Task Routineness and Trade Policy Preferences

Understanding the formation of individual trade policy preferences is a fundamental input into the modeling of trade policy outcomes. Surprisingly, past studies have found mixed evidence that various labor market and industry attributes of workers affect their trade policy preferences, even though recent studies have found that trade policy can have substantial impacts on workers' incomes. This paper provides the first analysis of the extent to which task routineness affects trade policy preferences using survey data from the American National Election Studies. We find significant evidence that greater task routineness leads workers to be much more supportive of import restrictions, consistent with recent evidence on how trade openness puts downward pressure on employment and wages for workers whose occupations involve routine tasks. In fact, other than education levels, task routineness is the only labor market attribute that displays a robust correlation with individuals' stated trade policy preferences. We also provide evidence that there are some interactions between the economic and non‐economic factors in our study. For example, women's trade policy views are much more invariant to their labor market attributes than men, suggesting that women's views on this issue are driven more by personal and ideological beliefs than men.     

Education-job mismatch in Ukraine: Too many people with tertiary education or too many jobs for low-skilled?

This paper examines changes in the incidence of education-job mismatch in Ukraine over 10 years and the determinants of overeducation and undereducation at the regional level, with a particular attention paid to the differences between younger and older workers. It also analyzes shifts in the occupational and sectoral structure of employment driven by technological changes and restructuring of the Ukrainian economy. A job polarization in Ukraine seems to stem from deindustrialization, expansion of subsistence farming, rapid growth of retail trade and other less-knowledge intensive services, rather than from routine-based technological changes observed in developed countries. Our results, obtained from the Hausman–Taylor panel data model, suggest that fairly high and persistent education-job mismatch results from both the supply (too many people with tertiary university education) and demand (too many jobs for low-skilled workers) factors. Taking into account that older workers are often more prone to overeducation in Ukraine than their younger peers, the major concern is that overeducation is likely to be a dead-end for many workers.     

The Political Economy of India's Economic Reforms*

This paper analyzes the history of the relationship between the state and the private sector in India. It concludes that India's economic reforms, which made development policy more dependent on international trade and private initiative, depended on the evolution of technocratic and political conviction. Reformers needed the support of financial crises for overcoming the powerful vested interests opposed to reforms. Successful reforms involved largely homegrown strategies of policy and institutional change. They have produced impressive growth rates and have benefited the rich and the middle class. The challenge for development and sustainable reforms is to make it more inclusive for poor farmers and unorganized workers.     

The effect of increases in the level of unemployement on older workers

This study explores the influence of the level of unemployment on labour force participation and full- versus part-time status, for men and women aged 56 to 60. Comparisons are also made with 16–19- and 31–35-year-old men and women. It is found that when the unemployment increases, discourgement is greater for older men than for younger ones. For Women, Prime-aged workers exhibit less discouragement than either the older or younger women. The study also infers the original labour force status of older discouraged workers. For men, displaced workers come largely from the ranks of full-time workers. For women, both full- and part-time workers are displaced.     

改革开放后的农民工政策思路变迁

改革开放以来,我国政府对农民工问题的看法、解决问题的思路和出台的相关政策都发生了很大变化。根据1979年1月至2012年12月的《人民日报》中收集到的资料,对农民工政策的变迁进行了全面的梳理,并从规范农民工管理政策、维护农民工权益政策、关注农民工家庭及生活和农民工就业政策四个方面阐述改革开放后我国农民工政策思路的变迁。     

Australia and the Pacific Economy*

The industrialization and growth of East Asian countries has shifted the centre of world trade and economic activity towards the Pacific. There has already been a huge redirection of Australia's trade and external economic interests towards the region, based importantly on the emergence of Japan as a major economic power. Australia's future economic prospects will be significantly determined by how it manages its trade policy interests in the context of continuing East Asian industrialization. The most promising Australian trade policy approach is one which allies Australia's trading interests to those of East Asian countries in seeking to maintain an open non-discriminatory trade regime, supportive of the transformation of trade specialization necessary to the industrialization of resource-deficient countries, and which marries that objective to the liberalization of her own and Pacific country markets.     

Employment Protections for Older Workers: Do Disability Discrimination Laws Matter?

Although age discrimination laws boost employment of older workers, some are exempt from age-law protection and may be better protected by disability discrimination laws. Disability laws may raise the costs of employing the disabled, however, generating mixed predictions regarding employment effects of protection by both types of laws. This study finds that employment of older disabled workers with the coupled laws is lower than those with age-law protection only; employment of the younger disabled is higher with the coupled laws. For older disabled workers, earnings of those with the coupled laws are lower than their counterparts with only age-law protection. (JEL J78 , K31 , J00 )     

Japan's New Foreign Economic Policy: A Shift Toward a Strategic and Activist Model?*

This article analyzes key departures in Japanese foreign economic policy: the development of an extensive network of free trade agreements thereby abandoning the exclusive focus on the multilateral system as the vehicle for trade liberalization, and the revamping of the official development assistance (ODA) program by slashing its budget, emphasizing national interests in aid giving, and phasing out yen loans to China. We argue that the remarkable degree of policy activism in both trade and ODA represents the Japanese government's attempt to respond strategically to common challenges: domestically the economic recession, internationally the pressure for policy convergence and competition with China. However, in both issue areas the ability of the government to embark on swift policy changes has been compromised by domestic politics: opposition from vested interests and politicization of policy‐making, bureaucratic sectionalism, and weak executive leadership. We conclude with some policy recommendations to improve the coherence of foreign economic policy formulation in Japan.     

THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF PAY-AS-YOU-GO RETIREMENT PROGRAMS: THE ROLE OF TAX AND BENEFIT TIMING

It is well known that pay-as-you-go retirement programs reduce steady-state welfare and the capital stock in dynamically efficient overlapping generation (OLG) economies. The common two-period OLG model obscures, however, the relationship between the magnitude of these effects and the ages at which taxes are paid and benefits received. Program changes that shift taxes to older workers or benefits to younger retirees have effects similar to reductions in program size, yielding steady-state welfare gains and increases in capital accumulation while imposing transition costs on current generations. This analysis has policy implications for both tax and benefit timing . ( JEL H55, E62)     

Protection and skills: Does trade policy favor low‐skill workers?

Many believe that international trade barriers in rich nations help low‐skill workers. Also, the empirical endogenous protection literature strongly implies that protection decreases with skill levels. This paper presents evidence against this conventional wisdom. Regressions based on a political economy model with search frictions and unemployment imply that protection and skill levels actually have a mound‐shaped relationship: industries with skills in the middle range get more protection than industries at either end of the distribution. Apparently, the politics of trade policy trump social concerns, rendering protection less “progressive” than is commonly believed.     

Economic consequences of an aging population

Europe and Japan are experiencing the aging of their populations. Aging implies a restructuring of the economy. Political issues which arise in an aging society include 1) a voting majority for the interests of the elderly, 2) a voting majority of females, 3) the domination of the decision power in corporate and similar ruling bodies, and 4) unemployment or a long wait for promotion for younger people. Economic issues of an aging society include 1) population aging often occurs under reduced rates of growth of per capita national income, 2) the relative economic status of the elderly very much depends on the currently existing tax transfer systems, and 3) the income of families whose head is over age 65 has generally been more unequally distributed than the income for younger families. Issues concerning the labor supply of the elderly include 1) the availability of pension income and health limitations strongly influence decisions to retire and 2) older workers become disheartened and choose early retirement when facing bad reemployment prospects. In general, population aging is likely to have its most substantive effect on the overall level of productivity in an economy where technical knowledge is changing rapidly and strong competition necessitates a high degree of adaptability of the labor force.     

Trade Liberalization and Wage Inequality: Evidence from India

We evaluate empirically the impact of the dramatic 1991 trade liberalization in India on the industry wage structure. The empirical strategy uses variation in industry wage premiums and trade policy across industries and over time. In contrast to most earlier studies on developing countries, we find a strong, negative, and robust relationship between changes in trade policy and changes in industry wage premiums over time. The results are consistent with liberalization‐induced productivity increases at the firm level, which get passed on to industry wages. We also find that trade liberalization has led to decreased wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers in India. This is consistent with the magnitude of tariff reductions being relatively larger in sectors with a higher proportion of unskilled workers.     

The warren court,inequality and the poor

This paper presents a gender perspective of the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program. The TAA is the primary US policy to assist the transition of workers displaced due to trade related economic restructuring. In comparison to the relatively substantial research on gendering trade policies in developing economies there is very limited focus on gendering policy responses to trade in the US. We argue that there is a specific gender trend in the trade-displacement patterns in the US which calls for a gender sensitive policy response. We examine the TAA in light of this trend and offer some suggestions for a gendered approach to providing assistance to workers negotiating an increasingly flexible global labor market.     

Merger Policies and Trade Liberalisation

This paper is about the interactions between trade policy and a narrow but important aspect of competition policy, namely merger policy. We focus on links between merger policies and trade liberalisation. We put special emphasis on the topical issue of the role that international agreements such as the GATT play when merger policies are nationally chosen. Of particular concern is the possibility that liberalisation of international trade will induce countries to use competition policies to promote national interests at the expense of others.     

Do the French pension reforms increase re-employment of older unemployed workers?

ABSTRACT

The sustainability of Social Security financing has pushed authorities to reform their policy to increase the labour market participation of older workers. While most of the studies have focused on the consequences of pension reform on retirement decisions, we analyse the effects of two French pension reforms, which increased the period of contribution and the minimum retirement age, on transitions out of unemployment and into employment with a difference-in-differences approach. We find that both retirement reforms have positive effects on the re-employment of older unemployed workers. The pension reforms are also accompanied by an increase of the transitions into inactivity. The results suggest that the reforms have delivered significant effects by reducing the unemployment of older workers.     

The Stolper–Samuelson Theorem Faces Congress

The factor–industry detachment corollary of the Stolper–Samuelson theorem predicts that the economic interests of trade policy are independent of industry and depend only on the type of factor ownership. This paper examines whether congressional voting patterns on trade policy are determined by the factor endowment of the constituency or by its industrial composition. The industry model of trade policy determination is not rejected by the empirical tests while the results for the factor model are ambiguous. This provides evidence that the literature examining congressional voting patterns on broad-based trade policy should re-evaluate the maintained assumption that factors do not matter.     

WAGE SUBSIDY AND WELFARE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

This paper seeks to answer if wage subsidy to workers displaced due to trade reform raises welfare in a developing country. We use a general equilibrium model with non‐specific factor inputs and trade liberalization as a policy variable. A combination of wage subsidy and tariff rate obtains the second‐best welfare level. The theoretical result is new, policy‐relevant and important in view of political‐economy aspects of free trade in developing and transition countries.     

The evolution of wage inequality in Italy

This article analyses the evolution of inequality in yearly and daily wages between and within groups of blue and white collar, using the INPS-ISFOL database for the period 1985 to 1999 in Italy. Between-group inequality increased in the 1990s as clerical wages grew slowly, whereas blue collars' wages remained nearly constant. Within-group inequality increased only if measured by daily wages. The covariance structure analysis shows that inequality comes from persistent differentials among older workers and from high income volatility for younger cohorts. Within inequalities in office and manual workers are driven by the growth of permanency for the older cohorts (individual abilities, say experience, matter more) and by the growth of income volatility for the younger cohorts (luck in the labour market). Within each group, low paid workers during their career acquire earning gains for their abilities and reduce differentials with respect to high paid workers.     

贸易开放与性别工资差距

本文在不完全竞争市场环境下,建立贸易开放和性别工资差距的数理模型。在理论分析的基础之上,本文运用2002年中国家庭住户收入项目调查数据(CHIP)进行实证分析。在控制了年龄、婚姻状况和受教育年限等个体层面和人均GDP等城市层面的工资影响因素情形下,得出结论:贸易开放在总体上拉大了性别工资差距;贸易开放缩小了高技能劳动力的性别工资差距,拉大了低技能劳动力的性别工资差距。从某种意义上说,女性弱势群体更容易被排除在贸易开放的利益之外。因此,提高女性的受教育程度,并为之提供相应的制度保障具有尤为重要的政策含义。     

Unfinished Business

Abstract This article is about three phases in Australian trade policy: protectionism, unilateral liberalisation, and participation in regional trade liberalisation. Australia used to have one of the most protected economies in the world. The last dozen years have seen a radical transformation of Australian economic policy: Australia is in the process of becoming one of the most open economies in the world. The last five-to-ten years have also seen a related transformation of Australian foreign economic policy. This policy is now centrally concerned with promoting the process of international economic integration within the Asian region; particularly through the APEC process. Should Australia be pursuing ‘open regionalism’ in the Pacific? or promoting an Asia Pacific trading bloc? or concentrating on its own unilateral trade liberalisation? or using its energy to press for global liberalisation through the GATT? I argue that there remains a deep contradiction in the APEC process; that ‘open regionalism’ is in Australia's interests, and that the critical test of Australia's conversion to liberalisation will come in this third phase, in the future answers that it gives to these questions.