联动效应探究我国生猪价格体系的传导机制,对治理我国生猪产业区域不均衡发展问题具有重要意义。方法 文章建立空间杜宾模型探索生猪价格的空间传导特性,引入溢出效应分解分析替代品价格、成本要素对省域生猪价格的冲击效应,并运用广义预测误差分解测定省际生猪价格关联水平及方向。结果 （1）我国生猪价格波动具有显著空间相关性和异质性,其空间集聚特征随时间推移愈发显著,产业布局呈现“高—高南部簇拥,低—低东向西扩”的空间演变特征。（2）省内替代品价格、成本要素对生猪价格波动的影响显著但作用力度有限,省际溢出效应是生猪价格发生空间传导的主导因素。（3）鸡肉价格与省内、省外的生猪价格存在密切正向关联;牛肉价格波动推动本省生猪价格同步波动;豆粕价格波动对本省或邻省生猪价格均起到正向推动作用;玉米价格变化引起本省或邻省生猪价格的负向变化。（4）辽宁、河北、吉林、河南等省的正向净关联度较大,属于波动“主导者”或“发动者”;上海、广西、重庆等省市的负净关联度较大,隶属价格波动的“接收者”;江苏、湖南、福建等省市的关联度和全国平均关联度持平,在价格波动传导体系中属于波动“中介者”。结论 有关部门应针对不同省域在生猪价格传导体系中所发挥职能的不同,分级管控生猪价格,同时促进地方畜牧业经济发展,不断优化我国生猪养殖产业区域布局。     

An Analysis of Removal of Agricultural Trade Barriers between the United States and Canada with Emphasis on the Southeast

A four-region, 23-commodity small world agricultural trade liberalization model within the SWOPSIM framework is used to measure the impact of tariff removal between the United States and Canada. The tariffs are simply defined as negative import subsidy equivalents in the model and are then removed from the trade prices. The model recalculates domestic supply and demand levels in all regions, rebalancing world trade, production, consumption and prices. In summary, the impacts of the Canada-U.S. Trade Agreement on selected commodity groups are significant. Canadian imports of beef and veal, poultry meat, soybean oil and fresh strawberries increase. Furthermore, the results indicate larger trade flows for selected products and declines in producer and consumer prices in Canada, U.S. and Southeast regions. Since the U.S. share of Canadian agricultural imports averaged 60% in the 1980s, the impact of trade liberalization will be greater in Canada in selected commodities than in the U. S. or the southeastern region, and Canadian dependence on the U.S. market will be increasing in the future. The tariff phaseout, together with a reduction in nontariff barriers and harmonizing of domestic agricultural policies, will create more export opportunities in selected commodities for both the United States and Canada, and will create the world's largest free trade market.     

PRICE TRANSMISSION IN THE UNITED KINGDOM YELLOW FATS MARKET IN THE PRESENCE OF IMPERFECT COMPETITION

The yellow fats sector comprises butter, margarine and a number of newer dairy-and low-fat spreads. In analysing the transmission of policy prices (e.g. the intervention price of butter) in this sector, which is characterised by concentrated processors and retailers, it is unrealistic to assume that marketing margins are competitively determined. The empirical estimates in this paper suggest that, since the mid-1980s, processors and retailers of margarine take into account the price of butter when setting margarine prices, which they can only do if they possess market power. This implies that the benefits of CAP reform (in the form of lower butter prices) may be seriously underestimated if the resulting fall in margarine prices is ignored; the increase in butter consumption would be overestimated.     

矿业参与宏观调控的经济法思考

矿业作为关系国计民生的重要经济和社会领域,矿产资源参与宏观经济调控应该是国土资源管理部门行使政府职能必须考虑的一个问题。从经济法律角度进行分析,可以得出当前我国矿产资源宏观调控法律规范滞后于资源可持续发展要求的结论。因此,应完善矿产资源规划、市场运行机制、价格税收、环境保护及利益分配等矿业领域的宏观调控法律规范,以促进和保障矿业可持续发展战略目标的实现。     

IMPACTS OF THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY ON INTERNATIONAL WHEAT PRICES

The emergence of the EC as a major exporter of cereals in the 1980s and the escalation of international agricultural trade confrontations emphasize the importance of understanding the effects of EC policy actions. Several important features of the EC wheat market are incorporated in an analytical and empirical model including imperfect substitutability in demand between imports and domestic supplies, the simultaneous import and export of wheat by the EC, the distinct impact of threshold versus intervention policy prices, MCAs, and the imperfect transmission between market and intervention prices. Results indicate that EC policies have a smaller impact on world price than found in previous studies.     

徐州市工业产业生态化评价

论文通过构建城市工业生态化评价指标体系,采用熵权法,对徐州市1995-2006年工业产业生态化水平进行了综合评价。结果表明,徐州工业生态化水平在稳步提高,但经济、环境和社会3要素层并非协调发展,其中社会效益提高最快,经济效益次之,环境效益的发展最为缓慢,是制约徐州工业生态化水平进一步提高的主要因素。最后,提出促进经济、环境和社会3要素层协调发展,提高徐州工业生态化水平的若干建议。     

Economic Liberalization and Smallholder Productivity in Tanzania. From Promised Success to Real Failure, 1985–1998

In the mid-1980s, Tanzania adopted a programme for economic liberalization of the entire economy, including agriculture. After pressure from the IMF and the World Bank in particular, but also from most of the bilateral donors, agricultural producer and input prices were decontrolled, panterritorial prices were abolished, subsidies were removed and trade in agricultural products and inputs was to a large extent taken over by private traders. The international donor community promised that economic liberalization would provide a strong stimulus to Tanzanian agriculture, resulting in increasing yields, increased labour productivity, rising agricultural production and higher incomes. However, available data show that, as far as food crop production is concerned, this promise has not been fulfilled. Even compared to the 'crisis years' 1979–1984, labour productivity, yields and production per capita of food grains stagnated or declined up to the end of the 1990s. Some causes of this failure are discussed.